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Ravens say draft is all about luck


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#1 Steveg85321

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 11:45 AM

I know people on here generally discredit anything written on Yahoo! (link to article), but since it has been pretty slow in this forum lately, why not toss this out there for debate?

 

The Baltimore Ravens Have A Brilliant New Philosophy On The NFL Draft

 

"We look at the draft as, in some respects, a luck-driven process. The more picks you have, the more chances you have to get a good player," assistant GM Eric DeCosta told Jenny Vrentas of MMQB. "When we look at teams that draft well, it’s not necessarily that they’re drafting better than anybody else, it seems to be that they have more picks."

 

"... almost half the time (48%), a player will end up being better than the guy who was drafted him before him at his position."

 

"The Ravens decided that amassing draft picks is the best way to get value in the draft, team execs told Vrentas. They have received the most compensatory draft picks (which teams get when a good free agent leaves for any other team) of any team in the league since 1994.

The idea is to get more picks, not necessarily higher picks."

 

Practical application for fans - if you are waiting eagerly to see what the Ravens do with their first round pick, don't be surprised if they trade it for multiple later picks.


Edited by Steveg85321, 05 May 2014 - 11:46 AM.


#2 bmore_ken

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 12:03 PM

I don't think that's really news


Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#3 reg_indy

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 01:52 PM

I don't think that's really news

 

 

Or a revelation....


Terrell Suggs is doing all that he can fan the flames on the Ravens’ feud with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Underneath his uniform, the linebacker/defensive end has been wearing a black t-shirt with the letters “YBYSA” on the front and the saying, “You Bet Your Sweet *** I Hate the Steelers” on the back.

"I saw it in a store, and I was like, 'Oh, that’s nice for camp. Get our minds right,'" Suggs said

#4 OriginalColtsFan

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 05:28 PM

Or a good thing.



#5 bmore_ken

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 07:33 PM

Or a good thing.

It can be. Phil Savage was on 105.7 with Steve Davis this afternoon. He said they were all set to take Napolean Harris in the 2002 draft when Oakland grabbed him at the spot before them at 23. They had to settle for their next man on the board at 24.  ;)


Edited by bmore_ken, 05 May 2014 - 07:34 PM.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#6 RIKMAN

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 07:50 PM

I expect them to trade out the 17 in a very deep draft. Lots of o line help available.
Baltimore Sports fan since 1965!:cool:

Confusing the delusional with fact since 2005!

#7 OriginalColtsFan

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 08:17 PM

I expect them to trade out the 17 in a very deep draft. Lots of o line help available.

Why don't you list the o-line help that's available past the first 10-15 spots then.

 

TIA.



#8 OriginalColtsFan

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 08:18 PM

It can be. Phil Savage was on 105.7 with Steve Davis this afternoon. He said they were all set to take Napolean Harris in the 2002 draft when Oakland grabbed him at the spot before them at 23. They had to settle for their next man on the board at 24.  ;)

Luck really doesn't win -- or build -- championships. Yes, it's a part. But it's not a part you jump up and down over.



#9 demopublican

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 05:50 AM

Funny, I heard this on the radio and thought: they are planning to trade up for someone.
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#10 OriginalColtsFan

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 06:34 AM

Funny, I heard this on the radio and thought: they are planning to trade up for someone.

One of two things are possible:

 

1. The Ravens will follow suit with what they've done -- and have never done -- and that's NOT to trade up in the first round.

2. This is all a smoke screen and they're going to finally do what they've needed to do since 1996 and that's trade up and get their RT for the next 5 years.



#11 Steveg85321

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 08:06 AM

I am in favor of trading up to get one of the prime RTs, and it strikes me that a brilliant move would be to do that - going against their established strategy.

 

That said, the logic of trading down for more picks makes sense as well. What if you trade up, essentially putting most of your apples in one basket, and that guy is a bust for any of a number of reasons? And the observation that 48% of draft picks turn out to be better than the guy picked before them at that position is interesting. Another recent article pointed out the Ravens' attraction for players from smaller schools, which would seem risky considering the level of competition their records are made against. It tells me they are more interested in a player's tools and makeup (and I'm not sure how they assess those) than his accomplishments. So more picks rather than higher picks is their emphasis (I know I know, everybody already knows this). It is an extreme example, but six QBs were drafted before Tom Brady (including Chris Redman by the Ravens), so you really cannot predict a successful career based on draft position. Maybe "luck" is not the best word, more like "fortune favors the prepared."



#12 bmore_ken

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 10:01 AM

It is an extreme example, but six QBs were drafted before Tom Brady (including Chris Redman by the Ravens), so you really cannot predict a successful career based on draft position. Maybe "luck" is not the best word, more like "fortune favors the prepared."

Nahh  luck is the right word. Brady was drafted by the Pats, but we'd have never even heard of the guy if Drew Bledsoe hadn't gotten hurt. 


Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#13 OriginalColtsFan

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 12:35 PM

I am in favor of trading up to get one of the prime RTs, and it strikes me that a brilliant move would be to do that - going against their established strategy.

 

That said, the logic of trading down for more picks makes sense as well. What if you trade up, essentially putting most of your apples in one basket, and that guy is a bust for any of a number of reasons? And the observation that 48% of draft picks turn out to be better than the guy picked before them at that position is interesting. Another recent article pointed out the Ravens' attraction for players from smaller schools, which would seem risky considering the level of competition their records are made against. It tells me they are more interested in a player's tools and makeup (and I'm not sure how they assess those) than his accomplishments. So more picks rather than higher picks is their emphasis (I know I know, everybody already knows this). It is an extreme example, but six QBs were drafted before Tom Brady (including Chris Redman by the Ravens), so you really cannot predict a successful career based on draft position. Maybe "luck" is not the best word, more like "fortune favors the prepared."

Preston has an article this morning that really nails it, IMO. He talks about this year NOT being the year for the typical Ravens "projects". Projects are fine, to a point. But this year they need to nail an IMPACT player (let's not get into the whole "star", "impact" player discussion again.). This is NOT the year to be stocking up projects. And I agree with his position.



#14 johnpolitics

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 08:19 PM

Luck and how the player is developed. If Brady had been drafted by 20 other teams he might have never had an NFL career. The year the Pats draft him they kept him as the teams FOURTH QB. The Packers had Farve in his prime so it made sense to cut Kurt Warner. Victor Cruz was the 5th WR at the start of the 2011 season and started in the Super Bowl. 



#15 Struds

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 06:14 AM

Preston has an article this morning that really nails it, IMO. He talks about this year NOT being the year for the typical Ravens "projects". Projects are fine, to a point. But this year they need to nail an IMPACT player (let's not get into the whole "star", "impact" player discussion again.). This is NOT the year to be stocking up projects. And I agree with his position.

Who are you and what have you done with "Preston is a hack OCF"?? :lol:

 

I read that too and agree with him as well.  If a team is already set at most positions, drafting projects is acceptable.  The Ravens need quality OL and free safety help immediately; if that cannot be obtained in the draft, then it had better be found through free agency. 



#16 OriginalColtsFan

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 06:33 AM

Who are you and what have you done with "Preston is a hack OCF"?? :lol:

Hey...I call 'em like I see 'em.

 

:cool:



#17 OriginalColtsFan

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 07:14 AM

OK. I think it's time to revise my take on the draft. Since the only acceptable first round draft pick at RT has to be an impact player who is capable of starting right out of the box or else it's a wasted pick, and despite all the hype over this years draft picks, I think the only gimmes out of the OT group are Mattews and Robinson, and I'm sure they'll be gone long before the Ravens could have a realistic shot, even factoring in moving up to try to grab one of them. I don't think the Ravens can move up THAT far. If it were a couple of spots, say from 17 to 14, or even 17 to 10, maybe. But these guys are probably going to go in the top 5-7, and it's just not going to happen that the Ravens could get either one of them.

 

After those two, when you look at the rest of the group...they've all got weaknesses. Lewan is compared to Nate Solder, and I don't know if that's necessarily a good thing. I've seen Solder get beaten like a rental car, and he was sort of eased into the NFL rather than being an out of the gate take command kind of player.

 

Martin is a short-armed guy who might fit in better as a guard in the NFL. Kouandjio is more of a project at this point in time, and that's exactly what the Ravens DON'T need.

 

So despite the fact that I feel it's critical for the Ravens to fix the gaping hole that's been the RT position, I don't think the draft is the way to go in 2014. Bring in some serviceable RT and wait another year to try to fix it on a more permanent basis.


Edited by OriginalColtsFan, 07 May 2014 - 07:15 AM.


#18 Dub

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 09:25 AM

Why don't you list the o-line help that's available past the first 10-15 spots then.

 

TIA.

 

That's kind of hard to know, figuring the draft hasn't happened yet, -_- .

 

I agree with either trading out of the #17 pick or selecting hopefully an O-Lineman. From what I understand the Ravens needs teams to make a run on QBs to have a player they highly want fall to them. I think Lewan or Martin would be great. Hopefully the teams that are always drafting QBs continue to do so in the first round such as the Browns and Raiders.



#19 OriginalColtsFan

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 09:29 AM

That's kind of hard to know, figuring the draft hasn't happened yet, -_- .

 

I agree with either trading out of the #17 pick or selecting hopefully an O-Lineman. From what I understand the Ravens needs teams to make a run on QBs to have a player they highly want fall to them. I think Lewan or Martin would be great. Hopefully the teams that are always drafting QBs continue to do so in the first round such as the Browns and Raiders.

I'm not the one who said that there's "lots of o line help available", though, was I?

 

And I don't think either Lewan or Martin are worth 1st round picks to fill the RT spot.






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