When the debt ceiling talks really get going, what will happen is:
- the GOP House will propose a "Republican" budget
- then the Senate and White House will propose a "Democratic" agenda
- then the two sides negotiate to mesh the two plans
- Obama will negotiate against himself and remove nearly all the DEM proposals
- He will sign the GOP budget essentially "as is"
- The GOP will claim they were bullied into giving away... well... nothing much of anything
- Obama goes on the air saying he was "bipartisan" by doing what the GOP wanted.
None of that will require shutting down the government or hitting the debt ceiling.