Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

The Offseason Prediction Thread


  • Please log in to reply
64 replies to this topic

#41 weird-O

weird-O

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 17,574 posts
  • LocationI'm here from downtown, I'm here from Mitch and Murray.

Posted 07 October 2015 - 11:33 AM

To me, this whole thread feels like revisionist history.
The O's have been pretty good over the last 10 years.
They've picked up Wieters, Machado, and Gausman from the 1st round of the draft. Matusz is alright in his role. Harvey looks like he's going to be good, and Montcastle has some talent as well. The jury is still out on Bundy due to his arm problems, but there was no doubt before the arm injuries he was going to be a star. They've had some crappy picks as well, but what team hasn't?
What kills the team are two serious issues:
1. they aren't good on the international market. After DD seemed to get aggressive, the whole Korean debacle seemed to derail all of his efforts.
2. they don't maximize the number of picks in the draft. This has really killed them. While other teams are getting 2,3, even 4 picks in the 1st round, the O's normally have one pick. This kills their chances at getting the top talent, then they also miss it in the later rounds.

One thing to keep in mind, is that I'm not including "potential prospects" in my assessment. I didn't do it for the O's, or the other teams I mentioned. I like the reviews of Harvey and Mountcastle. But, I limited it to players who showed up and stuck with their big clubs. With that said, I just cant agree with your post. I'm not rewriting anything, I'm showing unfiltered results.

 

No GM looks at his first pick of the draft, and says, I want to target a lefty specialist who inconsistently fills a role that is traditionally held by a grizzled veteran that is squeezing the last few drops out of his career. Because that's what they got for the 4th overall pick in 2008 - Matusz. No one is, or should be, expecting the O's to hit a home run with every 1st round pick. No team does that. But the O's have been horrible by comparison.  

 

I don't feel like I'm being overly critical. To prove it, I'll point out the Pirates. Since 1996, they've had 14 top 10 overall draft picks. Here are their sad results: Kris Benson, Neil Walker (#11), McCutchen (#11), Pedro Alvarez, Garrit Cole (#1)

 

I had to allow the two 11th picks, just to take mercy on them :P    


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#42 weird-O

weird-O

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 17,574 posts
  • LocationI'm here from downtown, I'm here from Mitch and Murray.

Posted 07 October 2015 - 11:40 AM

You have to really look at that group too.

Baldelli couldn't stay on the field and was a bust. Hamilton never performed for them, but was good for another team. Delmon was never 1st round good. BJ was pretty good for them, but probably overrated and has been horrible since.
So out of 6 1st rounders, you really have Price and Longoria.
Check out the Wikipedia list:
https://en.wikipedia...und_draft_picks
Not really many name players out of that group...

I also did the same for the O's, by including Hammonds. Sadly, he was too injury prone as well.

 

I didn't get too specific about how good the player(s) became (although I did say "impact player" at one point), because that can get very subjective and be an "eye of the beholder" debate. I tried to keep it at a level playing ground. Did the player(s) stay in the majors. 


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#43 veritas

veritas

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 45,244 posts

Posted 07 October 2015 - 06:22 PM

They'll throw together a patchwork team and maybe bring in some 2nd tier FA and act like he's the second coming.  You can already tell from what Duquette is saying that they won't do what's needed to keep key players here.  It'll be vintage Angelos; play cheap while lying about how you can't compete financially and abuse the fans once again.  We've seen it so many times.  You know what's coming.


Edited by veritas, 07 October 2015 - 06:22 PM.

Ne Nuntium Necare

#44 reg_indy

reg_indy

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 7,868 posts

Posted 19 October 2015 - 01:17 PM

They'll throw together a patchwork team and maybe bring in some 2nd tier FA and act like he's the second coming.  You can already tell from what Duquette is saying that they won't do what's needed to keep key players here.  It'll be vintage Angelos; play cheap while lying about how you can't compete financially and abuse the fans once again.  We've seen it so many times.  You know what's coming.

 

 

Ain't gonna fly anymore.


Terrell Suggs is doing all that he can fan the flames on the Ravens’ feud with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Underneath his uniform, the linebacker/defensive end has been wearing a black t-shirt with the letters “YBYSA” on the front and the saying, “You Bet Your Sweet *** I Hate the Steelers” on the back.

"I saw it in a store, and I was like, 'Oh, that’s nice for camp. Get our minds right,'" Suggs said

#45 aurelius

aurelius

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,706 posts

Posted 24 October 2015 - 04:54 PM

One school of thought is there's no way they spend to keep Davis and Chen because Angelos stopped using the big money approach after Albert Belle injury. And that's actually not so far off from how it should work. You can't be the NYY when you're not the NYY. You can try that for a short time but eventually you won't be able to compete for the same reason they didn't compete for so many years - the lack of player development. But now there's another angle that comes into play which is the MASN lawsuit. Certainly no business owner would pile up massive long term commitments without knowing what the future revenue streams will be. All the recent Oriole GM's have given lip service to pedestrian off-season acquisitions, and DD is no exception. The lone exception was the year they went after Teixiera which some would say was half-hearted. They wanted him but only if he would take a little off the asking price for being the home town. That was before MASN blew up on them. 



