Ace Pitcher vs. Cleanup Hitter

[crawdaddy]

In case anyone is interested, over at my blog I put up a quick little study as to who has greater opportunity to affect a team . . . a starting pitcher or a clean up hitter. I used Guthrie and Millar as the examples. It isn't a perfect study, but it is certainly something to extend the conversation with some facts. If someone wants to do something more in depth, I'd be happy to link it or publish it on my blog.

I am trying to move more of my stat ideas over there and not take up as much space over here. Also, it will make it easier to re-find things.

[crawdaddy]

I guess I should give a summary in case you don't want to go over. Basically, a cleanup hitter is worth about 20% more than a SP in a 5 man rotation and 5% less than a SP in a 4 man rotation.

again, very rough study.

[KakesForROY]

Nice work. It's not exactly rigorous, but it does a good job of making the point. I definitely buy the conclusion (that's why I said go for the hitter).

[crawdaddy]

Originally Posted by KakesForROY

Nice work. It's not exactly rigorous, but it does a good job of making the point. I definitely buy the conclusion (that's why I said go for the hitter).

yeah, i'd love to see someone run with it and do a good study. i am just not well-versed enough to do that. i am interested in sabermetrics, but i am definitely not a sabermetrician.

[crawdaddy]

Originally Posted by Shamequa

it doesnt take into account the effect that the ace pitcher has on preserving the bullpen, so its of no benefit to THIS discussion.

It applies to a better team, a team that has no weaknesses, no holes, but we are talking about a very young team with a very young and inexperienced rotation and bullpen.

Its completely different, and you keep ignoring that salient fact.

well, it is of benefit to this discussion. your point is also part of this discussion. see, the discussion is based on the value of a starting pitcher on a team. there are also other points.

now, i can directly address your point, which is PART of the discussion. the most an ace pitcher averages per game is 6.7 IP. league average is about 5.7 IP innings. a healthy ace pitches 35 starts at most.

so. 35 IP saved? you are writing that 35 IP will save a bullpen from being burned out.

[MC]

Interesting, and an exceptional blog (hope you wouldn't mind an interloper dropping his $0.02 every now and then.)

Having been a statistical assistant in my grad school days (TA), I've become very skeptical of what actually can be measured. In particular, I'm very skeptical over some of the new defenstive statistics. But I have to respect the thought process behind them (even if I find the methodology flawed.)

In your case, I certainly respect the thought process and the method to which you get there. I think the comment above about the ace's impact on the rest of staff is very valid. If, in today's game, you have a bona fide ace, who gives you 220+ innings, those are less innings you have to rely on your bullpen, particularly mediocre middle relief.

That said, I've always operated under the premise that over the course of a 162 season, a bona fide run producer will contribute more than a bona fide ace. In other words, over the course of a season, Alex Rodriguez will contribute more than Johan Santana.

But in a short series, which you acknowledge is much harder to judge becaus of the variables, I'd rather have a Santana.

[Jaz]

One thing that reduces the effectiveness of the hitter though is that he can be pitched around. The ace can possibly affect 27 outs per week while the hitter can only affect 15-20 usually, and he can be intentionally walked.

[MC]

Originally Posted by Jaz

One thing that reduces the effectiveness of the hitter though is that he can be pitched around. The ace can possibly affect 27 outs per week while the hitter can only affect 15-20 usually, and he can be intentionally walked.

True, but that also increases his ob%, which opens up additional run producing opportunities for those batting behind him.

[crawdaddy]

Originally Posted by MC

Interesting, and an exceptional blog (hope you wouldn't mind an interloper dropping his $0.02 every now and then.)

Having been a statistical assistant in my grad school days (TA), I've become very skeptical of what actually can be measured. In particular, I'm very skeptical over some of the new defenstive statistics. But I have to respect the thought process behind them (even if I find the methodology flawed.)

In your case, I certainly respect the thought process and the method to which you get there. I think the comment above about the ace's impact on the rest of staff is very valid. If, in today's game, you have a bona fide ace, who gives you 220+ innings, those are less innings you have to rely on your bullpen, particularly mediocre middle relief.

That said, I've always operated under the premise that over the course of a 162 season, a bona fide run producer will contribute more than a bona fide ace. In other words, over the course of a season, Alex Rodriguez will contribute more than Johan Santana.

But in a short series, which you acknowledge is much harder to judge becaus of the variables, I'd rather have a Santana.

thanks, feel free to impart some knowledge on the blog and i'd be happy to put up interesting things there. i will occaisionally go into a elementary data exercise, but that is not my strong suit. i am interested in sabermetrics, but am not a sabermetrician. just like i am interested in pro baseball, but i am not a pro baseball player.

i agree. in a short series, an ace pitcher is much more valuable than he is over the course of a full season with the constraint of a 5 man rotation. it seems to me that the smartest thing to do would be to go back to the 4 man rotation, but enforce stricter pitch limits. right now an ace throws about 100 pitches to 26 batters over 5 days of work. that is about 3400 pitches a year and about 220 IP. you reduce that to 90 pitches to 23 batters over 4 days. that is 3600 pitches a year and about 235 IP.

so your 4 best starters get an extra 60 IP over the year and your 5 man drops that much. keep in mind that the 4 best guys change temperally due to injuries, trades, performance, etc.

perhaps the best thing about this is that your starting pitchers will typically leave games before they are completely tired, which should reduce strain on their arms as fatigue alters their mechanics in adverse ways.

