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Thread: Keith Law's first 2010 Top 100

  1. #1
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    Default Keith Law's first 2010 Top 100

    (sorry for the formatting, Insider so had to cut & paste)

    Keith Law's first 2010 Top 100

    By Keith Law
    ESPN.com
    Archive

    Here's my first ranking of the top 100 prospects for the 2010 Rule 4 draft, based on what I've seen and what I've heard from scouts thus far this spring. It's not a projection of where these players will be selected, but my assessment of their values as players. I also don't consider signability, which is largely an unknown factor at this point anyway. This list was compiled in consultation with Jason A. Churchill, who is my main co-contributor to the almost-daily MLB draft blog on Insider.

    The best by position

    Want to look at the top prospects in a whole new way? Keith has broken the top 100 down by position, showing the top five by what position they are expected to play in the pros.

    Bryce Harper remains No. 1 on my list, and I don't see anyone close enough right now to potentially unseat him. Manny Machado has a pretty strong grip on the No. 2 position over prep right-handers Jameson Taillon and Karsten Whitson, as well as big-performing left-hander Drew Pomeranz.

    It's a strong draft for right-handed pitching and for catching, and weak in the middle infield and in college bats. It's a good year to draft in the top 5, but not a great year to draft 6-20 unless some more top players pop up between now and the draft. And that may very well happen, so look for these names and the order to change quite a bit over the next seven weeks, with changes more likely as you head farther from the top of the list.




    1
    Bryce Harper
    C
    6-3
    205

    Analysis: Destroying a JC conference as a 17-year-old, he's an impact bat with a plus arm. My video scouting of Harper is located here. Feb. 19: No. 1

    2
    Manny Machado
    SS
    6-2
    180

    Analysis: Tall, athletic shortstop with a quick bat and a 70 arm. Feb. 19: No. 22

    3
    Drew Pomeranz
    LHP
    6-5
    235

    Analysis: Big lefty with subpar mechanics but a strong track record of missing bats. Feb. 19: No. 18

    4
    Jameson Taillon
    RHP
    6-5
    215

    Analysis: Unusual arm strength, up to 98 mph as a starter, but hitters see his fastball. Feb. 19: No. 3

    5
    Karsten Whitson
    RHP
    6-4
    195

    Analysis: The best command of the premium prep arms in the class, with a chance for four pitches. Feb. 19: No. 15


    6
    Zack Cox
    3B
    6-0
    215

    Analysis: Shortened up his swing to make more contact. Still needs to prove he can stay at third base. Feb. 19: No. 11
    7
    Josh Sale
    3B
    6-0
    205
    Bishop-Blanchett H.S.

    Analysis: An absolute monster physically, with hit and power tools. He plays third base now, but is probably destined for the outfield. Feb. 19: No. 9
    8
    Deck McGuire
    RHP
    6-6
    218

    Analysis: Polished college performance guy without a knockout pitch; low-risk, moderate-reward. Feb. 19: No. 4
    9
    Dylan Covey
    RHP
    6-2
    205
    Maranatha H.S.

    Analysis: May be trending down after showing reduced stuff in two recent outings. Feb. 19: No. 14
    10
    Anthony Ranaudo
    RHP
    6-7
    230

    Analysis: Performance vs. Ole Miss on Friday didn't help assuage concerns about his elbow. Feb. 19: No. 2
    11
    Yasmani Grandal
    C
    6-2
    210

    Analysis: Switch-hitting catcher with plus defense and some power potential. Scouting video of Grandal is here. Feb. 19: No. 23
    13
    Bryce Brentz
    OF
    6-0
    185

    Analysis: Returned early from foot injury and is reestablishing himself as the most well-rounded college outfielder in the class. Here's scouting video of Brentz. Feb. 19: No. 7
    14
    James Paxton
    LHP
    6-4
    220

    Analysis: Will pitch for the independent Grand Prairie AirHogs in May. Feb. 19: No. 13
    15
    Nick Castellanos
    SS
    6-4
    190
    Archbishop McCarthy H.S.

    Analysis: Among the top hitting tools among prep bats, but he'll have to move at least to third base from his current SS position. Feb. 19: No. 20
    12
    Austin Wilson
    OF
    6-4
    210
    Harvard-Westlake H.S.

    Analysis: Looks the part, with a solid swing and good makeup, but has yet to wow scouts this spring. You can check scouting video of Wilson by clicking here. Feb. 19: No. 5
    16
    Kaleb Cowart
    SS
    6-3
    190
    Cook County H.S.

    Analysis: Two-way guy (RHP/SS) has scouts looking at him on the mound and at bat, with the latter becoming more likely. Feb. 19: No. 21
    17
    Aaron Sanchez
    RHP
    6-3
    170
    Barstow H.S.

    Analysis: Quick-armed righty has steadily improved all spring, even in front of big crowds of scouts. Feb. 19: UN
    18
    Mel Rojas Jr.
    OF
    6-3
    200
    Wabash Valley CC

    Analysis: Son of the former Expo, Mel Jr. is a potential five-tool outfielder at a hard-to-see junior college. Feb. 19: UN
    19
    A.J. Cole
    RHP
    6-0
    215
    Oviedo H.S.

