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O's Off Season - Rinse and Repeat


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#1 OsfaninCA

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 01:58 AM

Baltimore Sun will leak articles all winter long about trades, acquisitions and foreign signings...Orioles will add

cast off players in hopes of hitting the jack pot, sign 3-4 lefties for the bullpen in hopes one pans out, pick up a Rule 5

guy and do everything in their power to keep him on the roster even though value is questionable (but we got him cheap,

free), talk all season long about signing a slugger and ink a Danny Valencia type who hits bombs in minors and will sign

NO number 1 starter because Angelos does not like to do deals over 3 years for pitchers even though every single contender

does and management will claim we have many potential number 1s in the minors.....what is hilarious is that this is the SAME

formula for the last 10 years and we got lucky for the last two because there were some decent young players that we drafted

that actually made an impact (0-7 years prior)...there is some real money coming off books with Roberts and Markakis (next year,

thank God). The team is actually really well positioned with a solid defense, some young potential stars...now is the time to do something

but it will be RINSE and REPEAT....bank on it.



#2 weenie

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 09:50 AM

I get the frustration but I see so many bad recent blockbuster signings and would prefer the O's add a few short term veteran deals instead of the next Fielder, Pujols, ARod, Tex, Wells, Hamilton, Zito, Howard.........

 

Imagine the predicament if the O's had spent on Teixeira.  In turn, that would have ended the Davis, Hunter deal and instead led to Pearce as the primary firstbaseman while Tex collected his paycheck while eating bon bons with BRob down in Sarasota.   Or, if the O's signed Hamilton, do you think the front office would have any latitude now to add legit veterans?

 

Few of the most highly paid guys today are worthy.  It's about a 20% success rate IMO. If I were the front office, I'd be careful now and plan to sign Crush and Tillman to long term deals sometime late next year if both perform well in 2014.  It might result in two whopper deals but both Davis and Tillman have better upside then just about any current free agent (including Cano). Siging your own is always better than adding someone else's discards.  Angelos learned that lesson when Mussina left.

 

The savings from Roberts, Wieters and Markakis contracts will be just about enough to retain the existing cleanup hitter and #1 starter. 

 

I'd actually hope the O's trade Wieters in July or next offseason for a few good long term prospects.  The minors are improving but they still need more talent.

 

However, we all know how this offseason will go.  Guys like Nolasco and McCann will take up other teams cash and late in the offseason a few guys (like Lohse last year) will still be looking for a deal.  That's when Duquette will strike with a few one and two year deals for those left standing. Adding the next Wilson Betemit will have little impact but the team is still a contender with a Davis, Jones, Machado lineup core and Tillman, Hunter, O'Day etc. eating innings until Gausman, Harvey, Bundy, Wright and/or Rodriguez arrives in 2015. 

 

We all want '14 to be the next playoff year, and I for one think the current nucleus can get there but next offseason imagine if the rotation has three guys knocking on the door from Norfolk/Bowie.  I could actually imagine the O's turning down Chen's very affordable option to clear room for Rodriguez and Bundy to step in and augment Tillman, Gausman and Gonzalez (a very underrated back end guy)



#3 weird-O

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 07:50 AM

[The O's] will sign NO number 1 starter because Angelos does not like to do deals over 3 years for pitchers even though every single contender

does.

this is the biggest set of handcuffs that DD has to work around. 

 

and it's not limited to #1 starters, it's all starters. Santana would be a very good addition to the rotation, but it won't happen because he will easily gets 4 or more years on the open market.   


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#4 weird-O

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 07:56 AM

I get the frustration but I see so many bad recent blockbuster signings and would prefer the O's add a few short term veteran deals instead of the next Fielder, Pujols, ARod, Tex, Wells, Hamilton, Zito, Howard.........

 

 

I've heard several analysts mention that they see a philosophical shift in how clubs view the 10 yr contract. it's been mentioned that clubs no longer want to offer that kind of term length, because it always ends up being an albatross.

