Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Thirteen

The Offseason Prediction Thread

65 posts in this topic

I know, there's still three more games scheduled, but for all intents and purposes, the season is over, and I'm going to be away next week when this thread should really be started.

 

Who would you resign and who do you think will be resigned?

 

Chris Davis - Yes they should / No, they won't pay what's needed

Matt Wieters - No they shouldn't / No they won't, unless he takes the QO

Wei-Yen Chen - I'm ambivalent, but sure, why not? / No they won't

Darren O'Day - Should / Won't

Steve Pearce - Shouldn't / Will

Brian Matusz - Who cares? / Will

Gerardo Parra - I could go either way / They probably will, and I'm okay with that

Nolan Reimold - No, they shouldn't / Yes, they will, and I'm not okay with that

 

 

Arbitration Eligible Players - who do you non-tender?

 

Brad Brach - eh, who cares

Zach Britton - keep

Steve Clevenger - keep

Ryan Flaherty - cut cut cut

Miguel Gonzalez - keep

David Lough - buh bye

Manny Machado - SIGN HIM LONG TERM

TJ McFarlane - goodbye

Jimmy Paredes - keep

Chris Tillman - keep

 

What other free agents/trades do you see them pursuing?

 

They go get Ryan Howard to replace Chris Davis, and he will be DFA'd by June

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who would you resign and who do you think will be resigned?


 


Chris Davis - I can't decide. But I'm leaning more toward resign him. But I don't think it will happen - $$$


Matt Wieters - No they shouldn't 


Wei-Yen Chen - I think he's a good pitcher, and dependable/consistent. But FA lefties get lots of money. Isolated from the total efforts of retooling, I say resign him. But with other moves that should/need to be made, he may not be the best use of the money it will take to keep him. Again, I don't think he will resign. 


Darren O'Day - Absolutely resign him. He's worth the money he'll get. 


Steve Pearce - I can't answer this in a simple yes/no reply. He's a good utility guy. But the team is too bloated with mix and match utility players. If they trim the roster, he's worth a spot. But only in a utility role.


Brian Matusz - NO!


Gerardo Parra - He's a plus D at all 3 OF positions. That will allow the team to cut bait on their mix and match losers. You guys know who I'm talking about. He doesn't K as much as most O's. But he isn't really an impact bat. I've been on the "resign him" train, but I may be getting off at the next stop. What will he cost? I guess that's when I'll make my decision.   


Nolan Reimold - NO!


 


 


Arbitration Eligible Players - who do you non-tender?


 


Brad Brach - Meh


Zach Britton - keep


Steve Clevenger - keep


Ryan Flaherty - Keep, but I'm open to cutting him if there's a better utility SS/bat.


Miguel Gonzalez - keep


David Lough - NO!


Manny Machado - Enjoy him while he's here. The team ignored their chance to dazzle a young man with a team friendly long term deal (see: Chris Archer). Now he's a platinum glove defender who hits 30+ bombs and gets on base 36% of the time. It's too late, he's arrived, and he'll get his $$$...somewhere else.


TJ McFarlane - NO!


Jimmy Paredes - keep


Chris Tillman - keep


 


What other free agents/trades do you see them pursuing?


 


They go get Ryan Howard to replace Chris Davis, and he will be DFA'd by June - Agreed


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not going to go through the list, but I'd like to see Lough, Matusz and Reimold gone.  At least 2 of the 3 better not be on the roster next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Davis - The Orioles will sit on their hands until they see how the market shapes up, Angelos will refuse to admit that they like/need/and/or/want him for fear it will affect his negotiating position, Boras will play hardball, Duquette will replace him with some bargain basement journeyman, and next year we'll see Chris Davis in a Red Sox or Yankees uniform. Bet on it.

 

Wishing they'd keep Chen, O'Day, Pearce, and Parra.

 

Pay Britton, Tillman, Gonzales and Paredes. And for the love of God make Machado an Oriole always.

