Olney: O's finally a draw in FA

[durango46]

let me try to clarify my opinions. I don't think it's necessary to field a team that's predominantly high priced, premium players. and I wasn't lamenting a lack of those types of players. however, in the interest of full disclosure, I wanted to O's to sign Fielder. and he would have been the difference maker in winning the Division vs the wild card. there is no way to reasonably believe otherwise.

I disagree with the opinion that the addition of premium players (which always require a premium salary) won't help a team be better and more competitive. this is Hector's opinion. and if you go back and re-read your original post to me, it was more reflective of his opinion than this new expression of your's.

now to clarify my opinion on in-house signings. yes, I include Jones, Nick, B Rob, and Ponson. if someone is making an argument that a team can win without premium players, that will include those players developed by the team, who have reached the stage of their career where they can demand market value for their services. Subtract Markakis and Jones from the O's. do they still make the playoffs? do they still compete for the playoffs? IMO, the answer is No to both questions.



I agree with most of this. I differ with your opinion about MASN. and on that topic I defer to PGA who said MASN will allow the O's to compete on a level playing field with the poswerhouse teams in the division.



agreed. the difference is, the owner during those days, wasn't trying to compete. the owner was simply trying to bring in a couple players with name recognition to draw casual fans. the O's did the same thing with Sosa.



thank you for the compliment. I appreciate your posts as well.

as for reconciling my two opinions, I don't see why they're at odds with each other. they aren't mutually exclusive. last winter, the team needed a first baseman. Prince was available. although I didn't believe the 2012 O's would be competitive, the FO did. and since DD and Buck wanted Prince, I wanted to see them sign Prince.

after what they did last year, I'm not screaming for top $$$ additions. but it's important to add this. the owner's has repeated replied to calls for premium additions by saying, "we aren't ready to compete, so it's pointless to add them". well now the team is ready to compete. so if there is a premium player who can fill a need and make the O's better, I can't see a reason not to add that player.

I'm a lifer with this team, whether I like it or not

but I wasn't about to dwell on the past when the team was playing so well. I stayed in the moment, not the past and not the future (aka, "this won't last").

^This^This^This^

for all those who don't agree....how can a premium player NOT help ?

[durango46]

The Orioles make their first run in 15 years......and

DD is now the "King of Cali" because of a couple of modest pickups who probably won't be able to match last seasons output.

Not only that....negotiations with Saunders and McLouth are moving slowly...wonder why ??? not me. Can you say low balling .

and how quickly we forget the Nick Johnson, Endy Chavez, Bil Hall, Jim Thome, Omar Quintanilla and JC Romero signings

but hey...

ALL ABOARD THAT TRAIN


and anybody that says otherwise couldn't possibly know anything about baseball.....
ah...wasn't 90% of the team already in place ?


Pete is still Pete


CHOO CHOO !

[weenie]

The Orioles make their first run in 15 years......and

DD is now the "King of Cali" because of a couple of modest pickups who probably won't be able to match last seasons output.

Not only that....negotiations with Saunders and McLouth are moving slowly...wonder why ??? not me. Can you say low balling .

and how quickly we forget the Nick Johnson, Endy Chavez, Bil Hall, Jim Thome, Omar Quintanilla and JC Romero signings

but hey...

ALL ABOARD THAT TRAIN


and anybody that says otherwise couldn't possibly know anything about baseball.....
ah...wasn't 90% of the team already in place ?


Pete is still Pete


CHOO CHOO !

If I was Duquette, I'd be trying to make a trade at the winter meetings first and then I would try to sign complementary free agents ASAP. These next ten days will tell us much about the $$$ commitment Angelos empowers Dan to exercise. After the game yesterday, local fans could use a lift.

[weird-O]

If I was Duquette, I'd be trying to make a trade at the winter meetings first and then I would try to sign complementary free agents ASAP. These next ten days will tell us much about the $$$ commitment Angelos empowers Dan to exercise. After the game yesterday, local fans could use a lift.

by all accounts, the O's farm system is among the weakest in the sport. that will make any significant trade nearly impossible to make.

[weenie]

let me try to clarify my opinions. I don't think it's necessary to field a team that's predominantly high priced, premium players. and I wasn't lamenting a lack of those types of players. however, in the interest of full disclosure, I wanted to O's to sign Fielder. and he would have been the difference maker in winning the Division vs the wild card. there is no way to reasonably believe otherwise.

I disagree with the opinion that the addition of premium players (which always require a premium salary) won't help a team be better and more competitive. this is Hector's opinion. and if you go back and re-read your original post to me, it was more reflective of his opinion than this new expression of your's.

now to clarify my opinion on in-house signings. yes, I include Jones, Nick, B Rob, and Ponson. if someone is making an argument that a team can win without premium players, that will include those players developed by the team, who have reached the stage of their career where they can demand market value for their services. Subtract Markakis and Jones from the O's. do they still make the playoffs? do they still compete for the playoffs? IMO, the answer is No to both questions.



