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The Offseason Prediction Thread


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#21 aurelius

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 03:01 AM

Hearing CD's and DD's comments makes you realize it will be same-old same-old. There's pretty much no player the orioles will pay the premium going rate. And, in my opinion, in the vast majority of cases that is the *correct* decision. Just because other teams are beyond stupid with their money doesn't mean every team should. The problem is the Orioles never do it. Not since Miguel Tejada, and in that case the market was somewhat depressed because the big money teams did not bid for him (they were already set at SS). 

 

Suffice to say there are times when the Orioles need to show some willingness to spend big. I have said many times that I would almost never spend enormous money on a starting pitcher. A few years back I said I'd be willing to make an exception for Zach Greinke. Looking at him I thought there was a smaller risk that he would turn into a rag-arm pulling down 20-some million in the middle years of his contract. I was right when I said it. But I would not touch him now, even with the terrific years he's had recently. The innings are really starting to pile up on that arm and eventually (probably soon) it will come to a point where he's a very expensive liability. You have to pick and choose your spots carefully when investing that kind of money.

 

CD is/was a guy they could have negotiated with (it's uncertain what teams are out there willing to commit a huge deal) and according to him there's been very little or nothing discussed with the Orioles. DD said they offered him an extension in 2013. Whoa how impressive is that? That's typical Orioles. Now it's probably too late. 

I think there's two reasons the Orioles are always a day late and a dollar short.

1. Peter Angelos won't allow the GM to make the big dollar decisions and I think Pete waits too long so people move on to the next option.

2. The MASN lawsuit

 

Both of these need to be resolved before the orioles have a reasonable chance to compete on a year-to-year basis. Let's see them prove me wrong. The only thing that might change that is they start drafting much better, because guys are cheap in the draft. But of course the orioles have a horrific track record in the draft, so.....


Edited by aurelius, 06 October 2015 - 03:53 AM.


#22 russsnyder

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 04:19 AM

Davis is not coming back, Machado isn't getting extended, and they will not sign pitchers of value. They're going back to the cellar for a few years while they rebuild.*







*Rebuilding the Oriole way means drafting poorly and neglecting the FA market until lightning is caught in a bottle for a few seasons while the status quo is maintained.

 

 

    I doubt that Davis is coming back. 

 

    IMO, Davis is going to go where the maximum money is. ( I don't blame him.)

 

    On the other hand, Machado is willing to discuss an extension.http://www.masnsport....o-be-with.html

 

    This would be a great time to  wrap him up. ( $ coming off of the books.)

 

     The orioles need to address their starting pitching, and I think that they sign two starters.


Edited by russsnyder, 06 October 2015 - 04:30 AM.


#23 reg_indy

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 11:51 AM

I agree with you about extending Manny & JS. But I just can't fully get behind keeping Davis. To be fair, I'm not sure I want to see him leave either. 

 

Since the O's have returned to being a contending team, there has been 1 consistent criticism from the fans on this board (and other outlets). That criticism is that the team is built around the home run. It's a team of players who are all or nothing power hitters. Davis is the quintessential example of that type of hitter. If they're going to become a more balanced team, they need to start moving in that direction immediately.  

 

 

With AJ, Manny, Davis, and Schoop, you have a dynamic power hitting lineup. Toss in a few high On base percentage guys, and it could be devastating.

 

Davis is a pure power hitter, who plays decent defense. I'll take this year, every year, warts and all, for 4-6 more years.


Terrell Suggs is doing all that he can fan the flames on the Ravens’ feud with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Underneath his uniform, the linebacker/defensive end has been wearing a black t-shirt with the letters “YBYSA” on the front and the saying, “You Bet Your Sweet *** I Hate the Steelers” on the back.

"I saw it in a store, and I was like, 'Oh, that’s nice for camp. Get our minds right,'" Suggs said

#24 Slidemaster

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 12:16 PM

I doubt that Davis is coming back.

IMO, Davis is going to go where the maximum money is. ( I don't blame him.)

On the other hand, Machado is willing to discuss an extension.http://www.masnsport....o-be-with.html

This would be a great time to wrap him up. ( $ coming off of the books.)

The orioles need to address their starting pitching, and I think that they sign two starters.

Until Boras steps in. His clients do not extend unless they flatly go against his wishes.

Edit: Looks like he's not a Boras client - I thought he was at least at one point. Maybe there is a prayer.

Edited by Slidemaster, 06 October 2015 - 12:21 PM.

The kids are alright.

#25 soulflower

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 12:43 PM

Davis is not coming back, Machado isn't getting extended, and they will not sign pitchers of value. They're going back to the cellar for a few years while they rebuild.*







*Rebuilding the Oriole way means drafting poorly and neglecting the FA market until lightning is caught in a bottle for a few seasons while the status quo is maintained.


With a few good Trades it only takes a year or two to rebuild a struggling team.

Look to the Cubs and Astros for recent examples
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias"

#26 Slidemaster

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 12:53 PM

With a few good Trades it only takes a year or two to rebuild a struggling team.

