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The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?

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The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?

 

Energy information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the US government

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html 
The above report indicates that the US will be using primarily oil as our main energy source through 2030. 
The world's total declared reserves are 1,317,400,000,000 barrels (January 2007). 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves
 

World oil consumption 2005 is 80,290,000 barrels per day or 29,305,850,000 per year 
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2174rank.html
 

Dividing annual consumption into total reserves gives us 44.9 years of oil supply at the current consumption rate.
 

That was eleven (11)years ago, we are not changing your habits and this spells doom for us all. 

Do you have any suggestions--?

North Sea is running too dry to meet target 
Wednesday July 4, 2007 
http://environment.guardian.co.uk/energy/story/0,
2117952,00.html
 

The real casus belli: peak oil
 
Tuesday June 26, 2007 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2
111529,00.html
 

Science Panel Finds Fault With Estimates of Coal Supply 
Published: June 21, 2007http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/21/business/21coal.
html
 

Chevron announces that they now have 11.8 years of oil left at current production levels after aquiring Unocal reserves 
07/08/05 
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/11/business/worldbu
siness/11unocal.html?pagewanted=2&adxnnl=1&
adxnnlx=1123732924-48wR07Ekayb0gi0r7b8l9Q
 

An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise 
Published: June 12, 2004 
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/12/business/12RESE.
html?pagewanted=3&hp
 
 

"The decline of oil and gas will affect the world population more than climate change" 
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo
bal.warming/
'>http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo
bal.warming/
 

In January 2001, the U.S.
 
Department of Energy estimated the world's supply of unexploited oil reserves the world supply of oil will be totally exhausted 35 years from now (June 2003). 
http://members.aol.com/mpwright9/oil.html 

World oil and gas 'running out' 
Thursday, October 2, 2003 Posted: 1245 GMT ( 8:45 PM HKT) 
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo
bal.warming/
'>http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo
bal.warming/
 

The Oil Crunch 
Published: May 7, 2004 
The question, instead, is when the trend in oil prices will turn decisively upward. That upward turn is inevitable as a growing world economy confronts a resource in limited supply. But when will it happen? Maybe it already has. 
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/07/opinion/07KRUG.h
tml
 

Natural gas markets undergo turbulent transition as domestic production declines 
Tuesday, December 16, 2003 
http://www.statesman.com/business/content/auto/epa
per/editions/tuesday/business_f3edda2474a06071009b.
html
 

"Texas' oil resource is pretty well picked over,"http://www.statesman.com/specialreports/content/sp
ecialreports/energy/0617oil.html
 

Oman's Oil Yield Long in Decline, Shell Data Show 
Published: April 8, 2004 
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/08/business/08OIL.h
tml?hp
 

Half of Texas’s oil wells have dried up in the past 40 years and there are very few new ones. 
http://www.statesman.com/specialreports/content/sp
ecialreports/energy/0617oil.html
'>http://www.statesman.com/specialreports/content/sp
ecialreports/energy/0617oil.html
 

Tight Oil Supply Won't Ease Soon 
Published: May 16, 2004 
Two dollars for a gallon of gas? Get used to it. High fuel prices are here to stay, at least for the near future, because no relief is in sight for tight oil supplies. 
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/16/business/16OIL.h
tml?pagewanted=2&hp&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=10
84724567-pWSKI+RB9bShA5oXGRQi4w
 

The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?

 

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I'm going to buy a car and if the deal is right, will buy a hybrid...but only if the deal is right,  We are at least two generations away from the end of the fossil fuel era.

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Every kwh my roof-top solar system produces is just that much coal that needn't be mined, transported and burned.

 

It's an additive effect.

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Every kwh my roof-top solar system produces is just that much coal that needn't be mined, transported and burned.

 

It's an additive effect.

I wonder how much oil (energy) was used to make, and deliver and install those panels. Not to mention the energy used to keep you powered at night, and cloudy days, or even just running an air conditioner.

Solar is fun, but isn't the replacement for fossil fuels.

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but that's some real outdated material  there, oil dropped to $36/barrel the other day, gas here is less than $2, Norwegian oil (and others) are cutting back and laying off not due to too little oil but too much everywhere

 

I think your old articles obviously don't account for new discoveries and new drilling technology, as well as natural gas 

fossil fuels are going to be the mainstay for a long time, long after me and my kids are gone anyway, maybe a great, great, great, great grandkid might have to worry about it, but I would bet by then our technology will have come up with a solution.

Edited by Saticon3

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I wonder how much oil (energy) was used to make, and deliver and install those panels. Not to mention the energy used to keep you powered at night, and cloudy days, or even just running an air conditioner.

Solar is fun, but isn't the replacement for fossil fuels.

not too mention, solar is still energy that gets used by the planet in one way or another, if solar becomes widespread, like acres and acres of panels that's just got to have effects many which are even unknown, of that energy not going where it usually goes also less land for other uses such as agriculture.

