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What is the percent success rate of onside kicks?


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#1 jdovi

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Posted 09 February 2010 - 11:41 PM

I'm still trying to figure out if Sean Payton had iron you know whats or was he just foolish. Does anyone know the success rate of onside kicks in the NFL? I would be suprised if the success rate is greater then 15-20% which i would say, although it was successful, it was a very high risk decision.

#2 Dave A.

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Posted 10 February 2010 - 12:04 AM

Between 2003 and 2006 onsides kicks were recovered about 20% of the time.

But.....since 2000, the recovery rate of unexpected onsides kicks has been slightly over 60% (yep, true).


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#3 Oriole Fan From New York

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Posted 10 February 2010 - 12:21 AM

I'm still trying to figure out if Sean Payton had iron you know whats or was he just foolish.

Does anyone know the success rate of onside kicks in the NFL? I would be suprised if the success rate is greater then 15-20% which i would say, although it was successful, it was a very high risk decision.


It's quite possible that neither is true. If you look at the replay, EVERY SINGLE COLT that was on the front line was shocked at the onside kick. They all took a step backward BEFORE the Saints kicker booted the ball, ASSUMING that he would be kicking deep. I think that Sean Payton just made a good, alert, savvy coaching decision, and he guessed right that The Colts would be napping......... Which would mean that he was neither foolish, nor "balls of stone", so to speak... He just made a good, calculated coaching decision.......

ALSO

When looking at the statistics for onside kick success rate, you have to take into consideration that ALMOST ALL onside kicks are made WHEN EVERYBODY IN THE STADIUM knows that they are coming.......... Which would obviously make it much tougher for the kicking team to recover.............. The Saints' onside kick came WHEN NOBODY IN THE STADIUM was expecting it.......... Which would significantly increase their chances of recovering the kick.

#4 TheJoeFlaccoShow

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Posted 10 February 2010 - 12:24 AM

Between 2003 and 2006 onsides kicks were recovered about 20% of the time.

But.....since 2000, the recovery rate of unexpected onsides kicks has been slightly over 60% (yep, true).


http://www.advancedn...e-to-start.html


The problem is there is not enough data to get an accurate measurement since they are attempted so infrequently.

You would have to go back 50 years and even then you would not have enough of a sample size.

#5 mdrunning

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Posted 10 February 2010 - 01:09 AM

Way, way back in the day (before the days of the NFL), the success rate of onside kicks was probably close to 100 percent. That's because there was no rule mandating that the ball travel 10 yards before the kicking team could recover it; all they had to do was let the ball hit the ground and it was a legal play. As a result, teams almost always chose to kick off at the beginning of a game.

#6 isaacb128935

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Posted 10 February 2010 - 02:18 AM

18.

:)

#7 CTFAN

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Posted 10 February 2010 - 05:34 AM

The problem is there is not enough data to get an accurate measurement since they are attempted so infrequently.

You would have to go back 50 years and even then you would not have enough of a sample size.


The stats are misleading because most onside kicks do not have the element of surprise, which makes a huge difference IMO. Typically, an onside kick attempt is by the trailing team near the end of a game. It's expected and defended.
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#8 Ravenswintitle

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Posted 10 February 2010 - 07:18 AM

The stats are misleading because most onside kicks do not have the element of surprise, which makes a huge difference IMO. Typically, an onside kick attempt is by the trailing team near the end of a game. It's expected and defended.


exactly right; they had the element of surprise in their favor; usually onside kicks are only seen when a team is desparate and running out of time, thus the low percentage.
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