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Orioles Winter begins with....?

Winter Moves

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#1 escheinersold

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 12:48 PM

  1. First step sign our guys to extension as the core players to set up the next 5 years success- Davis, Weiters, Tillman, Manny, Hardy and Johnson. Some would think Manny could wait since he has 2-3 years left before we need to deal with him. He is the future centerpiece. Signing him now will be cheaper than 2-3 years from now to a 7-10 year deal. Weiters is the biggest question mark. Will Boras allow him to sign with free agency waiting in 2015? If not then trade him and get the farm system from another organization. McCann is expected to get 5 years for $75 -$80. His bat is more effective than Matt's but his throw outs and defense are a little less. So offering Matt 5 years for $80 is a realistic number. Boras also has Davis. One year at defense and offense he is expected is not worth $25 a year. Offering and average of $18-$20 for a 4 year deal is right inline. You could add a 5 and 6-year option. Tillman is set by the Linecum deal in my frame. He has had 1 year but is young and bright future. Offering 3 years with 4 and 5-year options at an overage of $14 per year seems proper. This will answer what we need and what 2014 may look like more than anything else.

2. Our free agents are not the tops of the line. Signing BRob and McLouth depend on how much. Letting all the rest go including Feldman (at best a 4 or 5 position starter on an contender) is going to add money to the fold to actually consider a free agent signing or a trade. We need to find a Number 2 position if we cannot come up with a number 1 position. Tillman next year is still young. I would like to see him in the number 2 position for his final development piece. We need money be it number 1 or 2 position. Quality over Quantity needs to be a mantra moving forward. Remembering “IF” we sign a top free agent it is not just the money but draft  that we need to be cautious with.  The draft position should be protected UNLESS this is a guaranteed top quality young talent we will have for years.

3. OBP, RISP, CLUTCH are the qualifications and requirements for any offense added. Hitting Lefties is an added need. BRob is a perfect offensive piece to model what we need. Not Home Runs but an offensive piece that goes deep in count wearing the pitcher out and able to get the hit out of pitchers frustration. Carols Beltran comes to mind. He could help with this teams offense. He will cost $15 plus per year. Sign to a 1-year with 2 years options if it can be done.  Another piece could be Kendrick Morales.

4. Bench depth was even less than poor this year. Outside of Flaherty and Valencia I was less than satisfied. Let them all go. Look for Defense and OBP in each piece. Ben Zobrist may not make it out of Tampa. But if he does pay him, get him, .... He is the most versatile and dangerous OBP hitter we faced this year. His offensive numbers do not show it but he destroyed the teams in the Eastern Division.

5. Brian Matusz, McFarland, Gausman… from bullpen needs to be given shot at a starter role. But I would not go so far as to ruin the bullpen. It was a good bullpen last year. It was over worked and tired after the all star break form the over work. The minors are not ready to put someone else on the 25-man roster. Rodriguez, …. all needing parts if not all of 2014 to develop more. It could be IF we determine that Gausman in a later part of the year is best to be stretched, worked and pitch development to be a starter than send him to the minors for a period.

6. I am concerned about the possible impediment no matter what is done on player from to our success. As much as the aesthetics are the best in mlb at Camden Yards, it is a serious detriment to the pitching of our team. The free agent quality pitchers that will not come here easily exemplify this. The fences in the power alleys need to be moved from the area left field side of bullpen to the score board back 10 15 feet. Any seats lost can be made up with another addition to upper deck on right and left. Because of the weather (warm weather air currents) it is a death trap for pitching.

 

 

Money is going to be needed to make the next step. The next step is to be a significant contender. It requires talent and deep bench and minors. Possibly the MOST IMPORTANT DECISION is not the Dan’s and Buck’s. It lies with Peter Angelos to open the wallet and let Dan and Buck use both hands. It cannot be with talk or with minor moves. It needs to be with action and major moves as I describe in Number 1, 2 and 3. If the Orioles are the number 7 position in financial strength this says the money is available from the tv, MASN, and attendance to “Pay-It-Forward”.