Look to the Cubs and Astros for recent examples


Two teams with excellent scouting and development. The O's can't do either.
The kids are alright.

#27 soulflower

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 12:57 PM

Two teams with excellent scouting and development. The O's can't do either.


Well you would think that after all the consecutive losing seasons the Os had they would've drafted more good First Round picks but it doesn't seem like their Farm system is stacked with great prospects.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias"

#28 weird-O

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 01:15 PM

Well you would think that after all the consecutive losing seasons the Os had they would've drafted more good First Round picks but it doesn't seem like their Farm system is stacked with great prospects.

It should be.

 

In the 12 years that the O's have had a top 10 overall pick, only 4 have made it to the big club. And one of those is Matusz. 9 out of their 12 picks, were busts. And they didn't fair any better with their first rounders that were beyond the top 10. You have to go all the way back to Jayson Werth in 1997, beyond that, you have to go back to '92 and Jeffrey Hammonds. In 20 years of 1st rounders, the O's pulled up lame 14 times. The term "Epic Failure" gets used a lot, but in this case it's appropriate.  


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#29 Steveg85321

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 01:38 PM

Weird-O I don't doubt what you say, but wonder how well teams in general do in the MLB draft? Seems like it is a longer shot than NFL or NBA drafting. But that record is pretty poor for sure.



#30 weird-O

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 02:23 PM

Weird-O I don't doubt what you say, but wonder how well teams in general do in the MLB draft? Seems like it is a longer shot than NFL or NBA drafting. But that record is pretty poor for sure.

It's hard to find a team with an equal stretch of top 10 picks. But Tampa came to mind, so I looked up their success rate. They had a top 10 pick from '99 - '08. Here's how well they did:

 

Josh Hamilton, Baldelli, Upton, Delmon Young, Longoria, Price

 

That's 6 impact players in 10 years. 

 

KC: They didn't have a long stretch of top 10 picks, but here's how they did with their last 10: Colon, Hosmer, Moustakas, Hochaver, Alex Gordon, Grienke 

 

Houston: here's their last 6 top 10 picks: Aiken, Appel, Correa, Springer (#11, so I stretched it a bit), DeShields Jr (now impacting the Rangers), Jason Castro (not an impact player, but stuck with the team)

 

And there are still several teams I didn't bother to look up. 


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#31 Guest_TheJudgement_*

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 02:36 PM

It's hard to find a team with an equal stretch of top 10 picks. But Tampa came to mind, so I looked up their success rate. They had a top 10 pick from '99 - '08. Here's how well they did:

Josh Hamilton, Baldelli, Upton, Delmon Young, Longoria, Price

That's 6 impact players in 10 years.

KC: They didn't have a long stretch of top 10 picks, but here's how they did with their last 10: Colon, Hosmer, Moustakas, Hochaver, Alex Gordon, Grienke

Houston: here's their last 6 top 10 picks: Aiken, Appel, Correa, Springer (#11, so I stretched it a bit), DeShields Jr (now impacting the Rangers), Jason Castro (not an impact player, but stuck with the team)

And there are still several teams I didn't bother to look up.


:(

#32 weird-O

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 02:42 PM

:(

I know, right?

 

AM made some good choices, but he wasn't anywhere near the success rate of those other teams. DD's history is too recent to comment on. But his first pick was Gausman. Harvey has impressed, but the O's have been snake bit when it comes to pitchers, and he has been put on the shelf most of this season. Mountcastle and Stewart are his other two picks.  


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#33 soulflower

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 02:56 PM

It's hard to find a team with an equal stretch of top 10 picks. But Tampa came to mind, so I looked up their success rate. They had a top 10 pick from '99 - '08. Here's how well they did:

Josh Hamilton, Baldelli, Upton, Delmon Young, Longoria, Price

That's 6 impact players in 10 years.

KC: They didn't have a long stretch of top 10 picks, but here's how they did with their last 10: Colon, Hosmer, Moustakas, Hochaver, Alex Gordon, Grienke

Houston: here's their last 6 top 10 picks: Aiken, Appel, Correa, Springer (#11, so I stretched it a bit), DeShields Jr (now impacting the Rangers), Jason Castro (not an impact player, but stuck with the team)

And there are still several teams I didn't bother to look up.


Great examples.

In terms of drafting top prospects, it pays to have a losing season or two. Many top 10 picks sprint through the Minor leagues and are able to contribute to the MLB team relatively quickly
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias"

#34 bmore_ken

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 03:05 PM

It's hard to find a team with an equal stretch of top 10 picks. But Tampa came to mind, so I looked up their success rate. They had a top 10 pick from '99 - '08. Here's how well they did:

Josh Hamilton, Baldelli, Upton, Delmon Young, Longoria, Price

That's 6 impact players in 10 years.