[crawdaddy]

Originally Posted by MC

True, but that also increases his ob%, which opens up additional run producing opportunities for those batting behind him.

and, as mentioned in my study, not all at bats are worth the same for the starting pitcher. getting a 9 hole guy out is far less valuable than a cleanup hitter because the 9 hole guy is less likely to have guys on base (and this is ignoring the fact that the 9 hitter is probably a worse hitter than the 4 hitter). the 4 hitter will see many more high leverage situations than a starting pitcher will over the course of their respective at bats.

[crawdaddy]

using data even from 10 years ago to show how far pitchers go into games ignores what pitchers are currently doing. few pitchers go that deep into games. again . . . 5.7 innings vs 7.7 innings. that is at most 70 IP a year. that is a liberal estimation and i think it is more true to see that 35 IP is being saved with an ace pitcher who also goes deep into games. your healthiest bullpen will consist of 10 pitchers. that equates to 7 innings more for each over the course of a year. that is about 1 extra inning per month for each pitcher.

[crawdaddy]

Originally Posted by Shamequa

1. Look at Webb and Sabathia from LAST year, not ten years ago.
2. Ignore league averages and look at what Loewen and Dcab do.

League averages are meaningless if they dont comport with orioles averages.

Anyway, we will have to agree to disagree. You seem to forget the fact that I keep saying I agree with your premise if it were to be applied TO ANOTHER TEAM but not with respect to this Oriole crop. You wont even acknowledge that little olive branch.

I am acknowledging that in my reply. Try to consider this. Our base line Oriole starter will throw about 5 and 2/3 innings (see how I used an Oriole average?). You have stated that. Let's just give an ace pitcher 7 and 2/3 innings per start (see how I used the best possible condition?). That is a difference of 2 innings per start. Over the course of the year, 70 innings. Your healthiest bullpen goes through 10 pitchers . . . so your relief pitchers will have to throw about 1 extra inning per month.

I do not think 1 extra inning per month for each reliever is going to tire them out. Now, if you talk about 2 or 3 pitchers who can go deep, then I will agree you will start to see a significant effect. One single pitcher is not going to give you that.

[Far from home]

Originally Posted by crawdaddy

I guess I should give a summary in case you don't want to go over. Basically, a cleanup hitter is worth about 20% more than a SP in a 5 man rotation and 5% less than a SP in a 4 man rotation.

again, very rough study.

I agree with the process, and I don't argue the results in this case, but I think you need to use the prototypes, hopefully from the same team.
For instance, use the 4 hitter from the Indians and Sabathia, maybe over a 3 year period to account for fluctuation. Also, you could look at Vlad and the Angels aces...
Otherwise, very analytically sound.

[Far from home]

Originally Posted by Shamequa

Well stated. Stats are wonderful, but they cannot be examined in a vacuum, right?

Which is why I insist that the current orioles pitchers be examined, Loewen and DCAB specifically, and that leageu averages be ignored.

Loewen and DCab aren't aces.
It scuttles the data.
If you took the Ace and No 4 hitters from every team, it still might still directly affect the data, because you have teams (like the O's and the Royals), who don't either have an ace or a true no 4 hitter, or both.
The only way to really measure it is from the ideal, because that is what an ace and a no 4 hitter are supposed to produce.

[crawdaddy]

FFH, yeah it is a rudimentary study. I have no intent on expanding it though. Others are sure welcome and I would love to read them and publish appropriate ones on my blog.

It isnt about production though. It is about opportunity. Millar vs Hafner or whatever isn't comparable in this situation because what we are really comparing are the three or four hitters proceeding the cleanup hitters. I did not evaluate production at all and think it really isn't applicable.

With regard to getting up and down as relievers. I am not sure how to test this for or against . . . I imagine there isn't much difference between the number of times a guy gets up from Cabrera vs Clemens unless the better pitcher is completing a large percentage of games. Maybe guys get up in the second and sit back down for Cabrera and then eventually replace him in the 6th. I imagine guys get up in the fifth, sit down, and replace your ace in the 7th or 8th.

[Boogs BBQ]

Originally Posted by crawdaddy

FFH, yeah it is a rudimentary study. I have no intent on expanding it though. Others are sure welcome and I would love to read them and publish appropriate ones on my blog.

It isnt about production though. It is about opportunity. Millar vs Hafner or whatever isn't comparable in this situation because what we are really comparing are the three or four hitters proceeding the cleanup hitters. I did not evaluate production at all and think it really isn't applicable.

With regard to getting up and down as relievers. I am not sure how to test this for or against . . . I imagine there isn't much difference between the number of times a guy gets up from Cabrera vs Clemens unless the better pitcher is completing a large percentage of games. Maybe guys get up in the second and sit back down for Cabrera and then eventually replace him in the 6th. I imagine guys get up in the fifth, sit down, and replace your ace in the 7th or 8th.

Also depends on the manager, and it was a HUGE criticism of Perlozzo. Pithcers would say they never knew when they were gonna be used and he would get em up and warm em up, sit em down for 2 innings, get em up again and warm em up, and not use em.

I think that takes its toll if they arent used to it.

Interesting thread. Kind of reminds me of an old "catchers era" discussion I have had with several old timers who are huge into picking apart stats and trying to find deeper meaning.

[KakesForROY]

I think it's important to consider not only what they do, but what they are expected to do. It is more likely that a pitcher will miss time than a hitter. Also, a #4 hitter may have an effect on defense (which effects all the pitchers) which may counter-act the "bullpen saving" of the ace by some amount. I would think that whatever statistic you look at (VORP, WARP, Win Shares, etc.) the batter will come out slightly ahead. On this team, an ace may be a little more valuable this year, depending on which position the #4 hitter plays (and thus, who he would replace).