 

Unfortunately, these are wishes, not predictions. I don't trust Angelos and Duquette to act in the best interest of the fans.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone who costs actual money will be gone, and in 3 years, so will Machado.

 

1B will be Ryan Howard.

OF signings will be more no-name throwaways.

O'Day will come back

Starting pitcher signings will be veterans on their last legs. Kyle Lohse, maybe. Guys like that.

 

The team will return to the dark ages of Orioles baseball, when 66 wins, dwindling attendance, and failed draft picks were the Oriole way. I hope everyone enjoyed the ride, because it's going to be another extended rebuilding process.

 

This is EXACTLY what I was afraid of, and why I never really bought the team's success. When you don't behave like a winner, acquire and develop talent like a winner, and show urgency like a winner, you don't win for very long.

Edited by Slidemaster

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone who costs actual money will be gone, and in 3 years, so will Machado.

 

1B will be Ryan Howard.

OF signings will be more no-name throwaways.

O'Day will come back

Starting pitcher signings will be veterans on their last legs. Kyle Lohse, maybe. Guys like that.

 

The team will return to the dark ages of Orioles baseball, when 66 wins, dwindling attendance, and failed draft picks were the Oriole way. I hope everyone enjoyed the ride, because it's going to be another extended rebuilding process.

 

This is EXACTLY what I was afraid of, and why I never really bought the team's success. When you don't behave like a winner, acquire and develop talent like a winner, and show urgency like a winner, you don't win for very long.

 

Stay tuned for the continuing rift that will really get exposed in January between Dumpster Dan and The Show when NOTHING gets accomplished.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Who would you resign and who do you think will be resigned?

 

[...]

 

Gerardo Parra - He's a plus D at all 3 OF positions. That will allow the team to cut bait on their mix and match losers. You guys know who I'm talking about. He doesn't K as much as most O's. But he isn't really an impact bat. I've been on the "resign him" train, but I may be getting off at the next stop. What will he cost? I guess that's when I'll make my decision.   

 

[...]

 

He's a league avg bat that was flat out raking in MIL and for whatever reason fell off the cliff here in BAL. But as you noted, his plus D at multiple OF positions makes him a good sign, and his 97 OPS+ says to me he can be had on the (relatively) cheap. He's worth it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the Orioles aren't speaking to Scott Boras right now about keeping Davis, he's gone.

 

If Angelos doesn't pick up the phone and personally call Davis in the next couple of days, he's gone.

 

If Buck and Dan don't take Davis out to dinner in the next week or two, he's gone.

 

This has always been my problem with the O's. They don't court the players they say they want.

 

I remember when Mussina became a free agent. The Yanks wined and dined him. Joe Torre personally drove him around West Chester to show him neighborhoods where he could live that satisfied his desire to live a more bucolic, non urban lifestyle. When the Yanks want someone, the whole organization gets involved. Key players will pick up the phone, et cetera.

 

If the O's don't do this with Davis they're morons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the Orioles aren't speaking to Scott Boras right now about keeping Davis, he's gone.

 

If Angelos doesn't pick up the phone and personally call Davis in the next couple of days, he's gone.

 

If Buck and Dan don't take Davis out to dinner in the next week or two, he's gone.

 

This has always been my problem with the O's. They don't court the players they say they want.

 

I remember when Mussina became a free agent. The Yanks wined and dined him. Joe Torre personally drove him around West Chester to show him neighborhoods where he could live that satisfied his desire to live a more bucolic, non urban lifestyle. When the Yanks want someone, the whole organization gets involved. Key players will pick up the phone, et cetera.

 

If the O's don't do this with Davis they're morons.

I get what you're saying with NY's approach to courting players, but that wouldn't apply to this particular case, because he's already an Oriole.

