Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Thirteen

The Offseason Prediction Thread

65 posts in this topic

With a few good Trades it only takes a year or two to rebuild a struggling team.

 

Look to the Cubs and Astros for recent examples

Two teams with excellent scouting and development. The O's can't do either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two teams with excellent scouting and development. The O's can't do either.

Well you would think that after all the consecutive losing seasons the Os had they would've drafted more good First Round picks but it doesn't seem like their Farm system is stacked with great prospects.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well you would think that after all the consecutive losing seasons the Os had they would've drafted more good First Round picks but it doesn't seem like their Farm system is stacked with great prospects.

It should be.

 

In the 12 years that the O's have had a top 10 overall pick, only 4 have made it to the big club. And one of those is Matusz. 9 out of their 12 picks, were busts. And they didn't fair any better with their first rounders that were beyond the top 10. You have to go all the way back to Jayson Werth in 1997, beyond that, you have to go back to '92 and Jeffrey Hammonds. In 20 years of 1st rounders, the O's pulled up lame 14 times. The term "Epic Failure" gets used a lot, but in this case it's appropriate.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weird-O I don't doubt what you say, but wonder how well teams in general do in the MLB draft? Seems like it is a longer shot than NFL or NBA drafting. But that record is pretty poor for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weird-O I don't doubt what you say, but wonder how well teams in general do in the MLB draft? Seems like it is a longer shot than NFL or NBA drafting. But that record is pretty poor for sure.

It's hard to find a team with an equal stretch of top 10 picks. But Tampa came to mind, so I looked up their success rate. They had a top 10 pick from '99 - '08. Here's how well they did:

 

Josh Hamilton, Baldelli, Upton, Delmon Young, Longoria, Price

 

That's 6 impact players in 10 years. 

 

KC: They didn't have a long stretch of top 10 picks, but here's how they did with their last 10: Colon, Hosmer, Moustakas, Hochaver, Alex Gordon, Grienke 

 

Houston: here's their last 6 top 10 picks: Aiken, Appel, Correa, Springer (#11, so I stretched it a bit), DeShields Jr (now impacting the Rangers), Jason Castro (not an impact player, but stuck with the team)

 

And there are still several teams I didn't bother to look up. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's hard to find a team with an equal stretch of top 10 picks. But Tampa came to mind, so I looked up their success rate. They had a top 10 pick from '99 - '08. Here's how well they did:

 

Josh Hamilton, Baldelli, Upton, Delmon Young, Longoria, Price

 

That's 6 impact players in 10 years.

 

KC: They didn't have a long stretch of top 10 picks, but here's how they did with their last 10: Colon, Hosmer, Moustakas, Hochaver, Alex Gordon, Grienke

 

Houston: here's their last 6 top 10 picks: Aiken, Appel, Correa, Springer (#11, so I stretched it a bit), DeShields Jr (now impacting the Rangers), Jason Castro (not an impact player, but stuck with the team)

 

And there are still several teams I didn't bother to look up.

:(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:(

I know, right?

 

AM made some good choices, but he wasn't anywhere near the success rate of those other teams. DD's history is too recent to comment on. But his first pick was Gausman. Harvey has impressed, but the O's have been snake bit when it comes to pitchers, and he has been put on the shelf most of this season. Mountcastle and Stewart are his other two picks.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's hard to find a team with an equal stretch of top 10 picks. But Tampa came to mind, so I looked up their success rate. They had a top 10 pick from '99 - '08. Here's how well they did:

 

Josh Hamilton, Baldelli, Upton, Delmon Young, Longoria, Price

 

That's 6 impact players in 10 years.

 

KC: They didn't have a long stretch of top 10 picks, but here's how they did with their last 10: Colon, Hosmer, Moustakas, Hochaver, Alex Gordon, Grienke

 

Houston: here's their last 6 top 10 picks: Aiken, Appel, Correa, Springer (#11, so I stretched it a bit), DeShields Jr (now impacting the Rangers), Jason Castro (not an impact player, but stuck with the team)

 

And there are still several teams I didn't bother to look up.

Great examples.

 

In terms of drafting top prospects, it pays to have a losing season or two. Many top 10 picks sprint through the Minor leagues and are able to contribute to the MLB team relatively quickly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's hard to find a team with an equal stretch of top 10 picks. But Tampa came to mind, so I looked up their success rate. They had a top 10 pick from '99 - '08. Here's how well they did:

 

Josh Hamilton, Baldelli, Upton, Delmon Young, Longoria, Price

 

That's 6 impact players in 10 years.

 

KC: They didn't have a long stretch of top 10 picks, but here's how they did with their last 10: Colon, Hosmer, Moustakas, Hochaver, Alex Gordon, Grienke

 

Houston: here's their last 6 top 10 picks: Aiken, Appel, Correa, Springer (#11, so I stretched it a bit), DeShields Jr (now impacting the Rangers), Jason Castro (not an impact player, but stuck with the team)

 

And there are still several teams I didn't bother to look up.

