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soulflower

Why are Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez still unsigned?

50 posts in this topic

Do teams know something about these guys that we don't know?

 

 

 

It happened like this, more or less. Jimenez's second half was Koufaxian, with 100 strikeouts to 27 walks in 84 innings. He allowed 13 homers before the break and three after. His overall season line looked superlative, which is gobsmacking when you see the route Jimenez took to get there.

 

Santana's line isn't as impressive on the surface, at least when it comes to strikeouts. But considering the difference between ballparks, Santana was probably better at preventing runs when adjusting for context (127 ERA+ to Jimenez's 114). There's certainly a neater distribution of good starts and bad starts, partially explained by the preponderance of hackers and wavers Jimenez got to face in the second half.

 

http://www.baseballnation.com/2014/2/3/5373510/ervin-santana-ubaldo-jimenez

Edited by soulflower

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They both turned down qualifying offers so you sign them, you lose your first round pick. I think this will be changed when the current CBA expires in 2016.

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They both turned down qualifying offers so you sign them, you lose your first round pick. I think this will be changed when the current CBA expires in 2016.

That makes sense. Sucks for them but there aren't too many teams willing to sacrifice a 1st round draft pick. Those guys should've taken the QO.

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the draft pick may be a factor, but I don't think that's the real issue. Cano didn't have a problem getting a deal. Like Lohse, the real issue is that they are looking for big money and long term deals that exceed their value. Santana has some good numbers, but his WHIP is not good. Jimenez doesn't have a track record of sustained success. he just happened to have a good season for his walk year. seriously, Jimenez?  his stats say steer clear.

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the draft pick may be a factor, but I don't think that's the real issue. Cano didn't have a problem getting a deal. Like Lohse, the real issue is that they are looking for big money and long term deals that exceed their value. Santana has some good numbers, but his WHIP is not good. Jimenez doesn't have a track record of sustained success. he just happened to have a good season for his walk year. seriously, Jimenez? his stats say steer clear.

Jimenez was nearly unhittable in the second half of last season. He lost velocity on his fastball compared to earlier in his career but seems to have figured out how to be a 'finesse pitcher' rather than just hard throwing pitcher. I think he's got more upside than any other free agent pitchers...

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Jimenez was nearly unhittable in the second half of last season. He lost velocity on his fastball compared to earlier in his career but seems to have figured out how to be a 'finesse pitcher' rather than just hard throwing pitcher. I think he's got more upside than any other free agent pitchers...

you're right, but at the end of it all, a team is being asked to commit to 5+ years at over $14M/yr for a pitcher who has only been worth that money for less than 3 months out of 8 seasons. he's barely been a #4 pitcher his whole career. the risk far outweighs the possible reward. and all 30 teams are telling him that.

 

if I was a GM, I'd pass.

 

Santana is a #3 pitcher that wants $20M+/yr for 5 yrs. no thanks.

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Fansided had an interesting article today about this.  They claimed Garza was highest rated of the three and his signing basically screwed up the other two.  With a benchmark of 4 yrs/$50M and no draft choice compensation, the other two had to adjust below that.  Allegedly, Santana has adjusted down to $10-12M per for 3 to 4 yrs.  Would you rather have Santana or Feldman for 3 yrs, $30M?  The only competition now are either Colorado (an even worse place to pitch than the Yard) or Toronto (tax consequences???).  Jimenez and Santana should be interviewing new agents after both were advised to turn down $14.1M qualifiers. 

 

And, both Cruz and Morales are in the same boat.  Seattle is a pitchers park and both guys would struggle to win there if they chose to sign with the Pilots :).

 

Spring starts next week and those guys are getting desperate....almost as desperate as O's fans are for a legitimate addition.

Edited by weenie

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Fansided had an interesting article today about this.  They claimed Garza was highest rated of the three and his signing basically screwed up the other two.  With a benchmark of 4 yrs/$50M and no draft choice compensation, the other two had to adjust below that.  Allegedly, Santana has adjusted down to $10-12M per for 3 to 4 yrs.  Would you rather have Santana or Feldman for 3 yrs, $30M?  The only competition now are either Colorado (an even worse place to pitch than the Yard) or Toronto (tax consequences???).  Jimenez and Santana should be interviewing new agents after both were advised to turn down $14.1M qualifiers. 

 

And, both Cruz and Morales are in the same boat.  Seattle is a pitchers park and both guys would struggle to win there if they chose to sign with the Pilots :).

 

Spring starts next week and those guys are getting desperate....almost as desperate as O's fans are for a legitimate addition.

The O's didn't want Feldman

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Fansided had an interesting article today about this.  They claimed Garza was highest rated of the three and his signing basically screwed up the other two.  With a benchmark of 4 yrs/$50M and no draft choice compensation, the other two had to adjust below that.  Allegedly, Santana has adjusted down to $10-12M per for 3 to 4 yrs.  Would you rather have Santana or Feldman for 3 yrs, $30M?  The only competition now are either Colorado (an even worse place to pitch than the Yard) or Toronto (tax consequences???).  Jimenez and Santana should be interviewing new agents after both were advised to turn down $14.1M qualifiers. 

