Olney: O's finally a draw in FA

[weird-O]

To the extent that facts matter, let's consider the last 12 world series winners. Eight of the 12 did so without building their team around premium priced premium agents. In other words, 2/3rds of the winners did it without wasting money on premium free agents.

right out of the gate, your argument loses momentum. in other words, 33.333% of the 12 teams won the WS with premium FAs. 33.333 is a really significant percentage. ask any busines owner about the value of increasing your success (however that business owner measures success) and they will tell you that they would welcome that increase, and that it would make a substantial improvement to their business.

Those 8 include Arizona, Anaheim, Florida, Chicago, St. Louis (2) and San Francisco (2).

you should have looked into these team before you tried to make this your biggest convincing point. If you had, you would have discovered how little it supports whar you're trying to assert

Ariz - 2001: 8 of the 9 players in their starting line up were FAs. 5 of those 8 were premium FAs. their starting rotation consisted of 3 premium FA pitchers.

I'm not breaking down all 8 teams, but the 2006 & 2011 Stl Cardinals also had a significant FA presence on their rosters. remember, Pujols was earning premium FA money by the time they reached the WS.

that now bumps the total from your original estimation of 4, up to 7 out of 12 teams.

Boston just gave away most of their premium free agents for next to nothing. New York is desparately trying to shed payroll and get younger and Philadelphia is stuck with a couple very high priced pitchers on a team that is no longer competitive for the playoffs.

what does any of this have to do with those teams during their WS championship seasons?

It appears that teams are starting to wake up to the obvious fact that a premium long term contract demotivates rather than motivates the player to excel. It's called human nature.

there is simply no factual evidence to support the notion that teams are shying away from long term, big money contracts. look at the premium FAs from last winter. Pujols is a shinning example. those players all received long term high $$$ contracts.

[weenie]

yep, those premium FAs don't do anything for a team. just look at the O's of the past 15 years. they stayed with low salaried players and hovered near or at the bottom of the division. meanwhile, the the stupid yankees and red sox brought in great players at high prices. and what do they have to show for it. nothing but annual trips to the playoffs and a bunch of WS rings.

what a waste of money

15 years is a clever sound bite perhaps but in my recollection, I believe that period included the year they threw money at rejects like DeShields and Clark and in years thereafter they signed Lopez, Tejada, etc.

And, if you subtract '97-'99 from your other schtick, that leaves two WS rings over 12 years for two teams who spent on average double what the average teams spent.

I prefer to look at SF. They added some splashes to their core but the core won them the rings. The time for teams to add splash FAs is when they have a core and a solid feeder system. During the last 12 years the O's just did not have that....but now they appear to, and a choice signing or two could strengthen them.

However, the O's will not win because of an add, they'll win if Wieters, Markakis, Johnson, Jones, Hardy, Machado, Davis and the young arms continue to move forward. A choice FA like Hamilton is just one guy in the lineup and that's as easy to work around as one stud arm in the rotation.

How many rings does A Rod have? Or, Tex? Or, CC?

[ivanbalt]

And, if you subtract '97-'99 from your other schtick, that leaves two WS rings over 12 years for two teams who spent on average double what the average teams spent.

4 rings. 2 for Boston (2004, 2007), 2 for NY (2000, 2009). Unless you meant two each.

[weird-O]

15 years is a clever sound bite perhaps but in my recollection, I believe that period included the year they threw money at rejects like DeShields and Clark and in years thereafter they signed Lopez, Tejada, etc.

And, if you subtract '97-'99 from your other schtick, that leaves two WS rings over 12 years for two teams who spent on average double what the average teams spent.

I prefer to look at SF. They added some splashes to their core but the core won them the rings. The time for teams to add splash FAs is when they have a core and a solid feeder system. During the last 12 years the O's just did not have that....but now they appear to, and a choice signing or two could strengthen them.

However, the O's will not win because of an add, they'll win if Wieters, Markakis, Johnson, Jones, Hardy, Machado, Davis and the young arms continue to move forward. A choice FA like Hamilton is just one guy in the lineup and that's as easy to work around as one stud arm in the rotation.

How many rings does A Rod have? Or, Tex? Or, CC?

my schtick?