 

yet I still see 10 yr contracts being handed over every winter. maybe Cano will be the start of a new day in baseball finances. if so, I think it will help the less wealthy clubs to be players when it comes to signing big ticket guys. imagine KC signing Cano, because they are able to get him for 5 years rather than 10.  


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#5 Oriole-Bob

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 02:11 PM

I've heard several analysts mention that they see a philosophical shift in how clubs view the 10 yr contract. it's been mentioned that clubs no longer want to offer that kind of term length, because it always ends up being an albatross.

 

yet I still see 10 yr contracts being handed over every winter. maybe Cano will be the start of a new day in baseball finances. if so, I think it will help the less wealthy clubs to be players when it comes to signing big ticket guys. imagine KC signing Cano, because they are able to get him for 5 years rather than 10.  

 

 

This is why we need to trade Wieters.  He is going to command way more money than he is worth.  We got him thru 2015.  He'll be what late 20's to 30 by then.  Signing an aging catcher to a 6-8 year deal is stupid.  espeically since the last 4-5 years of that deal he's gonna be your DH.  This team really needs another .230 15 HR DH?  lol



#6 weird-O

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 02:35 PM

This is why we need to trade Wieters.  He is going to command way more money than he is worth.  We got him thru 2015.  He'll be what late 20's to 30 by then.  Signing an aging catcher to a 6-8 year deal is stupid.  espeically since the last 4-5 years of that deal he's gonna be your DH.  This team really needs another .230 15 HR DH?  lol

I totally understand your logic. and I agree with most of what you said. he'll be 30 when he hits FA status. a 5 yr deal is perfect. but he'll get more than that as a FA. I think the future of his offensive production can stay pretty steady with where he is now. after he moves into a permanent DH role, he won't be as worn out from catching.

 

OTOH, he has a long swing. and when that swing starts to slow down, he'll instantly fall off a cliff. but I don't think that will happen until he's 37 or 38. any contract taking him beyond age 36 has a high % of risk built in.  


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#7 Struds

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 07:53 AM

I've heard several analysts mention that they see a philosophical shift in how clubs view the 10 yr contract. it's been mentioned that clubs no longer want to offer that kind of term length, because it always ends up being an albatross.

 

yet I still see 10 yr contracts being handed over every winter. maybe Cano will be the start of a new day in baseball finances. if so, I think it will help the less wealthy clubs to be players when it comes to signing big ticket guys. imagine KC signing Cano, because they are able to get him for 5 years rather than 10.  

With the recent success of younger players like Manny, Harper, Puig and Trout, and the abject failure of some of the huge contracts, it's hard to imagine GMs and owners NOT shying away from the huge, long-term contracts.  There may still be a few, but it has to decrease, doesn't it?



#8 larsanderson

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 08:14 AM

I get the frustration but I see so many bad recent blockbuster signings and would prefer the O's add a few short term veteran deals instead of the next Fielder, Pujols, ARod, Tex, Wells, Hamilton, Zito, Howard.........
 
Imagine the predicament if the O's had spent on Teixeira.  In turn, that would have ended the Davis, Hunter deal and instead led to Pearce as the primary firstbaseman while Tex collected his paycheck while eating bon bons with BRob down in Sarasota.   Or, if the O's signed Hamilton, do you think the front office would have any latitude now to add legit veterans?
 
Few of the most highly paid guys today are worthy.  It's about a 20% success rate IMO. If I were the front office, I'd be careful now and plan to sign Crush and Tillman to long term deals sometime late next year if both perform well in 2014.  It might result in two whopper deals but both Davis and Tillman have better upside then just about any current free agent (including Cano). Siging your own is always better than adding someone else's discards.  Angelos learned that lesson when Mussina left.
 
The savings from Roberts, Wieters and Markakis contracts will be just about enough to retain the existing cleanup hitter and #1 starter. 
 
I'd actually hope the O's trade Wieters in July or next offseason for a few good long term prospects.  The minors are improving but they still need more talent.
 