 

They should be doing that with players they want to add though. AJ is the captain, and he's respected. He should definitely be involved in the FA shopping process. I remember reading that Atl send a delegation to Nick's house, and they went to dinner. Two days later, he signed with them. I can't recall ever reading stories about the O's doing that sort of thing. Maybe someone can refresh my memory. The closest they came to that kind of behavior, was when Buck flew to meet Rasmus last winter. From the reports on that situation, it was Buck getting a 1st hand meeting, to see if Rasmus wouldn't fit in with his team. That's important stuff, but it was more like a job interview.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I get what you're saying with NY's approach to courting players, but that wouldn't apply to this particular case, because he's already an Oriole.

 

They should be doing that with players they want to add though. AJ is the captain, and he's respected. He should definitely be involved in the FA shopping process. I remember reading that Atl send a delegation to Nick's house, and they went to dinner. Two days later, he signed with them. I can't recall ever reading stories about the O's doing that sort of thing. Maybe someone can refresh my memory. The closest they came to that kind of behavior, was when Buck flew to meet Rasmus last winter. From the reports on that situation, it was Buck getting a 1st hand meeting, to see if Rasmus wouldn't fit in with his team. That's important stuff, but it was more like a job interview.   

I respectfully disagree. While Jones is unquestionably the leader on the team, Davis is also a leader who has said that he wants to know where the team is going before signing a long term deal - this was after the Markakis departure.

 

Buck and DD should meet with Davis, say we want to keep you as the cornerstone of the O's infield (no more of this inane right field stuff) and these are the other players we're targeting to put us back in the post season.

 

That should happen this week. If it doesn't. He's gone and you'll be reading quotes about how he "never really heard from the O's."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like it when the ballplayers speak up about the front office moves. If anyone has a reason to be honest it would be them with their monetary interest in what happens with the club. I still remember Melvin Mora asking "who is going to pitch for us"?, after one particularly dreadful off-season. And then I realized it wasn't just the fans that wondered about the Os front office

Edited by TheJudgement

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I respectfully disagree. While Jones is unquestionably the leader on the team, Davis is also a leader who has said that he wants to know where the team is going before signing a long term deal - this was after the Markakis departure.

 

Buck and DD should meet with Davis, say we want to keep you as the cornerstone of the O's infield (no more of this inane right field stuff) and these are the other players we're targeting to put us back in the post season.

 

That should happen this week. If it doesn't. He's gone and you'll be reading quotes about how he "never really heard from the O's."

Yes, they should take advantage of their exclusive negotiating window. But the other courting stuff isn't something teams typically do with players that are already with the club. That is pretty much reserved for new acquisitions.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, they should take advantage of their exclusive negotiating window. But the other courting stuff isn't something teams typically do with players that are already with the club. That is pretty much reserved for new acquisitions.  

 

 

They need to Back the Brinks trucks up to the Davis house, the Machado House and the Schoop House.

 

Start the offers for Davis and Machado at 20 million. 4-5 years for Davis, 6-8 for Machado and Schoop.

 

Not like there won't be higher and longer offers out there.

 

Do that NOW, and energize the city and fanbase.

 

Then, go get a pitcher.

 

There's zero reason not to.

Edited by reg_indy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They need to Back the Brinks trucks up to the Davis house, the Machado House and the Schoop House.

 

Start the offers for Davis and Machado at 20 million. 4-5 years for Davis, 6-8 for Machado and Schoop.

 

Not like there won't be higher and longer offers out there.

 

Do that NOW, and energize the city and fanbase.

 

Then, go get a pitcher.

 

There's zero reason not to.

Two pitchers :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They need to Back the Brinks trucks up to the Davis house, the Machado House and the Schoop House.

 

Start the offers for Davis and Machado at 20 million. 4-5 years for Davis, 6-8 for Machado and Schoop.

 

Not like there won't be higher and longer offers out there.

 

Do that NOW, and energize the city and fanbase.

 

Then, go get a pitcher.

 

There's zero reason not to.