I don't think you understood what I was saying. and if you consider DeShields and Clark to be premium, big $$$ FAs, you are probably among a very small group. Delino was never a premium player, and Clark was at the end of his career when he sign w/ the O's. why not add Millar to your list, or the trade for Sammy Sosa? compared to DeShields, those guys are mega impact players.

Javy Lopez was winding down his career. I would hardly consider him a premium FA, but I suppose that's a subjective term. Tejada was a legitimate premium FA signing.

it's also funny to see you subtracting 2 years where the NYY won the WS, why not also subtract the 4 years of this century where NY & Bos won it all. that way you can say,"those teams spend crazy money and couldn't win the WS"

and a final point that's worth discussing. if the season is only a success if you win the WS, there are very few successful seasons in the 100+ years of the sport. by your reasoning, you obviously don't consider Baltimore's 2012 season to be a success. I disagree, but that's just my opinion. fielding a competitive team and challenging for or making the playoffs is a successful season for most teams. you clearly have higher standards. I wish you were the O's GM since 1998.

you and Hector should get together and figure out how to build a WS championship team with a $62M payroll. let us know when you get that hammered out. I for one will be very interested to see the results.

[bmore_ken]

4 rings. 2 for Boston (2004, 2007), 2 for NY (2000, 2009). Unless you meant two each.

4 rings and a bunch of playoff appearances

[hector]

my schtick?

I don't think you understood what I was saying. and if you consider DeShields and Clark to be premium, big $$$ FAs, you are probably among a very small group. Delino was never a premium player, and Clark was at the end of his career when he sign w/ the O's. why not add Millar to your list, or the trade for Sammy Sosa? compared to DeShields, those guys are mega impact players.

Javy Lopez was winding down his career. I would hardly consider him a premium FA, but I suppose that's a subjective term. Tejada was a legitimate premium FA signing.

it's also funny to see you subtracting 2 years where the NYY won the WS, why not also subtract the 4 years of this century where NY & Bos won it all. that way you can say,"those teams spend crazy money and couldn't win the WS"

and a final point that's worth discussing. if the season is only a success if you win the WS, there are very few successful seasons in the 100+ years of the sport. by your reasoning, you obviously don't consider Baltimore's 2012 season to be a success. I disagree, but that's just my opinion. fielding a competitive team and challenging for or making the playoffs is a successful season for most teams. you clearly have higher standards. I wish you were the O's GM since 1998.

you and Hector should get together and figure out how to build a WS championship team with a $62M payroll. let us know when you get that hammered out. I for one will be very interested to see the results.

Where did you dig up the $62M straw man? The secret to my success in negotiating premium results for clients is to recognize and argue around straw men. When someone reaches for the straw man, you know they've got nothing else. You're smarter than that so put the straw man back in the closet and instead rely on your natural intellegence.

[weird-O]

Where did you dig up the $62M straw man? The secret to my success in negotiating premium results for clients is to recognize and argue around straw men. When someone reaches for the straw man, you know they've got nothing else. You're smarter than that so put the straw man back in the closet and instead rely on your natural intellegence.

first schtick, now strawman. you guys must have the S volumn of your encyclopedia open today. Flip to page 149 and look up Stuttgart.

$62M was a random $ amount, if it helps you understand it better, think of it as $52M or $82M or whatever payroll amount allows you to feel a sense of accomplishment that you built a WS champion fantasy team.

maybe weenie will hire you as his asst VPOBBO (opens the door for Hector to share with the board how he makes far too much money to take the cut in pay required of him to be a MLB exec.)

your argument is that a team of low salaried, marginal talents can routinely make a WS appearance and win it all. this is a more succict version of what you said, which is, high $$$ premium FAs don't help teams succeed, and that success is can only be measured by a WS championship.

the problem is, there is no historical evidence of such a team achieving and sustaining those heights in the free agent era.

is that what a strawman is? is a strawman when you say something, then someone asks you to support your position with stats, data or historical precedent? if so, then slap my arse and call me Dorothy, because me, Tinman and the lion are off to see the wizard.