 

I admit to not knowing the minors of other teams and some of the under the rador players but here is a nice list to consider

Kedrys Morales, Corry Hart, Rick Nolasco (probably resigned), Tim Hudson (price down with injury but a Duquette type of move for rehabbing), Bronson Arryo (old but innings eater and coming off a good year)…

Players that would cost a number 1 draft choice (?)- Carlos, Beltran, Sin-Soo-Shoo, Erwin Santana, … The money to these guys would need to be justified and gathered from not signing some of our people.

 

“IF” the do try to sign Weiters to extension now I expect (prediction) him to balk with Boras driving the issue. TRADE him. The dodgers would take Mat in a heart beat over McCann and would give significant parts of minors pitching and an mlb roster top pitcher. I want Matt. But I am in the corner of Bucks remarks from 2years ago- We want players that want to be here. Put it in action by signing.


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#2 bmore_ken

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 01:03 PM

Manny's agent is not worth the money he's being paid if he suggests Manny sign a long term deal now. a long term deal  for him now benefits the O's not him. In three years he's going to own the free agent market

 

Boras doesn't do extensions. End of that story.

 

Signing Davis is a no brainer for both sides. The question will be is Peta Boy willing to pony up the cash. This is a guy who just had a 52 homer season. If I'm his agent Peta Boy's not gettign a hometown discount

 

It's time to move on from BRob. McClouth should be cheap and he's reliable

 

The biggest issue is Angelos, which has been the biggest problem the last decade


Edited by bmore_ken, 31 October 2013 - 01:03 PM.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#3 weird-O

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 03:40 PM

I've shared this thought before, but I'll mention it here since it's relevant to the topic. Wieters will be 30.5 yrs old when he becomes a FA. like any ballplayer, he'll be looking for job security. putting aside the $$$ he'll commend, the real issue will be length of contract. Boras will ask for 10 years and settle for 6. so MW will be 31 when he starts his 6 yr contract. it's a risky business decision to offer 6 years to a 31 yr old catcher. not unless the long term goal is to have him transition into a DH role toward he end of the contract.

 

the 2014 O's need the same thing the 2013 O's needed: LF, 2B, DH

 

I like Nate, and if they re-sign him, that's a good move. but if the team is looking to upgrade the offense this is really the only vacant position to do it in. however, they could also bring in a player to rotate in and out of defensive positions while he mostly serves as the DH. 2B is probably already spoken for. for starters, the market at that position is thin. and Schoop is probably going to get the job, unless they bring back BRob. they kept Schoop with the big club thru most of Sept, without using him. that was not just a happenstance. Buck wanted him to be with the club thru a pennant race. he's being groomed to start with the big club in '14. the return of BRob is not a totally bad idea. he won't be getting $10M/yr, so his 2014 pay will be more in line with his productivity. he's a switch hitting veteran bat who works the count. that's a plus.

 

I'm not talking about pitching, because the O's don't invest in impact pitchers.  


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#4 weenie

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 05:48 PM

"2B is probably already spoken for. for starters, the market at that position is thin. and Schoop is probably going to get the job, unless they bring back BRob".  

 

In terms of cost, Infante or Roberts is affordable but neither is a marked improvement.  But with Roberts $10M salary cleared, I got to thinking about a certain allegedly cantankerous fellow with 4 yrs and $50M left on his contract out in Ohio.  If the reports are true that Cincy wants to dump their gold glove second baseman due to his contract, and if you look at what their catching resources are, Wieters and Britton for Phillips and a starting pitcher might make sense for both sides.  It may be robbing Peter to pay Paul but a multi-player deal between two teams with playoff potential might work out for both. A 2014 infield with three gold glovers will do wonders for an average pitching rotation. 


Edited by weenie, 31 October 2013 - 05:49 PM.


#5 weird-O

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 09:49 AM

In terms of cost, Infante or Roberts is affordable but neither is a marked improvement.  But with Roberts $10M salary cleared, I got to thinking about a certain allegedly cantankerous fellow with 4 yrs and $50M left on his contract out in Ohio.  If the reports are true that Cincy wants to dump their gold glove second baseman due to his contract, and if you look at what their catching resources are, Wieters and Britton for Phillips and a starting pitcher might make sense for both sides.  It may be robbing Peter to pay Paul but a multi-player deal between two teams with playoff potential might work out for both. A 2014 infield with three gold glovers will do wonders for an average pitching rotation. 

