Olney: O's finally a draw in FA

[hector]

this is a much less hardlined statement than you've been making in this thread. this statement may be more accurate. so now it's up to you to do the research. unless you're willing to back up your opinion with facts and stats, I don't think your argument will convince too many people. simply put, we've seen teams of highly skilled players make the playoffs year in and year out.

with the understanding that there are no guarantees in sports, and that there are always exceptions to the norm/rule, a team of more skilled athletes, will beat a team or lesser athletes, more times than not.

Pursuant to your request, I did some research on the most highly paid baseball players in 2012. Google brought up a list of the top 25 from the USA Today Salaries Database. Following is a list of the players on the top 25 who switched teams for the premium salaries:

AROD - $30M
Vernon Wells - $24.2M
Johan Santana - $23.1M
Mark Texeira - $23.1M
Prince Fielder - $23.0M
C.C. Sabathia - $23.0M
Adrian Gonzalez - $21.9M
Cliff Lee - $21.5M
Carl Crawford - $20.4M
Roy Halladay - $20.0M
Carlos Lee - $19.0M
Alfonso Soriano - $19.0M
Barry Zito - $19.0M
Torii Hunter - $18.5M
Jason Bay - $18.1M
Josh Beckett - $17.0M
Jake Peavy $17.0M

Out of these 17 premium pay free agents, I think only three have performed reasonably well for the premium money including Fielder, Sabathia, and Halladay. Of the three, the jury is still out on Fielder who's only one year into his premium free agent contract. Pujols isn't on the list so perhaps USA Today's list is not complete. In any case, I think it's safe to say that Pujols delivered below expectations with the Angels.

[bmore_ken]

Teixiera has averaged over 30 homers and over 100RBI over the 4 years of his contract so has Arod over the 9 years of his contract.
what exactly is your standard for "perfoming well"?

[hector]

Teixiera has averaged over 30 homers and over 100RBI over the 4 years of his contract so has Arod over the 9 years of his contract.
what exactly is your standard for "perfoming well"?

During 9 years of overpaying AROD, the Yankees have only one WS appearance. His stats in the early years of his Yankee tenure were inflated by steroids and his stats in the last two years have been dismal. To think, the Yankees have five more years of misery to overpay this worthless cheater. AROD has already mailed it in for 2013.

As for Tex, he's hit about .250 the last three of his four years with the Yankees and I'd like to think that $23M a year gets more than .250, 30HR and 100 RBI's. Heck, those are Mark Reynolds type numbers. Would you suggest that the O's spend $23M a year for a Reynolds type?

[weird-O]

Pursuant to your request, I did some research on the most highly paid baseball players in 2012. Google brought up a list of the top 25 from the USA Today Salaries Database. Following is a list of the players on the top 25 who switched teams for the premium salaries:

AROD - $30M
Vernon Wells - $24.2M
Johan Santana - $23.1M
Mark Texeira - $23.1M
Prince Fielder - $23.0M
C.C. Sabathia - $23.0M
Adrian Gonzalez - $21.9M
Cliff Lee - $21.5M
Carl Crawford - $20.4M
Roy Halladay - $20.0M
Carlos Lee - $19.0M
Alfonso Soriano - $19.0M
Barry Zito - $19.0M
Torii Hunter - $18.5M
Jason Bay - $18.1M
Josh Beckett - $17.0M
Jake Peavy $17.0M

Out of these 17 premium pay free agents, I think only three have performed reasonably well for the premium money including Fielder, Sabathia, and Halladay. Of the three, the jury is still out on Fielder who's only one year into his premium free agent contract. Pujols isn't on the list so perhaps USA Today's list is not complete. In any case, I think it's safe to say that Pujols delivered below expectations with the Angels.

ok, so we know these are some of the highest salaries in 2012, and that you think only 3 of them performed to their $$$. I'm not sure how this validates your argument.

[bmore_ken]

During 9 years of overpaying AROD,

One player does not get you to a WS hector. The Yankees issue with getting to the series has been pitching. By the way Reynolds has only gotten to 100 RBI once in his career. Again what is your definition of performance if it isn't 30+ homers and 100+RBIs every year?

[bmore_ken]

ok, so we know these are some of the highest salaries in 2012, and that you think only 3 of them performed to their $$$. I'm not sure how this validates your argument.

It doesn't because he's saying the Jury is still out on Fielder which means he's obviously talking about body of work. If he's talking 2012 Fielder earned his salary.

[hector]

ok, so we know these are some of the highest salaries in 2012, and that you think only 3 of them performed to their $$$. I'm not sure how this validates your argument.

Of course it validates my argument. My position is that premium dollar free agents disappoint far more often than they meet the hopes and expectations of the fool paying the inflated salary. The research that I provided clearly demonstrates this point. The far better route to success is to develop home grown talent and fill in with veterans who are still trying to OVERACHIEVE in order to earn a premium contract.

The reason premium free agents so often under achieve is called "human nature." When you've got it made with a long term guaranteed contract, no-one can take it away and slacking off a bit is to be expected.

[bmore_ken]

The reason premium free agents so often under achieve is called "human nature." When you've got it made with a long term guaranteed contract, no-one can take it away and slacking off a bit is to be expected.

Yep that's why Arod hit 54 homers his 4th year with the Yankeees. That slacker

[hector]

Yep that's why Arod hit 54 homers his 4th year with the Yankeees. That slacker

Do you suppose that steroids played any part in his HR total? Steroids aside, AROD went into semi-retirement in 2011 and 2012 and has already mailed it in for 2013. $30M doesn't buy much these days.

