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Why are Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez still unsigned?


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#1 soulflower

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 09:23 AM

Do teams know something about these guys that we don't know?

 

 

 

It happened like this, more or less. Jimenez's second half was Koufaxian, with 100 strikeouts to 27 walks in 84 innings. He allowed 13 homers before the break and three after. His overall season line looked superlative, which is gobsmacking when you see the route Jimenez took to get there.

 

Santana's line isn't as impressive on the surface, at least when it comes to strikeouts. But considering the difference between ballparks, Santana was probably better at preventing runs when adjusting for context (127 ERA+ to Jimenez's 114). There's certainly a neater distribution of good starts and bad starts, partially explained by the preponderance of hackers and wavers Jimenez got to face in the second half.

 

http://www.baseballn...-ubaldo-jimenez


Edited by soulflower, 08 February 2014 - 09:23 AM.

"...reality has a well-known liberal bias"

#2 Jimmy Jazz

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 02:48 PM

They both turned down qualifying offers so you sign them, you lose your first round pick. I think this will be changed when the current CBA expires in 2016.

#3 soulflower

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 03:43 PM

They both turned down qualifying offers so you sign them, you lose your first round pick. I think this will be changed when the current CBA expires in 2016.


That makes sense. Sucks for them but there aren't too many teams willing to sacrifice a 1st round draft pick. Those guys should've taken the QO.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias"

#4 weird-O

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 04:18 PM

the draft pick may be a factor, but I don't think that's the real issue. Cano didn't have a problem getting a deal. Like Lohse, the real issue is that they are looking for big money and long term deals that exceed their value. Santana has some good numbers, but his WHIP is not good. Jimenez doesn't have a track record of sustained success. he just happened to have a good season for his walk year. seriously, Jimenez?  his stats say steer clear.


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#5 larsanderson

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 04:30 PM

Neither player could crack the O's 25 man roster

#6 soulflower

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 05:57 PM

the draft pick may be a factor, but I don't think that's the real issue. Cano didn't have a problem getting a deal. Like Lohse, the real issue is that they are looking for big money and long term deals that exceed their value. Santana has some good numbers, but his WHIP is not good. Jimenez doesn't have a track record of sustained success. he just happened to have a good season for his walk year. seriously, Jimenez? his stats say steer clear.


Jimenez was nearly unhittable in the second half of last season. He lost velocity on his fastball compared to earlier in his career but seems to have figured out how to be a 'finesse pitcher' rather than just hard throwing pitcher. I think he's got more upside than any other free agent pitchers...
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias"

#7 weird-O

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 06:20 PM

Jimenez was nearly unhittable in the second half of last season. He lost velocity on his fastball compared to earlier in his career but seems to have figured out how to be a 'finesse pitcher' rather than just hard throwing pitcher. I think he's got more upside than any other free agent pitchers...

you're right, but at the end of it all, a team is being asked to commit to 5+ years at over $14M/yr for a pitcher who has only been worth that money for less than 3 months out of 8 seasons. he's barely been a #4 pitcher his whole career. the risk far outweighs the possible reward. and all 30 teams are telling him that.

 

if I was a GM, I'd pass.

 

Santana is a #3 pitcher that wants $20M+/yr for 5 yrs. no thanks.


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#8 weenie

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 06:37 PM

Fansided had an interesting article today about this.  They claimed Garza was highest rated of the three and his signing basically screwed up the other two.  With a benchmark of 4 yrs/$50M and no draft choice compensation, the other two had to adjust below that.  Allegedly, Santana has adjusted down to $10-12M per for 3 to 4 yrs.  Would you rather have Santana or Feldman for 3 yrs, $30M?  The only competition now are either Colorado (an even worse place to pitch than the Yard) or Toronto (tax consequences???).  Jimenez and Santana should be interviewing new agents after both were advised to turn down $14.1M qualifiers. 

 

And, both Cruz and Morales are in the same boat.  Seattle is a pitchers park and both guys would struggle to win there if they chose to sign with the Pilots :).

 

Spring starts next week and those guys are getting desperate....almost as desperate as O's fans are for a legitimate addition.


Edited by weenie, 08 February 2014 - 06:41 PM.


#9 Agrippa

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 06:44 PM

Fansided had an interesting article today about this.  They claimed Garza was highest rated of the three and his signing basically screwed up the other two.  With a benchmark of 4 yrs/$50M and no draft choice compensation, the other two had to adjust below that.  Allegedly, Santana has adjusted down to $10-12M per for 3 to 4 yrs.  Would you rather have Santana or Feldman for 3 yrs, $30M?  The only competition now are either Colorado (an even worse place to pitch than the Yard) or Toronto (tax consequences???).  Jimenez and Santana should be interviewing new agents after both were advised to turn down $14.1M qualifiers. 
 
And, both Cruz and Morales are in the same boat.  Seattle is a pitchers park and both guys would struggle to win there if they chose to sign with the Pilots :).
 
Spring starts next week and those guys are getting desperate....almost as desperate as O's fans are for a legitimate addition.


The O's didn't want Feldman

#10 weird-O

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 06:56 PM

Fansided had an interesting article today about this.  They claimed Garza was highest rated of the three and his signing basically screwed up the other two.  With a benchmark of 4 yrs/$50M and no draft choice compensation, the other two had to adjust below that.  Allegedly, Santana has adjusted down to $10-12M per for 3 to 4 yrs.  Would you rather have Santana or Feldman for 3 yrs, $30M?  The only competition now are either Colorado (an even worse place to pitch than the Yard) or Toronto (tax consequences???).  Jimenez and Santana should be interviewing new agents after both were advised to turn down $14.1M qualifiers. 

 

And, both Cruz and Morales are in the same boat.  Seattle is a pitchers park and both guys would struggle to win there if they chose to sign with the Pilots :).