it seems that adding Phillips would be a serious upgrade to the line up. but I looked at his stats, and all of his #s have declined over the last 2 seasons (except HRs. he's stayed at 18/per season for a few years). if he's trending downward, the O's could be paying for past performance, rather than future production. at 32, it's possible that he has already peaked. still, at $12M-ish/yr, the contract doesn't seem so outlandish that it makes the risk too high. and it would balance out the loss of Hardy (I really get the sense this will be his last season with the O's). a DP combo of Manny to BP would be a tight defense. while I don't watch Reds games, I think he's a clutch hitter. that's something the O's desperately need. I grew very tired of those situation where they had a man on 3B, with no outs, and stranded him because the next 3 batters struck out or grounded out to the pitcher.

 

I miss Eddie. that's a man who could deliver a deep fly ball to allow the runner to tag up.

 

I wasn't aware of any issues with BP's temperament, but I think he's friends with AJ (from what I've seen on the twitters), so I'm sure he would keep him in check. he's this team's F-Robby.

 

but all of this leads back to the problem of who will catch for the O's.  


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#6 Jimmy Jazz

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 03:03 PM

Phillips had an OBP of .310 this year and he does seem to be heading the wrong way. 

 

On the other hand, with RISP he was:  .338/.404/.469.  O's desperately could've used someone like that this year.



#7 escheinersold

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 06:57 AM

You mention Peter ponying up is the major issue. I contend that  I think the wallet is open yet not used to date by either McPhail or Duquette. A little bit of guessing but I thin they are being cautious based on their understanding of the Poor Experiences that drove Peter to skimping-Bell,..... So I see in an article in the Sun their may be a Wind Change in Duquette on buying free agents that could cost a draft pick. This too mean more serious money. But I think they need to be sure of the injury history and cautious where the play will be for 2014 and 2015.  All this said I think these are the moves possible as I stated above

First, Attend to our people.  One of you think Davis is a no-brainer. He will sign and for no home town discount. No discount needed. But too no premiums need to be applied as Boroas seems to always be requiring.  Weiters is my biggest question mark. He will need to come out of hiding and take control of his negotiations. I mention a 4-6 years deal as I am thinking buying his 2 years of arbitration and adding 2-4 years more. He is one player I think worth the gamble on physically being able to play. 

Scond. I would think both Santana and Morales are in our vision. If we are going to pay Santana we MUST buy out Tillman's arbitration years and give a 4 year deal nearly equal. He is ours and he appears ready to display his talent consistently. 

Third, I could see us signing Hudson. He fits as a worthy gamble for rehabbing from his injury. If it works we have another number 2 quality rotation starter. It is possible Kazmir is in the picture as well.

Fourth, Signing BRob is a better choice than Phillips. Brob will cost less and provide the year needed "IF" Schoop is to be ready at season end or 2015. McLouth is our left feilder for defensive reason and his speed. His offense is adequate and fits the chemistry of the lineup. 

 

Those that will be too costly in trades or free agency and not worth what the cost will be

Price-Dodgers

Beltran- Yankees

Cano- Yankees

McCann- Dodger unless we trade Weiters for their young talent.

Garza- His injury history is going to hold him up.

Choo- Yankees

Feldman- Indians, Angels,... He threw too many HRs for us to continue. He wants too many years as well.

 

Scherzer- "IF" traded Dodgers


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#8 Jimmy Jazz

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 01:16 PM

Davis is under team control through 2015 (will have to pay him a good amount though).  Given their other pressing needs there's no reason to deal with him now and I suspect they won't.  They should see if he can replicate 2013 before locking him up to anything long term anyway.


Edited by Jimmy Jazz, 02 November 2013 - 01:17 PM.


#9 weird-O

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 02:54 PM

You mention Peter ponying up is the major issue. I contend that  I think the wallet is open yet not used to date by either McPhail or Duquette. A little bit of guessing but I thin they are being cautious based on their understanding of the Poor Experiences that drove Peter to skimping-Bell,..... So I see in an article in the Sun their may be a Wind Change in Duquette on buying free agents that could cost a draft pick.

I wouldn't read to much into DD's comments. he was essentially saying, "its not 100% out of the question". that's along the lines of the O's likelyhood of signing Robby Cano to a long term market value contract, "it's not 100% out of the question". but it isn't going to happen.

