Standing pat

[weenie]

He lost me at Reimold. Does dude still own an O's uniform

ADD is treatable.

[85Knight]

I realize you disagree but Laroche at first and Davis at DH would have made this a better team. The reason there was no increase in payroll is what I said when the season ended. They won 93 with a low payroll, why would they think they needed to spend any more money. Every one of the players on the roster will repeat what they did last year. Players always repeat career years, which quite a few of them had last year

Really, career years? Who had career years last year? I think the argument can be made that most of the players can do better than they did last year.

[can you hear me now!]

career years-- Jones, Davis, Jim Johnson, Gonzalez and Tillman...

played to their career norms-- betemit, weiters, hammel, hardy

markakis' stats extrapolated for a whole season may have edged him towards a career year...

here's the problem with standing pat--- the other teams in the division didn't stand pat, especially the blue jays...if you look at the statistics from last year, they defy explanation...teams that win 93 games and only have one starter with more than 10 wins is extremely rare....they had historic performances in one run games and extra inning games...historic doesn't happen every year....coming back to the league norms would mean they are an under .500 team...

this team has deficiencies that to date have not been addressed, the biggest holes are at 2b, DH and they need at least one more reliable starter....those are the facts....

the offseason has not been any different than the previous 16, angelos doesn't spend because winning doesn't matter to him...he has his MASN money to pad his bank account and any revenue derived from ticket sales is a bonus...

[bmore_ken]

Really, career years? Who had career years last year? I think the argument can be made that most of the players can do better than they did last year.

Adam Jones-career highs in homers, rbi, avg. 2bs. sb
Chris Davis- career highs in homers,rbi, bb,avg for a full season
Jason Hammel-never with an ERA under 4.33, last season 3.43

Do I really need to continue?

[weird-O]

career years-- Jones, Davis, Jim Johnson, Gonzalez and Tillman...markakis' stats extrapolated for a whole season may have edged him towards a career year...

for Jones and Davis, I think it's important to clarify that while they had their best years, they are both still young. every opinion I've heard shares the belief that Jones will get even better. the opinion on Davis is that he probably won't put up bigger numbers, but it's fair to suggest that 2012 represents who he will be for a few seasons.

My opinion of Gonzalez is that he can duplicate his '12 season. Markakis has been a steady guy. he can be that good again.

[bmore_ken]

for Jones and Davis, I think it's important to clarify that while they had their best years, they are both still young. every opinion I've heard shares the belief that Jones will get even better. the opinion on Davis is that he probably won't put up bigger numbers, but it's fair to suggest that 2012 represents who he will be for a few seasons.

My opinion of Gonzalez is that he can duplicate his '12 season. Markakis has been a steady guy. he can be that good again.

You could be right, you could be wrong, but it's a gamble that Duquette is taking

[85Knight]

Adam Jones-career highs in homers, rbi, avg. 2bs. sb
Chris Davis- career highs in homers,rbi, bb,avg for a full season
Jason Hammel-never with an ERA under 4.33, last season 3.43

Do I really need to continue?

I don't include young players who are getting better as having career years. Career years to me are players who overachieved compared to their normal numbers. I think Jones and Davis are in the category of players who are getting better and it's too early to call their success a career year. I think most of the O's had numbers below their career numbers last year. Would we really be surprised if Jones, Hammel and Davis repeated those numbers? I don't think so.

Don't get me wrong though, I'm not saying we should stand pat. I think you should always try to improve.

[weenie]

Adam Jones-career highs in homers, rbi, avg. 2bs. sb
Chris Davis- career highs in homers,rbi, bb,avg for a full season
Jason Hammel-never with an ERA under 4.33, last season 3.43

Do I really need to continue?

Last year, Baseball Prospectus analyzed the careers of all baseball players post WW2 who played at least six yrs in the ML. Statistically, the most likely peak year occurred at age 27. This is of course a general rule subject to standard deviation. But let's look at the O's who will be 27 at some point in '13. That list includes Jones, Davis, Chen, Wieters, Patton and Strop. Each has shown enough upside to anticipate improvement. Will they all, of course not! But I do think more will then won't. Even a sourpuss can't deny that.

In the spirit of full disclosure though, I excluded Hunter, Arrieta and Flaherty since none of those guys has broken through and I know your ADD would kick in and compell you to focus on them instead of the others who actually made stellar contributions to the '12 team.

Regardless, I absolutely think the label "career yr" is a bogus term and it can only fairly be used once a guy is done.

Look, everyone wishes the team added another bat and a glove (1st or 2nd) but it's not our money and the free agent class was relatively weak. And as far as trades are concerned, the ideal time to make deals is in the spring when logjams push veterans out in favor of phenoms.

I sure hope Schoop qualifies as a phenom and nudges grandpa back to Sarasota... but instead we should expect Roberts to improve on '12 by playing in more than 10 games and hitting greater than .188 with at least 1HR. That's all he has to do to improve on '12! For some of the guys, like he, Reimold and Wada the bar is just not very high and I fully expect each to get over those 2012 performance hurdles. Don't you? Come on man!

[bmore_ken]

I fully expect each to get over those 2012 performance hurdles. Don't you? Come on man!

I'll be shocked if Roberts or Reimold play more than 20 games

[weird-O]

I'll be shocked if Roberts or Reimold play more than 20 games

they are both a couple of china dolls. it's too bad, because Reimold looks like he could be good

[Jimmy Jazz]

The Orioles always knew that they had no intention of signing Hamilton or anyone in that pay scale. So I don't understand just letting Mark Reynolds walk away.He played gold glove defense and wanted to be here.
I don't want to hear about his strike outs. All hitters with that kind of power strike out a lot.
I worry that his loss will have a negative effect on this line up when pitchers don't have to pitch around him anymore.

