
Originally Posted by
Byng
The problem for jrob and the other Israel Firsters is that the State of Israel is no longer the most important and decision making regional power in the Middle East and Israel albeit still an ally and a friend of the United States has less and less strategic value to the United States.
The Middle East has become a power struggle between Russia and China on one side (most of the time) and the United States on the other side.
Russia wants to be the influential super power in Syria to retain the use of Syria's Mediterranean warm water ports for its continued expansion of its Blue Water Navy and its rise back to super-power status on the back of its oil and other natural resources wealth. While China's interest in the area remains primarily commercial.
What I see possibly happening is a trade-off between the 3 super-powers (Russia, China and the United States) where Russia and China, join with the United States on solving our current problem over the Nuclear issue in Iran, while in return we (The United States) accept that Russia take the lead role in Syria to find a solution there and hence retain the use of Syria's warm water ports, while the US retains its current bases in the Gulf.
It is a win/win for the 3 super-powers in that Iranian oil continues to flow to China, (Russia does not need Iranian oil); the United States gets itself out of a War with Iran on behalf of Israel by removing the Iranian Nuclear threat, which also keeps the Gulf Oil States happy and our bases there more secure. And the Russians basically get the mess in Syria which they are more than willing to take on in return for continued use of Syria's warm water ports.
The loser of course will be Syria in that the Russians may well get rid of Assad for them but Russia will definitely want to replace Assad with either a military government or at least a combination of military and secular civilian government because there is no way an Islamist Government gets in while Russia is calling the shots!
"While China's interest in the area remains primarily commercial." - Byngo
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...decomments=yes
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In about a week, the Afghan Ministry of Mines will announce that the China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) -- the largest state-owned Chinese company -- has won the rights to develop and explore several oil fields in the Amu Darya basin in northern Afghanistan.
How was CNPC able to win a tender for such a strategic resource in a country where the United States wields tremendous influence? Amazingly, one reason is that the U.S. Defense Department, whose Task Force on Business and Stability Operations, which is charged with resuscitating the economies of Afghanistan and Iraq, designed and oversaw a tender process that played to the strengths of Chinese state-owned companies over Western private ones.
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And this article was written by -
"Alexander Benard is managing director of Gryphon Partners, an advisory and investment firm focused on the Middle East and Central Asia. He previously worked at the U.S. Defense Department. Eli Sugarman is a Truman fellow and senior director of Gryphon Partners. He previously worked at the U.S. State Department."