 

execs shy away from saying things like "never, no way" because it turns off the fanbase. fans don't want to hear their team say they aren't going to do something. what the O's will do is scour the earth looking for diamonds in the rough. that's what they do, and there's nothing wrong with that. Gonzales and Chen are good acquisitions that DD found by doing that.

 

PGA seems willing to pay the in-house players to keep them here. so that's progress over the days of the Mussina negotiations. but adding big $$$ impact free agents is not going to happen. they'll say it's possible, because that gives the kind of hope that so many of the former MASNites clung to for all those years.

 

DD says draft picks are the key to success. that's true. but it's not the only way to succeed. you usually have to wait 5 years. giving up the ~20th overall draft pick (which is roughly where the O's will land in the next draft), to sign a good FA pitcher, is a reasonable shortcut. the O's don't have a 5 yr window to sign and develop a front of the rotation pitcher to add to this team. in 5 years, many of these guys will be gone. 

 

Santana is worth the draft pick. he's good, not great. he isn't a #1, so he won't cost $30M/yr for 8 yrs. he's roughly the same pitcher as Feldman, but he gives more innings. Santana and Feldman will both get more than $13M/yr. so even if the O's forfeit a draft pick to sign Santana, they get one back by giving a qualifying offer to Feldman. 

 

the best plan of action is to offer Feldman the qualifying offer. if he accepts, problem solved. if not, they get the 1St round draft pick of the team he signs with. then they can pursue Santana knowing they they will pretty much break even on the draft front, while adding a quality pitcher to fortify the rotation.


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#10 bmore_ken

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 04:56 PM

You mention Peter ponying up is the major issue. I contend that  I think the wallet is open yet not used to date by either McPhail or Duquette. 

You're serious?


Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#11 weird-O

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 05:42 PM

You're serious?

hope springs eternal in some folks


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#12 escheinersold

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Posted 03 November 2013 - 08:43 AM

I wouldn't read to much into DD's comments. he was essentially saying, "its not 100% out of the question". that's along the lines of the O's likelyhood of signing Robby Cano to a long term market value contract, "it's not 100% out of the question". but it isn't going to happen.

 

execs shy away from saying things like "never, no way" because it turns off the fanbase. fans don't want to hear their team say they aren't going to do something. what the O's will do is scour the earth looking for diamonds in the rough. that's what they do, and there's nothing wrong with that. Gonzales and Chen are good acquisitions that DD found by doing that.

 

PGA seems willing to pay the in-house players to keep them here. so that's progress over the days of the Mussina negotiations. but adding big $$$ impact free agents is not going to happen. they'll say it's possible, because that gives the kind of hope that so many of the former MASNites clung to for all those years.

 

DD says draft picks are the key to success. that's true. but it's not the only way to succeed. you usually have to wait 5 years. giving up the ~20th overall draft pick (which is roughly where the O's will land in the next draft), to sign a good FA pitcher, is a reasonable shortcut. the O's don't have a 5 yr window to sign and develop a front of the rotation pitcher to add to this team. in 5 years, many of these guys will be gone. 

 

Santana is worth the draft pick. he's good, not great. he isn't a #1, so he won't cost $30M/yr for 8 yrs. he's roughly the same pitcher as Feldman, but he gives more innings. Santana and Feldman will both get more than $13M/yr. so even if the O's forfeit a draft pick to sign Santana, they get one back by giving a qualifying offer to Feldman. 

 

the best plan of action is to offer Feldman the qualifying offer. if he accepts, problem solved. if not, they get the 1St round draft pick of the team he signs with. then they can pursue Santana knowing they they will pretty much break even on the draft front, while adding a quality pitcher to fortify the rotation.

Your suggestion to give the Qualifying offer to Feldman. You think another team is going to sign him and give up a draft choice for him. Your head is in a cloud. He is not going to get a $13 mil offer from anyone. At best he will be at 8.5 mil for 2-3 years. The O's need to pass on him and save his money for some one better. Yes I think Santana is better and more effective.


