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#1 CROUSEMAN

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Posted 06 February 2017 - 11:38 AM

Saw a couple comments from AJ about the need for an upgrade on OF defense and that he would hit lead-off again if he had too.  There wasn't any sharp criticism here, but it does beg the question on why there were no real upgrades in theses areas.  I guess there are still some bent and denters out there that could still help.  Smith will be an upgrade in RF, but that bar was really low.



#2 weird-O

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Posted 06 February 2017 - 01:34 PM

Maybe Rickard will prove to be a good enough bat to stay in the line up. There hasn't been much talk about him, this winter. 


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#3 CROUSEMAN

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Posted 06 February 2017 - 03:36 PM

Maybe Rickard will prove to be a good enough bat to stay in the line up. There hasn't been much talk about him, this winter. 

 

Yeah I hope so.  I like him, but he really fell off after league adjusted.  And he hasn't played since last June.  A lot of question marks.  I saw a couple places where DD is really talking up the two rule 5 guys as help on the corners.  So expect to see one of them in the mix. 

 

One thing about DD when he makes a public comment about upgrading an area, it usually doesn't happen.  Get a TOR starter, nope.  Upgrade OF defense, nope.  Get a lead-off hitter with OBP skills, nope.



#4 weird-O

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Posted 06 February 2017 - 03:39 PM

Yeah I hope so.  I like him, but he really fell off after league adjusted.  And he hasn't played since last June.  A lot of question marks.  I saw a couple places where DD is really talking up the two rule 5 guys as help on the corners.  So expect to see one of them in the mix. 

 

One thing about DD when he makes a public comment about upgrading an area, it usually doesn't happen.  Get a TOR starter, nope.  Upgrade OF defense, nope.  Get a lead-off hitter with OBP skills, nope.

Ha! it's almost like, when DD talks about a need, that means he won't address it. You just cracked the code of his GM speak.  :lol:


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#5 Pickle20

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Posted 08 February 2017 - 09:19 AM

Jones is right, he shouldn't be batting leadoff. Kim is the best lead off hitter on the team. But Duquette's failure to upgrade the OBP (and the OF defense) this offseason is another mark on his weak track record as a GM.


Edited by Pickle20, 08 February 2017 - 09:19 AM.


#6 weird-O

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Posted 08 February 2017 - 10:07 AM

If you look at the OBP for the 8 starting players & DH, Kim is outstanding, Smith is very good, Davis and Manny are a little above the league avg,  AJ & Castillo are ~ at avg. Then you have Schoop, Hardy & Trumbo who are all pretty terrible at getting on base.

 

Davis can be very good at getting on base. He seems to ping-pong every other year. When you break down the individuals, it doesn't look that bad. But the 3 sub par guys really negate the impact of the two guys who are good at getting on base. So the team hovers a couple ticks under league avg.    

 

This is where walking away from Trumbo would have been a good idea. NY just signed Chris Carter to a 1 yr $3M deal. In many ways, he and Trumbo are the same hitter. All power, and nothing else. Carter K'd 35 more times, and still managed a better OBP. Trumbo gave the O's 14 more RBI than Carter gave Milwaukee. And that can be easily explained away. So the only real difference between the two, is that NY spent $3M, and Baltimore spent $36M. Trumbo is better, but he's not $9M more a year better.    


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#7 Pickle20

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Posted 08 February 2017 - 10:44 AM

I would have taken Carter and the money saved over Trumbo, too.



#8 bawlmer_fan

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Posted 08 February 2017 - 01:51 PM

Yeah I hope so.  I like him, but he really fell off after league adjusted.  And he hasn't played since last June.  A lot of question marks.  I saw a couple places where DD is really talking up the two rule 5 guys as help on the corners.  So expect to see one of them in the mix. 

 

One thing about DD when he makes a public comment about upgrading an area, it usually doesn't happen.  Get a TOR starter, nope.  Upgrade OF defense, nope.  Get a lead-off hitter with OBP skills, nope.

"I really like Ariel Miranda."
Trades him for Wade Miley.



#9 CROUSEMAN

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Posted 08 February 2017 - 06:34 PM

"I really like Ariel Miranda."
Trades him for Wade Miley.

 

That's one can of worms I haven't had the stomach yet to open this off season.



#10 EnochRoot

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Posted 08 February 2017 - 09:21 PM

I would have taken Carter and the money saved over Trumbo, too.

 

 

This, to me was a no-brainer. 



#11 weird-O

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 08:03 AM

This, to me was a no-brainer. 