I didn't bother researching it, but weren't some of those guys #1 overall?

Edited by bmore_ken

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the Orioles aren't speaking to Scott Boras right now about keeping Davis, he's gone.

 

If Angelos doesn't pick up the phone and personally call Davis in the next couple of days, he's gone.

 

If Buck and Dan don't take Davis out to dinner in the next week or two, he's gone.

 

This has always been my problem with the O's. They don't court the players they say they want.

 

I remember when Mussina became a free agent. The Yanks wined and dined him. Joe Torre personally drove him around West Chester to show him neighborhoods where he could live that satisfied his desire to live a more bucolic, non urban lifestyle. When the Yanks want someone, the whole organization gets involved. Key players will pick up the phone, et cetera.

 

If the O's don't do this with Davis they're morons.

The Oriole management is a bunch of morons. I’ll give you 3 examples.

 

A few years ago some friends and I had a 13 game ticket plan. Our seats were in the left field stands. We decided that we wanted to upgrade to more expensive seats in the upper deck behind home plate. When I called the Orioles to make the switch they gave me a hard time, demanding to know why I wanted to change (upgrade) my 13 game plan. Someone wants to give you more money and you give them a hard time about it. Moronic.

 

Several years after that my friends and I decided not to renew our 13 game plan. The Orioles never call to find out why we were not renewing. You lose customers and you don’t try to find out why. Moronic.

 

Some years ago the Orioles decided to build their offense around the home run. Last year they let their leading home run hitter get away. Moronic.

 

And now this year, once again, they are probably going to let their leading home run hitter get away. Moronic.

 

I doubt there’s anyone in the Oriole front office that could pass a saliva test.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they make the QO's to all the free agents and get the extra picks 1st thing they need to do to hire some of the better drafting teams scouts.

 

Unless the stories are not true about who they draft because they are cheap, then they need better scouts because they stink. Also player development stinks.

 

If the O's don't sign Davis, the team that gets him better be prepared if he doesn't get his Adderall exemption.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they make the QO's to all the free agents and get the extra picks 1st thing they need to do to hire some of the better drafting teams scouts.

 

Unless the stories are not true about who they draft because they are cheap, then they need better scouts because they stink. Also player development stinks.

 

If the O's don't sign Davis, the team that gets him better be prepared if he doesn't get his Adderall exemption.

I definitely agree with your last sentence.  I know many fans are clamoring for Davis to be signed long term but there's no way in heck I'd give him 20 million a year.  Sorry, I'd rather see the money spent on starting pitching, which cost them the post season this year.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't bother researching it, but weren't some of those guys #1 overall?

To me, this whole thread feels like revisionist history.

The O's have been pretty good over the last 10 years.

They've picked up Wieters, Machado, and Gausman from the 1st round of the draft. Matusz is alright in his role. Harvey looks like he's going to be good, and Montcastle has some talent as well. The jury is still out on Bundy due to his arm problems, but there was no doubt before the arm injuries he was going to be a star. They've had some crappy picks as well, but what team hasn't?

What kills the team are two serious issues:

1. they aren't good on the international market. After DD seemed to get aggressive, the whole Korean debacle seemed to derail all of his efforts.

2. they don't maximize the number of picks in the draft. This has really killed them. While other teams are getting 2,3, even 4 picks in the 1st round, the O's normally have one pick. This kills their chances at getting the top talent, then they also miss it in the later rounds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 of them

You have to really look at that group too.

 

Baldelli couldn't stay on the field and was a bust. Hamilton never performed for them, but was good for another team. Delmon was never 1st round good. BJ was pretty good for them, but probably overrated and has been horrible since.

So out of 6 1st rounders, you really have Price and Longoria.

Check out the Wikipedia list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tampa_Bay_Rays_first-round_draft_picks

Not really many name players out of that group...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To me, this whole thread feels like revisionist history.

The O's have been pretty good over the last 10 years.

They've picked up Wieters, Machado, and Gausman from the 1st round of the draft. Matusz is alright in his role. Harvey looks like he's going to be good, and Montcastle has some talent as well. The jury is still out on Bundy due to his arm problems, but there was no doubt before the arm injuries he was going to be a star. They've had some crappy picks as well, but what team hasn't?

What kills the team are two serious issues:

1. they aren't good on the international market. After DD seemed to get aggressive, the whole Korean debacle seemed to derail all of his efforts.

2. they don't maximize the number of picks in the draft. This has really killed them. While other teams are getting 2,3, even 4 picks in the 1st round, the O's normally have one pick. This kills their chances at getting the top talent, then they also miss it in the later rounds.

One thing to keep in mind, is that I'm not including "potential prospects" in my assessment. I didn't do it for the O's, or the other teams I mentioned. I like the reviews of Harvey and Mountcastle. But, I limited it to players who showed up and stuck with their big clubs. With that said, I just cant agree with your post. I'm not rewriting anything, I'm showing unfiltered results.

