Luck (rookie) is a little down on completion % vs. Flacco ( 5 year vet).
Looking at QBR however, it is a much different picture.
QBR was created as a better measure of a QB's contribution to team success on the playing field. Let's take a look:
QBR - Luck: 65 / Flacco: 46.8
*One area of disparity is clutch weighted points contribution (ACT PLAYS). Take away non-pass impact plays such as hand-offs and you see a higher margin of points contribution per play for Luck.
*Another is improvised scrambles (SCRAM EPA)- i.e. Luck can do things when plays break down as opposed to just standing there.
*Look at EXP Pass EPA. Luck beats Flacco here by 10 basis points. Here we see a metric added to measure the relative value of completions in producing points. In other words, are the completions clutch throws or are they lower impact checkdowns.
*Flacco doesn't take off and run much. That's OK. But when he does, the production value of those rush attempts is less than when Luck does the same (RUSH EPA).
*Most glaring gap in the stats are the number of points contributed by the QB during the season. Luck really pulls away from Flacco on both metrics [QB PAR/PAA]. Luck's numbers are in some fairly elite company there. Check it out.
Offensive Lines Rankings: BAL ranked #14 in pass protection. IND ranked #18.
From Pro Football Outsiders:
Total QBR (listed as just QBR) is a metric created by the ESPN Stats & Information group. Total QBR is based on the expected points added by the quarterback on each play, then adjusts the numbers to a scale of 0-100.
Total QBR incorporates information from game charting, such as passes dropped or thrown away on purpose.
Total QBR splits responsibility on plays between the quarterback, his receivers, and his blockers. Drops, for example, are more on the receiver, as are yards after the catch, and some sacks are more on the offensive line than others.
Total QBR has a clutch factor which adds (or subtracts) value for quarterbacks who perform best (or worst) in high-leverage situations.
Total QBR combines passing and rushing value into one number and differentiates between scrambles and planned runs.
I know the Bengals game had little meaning to either team, however, I am stilling wondering why Harbaugh elected to kicked a FG deep in Bengals territory on 4th and 6 with about a minute and 26 seconds left.
It made no sense, you win or lose on it on 4th and 6, at the Bengals 31 yard line, with 1:26 to go and two timeouts.
Instead he kicks a FG and goes for an onside kick. Only three onside kicks have been recovered by the kicking team all year.
I could see Harbaugh doing the same thing in a playoff game.
Huh......maybe it isn't just ol' WCR. Go figure. Hmmm.. Hey - it's fun. You can rank em' yourself and then see how they stack up on a national level. Go ahead. Do your own version with Flacco at #1 and work your way down from there.
Thanks again for chiming in yesterday. Always good to hear your opinions.
Ya know, I was thinking......That is a really curious name you chose for yourself..."Can you hear me now"
I'm no psychologist, but it's like you have an unfulfilled need from "real life". Like maybe this forum provides you the opportunity for all to see your infinite wisdom on full display. Like - maybe ya feel that people don't pay any attention to you in real life. Just sayin.
Anyway - have a great day. Gotta get ready for work. You know what that's like....right??
The Ravens can win, but it will take 60 minutes of high level play in all factions of the game. Too many times the Colts have come in here for the playoffs with a supposedly weak defense and completely shut down the Ravens' offense. That can't happen. The Ravens' defense has been improving and that must continue. As usual it will probably hinge on mistakes and turnovers. I'd bet on Reed getting an INT.
Indy is a good football team. Luck is the real deal. The Ravens could easily lose this game. I do feel Baltimore is the better team but its the playoffs, that means nothing. If Good Joe shows up, we win, if bad Joe shows up its gonna be a long afternoon.
you are the personficiation of this sage observation-->
Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination.
Stats can be deceiving. The Colts are going to take away ray rice. Pagono is a great D coordinator and will not allow Joe to dump the ball off to Ray Rice. Joe is going to need to have a big day throwing to the WR's
I watched the colts last night on replay. They are a very vanilla team that apears to be winning on emotion. I do expect at least one strip sack from freeney or mathes. Also Luck will make a few mistakes so the Ravens need to capitalize. By the way "Houston is done". They have no heart and appear to lack confidence. The Ravens are more talented and experienced than the Colts and are at home. If they lose this game they should be ashamed of themselves but the way the year has gone for the Ravens and if the game is close in the 4th the Ravens may implode.
As awesome as it would be to see Colts at Broncos in round 2, not happening this year, Ravens beat the Colts on last second FG
I'm not makin these stats up. They are there in the links I've provided. It is readily visible that Luck has a lower completon %. But there is more to it than that. So I went to total QBR rankings to see how they stacked up and provided the link for all to see.
Sorry if that makes ya' all cringe. Jeez.
Smackdown +1. Right.
Go Ravens. If we have a repeat of the Denver game, then it is going to be troublesome for more than just the fans.
I'll lean on my "lampost" pal. You just keep trusting your feelings and opinions shared by relatively few.
Hey - did ya check out the playoff QB ranking scale on ESPN? Really gives you some perspective on how fans across the country see the playoff QB's.
Oh, Right! They are all drunk idiots too - uh, leaning on lamposts, right?
BRB - lemme check how things look this evening..........
OK - I'm back! Good news. Flacco moved up from #10 to #9 on a national level (out of the 12 playoff QBs). He is ranked ahead of: Dalton, Kaepernick and Ponder!! I think they have a combined 7 years of playing experience.
Well - guess that's my lampost for this evening. Lots of idiots out there all over the country. Any way you can "illuminate" them? I mean, they must all be mistaken right? Yeah - you win all right. G'night. Talk to you another day.
Ravens over Colts is the lock game for WC weekend. No chance a rookie QB comes into Baltimore and beats a playoff seasoned team. Ravens by at least 10 points.
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