I agree with most of this. I differ with your opinion about MASN. and on that topic I defer to PGA who said MASN will allow the O's to compete on a level playing field with the poswerhouse teams in the division.



agreed. the difference is, the owner during those days, wasn't trying to compete. the owner was simply trying to bring in a couple players with name recognition to draw casual fans. the O's did the same thing with Sosa.



thank you for the compliment. I appreciate your posts as well.

as for reconciling my two opinions, I don't see why they're at odds with each other. they aren't mutually exclusive. last winter, the team needed a first baseman. Prince was available. although I didn't believe the 2012 O's would be competitive, the FO did. and since DD and Buck wanted Prince, I wanted to see them sign Prince.

after what they did last year, I'm not screaming for top $$$ additions. but it's important to add this. the owner's has repeated replied to calls for premium additions by saying, "we aren't ready to compete, so it's pointless to add them". well now the team is ready to compete. so if there is a premium player who can fill a need and make the O's better, I can't see a reason not to add that player.

I'm a lifer with this team, whether I like it or not

but I wasn't about to dwell on the past when the team was playing so well. I stayed in the moment, not the past and not the future (aka, "this won't last").

As I suspected, we are in complete agreement...except maybe for bringing in Fielder. To me that's like trying to hook up with a super model lesbian. It's not gonna happen so you got to move on to more practical targets.

I am curious though. Who would you like to see added from this shallow free agent pool? In the meantime, let's hope our GM can lure a bat using his surplus of underachieving young arms.

[weird-O]

This conversation is about PREMIUM FREE AGENTS

if you want to limit the focused to only those players who switched teams, it will not sufficiently cover all the pertinent information necessary to intelligently and honestly discuss this topic.

it also won't help your argument, as we've seen in this thread.

[hector]

if you want to limit the focused to only those players who switched teams, it will not sufficiently cover all the pertinent information necessary to intelligently and honestly discuss this topic.

it also won't help your argument, as we've seen in this thread.

Huh??? Now that is truly "weird."

Let me try to clarify for you. I believe it's best for a team to develop its own players and pay what it takes to re-sign the homegrown premium performers when their contracts are up. I also believe that the track record of premium free agents signed from other teams is such that there are more busts than successes. I assume that's because of a human tendency to slack off a bit when you've got it made.

[weird-O]

As I suspected, we are in complete agreement...except maybe for bringing in Fielder. To me that's like trying to hook up with a super model lesbian. It's not gonna happen so you got to move on to more practical targets.

true, but it's fun to daydream about for a few minutes

I am curious though. Who would you like to see added from this shallow free agent pool? In the meantime, let's hope our GM can lure a bat using his surplus of underachieving young arms.

as I see it, the O's need someone for 1B, LF, DH and a starting pitcher. and you're right, there aren't many options. but here are my thoughts.

1B: LaRoche is the obvious choice. he wants 3 yrs, but I don't know how much $ he wants per year. the expectation is that it's going to be more than he probably should be given. Still, I think he should be considered. he'll give 2 good years. so be like every other team and potentially eat a 3rd year to compete now without giving up whatever prospects they have.
Pierzynski- he's looking for a 2 yr deal. Offer him 3 yrs if he'll move to 1B, and if he can move to 1B. He's a trashtalking jerk. but he's also a hard nosed ballplayer who gives everything he has each night. I like Napoli for some of the same reasons, but he's ready to cash in, so he'll want a long contract. Both players add offense, but they are (or potentially are) defensively weaker than Reynolds. I like both of those guys as a DH too, because they can both give Weiters an extra day off behind the plate. MW doesn't like to DH, but that's how you keep his bat fresh late in the season. w/ Pierzynski, you don't lose much defense at catcher.

MW: can catch 4 games, DH one game sit out 1 game each week
AJ or Napoli: can catch 1 game, DH 2 games and 1B 2 games each week
Davis will also be in the DH/1B mix since he won't be getting that steady OF playing time this year.

LF: McLouth- the grass isn't always greener. he did everything you want in a player. he's team-first. he hit where and when the O's asked him to, and was one of only 2 bats that showed up for the divisional series. Great D and speed on the bases. he is an inexpensive alternative to a BJ Upton or a Bourne. Bourne is interesting to consider, but he's ready for his big payday.