I agree with you about extending Manny & JS. But I just can't fully get behind keeping Davis. To be fair, I'm not sure I want to see him leave either. 

 

Since the O's have returned to being a contending team, there has been 1 consistent criticism from the fans on this board (and other outlets). That criticism is that the team is built around the home run. It's a team of players who are all or nothing power hitters. Davis is the quintessential example of that type of hitter. If they're going to become a more balanced team, they need to start moving in that direction immediately.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone who costs actual money will be gone, and in 3 years, so will Machado.

 

1B will be Ryan Howard.

OF signings will be more no-name throwaways.

O'Day will come back

Starting pitcher signings will be veterans on their last legs. Kyle Lohse, maybe. Guys like that.

 

The team will return to the dark ages of Orioles baseball, when 66 wins, dwindling attendance, and failed draft picks were the Oriole way. I hope everyone enjoyed the ride, because it's going to be another extended rebuilding process.

 

This is EXACTLY what I was afraid of, and why I never really bought the team's success. When you don't behave like a winner, acquire and develop talent like a winner, and show urgency like a winner, you don't win for very long.

The return of Nate McLouth. I'd almost bet on it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with you about extending Manny & JS. But I just can't fully get behind keeping Davis. To be fair, I'm not sure I want to see him leave either.

 

Since the O's have returned to being a contending team, there has been 1 consistent criticism from the fans on this board (and other outlets). That criticism is that the team is built around the home run. It's a team of players who are all or nothing power hitters. Davis is the quintessential example of that type of hitter. If they're going to become a more balanced team, they need to start moving in that direction immediately.

Davis would be an awesome guy to have if you had more high percentage on base guys.

Plus Davis might have really been hurt. When he was batting terribly to beginning of this year I just felt like his 53 Homer year was an anomaly, but maybe he actually IS a better hitter. Maybe it was the injuries.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The return of Nate McLouth. I'd almost bet on it. 

Probably if the O's don't bring back Parra.  If Parra comes back, Flash will be in mix for LH piece of platoon with Reimold in LF and no need for McClouth.  Why else did he play so much down the stretch.  Buck made sure he show cased his guys for next year. A LF platoon of Flash and Reimold would make you throw up in your mouth a little. But Buck would be in hog heaven with that set up. BTW, Flash barely stayed over the Mendoza line at .202 for year with that extended playing time down stretch. if I was DD my first order of off season business would be to deal Flaherty away just to eliminate the temptation of Buck trying to get him 300ABs next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with you about extending Manny & JS. But I just can't fully get behind keeping Davis. To be fair, I'm not sure I want to see him leave either. 

 

Since the O's have returned to being a contending team, there has been 1 consistent criticism from the fans on this board (and other outlets). That criticism is that the team is built around the home run. It's a team of players who are all or nothing power hitters. Davis is the quintessential example of that type of hitter. If they're going to become a more balanced team, they need to start moving in that direction immediately.  

Davis is already greasing skids for his exit.  When asked about his future in Free Agency he was quoted as saying "Its out of my hands now".  That is a WTF statement for sure.  Typical of the brainwashed Boras client.  These are the kind of things that Davis says that leave you scratching your head.  Put your long term cash in Manny and get two established starters like Kennedy and Fister. First base will be a one year stop gap while they wait on Trey Mancini for 2017 if not sooner.

No one will be crying about Davis next year on another team when he is in one of his black hole slumps while sucking up 23 million in payroll.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Davis is not coming back, Machado isn't getting extended, and they will not sign pitchers of value. They're going back to the cellar for a few years while they rebuild.*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*Rebuilding the Oriole way means drafting poorly and neglecting the FA market until lightning is caught in a bottle for a few seasons while the status quo is maintained.

Edited by Slidemaster

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hearing CD's and DD's comments makes you realize it will be same-old same-old. There's pretty much no player the orioles will pay the premium going rate. And, in my opinion, in the vast majority of cases that is the *correct* decision. Just because other teams are beyond stupid with their money doesn't mean every team should. The problem is the Orioles never do it. Not since Miguel Tejada, and in that case the market was somewhat depressed because the big money teams did not bid for him (they were already set at SS). 