 

And, both Cruz and Morales are in the same boat.  Seattle is a pitchers park and both guys would struggle to win there if they chose to sign with the Pilots :).

 

Spring starts next week and those guys are getting desperate....almost as desperate as O's fans are for a legitimate addition.

The Pilots :D

 

I didn't realize the qualifying offer had jumped up to $14.1. whew, that's a $900k jump in 1 year. wasn't it $13.3 last year?

 

thanks for the update on Santana's new asking price. I'd happily give him 3 years at $12M per. and I'd throw in a club option 4th yr with a $4M buy out 

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Fansided had an interesting article today about this. They claimed Garza was highest rated of the three and his signing basically screwed up the other two. With a benchmark of 4 yrs/$50M and no draft choice compensation, the other two had to adjust below that. Allegedly, Santana has adjusted down to $10-12M per for 3 to 4 yrs. Would you rather have Santana or Feldman for 3 yrs, $30M? The only competition now are either Colorado (an even worse place to pitch than the Yard) or Toronto (tax consequences???). Jimenez and Santana should be interviewing new agents after both were advised to turn down $14.1M qualifiers.

 

And, both Cruz and Morales are in the same boat. Seattle is a pitchers park and both guys would struggle to win there if they chose to sign with the Pilots :).

 

Spring starts next week and those guys are getting desperate....almost as desperate as O's fans are for a legitimate addition.

I agree that their demands were too much initially but I think I saw somewhere that Jimenez is open to a 3 year contract.

 

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys takes a 1 year deal. If a guy like Jimenez repeats what he did in the second half last season, he'll get much more money as a free agent next year

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I agree that their demands were too much initially but I think I saw somewhere that Jimenez is open to a 3 year contract.

 

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys takes a 1 year deal. If a guy like Jimenez repeats what he did in the second half last season, he'll get much more money as a free agent next year

I'm surprised the Yankees or Sox  haven't grabbed one of them

Edited by bmore_ken

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I'm surprised the Yankees or Sox haven't grabbed one of them

The Sox are still pretty loaded with pitchers

 

The Yanks might've gone after Jimenez of they didn't sign Tanaka. I feel comfortable with letting one of the young guys like Pineda, Warren, or Phelps fight for the 5th starter job

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the draft pick may be a factor, but I don't think that's the real issue. Cano didn't have a problem getting a deal. Like Lohse, the real issue is that they are looking for big money and long term deals that exceed their value. Santana has some good numbers, but his WHIP is not good. Jimenez doesn't have a track record of sustained success. he just happened to have a good season for his walk year. seriously, Jimenez?  his stats say steer clear.

This is definitely part of it too. But minus the draft pick issue I think these guys would be signed. Spring Training is right around the corner. This didn't used to happen.

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The Pilots :D

 

I didn't realize the qualifying offer had jumped up to $14.1. whew, that's a $900k jump in 1 year. wasn't it $13.3 last year?

 

thanks for the update on Santana's new asking price. I'd happily give him 3 years at $12M per. and I'd throw in a club option 4th yr with a $4M buy out 

The $40M guaranteed you propose would seem enough for Santana...if he passes the physical. 

 

On the other hand, as pointed out by others Ubaldo might accept a fat one year deal.  At age 30, this season could be big for Jimenez if he finds the right place to pitch and can repeat his 2010 performance while pitching for Colorado...COLORADO!!  Pitchers go to die there but he was the exception.

 

But this all leads to my biggest worry about Duquette, he's got an owner and the spawn thereof who renegotiate with every change in the wind.  If the Angelos gang are re-evaluating options once more, they'll be left in the wake of others.   At some point they need to choose a guy and go for it.  Monday is as good as any to stop cutting bait and get somebody in the boat!

Edited by weenie

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the draft pick may be a factor, but I don't think that's the real issue. Cano didn't have a problem getting a deal.

Giving up your first round pick for Robinson Cano is way different than giving up your first round pick for Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

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Giving up your first round pick for Robinson Cano is way different than giving up your first round pick for Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

Considering the  O's track record with 1st round picks, I don't see what the problem is. Going back to 2004, they've only drafted 2 impact players and 2 that the jury is still out on in the 1st round

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Giving up your first round pick for Robinson Cano is way different than giving up your first round pick for Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

I disagree. Once again I'll point to Lohse. he had no problem getting a contract, once he adjusted his asking price to the point where it was commensurate with his talent. these #4 & 5 guys are asking for money that last years aces were getting. I understand that the market sees annual inflation, but for Santana to think he's worth $20M+/yr shows that he and his agent have no perspective on his value.