 

Spring starts next week and those guys are getting desperate....almost as desperate as O's fans are for a legitimate addition.

The Pilots :D

 

I didn't realize the qualifying offer had jumped up to $14.1. whew, that's a $900k jump in 1 year. wasn't it $13.3 last year?

 

thanks for the update on Santana's new asking price. I'd happily give him 3 years at $12M per. and I'd throw in a club option 4th yr with a $4M buy out 


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#11 soulflower

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 07:08 PM

Fansided had an interesting article today about this. They claimed Garza was highest rated of the three and his signing basically screwed up the other two. With a benchmark of 4 yrs/$50M and no draft choice compensation, the other two had to adjust below that. Allegedly, Santana has adjusted down to $10-12M per for 3 to 4 yrs. Would you rather have Santana or Feldman for 3 yrs, $30M? The only competition now are either Colorado (an even worse place to pitch than the Yard) or Toronto (tax consequences???). Jimenez and Santana should be interviewing new agents after both were advised to turn down $14.1M qualifiers.

And, both Cruz and Morales are in the same boat. Seattle is a pitchers park and both guys would struggle to win there if they chose to sign with the Pilots :).

Spring starts next week and those guys are getting desperate....almost as desperate as O's fans are for a legitimate addition.


I agree that their demands were too much initially but I think I saw somewhere that Jimenez is open to a 3 year contract.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys takes a 1 year deal. If a guy like Jimenez repeats what he did in the second half last season, he'll get much more money as a free agent next year
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias"

#12 bmore_ken

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 07:40 PM

The O's didn't want Feldman

Yet another in a long line of bad decisions


Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#13 bmore_ken

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 07:41 PM

I agree that their demands were too much initially but I think I saw somewhere that Jimenez is open to a 3 year contract.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys takes a 1 year deal. If a guy like Jimenez repeats what he did in the second half last season, he'll get much more money as a free agent next year

I'm surprised the Yankees or Sox  haven't grabbed one of them


Edited by bmore_ken, 08 February 2014 - 07:41 PM.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#14 soulflower

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 08:59 PM

I'm surprised the Yankees or Sox haven't grabbed one of them


The Sox are still pretty loaded with pitchers

The Yanks might've gone after Jimenez of they didn't sign Tanaka. I feel comfortable with letting one of the young guys like Pineda, Warren, or Phelps fight for the 5th starter job
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias"

#15 Jimmy Jazz

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 11:36 PM

the draft pick may be a factor, but I don't think that's the real issue. Cano didn't have a problem getting a deal. Like Lohse, the real issue is that they are looking for big money and long term deals that exceed their value. Santana has some good numbers, but his WHIP is not good. Jimenez doesn't have a track record of sustained success. he just happened to have a good season for his walk year. seriously, Jimenez?  his stats say steer clear.


This is definitely part of it too. But minus the draft pick issue I think these guys would be signed. Spring Training is right around the corner. This didn't used to happen.

#16 weenie

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 09:17 AM

The Pilots :D

 

I didn't realize the qualifying offer had jumped up to $14.1. whew, that's a $900k jump in 1 year. wasn't it $13.3 last year?

 

thanks for the update on Santana's new asking price. I'd happily give him 3 years at $12M per. and I'd throw in a club option 4th yr with a $4M buy out 

The $40M guaranteed you propose would seem enough for Santana...if he passes the physical. 

 

On the other hand, as pointed out by others Ubaldo might accept a fat one year deal.  At age 30, this season could be big for Jimenez if he finds the right place to pitch and can repeat his 2010 performance while pitching for Colorado...COLORADO!!  Pitchers go to die there but he was the exception.

 

But this all leads to my biggest worry about Duquette, he's got an owner and the spawn thereof who renegotiate with every change in the wind.  If the Angelos gang are re-evaluating options once more, they'll be left in the wake of others.   At some point they need to choose a guy and go for it.  Monday is as good as any to stop cutting bait and get somebody in the boat!


Edited by weenie, 09 February 2014 - 09:18 AM.


#17 Thirteen

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 10:15 AM

the draft pick may be a factor, but I don't think that's the real issue. Cano didn't have a problem getting a deal.


Giving up your first round pick for Robinson Cano is way different than giving up your first round pick for Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

#18 bmore_ken

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 12:24 PM

Giving up your first round pick for Robinson Cano is way different than giving up your first round pick for Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

Considering the  O's track record with 1st round picks, I don't see what the problem is. Going back to 2004, they've only drafted 2 impact players and 2 that the jury is still out on in the 1st round


Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#19 weird-O

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 12:58 PM

Giving up your first round pick for Robinson Cano is way different than giving up your first round pick for Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

I disagree. Once again I'll point to Lohse. he had no problem getting a contract, once he adjusted his asking price to the point where it was commensurate with his talent. these #4 & 5 guys are asking for money that last years aces were getting. I understand that the market sees annual inflation, but for Santana to think he's worth $20M+/yr shows that he and his agent have no perspective on his value.


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#20 soulflower

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 06:37 PM

I disagree. Once again I'll point to Lohse. he had no problem getting a contract, once he adjusted his asking price to the point where it was commensurate with his talent. these #4 & 5 guys are asking for money that last years aces were getting. I understand that the market sees annual inflation, but for Santana to think he's worth $20M+/yr shows that he and his agent have no perspective on his value.


I agree with most of your post but I disagree with you valuing them as #4 or #5 starters.

Both guys are #2 or # 3 starters on most teams including the Orioles. Jimenez is only 30 and still shows the potential to return to being a #1 starter.

$20 mil a year is definitely way too much for either pitcher. I think the $15-17 mil a year range is more realistic and in line with what other pitchers of their caliber are getting paid these days...
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias"




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