[ivanbalt]

Do you suppose that steroids played any part in his HR total? Steroids aside, AROD went into semi-retirement in 2011 and 2012 and has already mailed it in for 2013. $30M doesn't buy much these days.

Steroids or no steroids, Arod is getting old. Steroids probably could have delayed that, but he's still old.

As for his insane contract, only the Yankees would have given him that.

[bmore_ken]

Do you suppose that steroids played any part in his HR total? Steroids aside, AROD went into semi-retirement in 2011 and 2012 and has already mailed it in for 2013. $30M doesn't buy much these days.

Arod isn't 25 anymore. He's declining but that has nothing to do with his contract. Players don't perform the same at 37 as they did at 25. That's just biology

[hector]

Arod isn't 25 anymore. He's declining but that has nothing to do with his contract. Players don't perform the same at 37 as they did at 25. That's just biology

I thought the whole conversation was about the sensibility of awarding long term premium dollar free agent contracts. The obvious fact that performance declines with age (except in my case) supports my argument that it's non-sensical to try to build a team around long term premium free agent contracts. I wonder how far into the contract Fielder gets before "biology" sets in.

[weird-O]

Of course it validates my argument. My position is that premium dollar free agents disappoint far more often than they meet the hopes and expectations of the fool paying the inflated salary. The research that I provided clearly demonstrates this point. The far better route to success is to develop home grown talent and fill in with veterans who are still trying to OVERACHIEVE in order to earn a premium contract.

The reason premium free agents so often under achieve is called "human nature." When you've got it made with a long term guaranteed contract, no-one can take it away and slacking off a bit is to be expected.

the funny thing is that you seem to really believe what you're slingin' of the 17 players you listed. 11 of them performed very well in 2012. that means not even your selected case study supports your argument "that premium dollar free agents disappoint far more often than they meet the hopes and expectations".

if I needed to go further to actually convince someone who was honestly trying to post this argument, and I know you're not, because this is just your sunspot persona, there are others on that list (Santana for example) who performed to the level of their salaries during most of the contract term. I could break down all 17, but there are limits to how much time I'll spend on your fun and games.

your argument is just too easily defeated.

I fully agree with your comment about the better approach to winning. who wouldn't go that route. if only it was as easy to execute as it is to type on a chatboard. if it was, the Twins, Royals and Indians would be perennial contenders. They develop their talent all the time. but at some point, you need to pony up to keep those players. hence, my inclusion of home grown talents (ex: Cain & Lincecum) who reached the point where the Giants had to pay them market value to keep them. a huge contract extension is the same thing as the addition of a FA. and Cain is performing to the hopes and expectations of his contract.

[hector]

the funny thing is that you seem to really believe what you're slingin' of the 17 players you listed. 11 of them performed very well in 2012. that means not even your selected case study supports your argument "that premium dollar free agents disappoint far more often than they meet the hopes and expectations".

if I needed to go further to actually convince someone who was honestly trying to post this argument, and I know you're not, because this is just your sunspot persona, there are others on that list (Santana for example) who performed to the level of their salaries during most of the contract term. I could break down all 17, but there are limits to how much time I'll spend on your fun and games.

your argument is just too easily defeated.

I fully agree with your comment about the better approach to winning. who wouldn't go that route. if only it was as easy to execute as it is to type on a chatboard. if it was, the Twins, Royals and Indians would be perennial contenders. They develop their talent all the time. but at some point, you need to pony up to keep those players. hence, my inclusion of home grown talents (ex: Cain & Lincecum) who reached the point where the Giants had to pay them market value to keep them. a huge contract extension is the same thing as the addition of a FA. and Cain is performing to the hopes and expectations of his contract.

Which 11 performed up to the level of their compensation in 2012?

Regarding retaining home grown talent, it seems to me the O's do pretty well on that score considering Markakis, Roberts, Jones, etc. Most of the griping on this board is because the O's don't chase free agents from other teams.

[bmore_ken]

I thought the whole conversation was about the sensibility of awarding long term premium dollar free agent contracts. The obvious fact that performance declines with age (except in my case) supports my argument that it's non-sensical to try to build a team around long term premium free agent contracts. I wonder how far into the contract Fielder gets before "biology" sets in.

Lets' see Arod's 37, 2 years ago at age 35 he hit 30 homers with 125 rbi, I think that gives Fielder who's 28 about.... hmm 7 years. I'm pretty sure if he's averaging 30 homers a year for the next 7 years(like Arod) I'm pretty sure Detroit will consider they've gotten their money's worth.

[hector]

Lets' see Arod's 37, 2 years ago at age 35 he hit 30 homers with 125 rbi, I think that gives Fielder who's 28 about.... hmm 7 years. I'm pretty sure if he's averaging 30 homers a year for the next 7 years(like Arod) I'm pretty sure Detroit will consider they've gotten their money's worth.

We can check back in 2018. However, I agree with you that if Fielder delivers 30 HR and 125 RBI's every year for the next six, he'll have earned his contract. He doesn't seem to be steroid dependent so hopefully he can deliver. On the other hand, if he provides two or three decent years and then slacks off the last four, he'll be an underperforming flop like so many other premium pay free agents have turned out to be.

[weird-O]

Regarding retaining home grown talent, it seems to me the O's do pretty well on that score considering Markakis, Roberts, Jones, etc. Most of the griping on this board is because the O's don't chase free agents from other teams.

I agree