[weird-O]

I prefer to look at SF. They added some splashes to their core but the core won them the rings. The time for teams to add splash FAs is when they have a core and a solid feeder system. During the last 12 years the O's just did not have that....but now they appear to, and a choice signing or two could strengthen them.

initially, I was going to let this go, but since hector decided to bust my balls, I'm going to point this out.

the 2010 SF team and the 2012 SF team only have 3 threads between them. Posey, Panda and the starting rotation. there are no other starting players (and very few bench/supporting players)who played for both WS championship teams. so there is no core of guys, unless your referring to the starting rotation, 3/4 of which are all high $$$ premium players. so I wouldn't say the Giants are a good example to hold up in support of the argument the two of you seem to be making.

[hector]

first schtick, now strawman. you guys must have the S volumn of your encyclopedia open today. Flip to page 149 and look up Stuttgart.

$62M was a random $ amount, if it helps you understand it better, think of it as $52M or $82M or whatever payroll amount allows you to feel a sense of accomplishment that you built a WS champion fantasy team.

maybe weenie will hire you as his asst VPOBBO (opens the door for Hector to share with the board how he makes far too much money to take the cut in pay required of him to be a MLB exec.)

your argument is that a team of low salaried, marginal talents can routinely make a WS appearance and win it all. this is a more succict version of what you said, which is, high $$$ premium FAs don't help teams succeed, and that success is can only be measured by a WS championship.

the problem is, there is no historical evidence of such a team achieving and sustaining those heights in the free agent era.

is that what a strawman is? is a strawman when you say something, then someone asks you to support your position with stats, data or historical precedent? if so, then slap my arse and call me Dorothy, because me, Tinman and the lion are off to see the wizard.

The lack of sensibility in your post suggests that your "weird" side was dominant when you wrote it. Please consider the following:

1. I don't use the word "schtick" so I'm not sure what you're referring to with that "weird" comment;

2. I said $62M was a straw man and you said it was a made-up number to try to make a point. In other words, you agree that $62M was a straw man. That's a good start and definitely not weird.

3. I have no desire to be employed as a MLB executive. If that were my goal, I'd buy a team.

4. Your pathetic attempt to restate my position is "weird." I'm not saying that teams full of low salaried marginal talents can routinely make a WS appearance and win it all. Another strawman erected by the "weird" man. What I am saying is that paying inflated salaries to a few players doesn't assure success and indeed history from the premium priced free agent era seems to bear that out. How many premium priced free agents performed to expectations and were the prime reasons their team won the series? Very few.

5. You, tinman and the lion need not go far to find the wizard - I am the wizard.

[hector]

initially, I was going to let this go, but since hector decided to bust my balls, I'm going to point this out.

the 2010 SF team and the 2012 SF team only have 3 threads between them. Posey, Panda and the starting rotation. there are no other starting players (and very few bench/supporting players)who played for both WS championship teams. so there is no core of guys, unless your referring to the starting rotation, 3/4 of which are all high $$$ premium players. so I wouldn't say the Giants are a good example to hold up in support of the argument the two of you seem to be making.

Would you care to name the premium free agents who led the Giants to the 2010 and 2012 WS titles?

[weird-O]

Would you care to name the premium free agents who led the Giants to the 2010 and 2012 WS titles?

2010: Tim Lincecum, Aubry Huff, Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria

2012: Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Hunter Pence

all played a big role in the Giants getting to and winning the WS. and they all earn(ed) big salaries.

for clarification: I know Lincecum and Cain were brought up thru the Giants org, but they both premium players who earn big salaries through extended contracts. the same goes for Pence who was traded to SF, but earns big money that Philly gave to him.

[weird-O]

1. I don't use the word "schtick" so I'm not sure what you're referring to with that "weird" comment;

you should read the thread more thoroughly and you would know where that came from

2. I said $62M was a straw man and you said it was a made-up number to try to make a point. In other words, you agree that $62M was a straw man. That's a good start and definitely not weird.

"strawman" is a popular phrase on this board. but I'm not sure you understand what that expression means. because my point was sincere and relevant to the discussion. but this is your "schtick". you play ignorant to frustrate people and troll.

