Silver should stick to baseball and predicting Obama wins.
Nate Silver was not alone in picking the 49ers to win the Super Bowl
Unlike baseball, football is fiendishly difficult to predict. Ask the stats gurus who chose not to back the Ravens on Sunday
The Baltimore Ravens defeated the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII and in the process they beat the odds-makers too. Football Outsiders, Nate Silver, NFL Advanced Stats and Las Vegas all had the 49ers as favorites. That fits a pattern this NFL postseason – of apparently bad predictions.
Silver appeared on ESPN before the divisional round and predicted a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl. The Seahawks lost that weekend, in a close game against the Falcons. The Patriots went down the following week, to the Ravens. To be fair to Nate, he was merely reciting the Football Outsiders odds at this time.
Football Outsiders and NFL Advanced Stats, which are at the forefront of NFL analytics, had fine first rounds, Football Outsiders only missing the Bengals-Texans game and NFL Advanced Stats going perfect.
In the division round, both mis-predicted the Seahawks vs Falcons and Ravens vs Broncos games. They both had the 49ers winning in the championship round, but had the Patriots winning too. Combine it all and Football Outsiders picks picked six out of 11, or were correct 55% of the time; NFL Advanced Stats was right seven out of 11, or 64%....