Standing pat

[kudzu]

Where were the career years?

Last year, for the O's as a team. Pure luck they made the playoffs.

And they didn't improve themselves in the offseason.

Rational over/under ? .500

[Far from home]

Last year, for the O's as a team. Pure luck they made the playoffs.

And they didn't improve themselves in the offseason.

Rational over/under ? .500

I disagree. The O's won because they used an Oriole hoards strategy - which I alluded to last year. The O's didn't need a full season of awesome out of specific players - they needed a game or a month of awesome out of players.

This is what you saw.
That is why they won 93 games - because they managed their players and games the way they needed to be. They put players in the best situations to succeed.
They also rode the hot hand.
By sitting on players early in the season, they almost cost their team a playoff spot - they were .500 at midseason despite (at the time), running the top 2 bullpen in baseball and a lineup that had a couple of all star players, all because they stuck with Arrieta, Matusz, and Hunter when all three clearly didn't have the capability to fix their issues.

This season, they are going to use the same strategy. They have crowded starting staffs set up for Norfolk and the O's. They may have to stash some guys at AA - and DD has proven that he knows how to pick projects - and Peterson has shown that he and the minor league coaching staffs can develop players to perform to their capability.

If I were to pick players for progression (I'm hoping I'm wrong about these guys), I would pick AJ (WBC effects), Chen (tired arm - probably later in the season), Gonzalez (how did he get guys out?), and Strop.

I see some regression in record, but they will still win. They will be 10-15 games over .500.

[weird-O]

Yeah but he didn't hit 30+ HRs, he hit 23.

true, but he usually hits 30+ HRs. I expect he'll hit at least 30 HRs this year

I just don't think the team can carry as many Ks as they did last year. It seems clear they decided it was either Davis or Reynolds and Reynolds was the odd man out probably because he makes much more money and it just happened that his contract could be bought out cheaply.

I don't think it was a choice between Davis or Reynolds. because the O's had both players for most of last year (accounting for time missed to injuries). I think the more accurate description is to say they chose Betemit over Reynolds. with MR gone, Davis will get the same amount of ABs. the only difference is, he'll be getting them at 1B rather than DH. Betemit will be getting MR's ABs. this is where it gets ugly. Betemit has never been able to produce as an everyday player. so he's rarely managed to get 300 ABs a year. but in 250-300 ABs he usually strikes out ~100 times. that's just as bad as MR, but without the power, defense, or good eye for walks.

[weird-O]

Last year, for the O's as a team. Pure luck they made the playoffs.

you and PGA place a great deal of weight on the power of luck. PGA believes bad luck kept them down, and you believe good luck helped them up. I think you are both wrong, but that's just one man's opinion.

[Steveg85321]

I have to say I feel offended as a fan if the team chooses to go to war in the AL East with the current lineup. It's a pretty cynical response to last season's success to assume that if they were good enough last year they will be this year as well. The only thing they did to improve offensively is get rid of Reynolds. I think that is such BS that I cannot believe they will not do something more, but if they stand pat, I will be really disappointed.

[weird-O]

I have to say I feel offended as a fan if the team chooses to go to war in the AL East with the current lineup. It's a pretty cynical response to last season's success to assume that if they were good enough last year they will be this year as well. The only thing they did to improve offensively is get rid of Reynolds. I think that is such BS that I cannot believe they will not do something more, but if they stand pat, I will be really disappointed.

the needs were few, and the options to fill those needs were even fewer. but you're right, they should have added someone that was more than just another rehab project off the "low risk/high reward" shelf.

someone said something interesting on MLB radio. he said, the O's are sitting tight with what is essentially their 2012 team. and that team is good enough to compete for the division. but if they start off slow in their first 30 games, they will lose all those fans that came back in the 2nd half of last year. and those fans would be justified to walk away. he estimated that 20% of their fanbase will turn back away from the team if they stumble coming out of the gate. and he attributes this to the decision to stand pat.