 

Suffice to say there are times when the Orioles need to show some willingness to spend big. I have said many times that I would almost never spend enormous money on a starting pitcher. A few years back I said I'd be willing to make an exception for Zach Greinke. Looking at him I thought there was a smaller risk that he would turn into a rag-arm pulling down 20-some million in the middle years of his contract. I was right when I said it. But I would not touch him now, even with the terrific years he's had recently. The innings are really starting to pile up on that arm and eventually (probably soon) it will come to a point where he's a very expensive liability. You have to pick and choose your spots carefully when investing that kind of money.

 

CD is/was a guy they could have negotiated with (it's uncertain what teams are out there willing to commit a huge deal) and according to him there's been very little or nothing discussed with the Orioles. DD said they offered him an extension in 2013. Whoa how impressive is that? That's typical Orioles. Now it's probably too late. 

I think there's two reasons the Orioles are always a day late and a dollar short.

1. Peter Angelos won't allow the GM to make the big dollar decisions and I think Pete waits too long so people move on to the next option.

2. The MASN lawsuit

 

Both of these need to be resolved before the orioles have a reasonable chance to compete on a year-to-year basis. Let's see them prove me wrong. The only thing that might change that is they start drafting much better, because guys are cheap in the draft. But of course the orioles have a horrific track record in the draft, so.....

Edited by aurelius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Davis is not coming back, Machado isn't getting extended, and they will not sign pitchers of value. They're going back to the cellar for a few years while they rebuild.*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*Rebuilding the Oriole way means drafting poorly and neglecting the FA market until lightning is caught in a bottle for a few seasons while the status quo is maintained.

 

 

    I doubt that Davis is coming back. 

 

    IMO, Davis is going to go where the maximum money is. ( I don't blame him.)

 

    On the other hand, Machado is willing to discuss an extension.http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-...o-be-with.html

 

    This would be a great time to  wrap him up. ( $ coming off of the books.)

 

     The orioles need to address their starting pitching, and I think that they sign two starters.

Edited by russsnyder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with you about extending Manny & JS. But I just can't fully get behind keeping Davis. To be fair, I'm not sure I want to see him leave either. 

 

Since the O's have returned to being a contending team, there has been 1 consistent criticism from the fans on this board (and other outlets). That criticism is that the team is built around the home run. It's a team of players who are all or nothing power hitters. Davis is the quintessential example of that type of hitter. If they're going to become a more balanced team, they need to start moving in that direction immediately.  

 

 

With AJ, Manny, Davis, and Schoop, you have a dynamic power hitting lineup. Toss in a few high On base percentage guys, and it could be devastating.

 

Davis is a pure power hitter, who plays decent defense. I'll take this year, every year, warts and all, for 4-6 more years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I doubt that Davis is coming back.

 

IMO, Davis is going to go where the maximum money is. ( I don't blame him.)

 

On the other hand, Machado is willing to discuss an extension.http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-...o-be-with.html

 

This would be a great time to wrap him up. ( $ coming off of the books.)

 

The orioles need to address their starting pitching, and I think that they sign two starters.

Until Boras steps in. His clients do not extend unless they flatly go against his wishes.

 

Edit: Looks like he's not a Boras client - I thought he was at least at one point. Maybe there is a prayer.

Edited by Slidemaster

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Davis is not coming back, Machado isn't getting extended, and they will not sign pitchers of value. They're going back to the cellar for a few years while they rebuild.*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*Rebuilding the Oriole way means drafting poorly and neglecting the FA market until lightning is caught in a bottle for a few seasons while the status quo is maintained.

With a few good Trades it only takes a year or two to rebuild a struggling team.

 

Look to the Cubs and Astros for recent examples

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0