3. I have no desire to be employed as a MLB executive. If that were my goal, I'd buy a team.

I know, I know. you're uber rich, important and busy. it's a testament to your boundless energy that that you still find the time to spend all day, every day on a chatboard.

4. Your pathetic attempt to restate my position is "weird." I'm not saying that teams full of low salaried marginal talents can routinely make a WS appearance and win it all. Another strawman erected by the "weird" man. What I am saying is that paying inflated salaries to a few players doesn't assure success and indeed history from the premium priced free agent era seems to bear that out. How many premium priced free agents performed to expectations and were the prime reasons their team won the series? Very few.

what you're doing here is called "moving the goal post". that's another popular expression on this board. it means, adjusting your position or comments when your original position or comments have been proven wrong.

you suffer from a common disease of this board. you can never admit that your wrong. it's ok, your still in a delicate evolutionary phase of existance. one day you will be able to admit error. on that day, you will achieve true enlightenment. good luck on your continued journey

[CIB]

you should read the thread more thoroughly and you would know where that came from



"strawman" is a popular phrase on this board. but I'm not sure you understand what that expression means. because my point was sincere and relevant to the discussion. but this is your "schtick". you play ignorant to frustrate people and troll.


I know, I know. you're uber rich, important and busy. it's a testament to your boundless energy that that you still find the time to spend all day, every day on a chatboard.



what you're doing here is called "moving the goal post". that's another popular expression on this board. it means, adjusting your position or comments when your original position or comments have been proven wrong.

you suffer from a common disease of this board. you can never admit that your wrong. it's ok, your still in a delicate evolutionary phase of existance. one day you will be able to admit error. on that day, you will achieve true enlightenment. good luck on your continued journey

If you waste any more time on him, that's up to you.
I will just say that anyone who tries to argue that consistently spending large amounts of $ on premium free agents doesn't improve one's chances of post-season play is an idiot. Haven't the Yankees spent ridiculous sums of $ the past 15 years and been in the playoffs something like 13/15 times? And haven't the Red Sox made the playoffs the majority of the past 15 years as well, if I recall correctly?

[weird-O]

If you waste any more time on him, that's up to you.
I will just say that anyone who tries to argue that consistently spending large amounts of $ on premium free agents doesn't improve one's chances of post-season play is an idiot. Haven't the Yankees spent ridiculous sums of $ the past 15 years and been in the playoffs something like 13/15 times? And haven't the Red Sox made the playoffs the majority of the past 15 years as well, if I recall correctly?

you're right, and that's the whole reason why I'm asking those two, who disagree, to show why everyone else is wrong, and they are right.

it couldn't be more obvious.

wasting my time is just the downside of this slow time of the off season

[hector]

2010: Tim Lincecum, Aubry Huff, Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria

2012: Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Hunter Pence

all played a big role in the Giants getting to and winning the WS. and they all earn(ed) big salaries.

for clarification: I know Lincecum and Cain were brought up thru the Giants org, but they both premium players who earn big salaries through extended contracts. the same goes for Pence who was traded to SF, but earns big money that Philly gave to him.

Your post supports my position that paying very high salaries to premium free agents is not the best route to success.

To your credit, you acknowledge that Lincecum and Cain are home grown players so let's eliminate them in a discussion of FREE AGENTS. The Giants like many teams pay high salaries to their home grown stars and even the O's do this (Markakis, Roberts, Jones).

Three of your other examples (Huff, Rowand and Renteria) hardly qualify as premium players that were in great demand when they hit the market. The last example (Zito) arguably qualified as a premium player based on past performance when he hit the free agent market but he's been a 58-69 premium free agent bust since the Giants signed him 6 years ago.

In sum, the one premium free agent signed by the Giants (Zito) was a bust which proves my point rather than yours.

[weird-O]

Your post supports my position that paying very high salaries to premium free agents is not the best route to success.

To your credit, you acknowledge that Lincecum and Cain are home grown players so let's eliminate them in a discussion of FREE AGENTS. The Giants like many teams pay high salaries to their home grown stars and even the O's do this (Markakis, Roberts, Jones).

