July: 18,000 jobs gained
August: 58,000 jobs gained
September: 10,000 jobs gained
October: 51,000 jobs lost
November: 1,000 jobs lost
Total: 34,000 government jobs gained.
I am not a left-winger in the least. Will you address this discrepancy?
Using the exact methodology you have shown us, all of the following statements are “true”, including the one you keep citing:
- 11% of all jobs created in the last three months were government jobs
- 52% of all jobs created in the last four months were government jobs
- 73% of all jobs created in the last five months were government jobs
- 51% of all jobs created in the last six months were government jobs
- 47% of all jobs created in the last seven months were government jobs
- 18% of all jobs created in the past eight months were government jobs
Does it not seem odd to you that the figures could bounce around so much, month-to-month?
Does it bother you that the remaining 2012 month-to-month comparisons are completely nonsensical, since they result in “negative” percentages (because government jobs declined while overall jobs increased)?
Don't these results (including the negative ones) make you wonder whether this is the right way to analyze the BLS data?
For extra credit, if you do still think this is the right way, please explain to us why Breitbart et al., among all of these monthly comparisons, decided to present the five-month one?
Molly's Middle America on people who lie with statistics:
The CNS piece is comparing numbers taken from June and comparing them to numbers taken in November. Now numbers from both the Household and the Establishment Survey are seasonally adjusted, meaning adjusted for variations that happen regularly at various times of the year.
However, the reality is that the number of people who say they are working for the government on the Household Survey goes down during the summer (think teachers), even with the seasonal adjustments, which sometimes can be a bit off. You can see the summer drop in the graph below. In "real" unadjusted jobs numbers, the number of employees in the state "Government: State and Local Education" sectors go down about 2,000,000 each summer.
They reach their nadir in July and start coming back in August. So... unless those seasonal adjustments are really perfect, comparing government numbers in summer with those in the fall is going to be really, really, REALLY deceptive. And the Household numbers seasonal adjustments are often not that perfect and they are much LESS perfect than the Establishment seasonal adjustments.
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