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#13 weird-O

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Posted 03 November 2013 - 10:11 PM

Your suggestion to give the Qualifying offer to Feldman. You think another team is going to sign him and give up a draft choice for him. Your head is in a cloud. He is not going to get a $13 mil offer from anyone. At best he will be at 8.5 mil for 2-3 years. The O's need to pass on him and save his money for some one better. Yes I think Santana is better and more effective.

will someone give $13M to Feldman?... absolutely

 

after the 2012 season, Edwin Jackson got a 4 yr deal from the cubs that paid him $13M last year to be a back of the rotation pitcher for a team that knew they wouldn't contend. that contract bumps his pay up to $16m before it ends. Feldman's whip and era were better than Jackson heading into the 2013 season. he also had a better 2013 season than Jackson. and Feldman pitched in the dreaded AL east. 

 

watch how this plays out this winter. no one ever expects the price for pitchers to reach the level it does each winter. just look at Grienke.  


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#14 Oriole-Bob

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 07:37 AM

I don't think Wieters is worth money he is going to get.  The guy is good defensively but average at best at the plate.  The drop off from Wieters to some cheap defensive catcher would not be that great.   I'd rather that money go towards starting pitching or a slugger(who isn't getting the senior discount at Bob Evans). 

 

Sin Soo Choo would be an awesome signing.  We need a guy like that or Granderson.    I'm not counting on it though.

 

We also need an Ace but i'm not counting on that either.  What quality pitcher would sign here?  We only offer short term contracts to pitchers.  Who in their right mind would sign with the O's on a 2 year deal when they can get guarenteed money elsewhere for 5-6 years.    Instead we'll get guys like Norris and Feldman. 

 

Our only hope is a home grown ace....our track record with that is horrible. 



#15 bmore_ken

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 08:40 AM

Your suggestion to give the Qualifying offer to Feldman. You think another team is going to sign him and give up a draft choice for him. Your head is in a cloud. He is not going to get a $13 mil offer from anyone. At best he will be at 8.5 mil for 2-3 years

Have you at all paid attenton to the salaries in baseball. Feldman is no King Felix but he's a reliable starting pitcher, he'll be in the $13 mil area easy. Then again you think Peta boy has an open wallet that the GMs aren't using so tells me all I need to know about what you know(or don't) about the O's


Edited by bmore_ken, 04 November 2013 - 08:43 AM.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#16 Far from home

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:41 AM

In an even world, I'm going out and getting Joe Saunders and make a serious run at Tanaka. If Josh Johnson can be had at the right price, I would go after him as well. There really aren't many of the kinds of guys that the O's actually need on the market right now.
Ideological gravy trains lead to poor decisions.
Learn from the last President, and make this next era one of rebuilding what has been torn down.
Instead of being loyal to your party, be loyal to your country and your people.

#17 bmore_ken

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:46 AM

In an even world, I'm going out and getting Joe Saunders and make a serious run at Tanaka. If Josh Johnson can be had at the right price, I would go after him as well. There really aren't many of the kinds of guys that the O's actually need on the market right now.

Josh Johnson who just went 2-8 with an ERA over 6? Sounds like an O's move


Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#18 Oriole-Bob

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:51 AM

Josh Johnson who just went 2-8 with an ERA over 6? Sounds like an O's move

 

Hopefully Duquette will load up on pitching depth like he did before this offseason.  We had what 15 starting pitchers all of which would be #4,5's on good teams.   Someone needs to tell Dan quality over quantity. 



#19 bmore_ken

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:52 AM

Hopefully Duquette will load up on pitching depth like he did before this offseason.  We had what 15 starting pitchers all of which would be #4,5's on good teams.   Someone needs to tell Dan quality over quantity. 

Hopefully he's on the phone with Roy Halladay's doctor finding out what's up


Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#20 Far from home

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 10:48 AM

 

Josh Johnson who just went 2-8 with an ERA over 6? Sounds like an O's move

 

You don't add player just based on what they did last year.
He has a long body of work and success. He's also still in the prime of his career.
Would you have picked up Halladay after his 2004 season?
Ervin Santana was 9/13 with 5.16 ERA in 2012. This year, he's probably the top FA.

BTW, in a dream world, I would also pick up Lester.

Then I would have all the young guys pitch out of the bullpen.
Ideological gravy trains lead to poor decisions.
Learn from the last President, and make this next era one of rebuilding what has been torn down.
Instead of being loyal to your party, be loyal to your country and your people.




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