    Analysis: Tall, highly projectable right-hander who already touches 96 on good days. You can check video I shot of Cole by clicking here. Feb. 19: No. 6
    20
    Marcus Littlewood
    SS
    6-3
    200
    Pine View H.S.

    Analysis: Switch-hitting shortstop with outstanding hands, although some teams fear he'll have to change positions. Feb. 19: No. 25
    21
    Brandon Workman
    RHP
    6-5
    220

    Analysis: Power right-hander has seen his stuff tick back up in recent weeks, and his control has been plus this year. Feb. 19: No. 16
    22
    Alex Wimmers
    RHP
    6-2
    195

    Analysis: Curveball artist on the Cape now sporting a plus change, but will his slight build hold up as a starter? Feb. 19: No. 8
    23
    Matt Harvey
    RHP
    6-4
    225

    Analysis: One of the best college fastballs this year, but lack of a breaking ball makes him a probable reliever. Feb. 19: UR
    25
    Michael Choice
    OF
    6-1
    190

    Analysis: Big raw power, maybe best among college bats, but body probably pushes him to left field. Feb. 19: No. 47
    6
    Austin Wates
    OF
    6-1
    174

    Analysis: Can hit and run and play left field; he'll only go in the first round to a team that thinks he can play center. Feb. 19: UR
    KEITH LAW'S TOP 100: NO. 26-100
    Rank Player Pos. School VIDEO
    26 Christian Colon SS Cal State Fullerton
    27 Christian Yelich 1B/OF Westlake HS (CA)
    28 Asher Wojciechowski RHP The Citadel
    29 Kris Bryant SS/3B Bonanza HS (NV)
    30 Kolbrin Vitek 2B Ball State
    31 Kellin Deglan C Langley HS (BC)
    32 Chevez Clarke OF Marietta HS (GA)
    33 Jesse Hahn RHP Virginia Tech
    34 Kevin Gausman RHP Grandview HS (CO)
    35 Justin O'Conner C/SS/RHP Cowan HS (IN)
    36 Tyrell Jenkins RHP Henderson HS (TX)
    37 Jake Hernandez C Los Osos HS (CA) Watch
    38 DeAndre Smelter RHP Tattnall Square Academy (GA)
    39 Justin Grimm RHP Georgia
    40 Micah Gibbs C LSU
    41 Yordy Cabrera 3B/RHP Lakeland HS (FL)
    42 Robert Brantly C UC Riverside
    43 Mike Foltyniewicz RHP Minooka HS (IL)
    44 Gary Brown OF Cal State Fullerton
    45 Jedd Gyorko 2B West Virginia
    46 Brett Eibner RHP Arkansas
    47 Griffin Murphy LHP Redland East Valley HS (CA)
    48 Stetson Allie 3B/RHP St. Edwards (OH)
    49 Dixon Anderson RHP California
    50 Chris Sale LHP Florida Gulf Coast
    51 Michael Kvasnicka C Minnesota
    52 Levon Washington OF Chipola JC
    53 Taylor Lindsey SS/C Desert Mountain HS (AZ)
    54 Barret Loux RHP Texas A&M
    55 Andrew Smith RHP Roswell HS (GA)
    56 Kevin Munson RHP James Madison
    57 Ty Linton OF Charlotte Christian (NC)
    58 Vincent Velazquez RHP/C Garey HS (CA)
    59 Adam Plutko RHP Glendora HS (CA)
    60 AJ Vanegas RHP Redwood Christian (CA)
    61 Stefan Sabol C Aliso Niguel HS (CA)
    62 Seth Blair RHP Arizona State
    63 Rob Rasmussen LHP UCLA
    64 Chad Bettis RHP Texas Tech Watch
    65 Cody Buckel RHP Royal HS (CA)
    66 Will Swanner C Temecula Valley HS (CA)
    67 Chance Ruffin RHP Texas
    68 Tyler Thornburg RHP Charleston Southern
    69 Cam Bedrosian RHP East Coweta HS (GA)
    70 Leon Landry OF LSU
    71 Jordan Swagerty RHP Arizona State
    72 Mike Kickham LHP Missouri State
    73 Ryne Stanek RHP Blue Valley HS (KS)
    74 Peter Tago RHP Dana Mills HS
    75 Chad Lewis 3B Marina HS (CA)
    76 Kevin Jordan OF Northside Columbus (GA)
    77 Cole Cook RHP Pepperdine
    78 Kellen Sweeney OF Jefferson HS (IA)
    79 Dan Klein RHP UCLA
    80 Sam Dyson RHP South Carolina
    81 John Gast LHP Florida State
    82 Derek Dietrich SS Georgia Tech
    83 Jacoby Jones SS/RHP Richton HS (MS)
    84 Jordan Shipers LHP South Harris HS (MO)
    85 Robbie Aviles RHP Suffern HS (NY)
    86 Drew Cisco RHP Wando HS (SC)
    87 Donn Roach RHP College of Southern Nevada
    88 Jason Adams RHP Blue Valley NW HS (MO)
    89 Cody Wheeler LHP Coastal Carolina
    90 Kevin Ziomek LHP Amherst Regional (MA)
    91 Scott Frazier RHP Upland HS (CA)
    92 Tommy Kahnle RHP Lynn
    93 Gabriel Encinas RHP Saint Paul HS (CA)
    94 Luke Jackson RHP Calvary Christian HS (FL)
    95 Matt Lipka SS McKinney HS (TX)
    96 Dave Filak RHP SUNY-Oneonta
    97 Seth Rosin RHP University of Minnesota
    98 Pat Dean LHP Boston College
    99 Tyler Burgoon RHP Michigan
    100 Garin Cecchini IF Barbe HS (LA)