[durango46]

the needs were few, and the options to fill those needs were even fewer. but you're right, they should have added someone that was more than just another rehab project off the "low risk/high reward" shelf.

someone said something interesting on MLB radio. he said, the O's are sitting tight with what is essentially their 2012 team. and that team is good enough to compete for the division. but if they start off slow in their first 30 games, they will lose all those fans that came back in the 2nd half of last year. and those fans would be justified to walk away. he estimated that 20% of their fanbase will turn back away from the team if they stumble coming out of the gate. and he attributes this to the decision to stand pat.

Have to say I agree with the guy on MLB radio... And what a shame that would be. Finally a winning season..... the fans start showing back up to support the team......and the front office decides to go cheapo AGAIN.
Go ahead and lose them again, and maybe for good this time. Some say who cares about those fakey fans ???? I'm not buying that at all. All those losing seasons and ownership is going to let them down again.

With many of the pieces in place, why wouldn't they go get that 1 bat they need ? Did they not enjoy last season? I know I did.....

I know, I know fans can't possibly know what they're talking about.... I call BS and can't tell you how much I disagree with that train of thought...We have some very knowledgeable fans here,
Not too mention.......see Cam Cameron and the Ravens. Fans called for his arse for the last 2 years. AH...guess we we're right their also. Even Cam admitted that one..

score one for the fans

end of rant

[weird-O]

Have to say I agree with the guy on MLB radio... And what a shame that would be. Finally a winning season..... the fans start showing back up to support the team......and the front office decides to go cheapo AGAIN.
Go ahead and lose them again, and maybe for good this time. Some say who cares about those fakey fans ???? I'm not buying that at all. All those losing seasons and ownership is going to let them down again.

With many of the pieces in place, why wouldn't they go get that 1 bat they need ? Did they not enjoy last season? I know I did.....

I know, I know fans can't possibly know what they're talking about.... I call BS and can't tell you how much I disagree with that train of thought...We have some very knowledgeable fans here,
Not too mention.......see Cam Cameron and the Ravens. Fans called for his arse for the last 2 years. AH...guess we we're right their also. Even Cam admitted that one..

score one for the fans

end of rant

PGA has always been convinced that he could win on the cheap. for years he told his inner circle that he didn't need to spend money and he could beat the system. we know this from repeated stories that came out from former FO people who left because they were tired of his iron fist leadership.

I think last year did nothing but convince him that he was right. also, at no point do the fans enter into the equation. he has his deal with MLB, and he has MASN. he doesn't need you or me.

DD & Buck did amazing things with the team. they've been forced to win on the cheap, at least they were able to do it. no one else was managed to.

[hector]

I disagree. The O's won because they used an Oriole hoards strategy - which I alluded to last year. The O's didn't need a full season of awesome out of specific players - they needed a game or a month of awesome out of players.

This is what you saw.
That is why they won 93 games - because they managed their players and games the way they needed to be. They put players in the best situations to succeed.
They also rode the hot hand.
By sitting on players early in the season, they almost cost their team a playoff spot - they were .500 at midseason despite (at the time), running the top 2 bullpen in baseball and a lineup that had a couple of all star players, all because they stuck with Arrieta, Matusz, and Hunter when all three clearly didn't have the capability to fix their issues.

This season, they are going to use the same strategy. They have crowded starting staffs set up for Norfolk and the O's. They may have to stash some guys at AA - and DD has proven that he knows how to pick projects - and Peterson has shown that he and the minor league coaching staffs can develop players to perform to their capability.

If I were to pick players for progression (I'm hoping I'm wrong about these guys), I would pick AJ (WBC effects), Chen (tired arm - probably later in the season), Gonzalez (how did he get guys out?), and Strop.

I see some regression in record, but they will still win. They will be 10-15 games over .500.

OK, you're predicting the O's win between 86 and 89 games next season. You're very close, but ever so slightly high. The O's will go 84-78 in 2013.