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I disagree. Once again I'll point to Lohse. he had no problem getting a contract, once he adjusted his asking price to the point where it was commensurate with his talent. these #4 & 5 guys are asking for money that last years aces were getting. I understand that the market sees annual inflation, but for Santana to think he's worth $20M+/yr shows that he and his agent have no perspective on his value.

I agree with most of your post but I disagree with you valuing them as #4 or #5 starters.

 

Both guys are #2 or # 3 starters on most teams including the Orioles. Jimenez is only 30 and still shows the potential to return to being a #1 starter.

 

$20 mil a year is definitely way too much for either pitcher. I think the $15-17 mil a year range is more realistic and in line with what other pitchers of their caliber are getting paid these days...

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I agree with most of your post but I disagree with you valuing them as #4 or #5 starters.

 

Both guys are #2 or # 3 starters on most teams including the Orioles. Jimenez is only 30 and still shows the potential to return to being a #1 starter.

 

$20 mil a year is definitely way too much for either pitcher. I think the $15-17 mil a year range is more realistic and in line with what other pitchers of their caliber are getting paid these days...

Jimenez, a #1 starter? when was that? have you looked at his stats?

 

Santana had a very good year in '13, but his career numbers are not #2-3 status. a 1.28 WHIP and a 4.19 ERA are not good numbers. those are #4-5 numbers. and at 31, he's already well into his peak production years.

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Jimenez, a #1 starter? when was that? have you looked at his stats?

 

Santana had a very good year in '13, but his career numbers are not #2-3 status. a 1.28 WHIP and a 4.19 ERA are not good numbers. those are #4-5 numbers. and at 31, he's already well into his peak production years.

To be fair, for the period from April thru July 2010, there was no better pitcher in baseball than Ubaldo.  He finished that year 3rd in the CY behind Halladay and Wainwright but Colorado contended that year largely cuz of him. He was a legit #1 back then but they overused him to try and reach the playoffs and IMO, he never fully rebounded. In 2013 he dominated the competition for the most part except for Detroit (best lineup in the league), NY and Bos.  The NY and Bos stats were one game only...but they were ugly. If they were the exception Jimenez could be the O's #1, if the price is right.

 

At age 30 I see him as a wildcard with far more upside than most of the other remaining alternatives but I suspect he still thinks he's a $20M per guy.  Do you give him a large one year deal and lose a pick or does his agent wake up and bring him down to a more reasonable expectation on a three year deal? For the hypothetical contract you mentioned before (3 yrs, $36M with a 4th year option) would you prefer Santana or Jimenez? Both had similar overall 2013s but Santana was more unpredictable from game to game (lights out vs Detroit) whereas Jimenez was steady except for 3-4 starts. 

Edited by weenie

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MLBTR is saying the O's are one of the teams talking to Jimenez but the word is that his asking price is still too high...

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To be fair, for the period from April thru July 2010, there was no better pitcher in baseball than Ubaldo.  He finished that year 3rd in the CY behind Halladay and Wainwright but Colorado contended that year largely cuz of him. He was a legit #1 back then but they overused him to try and reach the playoffs and IMO, he never fully rebounded. In 2013 he dominated the competition for the most part except for Detroit (best lineup in the league), NY and Bos.  The NY and Bos stats were one game only...but they were ugly. If they were the exception Jimenez could be the O's #1, if the price is right.

 

 

Exactly. He showed great stuff and great potential with Colorado and he was brilliant in the second half of the 2013 season. I think the biggest problem for Jimenez is the lack of consistency from year to year. Teams don't know exactly what they're going to get with a guy like him.

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To be fair, for the period from April thru July 2010, there was no better pitcher in baseball than Ubaldo.  He finished that year 3rd in the CY behind Halladay and Wainwright but Colorado contended that year largely cuz of him. He was a legit #1 back then but they overused him to try and reach the playoffs and IMO, he never fully rebounded. In 2013 he dominated the competition for the most part except for Detroit (best lineup in the league), NY and Bos.  The NY and Bos stats were one game only...but they were ugly. If they were the exception Jimenez could be the O's #1, if the price is right.

 

At age 30 I see him as a wildcard with far more upside than most of the other remaining alternatives but I suspect he still thinks he's a $20M per guy.  Do you give him a large one year deal and lose a pick or does his agent wake up and bring him down to a more reasonable expectation on a three year deal? For the hypothetical contract you mentioned before (3 yrs, $36M with a 4th year option) would you prefer Santana or Jimenez? Both had similar overall 2013s but Santana was more unpredictable from game to game (lights out vs Detroit) whereas Jimenez was steady except for 3-4 starts. 

you're right, he was very good in 2010. but he was never a #1 starter before or since. other than that year, and a couple of months in 2013, he has been a back of the rotation pitcher. his track record says he's a #4 pitcher. I'm not willing to bestow the title "#1 starter" on a guy who has only pitched to that level for 1 season, 4 years ago. as a GM, I'm not inclined to give him the offer I suggested for Santana. I may be wrong, but I have no interest in Jimenez joining the O's, if the price tag is beyond #4 money.   

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