Absolutely.

 

Everyone praised DD for waiting out Trumbo, and getting a great deal. Clearly is wasn't a great deal at all. It only looks that way, if you compare it to the amount of money he reportedly thought he would get. They severely overpaid for him. Pedro Alvarez gave the O's the same production as Trumbo, at a fraction of the cost. 

 

Somehow the O's went from being a team that never spends, to a team that spends stupidly. 


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#12 CROUSEMAN

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 09:21 AM

Absolutely.

 

Everyone praised DD for waiting out Trumbo, and getting a great deal. Clearly is wasn't a great deal at all. It only looks that way, if you compare it to the amount of money he reportedly thought he would get. They severely overpaid for him. Pedro Alvarez gave the O's the same production as Trumbo, at a fraction of the cost. 

 

Somehow the O's went from being a team that never spends, to a team that spends stupidly. 

 

You make a good point on the Trumbo vs Carter/Alvarez comparison.  At this point, I'm still in the Trumbo camp because I don't have a lot of confidence Petey/DD would of spent the saved 9 mil elsewhere.  If they would of signed Carter, plus either Boone Logan/Travis Wood and either Bourn/Revere,  I could of gotten behind that.  Plus those would of been short term deals. It will be interesting to see the 2017 production from these three.  I'm still expecting a big year from Trumbo and not much from the other two = Carter/Alvarez..

To your other point, I do agree the O's seem to have overpaid on some contracts the last few years.  Again this is some hindsight, but Davis, Hardy and O'Day all seem to be over pays. I'm still not sure Trumbo was an over pay,  though the market has rea;lly nose dived for that type of player.


Edited by CROUSEMAN, 09 February 2017 - 09:22 AM.


#13 weird-O

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 10:53 AM

You make a good point on the Trumbo vs Carter/Alvarez comparison.  At this point, I'm still in the Trumbo camp because I don't have a lot of confidence Petey/DD would of spent the saved 9 mil elsewhere.  If they would of signed Carter, plus either Boone Logan/Travis Wood and either Bourn/Revere,  I could of gotten behind that.  Plus those would of been short term deals. It will be interesting to see the 2017 production from these three.  I'm still expecting a big year from Trumbo and not much from the other two = Carter/Alvarez..

To your other point, I do agree the O's seem to have overpaid on some contracts the last few years.  Again this is some hindsight, but Davis, Hardy and O'Day all seem to be over pays. I'm still not sure Trumbo was an over pay,  though the market has rea;lly nose dived for that type of player.

Davis was another situation that was approached terribly.

 

1) They sat around waiting for him, instead of moving on when the market provided options.  

2) He had no other suitors

3) Then they hit desperation mode and started bidding against themselves.

 

I liked the Hardy & O'Day deals. The O's had no SS options, and the FA market wasn't going to offer a good replacement. They could have moved Manny over, but that just opens another hole. And the FA market was equally thin at 3B. O'Day just had an injury filled season. It's unfortunate, but that's the cost of doing business. I maintain the opinion, if a team won't pay for top shelf starters, you better have a rock solid BP.    


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#14 CROUSEMAN

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Posted 10 February 2017 - 09:47 AM

If you look at the OBP for the 8 starting players & DH, Kim is outstanding, Smith is very good, Davis and Manny are a little above the league avg,  AJ & Castillo are ~ at avg. Then you have Schoop, Hardy & Trumbo who are all pretty terrible at getting on base.

 

Davis can be very good at getting on base. He seems to ping-pong every other year. When you break down the individuals, it doesn't look that bad. But the 3 sub par guys really negate the impact of the two guys who are good at getting on base. So the team hovers a couple ticks under league avg.    

 

This is where walking away from Trumbo would have been a good idea. NY just signed Chris Carter to a 1 yr $3M deal. In many ways, he and Trumbo are the same hitter. All power, and nothing else. Carter K'd 35 more times, and still managed a better OBP. Trumbo gave the O's 14 more RBI than Carter gave Milwaukee. And that can be easily explained away. So the only real difference between the two, is that NY spent $3M, and Baltimore spent $36M. Trumbo is better, but he's not $9M more a year better.    

 

I think AJ has regressed to being below average in OBP skills.  He has averaged .310 the last three years.  I'm assuming around .320 is average.  And to cut Trumbo a break he was at .316 last year  which was better than Shoop, hardy, AJ, Wieters and Reimold.  Granted that number was high for Trumbo career -wise,  but I'm hoping his plate discipline might have improved overall.  But to your point, the bar on improving OBP is so low, Castillo and Smith will definitely help.