Edited by Saticon3

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not too mention, solar is still energy that gets used by the planet in one way or another, if solar becomes widespread, like acres and acres of panels that's just got to have effects many which are even unknown, of that energy not going where it usually goes also less land for other uses such as agriculture.

?

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From the peak oil story.

The elephant in the drawing room was the fact that global oil production is likely to peak within about a decade. Aggregate oil production in the developed world has been falling since 1997, and all major forecasters expect world output excluding Opec to peak by the middle of the next decade. From then on everything depends on the cartel, but unfortunately there is growing evidence that Opec's members have been exaggerating the size of their reserves for decades.

8 years later an this is looking to be entirely wrong. Oil is under $40/barrel due, in part, to excess production.

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We aren't remotely near the end of the fossil fuel era, despite the wishful thinking of the windmill brigade.

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Frack baby Frack.

 

We saw how well that worked -- 

 

http://fortune.com/2015/09/26/frackers-could-soon-face-mass-extinction/

 

Even if all the technically recoverable "tight oil"  (frackable) was recovered -- (418 Billion barrels) -- it would last the world  ONLY 13 years ( the world uses 90 million barrels a day)

 

Coal will only last 110 years at current consumption -- Planned increases by China and rest of world drops that to about 65 years

 

Natural Gas -- 

 

Shale gas - technically recoverable  8,000 TCF

Proved NG Reserves  7,000 TCF 

 

Total Proved (economically recoverable) Plus Technically recoverable (technology exists to recover the gas regardless of cost) = 15,000 Trillion cubic feet (TCF)

World gas consumption (TCF/year) 121 and increasing at 2% per year

 

Proved Reserves will be consumed in 45 years at current rate of increase

 

Total reserves will be consumed in 71 years at current rate of increase

 

Fuel prices will skyrocket as demand exceeds capacity to supply

 

The fossil fuel shock will hit the 3rd world first

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We aren't remotely near the end of the fossil fuel era, despite the wishful thinking of the windmill brigade.

 

Please find numbers to the contrary

 

The coal numbers are from the coal industry

 

The oil and gas are from the EIA

 

Even if all the technically recoverable "tight oil"  (frackable) was recovered -- (418 Billion barrels) -- it would last the world  ONLY 13 years ( the world uses 90 million barrels a day)

 

Coal will only last 110 years at current consumption -- Planned increases by China and rest of world drops that to about 65 years

 

These numbers for coal assume that major coal to gas efforts DO NOT materialize

 

Natural Gas -- 

 

Shale gas - technically recoverable  8,000 TCF

Proved NG Reserves  7,000 TCF 

 

Total Proved (economically recoverable) Plus Technically recoverable (technology exists to recover the gas regardless of cost) = 15,000 Trillion cubic feet (TCF)

World gas consumption (TCF/year) 121 and increasing at 2% per year

 

Proved Reserves will be consumed in 45 years at current rate of increase

 

Total reserves will be consumed in 71 years at current rate of increase

 

Fuel prices will skyrocket as demand exceeds capacity to supply

 

The fossil fuel shock will hit the 3rd world first

Edited by karlydee

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Hydrogen is still several steps away from being an alternative. Lots of details the least of which would be the delivery infrastructure. Electric, well you still have to generate it at the source for charging and that is still mostly Coal & Oil. Nuclear is Good but there are still too many fears about it. Yeah Fukushima had problems but what do you expect from such a natural disaster. You just can't plan against Everything. You would think the Japs would plan well for Earthquakes & Tsunamis better knowing their environment but looks like they didn't plan for the Worst case scenario. Who can? Electricity will be the best only after controlled Fusion is achieved. By some accounts that may only be 10-20 years down the road. Know I won't see any difference from now in what's left my lifetime.

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I thought this thread was going to be about the 'historic' non-binding climate agreement signed yesterday in Paris that Obama was twitterbating about. :D

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Please find numbers to the contrary

 

The coal numbers are from the coal industry

 

The oil and gas are from the EIA

 

Even if all the technically recoverable "tight oil"  (frackable) was recovered -- (418 Billion barrels) -- it would last the world  ONLY 13 years ( the world uses 90 million barrels a day)

 

Coal will only last 110 years at current consumption -- Planned increases by China and rest of world drops that to about 65 years

 

These numbers for coal assume that major coal to gas efforts DO NOT materialize

 

Natural Gas -- 

 

Shale gas - technically recoverable  8,000 TCF

Proved NG Reserves  7,000 TCF 

 

Total Proved (economically recoverable) Plus Technically recoverable (technology exists to recover the gas regardless of cost) = 15,000 Trillion cubic feet (TCF)

World gas consumption (TCF/year) 121 and increasing at 2% per year

 

Proved Reserves will be consumed in 45 years at current rate of increase

 

Total reserves will be consumed in 71 years at current rate of increase

 

Fuel prices will skyrocket as demand exceeds capacity to supply

 

The fossil fuel shock will hit the 3rd world first

http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2015/06/25/how-much-oil-does-the-world-have-left/

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White House gives wind farms 30-year pass on eagle deaths

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-gives-wind-farms-pass-on-killing-eagles/

 

"The change, requested by the wind energy industry, will provide legal protection for the lifespan of wind farms and other projects for which companies obtain a permit and make efforts to avoid killing the birds.