#46 Ravens2006

Ravens2006

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 16,937 posts

Posted 25 October 2015 - 09:38 AM

Well, I think after this coming off-season is complete, the Orioles will have plenty of compensation picks sandwiched up there high in the draft... so we'll see what DD does with them, and whether they pan out, in 4 or 5 years...


"Matt Wieters is sunshine, unicorns, puppy dogs and the baby Jesus all rolled into one"

#47 Ravens2006

Ravens2006

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 16,937 posts

Posted 25 October 2015 - 09:47 AM

They don't actually pursue quality free agents, not the top tier.  The only "win" they've had there since the late 90s / early 00s was Nelson Cruz... and that only happened because 1) the market stunningly just fell apart for him (thanks to the PED problem), and 2) he decided to bet on himself and take a 1 year deal to make bigger money in the long run.  It was kind of like walking by a table at the yard sale after everything's been picked over, yet nobody touched the nice TV because they were afraid it would blow up, and you take a chance on it for $5.  Only in baseball, if it works well, it'll re-sell itself to someone else for a lot more money.  :)

 

The Teixeria "pursuit" was a joke.  If you KNOW a guy is getting offers in the ballpark, for example, of 8 years / $200 million from 3 other teams... and you offer him 6 years / $120 million... while you can turn around and say "We offered him a LOT of money, more than we've ever offered anyone else before!" and technically it's true... but it's still pointless.  Like raising your hand at an auction but telling the barker that your offer is 30% less than the current high bid...


"Matt Wieters is sunshine, unicorns, puppy dogs and the baby Jesus all rolled into one"

#48 bmore_ken

bmore_ken

    Posting Champ

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 74,630 posts

Posted 26 October 2015 - 07:47 AM

You can't be the NYY when you're not the NYY.

There's an ocean in between being the NYY and signing bargain basement players as a strategy. You don't have to be the NYY to sign an impact starting pitcher and one decent OFer. That just sounds like more Angelos apologist crap


Edited by bmore_ken, 26 October 2015 - 07:49 AM.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has a nice sound to it

Suggs has signed. I've never been so happy to be wrong

Don't blame me, I voted Bob Barr:cool:

#49 Far from home

Far from home

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 16,733 posts

Posted 07 November 2015 - 03:36 PM

There's an ocean in between being the NYY and signing bargain basement players as a strategy. You don't have to be the NYY to sign an impact starting pitcher and one decent OFer. That just sounds like more Angelos apologist crap


The worst part is, if you want to run your team like a small market team, go ahead. Trade away your top players and stock up on draft picks and load up your player development, while being aggressive on the internation market.

They won't even do that right now.
Ideological gravy trains lead to poor decisions.
Learn from the last President, and make this next era one of rebuilding what has been torn down.
Instead of being loyal to your party, be loyal to your country and your people.

#50 dshawg1

dshawg1

    Let's Go O's!

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 10,633 posts

Posted 12 November 2015 - 01:09 PM

I want to know why in the world DD is talking about trading for pitchers when there is a glut on the market (and many won't cost a pick). Does he realize that we have one of the worst ranked farm systems in MLB? Comments like that give me zero faith in this organization. That and our ability to evaluate pitching and develop it.


Coed Flag Football, Basketball, Dodgeball, Softball, Kickball & More!
http://www.PlayBaltimore.com

Free Real Estate/Financial Tips:
www.FinancialHangout.com

#51 Far from home

Far from home

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 16,733 posts

Posted 12 November 2015 - 04:55 PM

I want to know why in the world DD is talking about trading for pitchers when there is a glut on the market (and many won't cost a pick). Does he realize that we have one of the worst ranked farm systems in MLB? Comments like that give me zero faith in this organization. That and our ability to evaluate pitching and develop it.


I think that part of this is slightly where he is at. If he can trade away a guy like Gonzalez or Tillman, it frees up salary for a better pitcher.
Realistically, this is one of the better FA pitching offseassons that I've seen in a while.
He could over haul 2/3rds of the starting staff for under 35 mil, if he wanted to.
If I were him, I would also look to see what kind of market there is for UJ. That's more salary relief and he is rid of a streaky pitcher.

If he can trade two of those guys, that is 20 mil that frees up for one of the better FA pitchers, like Samardzija or even Zimmermann (imo) and maybe one or two others like Kaz and Latos.
Then they go for Upton and another OF.
Ideological gravy trains lead to poor decisions.
Learn from the last President, and make this next era one of rebuilding what has been torn down.
Instead of being loyal to your party, be loyal to your country and your people.

#52 mdrunning

mdrunning

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 9,558 posts

Posted 13 November 2015 - 02:15 AM

Houston's Colby Rasmus has reportedly become the first player to accept a qualifying offer. Not exactly Curt Flood-esque, but a first is a first, I suppose.



#53 weird-O

weird-O

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 17,574 posts
  • LocationI'm here from downtown, I'm here from Mitch and Murray.

