Olney: O's finally a draw in FA

[bmore_ken]

In 2011, the Tigers won 95 games without Fielder. In 2012, the Tigers regressed to 88 wins after paying big bucks to Fielder. It looks like minus 7 to me.

so you consider their 2011 more successful even though they didn't make the series? I'd bet every Detroit Tiger would disagree with you

[RIKMAN]

Right player, right price.

Timing is everything. Over-spending on players is as foolish as under-spending. For years, the king would spend little and when he did...would spend foolishly. I'm all for being frugal but I'd like to see a competitive team. I think DD is starting to build that...even while shopping in the independent league and other bargain bins.

[hector]

so you consider their 2011 more successful even though they didn't make the series? I'd bet every Detroit Tiger would disagree with you

After spending $23 million on Fielder, the Tigers won 7 fewer games than they won in 2011 without Fielder. In 2011, they lost in the ALCS. In 2012 with Fielder, they were swept in the World Series. Fielder and his $23 million salary was a total bust in the 2012 playoffs with his .173 BA.

[bmore_ken]

After spending $23 million on Fielder, the Tigers won 7 fewer games than they won in 2011 without Fielder. In 2011, they lost in the ALCS. In 2012 with Fielder, they were swept in the World Series. Fielder and his $23 million salary was a total bust in the 2012 playoffs with his .173 BA.

Getting to the world series is a better season than getting bounced in the ALCS. You don't get to and win the series with one player. Fielder hit .313 with 30 homers and 108 rbi for the season. We could use some busts like that. As far as playoff performance quite a few salary heavyweights in the AL laid an egg

[weird-O]

many people are confused by the impact a team payroll has on your chances to win a WS title.

a team of big name, high $$$ players will almost always get you into the playoffs. after that, it's which team plays better that game/series.

payroll doesn't buy championships. it buys an increased opportunity to join the select few who compete for those championships.

ask St Louis about the perks of getting your foot in the post season door the last 2 seasons. they were arguably the weakest NL playoff team both seasons.

[hector]

Getting to the world series is a better season than getting bounced in the ALCS. You don't get to and win the series with one player. Fielder hit .313 with 30 homers and 108 rbi for the season. We could use some busts like that. As far as playoff performance quite a few salary heavyweights in the AL laid an egg

If you agree that Fielder laid an egg in the playoffs, why do you credit his signing for the Tigers proceeding from ALCS in 2011 to the World Series in 2012?

[weird-O]

If you agree that Fielder laid an egg in the playoffs, why do you credit his signing for the Tigers proceeding from ALCS in 2011 to the World Series in 2012?

either you're not asking this question in earnest, or you have very little understanding of baseball. which of these guys do you want to be?

[Far from home]

In 2011, the Tigers won 95 games without Fielder. In 2012, the Tigers regressed to 88 wins after paying big bucks to Fielder. It looks like minus 7 to me.

Or it looks like a team that had tougher competition in 2012. The AL Central was better this season than in past seasons.
Also, the AL West had two 90+ win teams and an 89 win team, while the AL East had the same number of 90+ win teams in 2012 as the previous year.

Despite all of that, they made it to the WS lost to the biggest cheater team of 2012.

[hector]

Or it looks like a team that had tougher competition in 2012. The AL Central was better this season than in past seasons.
Also, the AL West had two 90+ win teams and an 89 win team, while the AL East had the same number of 90+ win teams in 2012 as the previous year.

Despite all of that, they made it to the WS lost to the biggest cheater team of 2012.

The O's won 93 regular season games in 2012 without Fielder. How many more games do you estimate they would have won if PA had coughed up $25million per year to sign Fielder?

[ivanbalt]

The O's won 93 regular season games in 2012 without Fielder. How many more games do you estimate they would have won if PA had coughed up $25million per year to sign Fielder?

Pretty hard to gauge considering the number of 1-run wins the Orioles racked up.

Fielder would have been a pretty significant upgrade over Reynolds.

[reg_indy]

Pretty hard to gauge considering the number of 1-run wins the Orioles racked up.

Fielder would have been a pretty significant upgrade over Reynolds.

O's won 5 more games than Detroit.....

[ivanbalt]

O's won 5 more games than Detroit.....

So you think Fielder is a downgrade over Reynolds because the Baltimore team won 5 more games than the Detroit team?

Fielder
.313 avg, .412 OBP, 30 hr, 108 rbi, 85 bb, 84 k

Reynolds
.221 avg, .335 OBP, 23 hr, 69 rbi, 73 bb, 159 k

Reynolds played in 27 less games. But I don't see how a team can be better with a guy that hit much less, got on base much less and struck out a lot more.