 

An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year documented the illegal killing of eagles around wind farms, the Obama administration's reluctance to prosecute such cases and its willingness to help keep the scope of the eagle deaths secret. The White House has championed wind power, a pollution-free energy intended to ease global warming, as a cornerstone of President Barack Obama's energy plan.

 
In other areas, too, such as the government's support for corn-based ethanol to reduce U.S. dependence on gasoline, the White House has allowed the green industry to do not-so-green things. Another AP investigation recently showed that ethanol has proven far more damaging to the environment than politicians promised and much worse than the government admits today."
 
((From many InterWebs places))
 
A guy is standing before a judge, charged with illegally hunting a condor.

 

Judge: " What you did was despicable, killing a protected endangered species! What do you have to say for yourself?"

 

Defendant: "I'm sorry, your Honor. I am homeless, jobless, and penniless. I was just trying to provide food for my family."
 
Judge: "Those harsh circumstances tempt me to be more lenient with you. I must ask, how did it taste?"

 

Defendant: "Tastes a lot like Bald Eagle, your Honor."

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White House gives wind farms 30-year pass on eagle deaths

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-gives-wind-farms-pass-on-killing-eagles/

 

"The change, requested by the wind energy industry, will provide legal protection for the lifespan of wind farms and other projects for which companies obtain a permit and make efforts to avoid killing the birds.

 

An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year documented the illegal killing of eagles around wind farms, the Obama administration's reluctance to prosecute such cases and its willingness to help keep the scope of the eagle deaths secret. The White House has championed wind power, a pollution-free energy intended to ease global warming, as a cornerstone of President Barack Obama's energy plan.

 
In other areas, too, such as the government's support for corn-based ethanol to reduce U.S. dependence on gasoline, the White House has allowed the green industry to do not-so-green things. Another AP investigation recently showed that ethanol has proven far more damaging to the environment than politicians promised and much worse than the government admits today."
 
((From many InterWebs places))
 
A guy is standing before a judge, charged with illegally hunting a condor.

 

Judge: " What you did was despicable, killing a protected endangered species! What do you have to say for yourself?"

 

Defendant: "I'm sorry, your Honor. I am homeless, jobless, and penniless. I was just trying to provide food for my family."
 
Judge: "Those harsh circumstances tempt me to be more lenient with you. I must ask, how did it taste?"

 

Defendant: "Tastes a lot like Bald Eagle, your Honor."

 

Hey, they have no problem with people dying in the pursuit of their agenda.  Why would they care about birds?

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I wonder how much oil (energy) was used to make, and deliver and install those panels. Not to mention the energy used to keep you powered at night, and cloudy days, or even just running an air conditioner.

Solar is fun, but isn't the replacement for fossil fuels.

 

 

 

What???

 

Why not?

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From the peak oil story.

 

8 years later an this is looking to be entirely wrong. Oil is under $40/barrel due, in part, to excess production.

 

That does not mean Peak Oil has not been reached.  Or won't be reached very soon.  The Peak can also be a long standing plateau, varying up and down slightly for years or decades until falling.

 

In fact, more Total Oil production can occur post-Peak than pre-Peak

 

The majority of countries in the world have already hit peak oil, very few are increasing or maintaining production

 

Even with all the shale oil -- the US still produced more oil in nov/dec 1970 ( which hubbert predicted as the peak for US oil) than currently

Edited by karlydee

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Nothing in that article contradicts peak oil --

 

The "Shale Revolution" is OVER

 

EIA: US shale oil output to drop 93,000 b/d in November

 

Crude oil production in November from seven major US shale plays is expected to drop 93,000 b/d to 5.12 million b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). That’s back up to the same level forecast for September after a somewhat smaller decline was projected for October (OGJ Online, Sept. 14, 2015).

The DPR focuses on the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobrara, Permian, and Utica, which altogether accounted for 95% of US oil production increases and all US natural gas production increases during 2011-13.

Continuing a trend that has persisted since the overall declines began in spring, the Eagle Ford is expected to make up a bulk of the drop, losing 71,000 b/d to 1.37 million b/d. The Bakken is projected to fall 23,000 b/d to 1.16 million b/d and theNiobrara is projected to fall 20,000 b/d to 372,000 b/d.

 

 

Notably the wars in the ME, and the world economic slowdown have shifted the peak slightly to the right.

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