My gut says it is still Obama's race to lose, but it is not a forgone conclusion. The economy is still in a very slow growth mode, and anything from overseas could slow that pace very quickly. The stock market is volitale and can gain one day, lose the next. Gas prices are high, but could come down, or move even higher. Instability in the mideast makes anything far from predictable. The supreme court will give a ruling on the health care mandate in June. That is unpredictable, although most analysts believe they will strike down the mandate as unconstitutional and leave the rest. All of these things, and possibly some others that are yet unseen will factor into what happens in November. Either way, all I can do is vote, and comment on my feelings. No matter who wins, it really won't change my life all that much.
Romney needs to start getting people to vote for him instead of just against Obama. Recent polling suggests that a large majority of folks who are in the Romney camp are actually voting against Obama as opposed to for Romney. Unless he can reverse that trend I don't see how he stands a chance.
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