Legitimate analysis: Why it makes sense to trade anyone with 3 or less years left.

[Slidemaster]

So, all dooming and glooming aside (don't worry cheerleaders, I'll be back to that soon), I truly believe that a smart GM would trade everyone on the team with less than 3 years of team control left for prospects at this point in the Orioles eternal, groundhog day style rebuilding.

The problem(s) the team has:

1. Complete inability to find talent outside the first few rounds of the draft.
2. Inability or unwillingness to acquire free agent talent of any value.
3. Inability or unwillingness to resign the players on the team who still have a few years of team control left.
4. Farm system is largely barren, and the good players are buried at A ball.

The way the Orioles are positioned now, they'll continue to bring up 1-2 players a year and hope they contribute, while losing 1-2 players a year who are already contributing at the major league level, which results in treading water rather than getting over the hump. The other teams in the division will never stop being good under baseball's current model. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Jays will continue to spend, and all have better farms than the Orioles. The Rays have the best scouting and development crew of any baseball franchise on the planet. All of these teams are better run, have more talent at all levels, and will spend more money than the Orioles will. The current plan cannot work

The solution: Trade anyone still on the team with 3 or less years of team control left.

As much as we love to see our loveable try-hards lose over and over again to teams that simply have more talent, and will for the foreseeable future, the only solution is to try to stock the minor league system with so much talent that it all develops within 1-3 years of itself, and that ain't happening any time soon. Jones, Wieters, Hardy, JJ, Hammel, Gregg, Markakis, and Reynolds aren't part of the future. Don't get mad at me for saying it. It's true. Don't get attached to any of them, because none of them will be here when or if this team is ever competitive. For many of them, their value will never be higher. Wieters has consistently gotten better. Jones is coming off of a career year. Hardy is too. Markakis still has value. Reynolds improved at the plate last year. Jim Johnson is now a closer. Gregg is...well, fine, you got me there.

Trade them all. Their value is much higher now than it will be later on when they get traded anyway but only have 3 months of team control left. Here's a list of what you could reasonably expect to acquire for these guys if you sold them off:

Jones: 2 projectable major league prospects.
Wieters: 2-3 Blue chip, top 50 prospects, maybe more.
JJ: 1-2 projectable major league prospects.
Markakis: 1-2 projectable major league prospects.
Reynolds: 1 decent prospect
Hardy: 2 projectable major league prospects
Hammel: 1 mid range prospect
Gregg: A really good sandwich
Matusz: Mayo, for said sandwich (mustard if you prefer, but it's yellow store brand. Don't get greedy now).

To recap, that's a total of 10-13 guys who are very likely future major leaguers. Right now there's 2, maybe 3 in the system who fit into that category. At least this way you're giving yourself a chance to develop them all at once, instead of bleeding off talent for every prospect you bring up, which is exactly what they're about to start doing in the coming years. On top of that, you're basically guaranteeing yourself the number 1 pick for 2-3 years in a row, at least. How'd that work out for the Nats? Pretty damned well I'd say.

For a team that will not be active in free agency, and does not scout well, this is the best chance they have to catch lightning in a bottle and get a few years of a talented team before they have to blow the whole thing up and do it over again. This is the model that they have to follow, and I hope that they do. The future winning team this franchise fields will have almost none of the current roster on it. Make the best of them while they're here, and use them to turn the team into a winner 5 years from now (if everything goes right).

[dandrews]

I'd be fine with trading everyone except Wieters. Obviously I know you feel differently, but there's a very good chance you don't get a single player as good as Wieters back in any of those deals. There's a very good chance Wieters will be the best catcher in baseball at the end of the season and he's still getting better. He's tradable, but there isn't a team in the league that would give up the amount of prospects that he is worth to the Orioles

But yeah, a good GM would definitely explore trading the rest, for actual prospects nonetheless, (not guys like Tommy Hunter). Problem is we don't have a good GM. And even if he were good his philosophy is to acquire players that can help the team immediately.

You listed a lot of guys that are pretty good baseball players, meaning there IS talent on the team. They could decide to build around the decent core through free agency and trades, which seems more up Duquette's alley, but they choose to tread water in every way imaginable to get better.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that there's more than one way for this team to get better. I don't care how they get better, they just need to freaking pick one!