Three of your other examples (Huff, Rowand and Renteria) hardly qualify as premium players that were in great demand when they hit the market. The last example (Zito) arguably qualified as a premium player based on past performance when he hit the free agent market but he's been a 58-69 premium free agent bust since the Giants signed him 6 years ago.

In sum, the one premium free agent signed by the Giants (Zito) was a bust which proves my point rather than yours.

just so that I understand. a premium player earning premium player $$$ doesn't count, in your discussion, if they didn't change teams?

there you go moving the goal post again.

Zito was a bust? he won an elimination game in the NLDS. he won an elimination game in the NLCS, and he won a WS game. yeah...what were they thinking putting that loser on the mound.

you've discounted Huff, Rowand and Renteria because you don't think they're a premium player. yet they were given premium player money by the Giants.

you're clearly just trying to be a contrarian, even if you need to look ridiculous to do so. I hope you're having fun with that.

[weenie]

just so that I understand. a premium player earning premium player $$$ doesn't count, in your discussion, if they didn't change teams?

there you go moving the goal post again.

Zito was a bust? he won an elimination game in the NLDS. he won an elimination game in the NLCS, and he won a WS game. yeah...what were they thinking putting that loser on the mound.

you've discounted Huff, Rowand and Renteria because you don't think they're a premium player. yet they were given premium player money by the Giants.

you're clearly just trying to be a contrarian, even if you need to look ridiculous to do so. I hope you're having fun with that.

I'm confused by your rhetoric. I thought this started cuz you were lamenting the lack of big time free agent signings. When I suggested SF was a more realistic role model than NY or BOS you, not Hector turned the tables around to include in-house signings. Does your logic include our own team's contracts for Jones, Nick, B Rob, (OR SIDNEY PONSON) etc.?

Regardless, let's stop comparing Baltimore's economic realities with LA, NY, Bos or even Atlanta or Detroit or Texas,etc. Baltimore is a mid-market team plain and simple. MASN is not a pot of gold. And Baltimore will never be the center of commerce or culture. But it can still be a fun place to live and play.

My general point is that ML Baseball may not have a salary cap but that does not mean every team should just throw caution to the wind. Bottomline is it is an investment. Teams like the O's will win by being good judges of talent and by being very precise with their free agency forays.

Tampa for years signed guys like Canseco and McGriff rather than grow through their system. Eventually they wised up. Now, they keep a very low payroll and only sign their very best to long term deals. We are fortunate that the O's are more liquid than the Rays and can have more than just one or two big paycheck guys but we will never see a payroll or draw like NY so be cool and enjoy what we have.

You know, I have enjoyed reading your comments throughout the last year or two but your recent comments strike me as a bit convoluted. On one hand you go off on the lack of big time adds and then you lecture on why we should be grateful for the awesome year we just had.

No matter, I still enjoy your posts as well as Hector's and think both of you are more akin than askew

[hector]

just so that I understand. a premium player earning premium player $$$ doesn't count, in your discussion, if they didn't change teams?

there you go moving the goal post again.

Zito was a bust? he won an elimination game in the NLDS. he won an elimination game in the NLCS, and he won a WS game. yeah...what were they thinking putting that loser on the mound.

you've discounted Huff, Rowand and Renteria because you don't think they're a premium player. yet they were given premium player money by the Giants.

you're clearly just trying to be a contrarian, even if you need to look ridiculous to do so. I hope you're having fun with that.

Weird-O, I'm starting to worry about you. This conversation is about PREMIUM FREE AGENTS and now you've tried to switch it around to signing a team's own players. Try to stay on track if it's not too difficult.

Also your suggestion that journeymen like Huff and Renteria qualify as PREMIUM also suggests a bit of misunderstanding on your part. When I use the term PREMIUM FREE AGENT, I refer to players like Pujols, Tex, Gonzalez, etc not the likes of Huff and Renteria. Until your latest post, I never imagined that you were so upset with the O's decision not to re-sign Aubrey Huff.

Weenie suggests that we're more akin than askew - do you think he's right?

[Far from home]

Weird-O, I'm starting to worry about you. This conversation is about PREMIUM FREE AGENTS and now you've tried to switch it around to signing a team's own players. Try to stay on track if it's not too difficult.