[hector]

So you think Fielder is a downgrade over Reynolds because the Baltimore team won 5 more games than the Detroit team?

Fielder
.313 avg, .412 OBP, 30 hr, 108 rbi, 85 bb, 84 k

Reynolds
.221 avg, .335 OBP, 23 hr, 69 rbi, 73 bb, 159 k

Reynolds played in 27 less games. But I don't see how a team can be better with a guy that hit much less, got on base much less and struck out a lot more.

I think what all this discussion shows is that spending big bucks on premium free agents is no guarantee of improved team performance in terms of wins and losses. That's because most stats are racked up in one-sided games where the extra hit, extra homer or extra RBI doesn't win the game.

Team success is determined by how well a team pitches, hits and fields when the game is on the line. Timely hits from the likes of Andino and Teagarden can win games in spite of their being anemic hitters overall while stat padding hits from the "superstars" when the game is not on the line mean nothing in terms of wins and losses.

Angelos is smart to not chase those premium priced free agents - they cost too much and contribute too little.

[weird-O]

yep, those premium FAs don't do anything for a team. just look at the O's of the past 15 years. they stayed with low salaried players and hovered near or at the bottom of the division. meanwhile, the the stupid yankees and red sox brought in great players at high prices. and what do they have to show for it. nothing but annual trips to the playoffs and a bunch of WS rings.

what a waste of money

[bmore_ken]

yep, those premium FAs don't do anything for a team. just look at the O's of the past 15 years. they stayed with low salaried players and hovered near or at the bottom of the division. meanwhile, the the stupid yankees and red sox brought in great players at high prices. and what do they have to show for it. nothing but annual trips to the playoffs and a bunch of WS rings.

what a waste of money

I can't even believe there's anyone you really have to point that out too, but it is Hector

[Far from home]

The O's won 93 regular season games in 2012 without Fielder. How many more games do you estimate they would have won if PA had coughed up $25million per year to sign Fielder?

No idea...and that's not the point of my above post.
Every team signs players according to its means and needs.

The O's have decided they aren't a means team (which I don't believe), so they have to make bargain moves and rely on luck.

Detroit has been making its own luck since 2005.

btw, I don't advocate in full building through FA - but I do think that you need to be a player some of the time for needs, and not always go the cheap route if you want to maintain your competitiveness.
See StL for a good example.

[hector]

yep, those premium FAs don't do anything for a team. just look at the O's of the past 15 years. they stayed with low salaried players and hovered near or at the bottom of the division. meanwhile, the the stupid yankees and red sox brought in great players at high prices. and what do they have to show for it. nothing but annual trips to the playoffs and a bunch of WS rings.

what a waste of money

To the extent that facts matter, let's consider the last 12 world series winners. Eight of the 12 did so without building their team around premium priced premium agents. Those 8 include Arizona, Anaheim, Florida, Chicago, St. Louis (2) and San Francisco (2). By contrast, New York, Boston and Philadelphia splurged on premium price free agents and won a total of 4 world series in the past 12 years. In other words, 2/3rds of the winners did it without wasting money on premium free agents.

Of the 3 big spenders, Boston just gave away most of their premium free agents for next to nothing. New York is desparately trying to shed payroll and get younger and Philadelphia is stuck with a couple very high priced pitchers on a team that is no longer competitive for the playoffs.

It appears that teams are starting to wake up to the obvious fact that a premium long term contract demotivates rather than motivates the player to excel. It's called human nature.

[ivanbalt]

btw, I don't advocate in full building through FA - but I do think that you need to be a player some of the time for needs, and not always go the cheap route if you want to maintain your competitiveness.
See StL for a good example.

Bingo.

[ivanbalt]

To the extent that facts matter, let's consider the last 12 world series winners. Eight of the 12 did so without building their team around premium priced premium agents. Those 8 include Arizona, Anaheim, Florida, Chicago, St. Louis (2) and San Francisco (2). By contrast, New York, Boston and Philadelphia splurged on premium price free agents and won a total of 4 world series in the past 12 years. In other words, 2/3rds of the winners did it without wasting money on premium free agents.

I don't have time to research those teams' FA signings, but I know Barry Zito signed the largest contract ever (at the time) for a pitcher with SF...

[hector]

I don't have time to research those teams' FA signings, but I know Barry Zito signed the largest contract ever (at the time) for a pitcher with SF...

Zito signed with SF in 2007 for $10 million and the salary has escalated somewhat from there. During his six years with the Giants, he won 58 games and lost 69. I think we can all agree you should be able to get a 58-69 pitcher far more cheaply.