[Slidemaster]

I'd be fine with trading everyone except Wieters. Obviously I know you feel differently, but there's a very good chance you don't get a single player as good as Wieters back in any of those deals. There's a very good chance Wieters will be the best catcher in baseball at the end of the season and he's still getting better.

But yeah, a good GM would definitely explore trading the rest, for actual prospects nonetheless, (not guys like Tommy Hunter). Problem is we don't have a good GM. And even if he were good his philosophy is to acquire players that can help the team immediately.

You listed a lot of guys that are pretty good baseball players, meaning there IS talent on the team. They could decide to build around the decent core through free agency and trades, which seems more up Duquette's alley, but they choose to tread water in every way imaginable to get better.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that there's more than one way for this team to get better. I don't care how they get better, they just need to freaking pick one!

Agree about Wieters being the best in baseball sooner than later. However, he's the one you absolutely have to trade when his value is at his peak, because he's the one player on the team that is absolutely not going to be here no matter what happens once his contract is up. He's a Boras client, he'll be in the top 3 at his position when his contract is up, and those guys NEVER stay with the team that drafted them. He may be the best catcher in baseball the year before he's due to hit free agency, but a rebuilding team with the best player at his position is still a team that's losing 95+ games every year, and he's not doing you any good being buried at the bottom of the AL East when everyone around him with talent is gone. You've got to commit. If you trade him now, you very likely get a team's top prospect back for him, as well as two more very good prospects in addition to him. Go big or go home, I say.

He's not part of the team. He's just wearing the uniform until he doesn't have to anymore. The emotional side of things says "no, he's ours, and nobody else can have him." Logic says someone else can, will, and for our own good, should.

[dandrews]

Agree about Wieters being the best in baseball sooner than later. However, he's the one you absolutely have to trade when his value is at his peak, because he's the one player on the team that is absolutely not going to be here no matter what happens once his contract is up. He's a Boras client, he'll be in the top 3 at his position when his contract is up, and those guys NEVER stay with the team that drafted them. He may be the best catcher in baseball the year before he's due to hit free agency, but a rebuilding team with the best player at his position is still a team that's losing 95+ games every year, and he's not doing you any good being buried at the bottom of the AL East when everyone around him with talent is gone. You've got to commit. If you trade him now, you very likely get a team's top prospect back for him, as well as two more very good prospects in addition to him. Go big or go home, I say.

He's not part of the team. He's just wearing the uniform until he doesn't have to anymore. The emotional side of things says "no, he's ours, and nobody else can have him." Logic says someone else can, will, and for our own good, should.

Wouldn't be opposed to trading him but the package would have to be HUGE. I'm talking like Harper/Moore/Trout + 1 or 2 other legit prospects. I don't think any of those respective teams would do that deal.

[Slidemaster]

Wouldn't be opposed to trading him but the package would have to be HUGE. I'm talking like Harper/Moore/Trout + 1 or 2 other legit prospects. I don't think any of those respective teams would do that deal.

Probably not, but I bet you could have gotten either Moore or Trout before they came up to the bigs for what he is right now.

[ivanbalt]

If the goal is to drive away even more fans and hope to maybe win something in ten years, then the Orioles should trade away everyone. Has worked great for the Pirates.

The Orioles aren't fully committed to winning, so why should they trade away their remotely exciting players?

[hampden623]

Not happening and someone clearly needs a nap.

[Mr. Buzzcut]

If the goal is to drive away even more fans and hope to maybe win something in ten years, then the Orioles should trade away everyone. Has worked great for the Pirates.

The Orioles aren't fully committed to winning, so why should they trade away their remotely exciting players?

I have a problem discerning just what their goal is, aside from providing pension time for players like Betemit and Johnson.

[Slidemaster]

If the goal is to drive away even more fans and hope to maybe win something in ten years, then the Orioles should trade away everyone. Has worked great for the Pirates.

The Orioles aren't fully committed to winning, so why should they trade away their remotely exciting players?

In the short term you're right, but this team will never win with their current model. No team ever has. Tampa wins because they have a constant stockpile in the farm system that they're constantly restocking, and the Orioles need to duplicate that in any way they can.

And honestly, fans are stupid. Anyone at this point who is still a fan isn't going to stop because they blow the team up again, and they'll find new players to love after the current crop is gone. Winning something in 10 years is a better trajectory than what they're on now.

[Slidemaster]

I have a problem discerning just what their goal is, aside from providing pension time for players like Betemit and Johnson.

You do?

The goal is to make money for Emperor Peter.