Also your suggestion that journeymen like Huff and Renteria qualify as PREMIUM also suggests a bit of misunderstanding on your part. When I use the term PREMIUM FREE AGENT, I refer to players like Pujols, Tex, Gonzalez, etc not the likes of Huff and Renteria. Until your latest post, I never imagined that you were so upset with the O's decision not to re-sign Aubrey Huff.

Weenie suggests that we're more akin than askew - do you think he's right?

2009 NY Yankees - I don't need to explain
2011 StL - with Holliday, Carpenter, and other guys.
2007 Red Sox Don't need to explain
2004 Red Sox Don't need to explain
1988 LA Dodgers (Gibson, Leary, Shelby, Sutton)
2005 White Sox - Contreras, Pierzynski, Garcia, Iguchi, Dye, Everett
2003 Marlins - Urbina, Pierre, Rodriguez, Pavano, Redman

I'm sure there are more, but I'm not going to scour everything.

Some teams (like the 2002 Angels) do it with their own development. Ironically, signing Vlad didn't do anything for them - in fact it signaled a team decline.
Other teams have had a better time in the FA market.
Good players in their good-best years win you championships, it doesn't matter how you get them.

[weird-O]

I'm confused by your rhetoric. I thought this started cuz you were lamenting the lack of big time free agent signings. When I suggested SF was a more realistic role model than NY or BOS you, not Hector turned the tables around to include in-house signings. Does your logic include our own team's contracts for Jones, Nick, B Rob, (OR SIDNEY PONSON) etc.?

let me try to clarify my opinions. I don't think it's necessary to field a team that's predominantly high priced, premium players. and I wasn't lamenting a lack of those types of players. however, in the interest of full disclosure, I wanted to O's to sign Fielder. and he would have been the difference maker in winning the Division vs the wild card. there is no way to reasonably believe otherwise.

I disagree with the opinion that the addition of premium players (which always require a premium salary) won't help a team be better and more competitive. this is Hector's opinion. and if you go back and re-read your original post to me, it was more reflective of his opinion than this new expression of your's.

now to clarify my opinion on in-house signings. yes, I include Jones, Nick, B Rob, and Ponson. if someone is making an argument that a team can win without premium players, that will include those players developed by the team, who have reached the stage of their career where they can demand market value for their services. Subtract Markakis and Jones from the O's. do they still make the playoffs? do they still compete for the playoffs? IMO, the answer is No to both questions.

Regardless, let's stop comparing Baltimore's economic realities with LA, NY, Bos or even Atlanta or Detroit or Texas,etc. Baltimore is a mid-market team plain and simple. MASN is not a pot of gold. And Baltimore will never be the center of commerce or culture. But it can still be a fun place to live and play.

I agree with most of this. I differ with your opinion about MASN. and on that topic I defer to PGA who said MASN will allow the O's to compete on a level playing field with the poswerhouse teams in the division.

Tampa for years signed guys like Canseco and McGriff rather than grow through their system.

agreed. the difference is, the owner during those days, wasn't trying to compete. the owner was simply trying to bring in a couple players with name recognition to draw casual fans. the O's did the same thing with Sosa.

You know, I have enjoyed reading your comments throughout the last year or two but your recent comments strike me as a bit convoluted. On one hand you go off on the lack of big time adds and then you lecture on why we should be grateful for the awesome year we just had.

thank you for the compliment. I appreciate your posts as well.

as for reconciling my two opinions, I don't see why they're at odds with each other. they aren't mutually exclusive. last winter, the team needed a first baseman. Prince was available. although I didn't believe the 2012 O's would be competitive, the FO did. and since DD and Buck wanted Prince, I wanted to see them sign Prince.

after what they did last year, I'm not screaming for top $$$ additions. but it's important to add this. the owner's has repeated replied to calls for premium additions by saying, "we aren't ready to compete, so it's pointless to add them". well now the team is ready to compete. so if there is a premium player who can fill a need and make the O's better, I can't see a reason not to add that player.

I'm a lifer with this team, whether I like it or not

but I wasn't about to dwell on the past when the team was playing so well. I stayed in the moment, not the past and not the future (aka, "this won't last").