However, we all know how this offseason will go.  Guys like Nolasco and McCann will take up other teams cash and late in the offseason a few guys (like Lohse last year) will still be looking for a deal.  That's when Duquette will strike with a few one and two year deals for those left standing. Adding the next Wilson Betemit will have little impact but the team is still a contender with a Davis, Jones, Machado lineup core and Tillman, Hunter, O'Day etc. eating innings until Gausman, Harvey, Bundy, Wright and/or Rodriguez arrives in 2015. 
 
We all want '14 to be the next playoff year, and I for one think the current nucleus can get there but next offseason imagine if the rotation has three guys knocking on the door from Norfolk/Bowie.  I could actually imagine the O's turning down Chen's very affordable option to clear room for Rodriguez and Bundy to step in and augment Tillman, Gausman and Gonzalez (a very underrated back end guy)



Angelos' philosophy on free agents, long term contracts and building through the draft has paid off over the last 15 years?

In Baltimore it's never about next year, it's always 2-3 years down the road

#9 weird-O

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 09:33 AM

With the recent success of younger players like Manny, Harper, Puig and Trout, and the abject failure of some of the huge contracts, it's hard to imagine GMs and owners NOT shying away from the huge, long-term contracts.  There may still be a few, but it has to decrease, doesn't it?

there aren't very many clubs offering those types of contracts. usually it was the NY teams or Ana, Chicago, Det and TX. the overall thinking is, this contract may be a weight around our necks in 8 yrs, but we'll win for 7 yrs and by the time the player breaks down, that salary won't look as bad (since salaries are always exploding). and we'll just replace the player when that day comes.

 

it's the cost of doing business for the owners who actually want to win a trophy.

 

but the Cano negotiations are a little surprising to me. I can't recall the yankees ever doing anything less than handing over a blank check and contract to one of their pending FAs. especially when that FA is their best player by far. historically, they pretty much said "fill in the $ amount and number of years you want to be here. leave the paperwork on the desk before you leave, see you in Tampa this spring".


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#10 Rob

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Posted 04 December 2013 - 05:36 PM

Somebody probably told Angelos a few years ago..... "Pete.... if you at least have a winning season or two, more people will fill the stands and you will actually make more money AND the fans won't hate you as much".

 

He obviously still doesn't give a damn about winning. The guys we've signed so far.... PATHETIC. I doubt any of those players even play an inning for the Orioles this year. It's like they are just filling out their minor league teams with no real hopes of a major league future for any of them.



#11 weird-O

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Posted 04 December 2013 - 05:57 PM

Somebody probably told Angelos a few years ago..... "Pete.... if you at least have a winning season or two, more people will fill the stands and you will actually make more money AND the fans won't hate you as much".

 

He obviously still doesn't give a damn about winning. The guys we've signed so far.... PATHETIC. I doubt any of those players even play an inning for the Orioles this year. It's like they are just filling out their minor league teams with no real hopes of a major league future for any of them.

after amassing 10 years of MASN profits, while pinching payroll pennies, there's no way to justify singing the same old song of, "this isn't the right time". I can understand not wanting to go into a long contract. but Beltran is available and he's only asking 3 yrs. even if the very unlikely happens, and he suddenly dissolves. it's only a 3 yr contract.


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#12 Rob

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Posted 04 December 2013 - 06:36 PM

after amassing 10 years of MASN profits, while pinching payroll pennies, there's no way to justify singing the same old song of, "this isn't the right time". I can understand not wanting to go into a long contract. but Beltran is available and he's only asking 3 yrs. even if the very unlikely happens, and he suddenly dissolves. it's only a 3 yr contract.

 

I agree completely. I'd much rather overpay for a guy you know will help your team, than keep signing utility guys and career minor leaguers that may never make your team.



#13 weird-O

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Posted 04 December 2013 - 06:50 PM

I agree completely. I'd much rather overpay for a guy you know will help your team, than keep signing utility guys and career minor leaguers that may never make your team.

or do both. there's nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a few guys who may be late bloomers, and then stocking the minors with them. but you can't make that your exclusive practice, for trying to build a winner, while being budget conscious. 


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#14 larsanderson

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Posted 04 December 2013 - 08:19 PM

Doug Fister didn't fit in the Os plans?




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