KC: They didn't have a long stretch of top 10 picks, but here's how they did with their last 10: Colon, Hosmer, Moustakas, Hochaver, Alex Gordon, Grienke

Houston: here's their last 6 top 10 picks: Aiken, Appel, Correa, Springer (#11, so I stretched it a bit), DeShields Jr (now impacting the Rangers), Jason Castro (not an impact player, but stuck with the team)

And there are still several teams I didn't bother to look up.


I didn't bother researching it, but weren't some of those guys #1 overall?


Edited by bmore_ken, 06 October 2015 - 03:06 PM.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#35 VOSA

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 03:28 PM

If the Orioles aren't speaking to Scott Boras right now about keeping Davis, he's gone.

If Angelos doesn't pick up the phone and personally call Davis in the next couple of days, he's gone.

If Buck and Dan don't take Davis out to dinner in the next week or two, he's gone.

This has always been my problem with the O's. They don't court the players they say they want.

I remember when Mussina became a free agent. The Yanks wined and dined him. Joe Torre personally drove him around West Chester to show him neighborhoods where he could live that satisfied his desire to live a more bucolic, non urban lifestyle. When the Yanks want someone, the whole organization gets involved. Key players will pick up the phone, et cetera.

If the O's don't do this with Davis they're morons.


The Oriole management is a bunch of morons. I’ll give you 3 examples.

A few years ago some friends and I had a 13 game ticket plan. Our seats were in the left field stands. We decided that we wanted to upgrade to more expensive seats in the upper deck behind home plate. When I called the Orioles to make the switch they gave me a hard time, demanding to know why I wanted to change (upgrade) my 13 game plan. Someone wants to give you more money and you give them a hard time about it. Moronic.

Several years after that my friends and I decided not to renew our 13 game plan. The Orioles never call to find out why we were not renewing. You lose customers and you don’t try to find out why. Moronic.

Some years ago the Orioles decided to build their offense around the home run. Last year they let their leading home run hitter get away. Moronic.

And now this year, once again, they are probably going to let their leading home run hitter get away. Moronic.

I doubt there’s anyone in the Oriole front office that could pass a saliva test.



#36 stevez51

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Posted 06 October 2015 - 05:59 PM

If they make the QO's to all the free agents and get the extra picks 1st thing they need to do to hire some of the better drafting teams scouts.

 

Unless the stories are not true about who they draft because they are cheap, then they need better scouts because they stink. Also player development stinks.

 

If the O's don't sign Davis, the team that gets him better be prepared if he doesn't get his Adderall exemption.



#37 jamesdean

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Posted 07 October 2015 - 06:06 AM

If they make the QO's to all the free agents and get the extra picks 1st thing they need to do to hire some of the better drafting teams scouts.

 

Unless the stories are not true about who they draft because they are cheap, then they need better scouts because they stink. Also player development stinks.

 

If the O's don't sign Davis, the team that gets him better be prepared if he doesn't get his Adderall exemption.

I definitely agree with your last sentence.  I know many fans are clamoring for Davis to be signed long term but there's no way in heck I'd give him 20 million a year.  Sorry, I'd rather see the money spent on starting pitching, which cost them the post season this year.  



#38 weird-O

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Posted 07 October 2015 - 06:52 AM

I didn't bother researching it, but weren't some of those guys #1 overall?

5 of them


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#39 Far from home

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Posted 07 October 2015 - 10:19 AM

I didn't bother researching it, but weren't some of those guys #1 overall?


To me, this whole thread feels like revisionist history.
The O's have been pretty good over the last 10 years.
They've picked up Wieters, Machado, and Gausman from the 1st round of the draft. Matusz is alright in his role. Harvey looks like he's going to be good, and Montcastle has some talent as well. The jury is still out on Bundy due to his arm problems, but there was no doubt before the arm injuries he was going to be a star. They've had some crappy picks as well, but what team hasn't?
What kills the team are two serious issues:
1. they aren't good on the international market. After DD seemed to get aggressive, the whole Korean debacle seemed to derail all of his efforts.
2. they don't maximize the number of picks in the draft. This has really killed them. While other teams are getting 2,3, even 4 picks in the 1st round, the O's normally have one pick. This kills their chances at getting the top talent, then they also miss it in the later rounds.
Ideological gravy trains lead to poor decisions.
Learn from the last President, and make this next era one of rebuilding what has been torn down.
Instead of being loyal to your party, be loyal to your country and your people.

#40 Far from home

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Posted 07 October 2015 - 10:24 AM

5 of them


You have to really look at that group too.

Baldelli couldn't stay on the field and was a bust. Hamilton never performed for them, but was good for another team. Delmon was never 1st round good. BJ was pretty good for them, but probably overrated and has been horrible since.
So out of 6 1st rounders, you really have Price and Longoria.
Check out the Wikipedia list:
https://en.wikipedia...und_draft_picks
Not really many name players out of that group...
Ideological gravy trains lead to poor decisions.
Learn from the last President, and make this next era one of rebuilding what has been torn down.
Instead of being loyal to your party, be loyal to your country and your people.




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