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    We will choose the best "value" of course

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    101 Lawrence "Tubby" Whitaker RHP Fargo High School, ND

    RHP 5'11" 245lbs.

    Analysis: Big raw appetite. Hungry for a taste of MLB. 87MPH fastball matched only by love of chinese buffet.

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    With any luck the O's will take a value high school pick so they can "spread their risk" by taking injured players for massive amounts of money late in the draft.

    This "spread the risk" strategy guarantees that the O's will get more mediocre AND more injured players thereby satisfying fans of injuries and mediocrity.

    I have to hand it to the fans of losing. Coming up with a name for the "strategy" of completely wasting high draft picks is brilliant. Most people would just think the FO was stupid, but naming the "strategy" gives it some legitimacy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dshawg1 View Post
    We will choose the best "value" of course
    And pitchers of all talent levels possess more value than even the strongest of hitters, because of the fact that they are pitchers. We'll continue to say that we'll "buy the bats" even though the only bats worth buying are out of our range anyway.

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    Gotta go with Manny Machado. SS is a desperate position of need after choosing to skip Grant Green last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghost Oriole View Post
    With any luck the O's will take a value high school pick so they can "spread their risk" by taking injured players for massive amounts of money late in the draft.

    This "spread the risk" strategy guarantees that the O's will get more mediocre AND more injured players thereby satisfying fans of injuries and mediocrity.

    I have to hand it to the fans of losing. Coming up with a name for the "strategy" of completely wasting high draft picks is brilliant. Most people would just think the FO was stupid, but naming the "strategy" gives it some legitimacy.

    I, for one, would welcome mediocrity

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    Quote Originally Posted by jabba2 View Post
    Gotta go with Manny Machado. SS is a desperate position of need after choosing to skip Grant Green last year.
    Gotta look at lists other than Law's. Go O's.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dude View Post
    Gotta look at lists other than Law's. Go O's.
    Agreed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dude View Post
    Gotta look at lists other than Law's. Go O's.
    Machado is on another list i've seen as a top 5 pick. And the Orioles are in dire straights for position players. He might even be an "easy sign" for a top 3 pick.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghost Oriole View Post
    101 Lawrence "Tubby" Whitaker RHP Fargo High School, ND

    RHP 5'11" 245lbs.

    Analysis: Big raw appetite. Hungry for a taste of MLB. 87MPH fastball matched only by love of chinese buffet.
    Ah, Ghost, I continue to read your posts precisely for gems like these. I disagree completely with pretty much everything you say, particularly when it comes to Hobgood, but you come up with a good one every now and again.

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    Here's the top12 from BA updated on 21 APR.

    1. Bryce Harper, c, JC of Southern Nevada
    2. Jameson Taillon, rhp, The Woodlands (Texas) HS
    3. Drew Pomeranz, lhp, Ole Miss
    4. Karsten Whitson, rhp, Chipley (Fla.) HS
    5. Dylan Covey, rhp, Maranatha HS, Pasadena, Calif.
    6. Deck McGuire, rhp, Georgia Tech
    7. Anthony Ranaudo, rhp, Louisiana State
    8. A.J. Cole, rhp, Oviedo (Fla.) HS
    9. Manny Machado, ss, Brito HS, Miami
    10. Josh Sale, of, Bishop Blanchet HS, Seattle
    11. Chris Sale, lhp, Florida Gulf Coast
    12. Christian Colon, ss, Cal State Fullerton

    I guess I'd rather have Green/Taillon than Hobgood/Machado.

    We'll see. Go O's.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jabba2 View Post
    Gotta go with Manny Machado. SS is a desperate position of need after choosing to skip Grant Green last year.
    He will not be ready in three or four years if you draft him this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cb coach View Post
    He will not be ready in three or four years if you draft him this year.
    Agree, it's just tough for a HS SS to make the quick jump.

    Look at Tim Beckham...he's the guy I really wanted to fall to the Orioles that year and he'd have to be considered way more talented than a Machado, but he's Beckham's still years away.

    I guess I wouldn't hate a Machado signing, but I have no near-term expectations (4-5 years) like I would for Grant Green (2 years).

    Go O's.

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    get a player out of college it has worked better for us lately
    Wieters,Matusz
    opposed to High Schoolers we signed, Rowell,Snyder,Loewen...so on

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    Who's #375? I want to get a look at who MacPhail will take with the O's first pick.

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