 

No GM looks at his first pick of the draft, and says, I want to target a lefty specialist who inconsistently fills a role that is traditionally held by a grizzled veteran that is squeezing the last few drops out of his career. Because that's what they got for the 4th overall pick in 2008 - Matusz. No one is, or should be, expecting the O's to hit a home run with every 1st round pick. No team does that. But the O's have been horrible by comparison.  

 

I don't feel like I'm being overly critical. To prove it, I'll point out the Pirates. Since 1996, they've had 14 top 10 overall draft picks. Here are their sad results: Kris Benson, Neil Walker (#11), McCutchen (#11), Pedro Alvarez, Garrit Cole (#1)

 

I had to allow the two 11th picks, just to take mercy on them :P    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You have to really look at that group too.

 

Baldelli couldn't stay on the field and was a bust. Hamilton never performed for them, but was good for another team. Delmon was never 1st round good. BJ was pretty good for them, but probably overrated and has been horrible since.

So out of 6 1st rounders, you really have Price and Longoria.

Check out the Wikipedia list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tampa_Bay_Rays_first-round_draft_picks

Not really many name players out of that group...

I also did the same for the O's, by including Hammonds. Sadly, he was too injury prone as well.

 

I didn't get too specific about how good the player(s) became (although I did say "impact player" at one point), because that can get very subjective and be an "eye of the beholder" debate. I tried to keep it at a level playing ground. Did the player(s) stay in the majors. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They'll throw together a patchwork team and maybe bring in some 2nd tier FA and act like he's the second coming.  You can already tell from what Duquette is saying that they won't do what's needed to keep key players here.  It'll be vintage Angelos; play cheap while lying about how you can't compete financially and abuse the fans once again.  We've seen it so many times.  You know what's coming.

Edited by veritas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They'll throw together a patchwork team and maybe bring in some 2nd tier FA and act like he's the second coming.  You can already tell from what Duquette is saying that they won't do what's needed to keep key players here.  It'll be vintage Angelos; play cheap while lying about how you can't compete financially and abuse the fans once again.  We've seen it so many times.  You know what's coming.

 

 

Ain't gonna fly anymore.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One school of thought is there's no way they spend to keep Davis and Chen because Angelos stopped using the big money approach after Albert Belle injury. And that's actually not so far off from how it should work. You can't be the NYY when you're not the NYY. You can try that for a short time but eventually you won't be able to compete for the same reason they didn't compete for so many years - the lack of player development. But now there's another angle that comes into play which is the MASN lawsuit. Certainly no business owner would pile up massive long term commitments without knowing what the future revenue streams will be. All the recent Oriole GM's have given lip service to pedestrian off-season acquisitions, and DD is no exception. The lone exception was the year they went after Teixiera which some would say was half-hearted. They wanted him but only if he would take a little off the asking price for being the home town. That was before MASN blew up on them. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I think after this coming off-season is complete, the Orioles will have plenty of compensation picks sandwiched up there high in the draft... so we'll see what DD does with them, and whether they pan out, in 4 or 5 years...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They don't actually pursue quality free agents, not the top tier.  The only "win" they've had there since the late 90s / early 00s was Nelson Cruz... and that only happened because 1) the market stunningly just fell apart for him (thanks to the PED problem), and 2) he decided to bet on himself and take a 1 year deal to make bigger money in the long run.  It was kind of like walking by a table at the yard sale after everything's been picked over, yet nobody touched the nice TV because they were afraid it would blow up, and you take a chance on it for $5.  Only in baseball, if it works well, it'll re-sell itself to someone else for a lot more money.  :)

 

The Teixeria "pursuit" was a joke.  If you KNOW a guy is getting offers in the ballpark, for example, of 8 years / $200 million from 3 other teams... and you offer him 6 years / $120 million... while you can turn around and say "We offered him a LOT of money, more than we've ever offered anyone else before!" and technically it's true... but it's still pointless.  Like raising your hand at an auction but telling the barker that your offer is 30% less than the current high bid...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can't be the NYY when you're not the NYY.

There's an ocean in between being the NYY and signing bargain basement players as a strategy. You don't have to be the NYY to sign an impact starting pitcher and one decent OFer. That just sounds like more Angelos apologist crap

Edited by bmore_ken

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's an ocean in between being the NYY and signing bargain basement players as a strategy. You don't have to be the NYY to sign an impact starting pitcher and one decent OFer. That just sounds like more Angelos apologist crap

The worst part is, if you want to run your team like a small market team, go ahead. Trade away your top players and stock up on draft picks and load up your player development, while being aggressive on the internation market.

 

They won't even do that right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want to know why in the world DD is talking about trading for pitchers when there is a glut on the market (and many won't cost a pick). Does he realize that we have one of the worst ranked farm systems in MLB? Comments like that give me zero faith in this organization. That and our ability to evaluate pitching and develop it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0