That's not accurate. The closest Pujols has ever gotten to 100 Ks was 93 and that was his rookie year. In 2006 he had 49 HRs and 50 Ks. Reynolds Ks at a prodigious clip. I liked the other aspects of his game but they had to do something about all the Ks in this lineup.

[weird-O]

That's not accurate. The closest Pujols has ever gotten to 100 Ks was 93 and that was his rookie year. In 2006 he had 49 HRs and 50 Ks. Reynolds Ks at a prodigious clip. I liked the other aspects of his game but they had to do something about all the Ks in this lineup.

I totally agree.

unfortunately, the loss of his good D and 30+ HRs will hurt the team far more than they will benefit from the reduced Ks.

they went into the off season with the stated goal of adding a power bat to the middle of the order. instead, they removed a power bat. so they actually need 2 thumpers now.

[can you hear me now!]

for Jones and Davis, I think it's important to clarify that while they had their best years, they are both still young. every opinion I've heard shares the belief that Jones will get even better. the opinion on Davis is that he probably won't put up bigger numbers, but it's fair to suggest that 2012 represents who he will be for a few seasons.

My opinion of Gonzalez is that he can duplicate his '12 season. Markakis has been a steady guy. he can be that good again.

I didn't say they wouldn't get better...however, that's not a given....based on their careers up through 2012, they had their best seasons last year. I think Jones can have better numbers..Davis is a ?....Not sold on Gonzalez....

[bmore_ken]

I didn't say they wouldn't get better...however, that's not a given....based on their careers up through 2012, they had their best seasons last year. I think Jones can have better numbers..Davis is a ?....Not sold on Gonzalez....

I'm not sold on Gonzo, Chen, or Tillman and that's 3/5 of the rotation. Hopefully the Hammel we saw last year is the real Hammel and not the guy he's been for his whole career

[weird-O]

I didn't say they wouldn't get better...however, that's not a given....based on their careers up through 2012, they had their best seasons last year. I think Jones can have better numbers..Davis is a ?....Not sold on Gonzalez....

I know, I was just expanding on the topic, and your post had good points to add to. I almost quoted Ken, but you mentioned more players (particularly Gonzalez) which is a player I wanted to mention.

[weird-O]

I'm not sold on Gonzo, Chen, or Tillman and that's 3/5 of the rotation. Hopefully the Hammel we saw last year is the real Hammel and not the guy he's been for his whole career

this is a fair assessment. I think it's risky to count on Tillman to be who he was after the AS break. he could be that pitcher, but the jury is still out as far as I'm concerned.

I have confidence in Chen. if the league was going to figure him out, I think they would have done it by late last season. especially since he was wearing down from his first 162 game season. I also think he has the potential to be better, because he now knows the demands of a full MLB season, so he can prepare for it better.

I can't really explain why I feel confident in Gonzo. it just seems like his career struggles have been circumstantial more so than talent deficiency.

[Jimmy Jazz]

I totally agree.

unfortunately, the loss of his good D and 30+ HRs will hurt the team far more than they will benefit from the reduced Ks.

they went into the off season with the stated goal of adding a power bat to the middle of the order. instead, they removed a power bat. so they actually need 2 thumpers now.

Yeah but he didn't hit 30+ HRs, he hit 23. I just don't think the team can carry as many Ks as they did last year. It seems clear they decided it was either Davis or Reynolds and Reynolds was the odd man out probably because he makes much more money and it just happened that his contract could be bought out cheaply.

[durango46]

Yeah but he didn't hit 30+ HRs, he hit 23. I just don't think the team can carry as many Ks as they did last year. It seems clear they decided it was either Davis or Reynolds and Reynolds was the odd man out probably because he makes much more money and it just happened that his contract could be bought out cheaply.

to many whiffs in the lineup for sure

however,
in letting Reynolds go they also lost his gold glove (2nd half).

I'm concerned that Davis may possibly struggle at the plate because of defensive woes. What's your opinion on that ?

If they weren't going to sign a power hitting bat they should have kept Reynolds. And I never thought I would have said that.
Just my take though

[Aclobat]

We can only hope AJ produces better than last year. Nick stays healthy all year and we get to see what a full year of Manny will look like. AS for pitching hopefully it falls into place. Hopefully Wada pitches this year.

[Far from home]

I realize you disagree but Laroche at first and Davis at DH would have made this a better team. The reason there was no increase in payroll is what I said when the season ended. They won 93 with a low payroll, why would they think they needed to spend any more money. Every one of the players on the roster will repeat what they did last year. Players always repeat career years, which quite a few of them had last year

This is wrong. You have to have a career before you can have a career year.
Nick didn't play for part of the season.
AJ followed his trend - I think he's going to take a dip this year because he's playing the WBC, but I hope I'm wrong.
Davis didn't have a stellar year - he actually had problems with SOs and they were forced to move him from 1st.
Gonzalez - may have been a career year.
Tillman - velocity, location, and movement changed his performance, always a top prospect and still young
Hammel - maybe a career year, but you can't ignore the increase in velocity
JJ, follows his career path, saves were the only difference
Oday, mostly the same during healthy years
Ayala - worse than with the Yanks
Strop - young, and actually dipped towards the end of the year
Machado - sky is the limit
McLouth - wasn't really that good during the regular season, but solid enough to warrant bringing back
2b was traded away - ? this year
Hardy was horrible at the plate - but his hits were timely, and defense was on par with where he always has been
Wieters is on par defensively, but really wasn't that good at the plate with rate statistics. Overall, solid year, though - not career

Steve Johnson - solid prospect, may have been career year, though
Matusz, Arrieta, Hunter - sucked and were demoted

Saunders was good, not great, and worth bringing back


Where were the career years?