Pitchers: I don't really like anyone this winter. Greinke is a big "no" for me. I don't think he can stand up to the demands of the ALe. Sanchez wants $90M/6yrs. No way, he's not worth that. But Lohse is worth considering. he seems willing to sign for 3 yrs. so he fits the parameters of what DD and PGA consider a safe contract term. and he can deliver in the playoffs. Saunders should be considered as a viable back of the rotation guy. he can handle the job, and he can be your game 1 starter for any post season series. 2 yrs will get him.

the O's don't seem to need much. and the ALe seems up for grabs with NY shedding payroll and Bos. trying to figure out where to go. TB lost a big bat, but Toronto significantly upgraded.

[Gizmo]

true, but it's fun to daydream about for a few minutes



as I see it, the O's need someone for 1B, LF, DH and a starting pitcher. and you're right, there aren't many options. but here are my thoughts.

1B: LaRoche is the obvious choice. he wants 3 yrs, but I don't know how much $ he wants per year. the expectation is that it's going to be more than he probably should be given. Still, I think he should be considered. he'll give 2 good years. so be like every other team and potentially eat a 3rd year to compete now without giving up whatever prospects they have.
Pierzynski- he's looking for a 2 yr deal. Offer him 3 yrs if he'll move to 1B, and if he can move to 1B. He's a trashtalking jerk. but he's also a hard nosed ballplayer who gives everything he has each night. I like Napoli for some of the same reasons, but he's ready to cash in, so he'll want a long contract. Both players add offense, but they are (or potentially are) defensively weaker than Reynolds. I like both of those guys as a DH too, because they can both give Weiters an extra day off behind the plate. MW doesn't like to DH, but that's how you keep his bat fresh late in the season. w/ Pierzynski, you don't lose much defense at catcher.

MW: can catch 4 games, DH one game sit out 1 game each week
AJ or Napoli: can catch 1 game, DH 2 games and 1B 2 games each week
Davis will also be in the DH/1B mix since he won't be getting that steady OF playing time this year.

....

Napoli signed today with Boston. 3yrs/39mill is what I saw reported.

[bmore_ken]

Before you guys get all worked up with fantasy free agent signings


Of course, this would all be easier to understand if the Orioles revealed the budget for player salaries, but we'll have to figure that out for ourselves. The team's payroll was about $86 million last season and it just subtracted $7.5 million of that by sending Reynolds on his way. It's not out of the question that he might come back later for less than the $9 million estimated arbitration figure, but you have to think that there is a team out there willing to outbid the O's for a guy whose career numbers say he might bounce back and hit 35 home runs next year.

There's a pretty good chance the Orioles' payroll will be above $100 million by the end of the team's last arbitration hearing in February.

The Orioles are facing the only downside to developing a broad base of young major league talent. They entered this offseason with the highest number of arbitration-eligible players in the major leagues at the same time that top stars Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are due multi-million-dollar raises under their long-term contracts.

Markakis will get a $3 million bump to $15 million in 2013 and Jones will get a $2.35 million raise in the first year of his six-year contract extension, but that's just the beginning. Matt Wieters and Jim Johnson are both up for big raises in arbitration, as are Jason Hammel and Chris Davis. Throw in a $750,000 raise for Wilson Betemit and arbitration increases for Darren O'Day, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz, Troy Patton and Nolan Reimold and estimates range as high as $24 million in increased payroll without adding any big-dollar players from outside the organization.

The payroll space created by subtracting Reynolds' 2012 salary and those of other departed players (most notably reliever Kevin Gregg) still leaves the Orioles with an estimated payroll increase of more than $10 million before anybody starts talking about what it would cost to re-sign free agent outfielder Nate McLouth or pitcher Joe Saunders.

If the Orioles sign one of those two at a reasonable price, it would put the team very close to $100 million in payroll, which probably is the club's salary budget. It is, after all, kind of a big round number.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/o...lumn?track=rss

[Gizmo]

You can always count on ken to take all the fun out of everything.

Thanks ken, keep telling us why we can't have nice things.

By the way, pretty good analysis. I still want Hamilton, though. I don't care if we overpay and he isn't worth as much as we give him.

[durango46]

The Orioles make their first run in 15 years......and

DD is now the "King of Cali" because of a couple of modest pickups who probably won't be able to match last seasons output.

Not only that....negotiations with Saunders and McLouth are moving slowly...wonder why ??? not me. Can you say low balling .

and how quickly we forget the Nick Johnson, Endy Chavez, Bil Hall, Jim Thome, Omar Quintanilla and JC Romero signings

but hey...

ALL ABOARD THAT TRAIN


and anybody that says otherwise couldn't possibly know anything about baseball.....
ah...wasn't 90% of the team already in place ?


Pete is still Pete


CHOO CHOO !

I liked this post so much I had to bump it up again

I'm so witty......oh so witty.....and pretty and .....that's enough

[hector]

The Orioles make their first run in 15 years......and

DD is now the "King of Cali" because of a couple of modest pickups who probably won't be able to match last seasons output.