Also, when you see that Carter struck out 35 more than Trumbs and Davis struck out 53 more times than Trumbs,  those are mind numbing numbers.  Davis has to get his OBP back to .350 and his Ks in the 190s.  Or he will be just a black hole dragging this offense down into the abyss.



#15 CROUSEMAN

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Posted 11 February 2017 - 09:28 AM

Davis was another situation that was approached terribly.

 

1) They sat around waiting for him, instead of moving on when the market provided options.  

2) He had no other suitors

3) Then they hit desperation mode and started bidding against themselves.

 

I liked the Hardy & O'Day deals. The O's had no SS options, and the FA market wasn't going to offer a good replacement. They could have moved Manny over, but that just opens another hole. And the FA market was equally thin at 3B. O'Day just had an injury filled season. It's unfortunate, but that's the cost of doing business. I maintain the opinion, if a team won't pay for top shelf starters, you better have a rock solid BP.    

 

I can buy the O'Day deal for sure.  Especially at the price top set up guys are getting today.  But history will judge this deal down the road.  The risk was there with his age.

I get the Hardy argument, but we'll have to disagree on that one.  Its an interesting debate on whether an overpay is judged on what the market seemed like at the time of the signing or what history actually told us.  Hardy seemed like a market value signing at the time, but there were risks with his health and declining production due to age.  I like to go with actual results and history has shown hardy was a severe over pay.

I know it's hindsight , but history doesn't lie and tells the actual story.



#16 pitbull

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Posted 11 February 2017 - 09:57 AM

Same story, different offseason.

No leadoff hitter (even though this is a "priority") every offseason).

The rotation is still garbage.

The outfield is a mess.

So on, so forth.

#17 weird-O

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Posted 13 February 2017 - 07:36 AM

I can buy the O'Day deal for sure.  Especially at the price top set up guys are getting today.  But history will judge this deal down the road.  The risk was there with his age.

I get the Hardy argument, but we'll have to disagree on that one.  Its an interesting debate on whether an overpay is judged on what the market seemed like at the time of the signing or what history actually told us.  Hardy seemed like a market value signing at the time, but there were risks with his health and declining production due to age.  I like to go with actual results and history has shown hardy was a severe over pay.

I know it's hindsight , but history doesn't lie and tells the actual story.

I'm not sure what declining production you're referring to. He was extended just before the 2014 post season started. He had 3 consecutive GG seasons and hit 30 - 22 - 25 HRs. He was easily the best defensive SS in the AL, and had power. At the time of his extension, he was 31, still in the prime years of a player's career. It was a 3 year deal, which means he would just be passed his prime years when the contract ends. So even if he lost a step or two, he would still be an above avg defensive SS. And he still is. Yes, ultimately a deal is viewed by the end results. But no one has a crystal ball. 


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

#18 Pickle20

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Posted 13 February 2017 - 10:35 AM

Same story, different offseason.

No leadoff hitter (even though this is a "priority") every offseason).

The rotation is still garbage.

The outfield is a mess.

So on, so forth.

Rotation isn't garbage.



#19 russsnyder

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Posted 14 February 2017 - 05:42 AM

Rotation isn't garbage.

 

  Agreed, Tillman, Bundy, & Gausman are all good MLB starters.

 

  Ubaldo and Miley were not very good last year. 

 

  I would say that the Orioles are in a similar situation as a lot of MLB teams. ( A few good starters, then a drop off.)



#20 CROUSEMAN

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Posted 14 February 2017 - 06:42 AM

I'm not sure what declining production you're referring to. He was extended just before the 2014 post season started. He had 3 consecutive GG seasons and hit 30 - 22 - 25 HRs. He was easily the best defensive SS in the AL, and had power. At the time of his extension, he was 31, still in the prime years of a player's career. It was a 3 year deal, which means he would just be passed his prime years when the contract ends. So even if he lost a step or two, he would still be an above avg defensive SS. And he still is. Yes, ultimately a deal is viewed by the end results. But no one has a crystal ball. 

 

In 2014.  Hardy declined to 9 HRs and 52 RBIs.  I think that was he year he was battling back problems.  The cracks were starting to show.  In all fairness, his injuries the last 2 years were more accidents then anything.  Bad luck.  Overall I agree with your premise.  The deal was probably best for the team at the time, even if it has turned out to be an overpay.  If we can get out after 3 years and he has a good year in 2017, it will help even out this deal.






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