[hector]

true, but he usually hits 30+ HRs. I expect he'll hit at least 30 HRs this year



I don't think it was a choice between Davis or Reynolds. because the O's had both players for most of last year (accounting for time missed to injuries). I think the more accurate description is to say they chose Betemit over Reynolds. with MR gone, Davis will get the same amount of ABs. the only difference is, he'll be getting them at 1B rather than DH. Betemit will be getting MR's ABs. this is where it gets ugly. Betemit has never been able to produce as an everyday player. so he's rarely managed to get 300 ABs a year. but in 250-300 ABs he usually strikes out ~100 times. that's just as bad as MR, but without the power, defense, or good eye for walks.

I agree with your critical comments on Betemit. Since he and Nick J were brought in to replace the Impaler last season, how about role reversal and replace Betemit with Hall of Famer Vlad the Impaler in 2013?

[kudzu]

you and PGA place a great deal of weight on the power of luck. PGA believes bad luck kept them down, and you believe good luck helped them up. I think you are both wrong, but that's just one man's opinion.

Congrats, that's the first time I've ever been put in the same thought process with PGA.

[weird-O]

Congrats, that's the first time I've ever been put in the same thought process with PGA.

no it's not actually, I pointed that out to you before. at the time, you offered an elaborate explanation chock full of circular redefinitions or your original comment. of course, you then proceeded to make the same ridiculous "they were lucky" post many times over.

looks like you're still having fun stirring the pot with that one.

[Dew Jones]

One of the biggest reasons they haven't spent is the raises the arb eligible guys are going to get, i heard around 10 mill but maybe not idk. That has figured big time into not pursuing a costly free agent imo. I really think the AL East had a bad year, O's couldn't hit in the playoffs, Yanks couldn't hit in next round. Was a good year to be in the east. Tampa will be healthier, Soxs still in rebuild mode but spending and Toronto has all the good Marlins left. I see Tampa and Toronto upgrades leaving the O's to compete for third unless Davis, Jones, Machado, Wieters and Hardy have career power numbers and one pitcher steps up and grabs 18 + wins.

[weird-O]

One of the biggest reasons they haven't spent is the raises the arb eligible guys are going to get, i heard around 10 mill but maybe not idk. That has figured big time into not pursuing a costly free agent imo. I really think the AL East had a bad year, O's couldn't hit in the playoffs, Yanks couldn't hit in next round. Was a good year to be in the east. Tampa will be healthier, Soxs still in rebuild mode but spending and Toronto has all the good Marlins left. I see Tampa and Toronto upgrades leaving the O's to compete for third unless Davis, Jones, Machado, Wieters and Hardy have career power numbers and one pitcher steps up and grabs 18 + wins.

here are some thoughts I've had about TB this season. They traded away 2 pitchers they really rely on, and that trade only returned near ready MLB talent. They were all minor league players. Couple that with the loss of Upton, and they may take a small step backward until Myers can come up and have an impact.

[kudzu]

no it's not actually, I pointed that out to you before. at the time, you offered an elaborate explanation chock full of circular redefinitions or your original comment. of course, you then proceeded to make the same ridiculous "they were lucky" post many times over.

looks like you're still having fun stirring the pot with that one.

The 2012 Orioles were indeed lucky.

[weird-O]

The 2012 Orioles were indeed lucky.

that's the spirit Hector.

[bmore_ken]

The 2012 Orioles were indeed lucky.

Every team has a certain element of luck, the O's were due

[bmore_ken]

One of the biggest reasons they haven't spent is the raises the arb eligible guys are going to get, i heard around 10 mill but maybe not idk.

Wieters $5.5M
Chris Davis $3.3M
Patton $1.82M
Matusz $1.6M

Johnson, Hammel and O'Day still on deck

[Aclobat]

Every team has a certain element of luck, the O's were due

the O's were due? lol I guess. That means the Cubs are going to win the WS now because they are due? There is no such thing as luck. Circumstances dictate what happens.

[bmore_ken]

the O's were due? lol I guess. That means the Cubs are going to win the WS now because they are due? There is no such thing as luck. Circumstances dictate what happens.

You must not watch much sports. Luck is very prevalent in professional sports.