Posted 13 November 2015 - 07:29 AM

Houston's Colby Rasmus has reportedly become the first player to accept a qualifying offer. Not exactly Curt Flood-esque, but a first is a first, I suppose.

Houston gambled and lost. I guess they thought his Oct HR torrent was going to propel him to the top of the FA market. The guy had a regular year, by his standards, and they offered to double his salary. I'm certain their thinking was, he'll never accept, and we'll gain a free draft pick. Smart man, Colby.  


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#54 dshawg1

dshawg1

    Let's Go O's!

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 10,633 posts

Posted 13 November 2015 - 08:39 AM

I think that part of this is slightly where he is at. If he can trade away a guy like Gonzalez or Tillman, it frees up salary for a better pitcher.
Realistically, this is one of the better FA pitching offseassons that I've seen in a while.
He could over haul 2/3rds of the starting staff for under 35 mil, if he wanted to.
If I were him, I would also look to see what kind of market there is for UJ. That's more salary relief and he is rid of a streaky pitcher.

If he can trade two of those guys, that is 20 mil that frees up for one of the better FA pitchers, like Samardzija or even Zimmermann (imo) and maybe one or two others like Kaz and Latos.
Then they go for Upton and another OF.

Ha! No chance we get ZImmerman, none. That would be awesome, but please..no way. I do like your analysis. I think (and hope) Ubaldo is gone. I have seen enough there and I think there is still value, particularly in the AL Central, for his services.

 

Upton is a dream as well I think. I do think Samardzija is a strong possibility.

 

If the Orioles can't get someone off the day-old rack at Mars, they aren't interested.


Coed Flag Football, Basketball, Dodgeball, Softball, Kickball & More!
http://www.PlayBaltimore.com

Free Real Estate/Financial Tips:
www.FinancialHangout.com

#55 weird-O

weird-O

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 17,574 posts
  • LocationI'm here from downtown, I'm here from Mitch and Murray.

Posted 13 November 2015 - 09:23 AM

I think (and hope) Ubaldo is gone. I have seen enough there and I think there is still value, particularly in the AL Central, for his services.

I don't think he'll be moved. Even though his $13M in 2016 & $13.5 in 2017 are in line with the market, I think GMs will go with a FA option. UJ has shown who he is. There aren't any other DD's out there, who think they're getting an ace on the cheap (which is what DD thought he was getting). By choosing a comparable FA option, a team looking for a starter, won't have to part with a single prospect. I doubt any team takes on his full salary. Not because he's being overpaid, but because everyone recognizes that the O's want to move him. No other team is going to aid them, when they can dicker down the price, or move on. And the O's won't get anything more than a salary dump, if they don't eat some of his $$$. And the owner doesn't like to eat money.     


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#56 WhatintheHell

WhatintheHell

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,020 posts

Posted 13 November 2015 - 11:00 AM

As long as Ageloser is the owner he won't do crap to make this team better. I don't know why Buck Showalter sticks around for getting crappy players. Buck deserves better than this. Without Showalter this team would have finished at the bottom last season. 



#57 weird-O

weird-O

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 17,574 posts
  • LocationI'm here from downtown, I'm here from Mitch and Murray.

Posted 13 November 2015 - 11:36 AM

As long as Ageloser is the owner he won't do crap to make this team better. I don't know why Buck Showalter sticks around for getting crappy players. Buck deserves better than this. Without Showalter this team would have finished at the bottom last season. 

Buck has a great deal of influence on the development of the org., influence that goes beyond the norms of most field manager jobs. He has job security too. And he's been really successful here, especially in the context of how the O's had performed over the previous 15 years. I'm guessing these variables provide a positive work environment for him. I'm sure there are other teams that could provide an easier path to success. But there are also others that wouldn't be more difficult to succeed with. 


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#58 CROUSEMAN

CROUSEMAN

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 4,083 posts

Posted 15 November 2015 - 12:00 PM

With approx. 57 mil committed to Jones, Hardy, Jimenez and Wieters for 2016, it really looks like a bare bones off-season.  We have holes at both corner OF, need starting pitching and another bullpen arm to replace O'Day.  We would be very lucky to get Parra back.  Then I think we are looking at guys like Jim Johnsom, Haap, Fister, Jaso, Gomes and Chris Young.  I think the lesson is that we have major dollars committed to three guys who are 30 or older and in decline.  The Royals would never be in such a bind that's why the are champions and we are chumps.  They are committing dollars to their young studs while DD sits on his hands with Machado Schoop.and Britton.  Lets play the arbitration game and spin the bottle.



#59 Guest_TheJudgement_*

Guest_TheJudgement_*
  • Guests

Posted 15 November 2015 - 04:02 PM

Did we lose ODay already?

#60 CROUSEMAN

CROUSEMAN

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 4,083 posts

Posted 15 November 2015 - 06:06 PM

Did we lose ODay already?

Not officially. But he is gone. Big boys are out fishing for him while DD is wading around in the kiddy pool. DD will be more than content to cheaply fill the set up role with Brach, Givens and the soon to be signed Jim Johnson. But you know we signed our key FA Matt Wieters, so its OK.






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users