Not only that....negotiations with Saunders and McLouth are moving slowly...wonder why ??? not me. Can you say low balling .

and how quickly we forget the Nick Johnson, Endy Chavez, Bil Hall, Jim Thome, Omar Quintanilla and JC Romero signings

but hey...

ALL ABOARD THAT TRAIN


and anybody that says otherwise couldn't possibly know anything about baseball.....
ah...wasn't 90% of the team already in place ?


Pete is still Pete


CHOO CHOO !

Weren't Johnson, Chavez and Thome three of the stiffs who were signed for the 2012 team after the brass decided that the player with the highest batting average in 2011 shouldn't be retained?

[durango46]

Weren't Johnson, Chavez and Thome three of the stiffs who were signed for the 2012 team after the brass decided that the player with the highest batting average in 2011 shouldn't be retained?

okay you got me, that was funny

[bmore_ken]

okay you got me, that was funny

It stopped being funny back in March

[ivanbalt]

In 2011, the Tigers won 95 games without Fielder. In 2012, the Tigers regressed to 88 wins after paying big bucks to Fielder. It looks like minus 7 to me.

That's a fun stat to throw around. What would their record have been without him? 30 hr, .313, 108 rbis sounds like a pretty good season including the lineup protection it gave that other guy who won a triple crown.

Is Fielder the reason they lost seven more games?

[weird-O]

That's a fun stat to throw around. What would their record have been without him? 30 hr, .313, 108 rbis sounds like a pretty good season including the lineup protection it gave that other guy who won a triple crown.

Is Fielder the reason they lost seven more games?

his comments presuppose that the 2011 & 2012 teams were exactly the same and faced all the same teams both seasons. and all those teams were also exactly the same.

essentially, his argument only works if the singular difference, between the 2011 & 2012 Tigers, was the addition of Fielder.

it doesn't account for variables like losing Victor Martinez in 2012. it doesn't account for variables like the A's and O's being better teams. or the White Sox being a much better team in '12 than they were in '11.

but to say Fielder and his huge contract didn't help the Tigers, because they lost 7 more games in 2012, that's silly. he single-handedly won several games for them. I know, because I watched MLB highlights and saw it happen again and again. and then there's the intangibles. for example, how much better was Cabrera with PF than he was w/o him? that's harder to quantify, but we know this. Braun had an MVP season with PF behind him in the line up. then MC had a triple crown, MVP season with PF behind him.

that's why someone tried to create WAR stats. they don't quite work, but it's something.

[hector]

It stopped being funny back in March

I agree - it wasn't funny when O's brass decided that Johnson, Chavez and Thome belonged on the 2012 team and the player with the highest batting average on the 2011 team didn't belong.

[hector]

his comments presuppose that the 2011 & 2012 teams were exactly the same and faced all the same teams both seasons. and all those teams were also exactly the same.

essentially, his argument only works if the singular difference, between the 2011 & 2012 Tigers, was the addition of Fielder.

it doesn't account for variables like losing Victor Martinez in 2012. it doesn't account for variables like the A's and O's being better teams. or the White Sox being a much better team in '12 than they were in '11.

but to say Fielder and his huge contract didn't help the Tigers, because they lost 7 more games in 2012, that's silly. he single-handedly won several games for them. I know, because I watched MLB highlights and saw it happen again and again. and then there's the intangibles. for example, how much better was Cabrera with PF than he was w/o him? that's harder to quantify, but we know this. Braun had an MVP season with PF behind him in the line up. then MC had a triple crown, MVP season with PF behind him.

that's why someone tried to create WAR stats. they don't quite work, but it's something.

My comments do not pre-suppose what you say in the lead paragraph of your post. Such presumptions would be silly and not worthy of a genius such as myself or a weird-O such as yourself.

My view is that premium free agents more often than not don't return the improvement that the team signing them hopes to get for their $20M + per year long term contract. There's no doubt that Fielder delivered a few game winning hits - so did Taylor Teagarden in many fewer opportunities.

[weird-O]

My view is that premium free agents more often than not don't return the improvement that the team signing them hopes to get for their $20M + per year long term contract. There's no doubt that Fielder delivered a few game winning hits - so did Taylor Teagarden in many fewer opportunities.

this is a much less hardlined statement than you've been making in this thread. this statement may be more accurate. so now it's up to you to do the research. unless you're willing to back up your opinion with facts and stats, I don't think your argument will convince too many people. simply put, we've seen teams of highly skilled players make the playoffs year in and year out.

with the understanding that there are no guarantees in sports, and that there are always exceptions to the norm/rule, a team of more skilled athletes, will beat a team or lesser athletes, more times than not.