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pitbull

Is it time for Big Dan to blow it up & rebuild?

90 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

23 minutes ago, mdrunning said:

Yes, all of us predicted that the No. 1 starter would be sporting an ERA of 8.00, the No. 2 starter wouldn't be any better, both the closer and best set-up man would be out, and the team's best player would be hitting some 70 points below his career average. Yes, we all saw that coming.

 

?????

Are you being s smart-alleck or do you really not read what the majority of people on here have to say? 

Or maybe you ignore it?

Edited by pitbull

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, pitbull said:

?????

Are you being s smart-alleck or do you really not read what the majority of people on here have to say? 

Or maybe you ignore it?

Considering that only a few dozen people post on here on a regular basis, this majority of which you speak hardly represents a ringing endorsement. Besides, when did consensus and fact become synonymous?

Whatever the majority was clamoring for, it still doesn't explain or vindicate what's happened over this past month. What the majority (I assume) failed to realize is that essentially the same offense from a year ago is struggling mightily: Jones, Davis, Trumbo and Manny all have OBP's under .800. Also, the homers aren't flying out of the park the way they did a year ago (well, they were for the Yankees). That might help explain the Orioles recent 10-21 skid. It also might shed some light on the fact that of those 10 wins, seven were by one or two runs. Of the 21 losses, 10 of those were by one or two runs as well. The overall margin of victory, however, was just two runs, while the average margin of defeat (no doubt inflated by the Massacre in New York) was 3.52. Not what you'd expect from a team that relies on much of its offense via the longball. Last year the Orioles led the majors in homeruns while finishing 12th in runs scored. This year? Tenth and 21st, respectively. 

Last year's team could cover its largest weakness--starting pitching--with homeruns and a rock-solid bullpen. Again, who would have thought Tillman and Gausman would be getting hit this badly at this point in the season? If they had just performed up to their track records thus far, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation (whatever it is).

Before we get into the lead-off hitter, OBP guy schtick again, I have two words: Camden.Yards. It does not reward speed/OBP guys the way it does players who can hit the long ball. According to Fangraphs (assuming they're accurate) Camden Yards is the second-easiest park for a lefty to hit homers and sixth for a rightie. It's also the sixth hardest to hit a triple and eighth-hardest to hit a double, which discourages speed. Just as Kansas City plays to its ballpark, which rewards singles and doubles, so do the Orioles with homerun hitters. Considering that they play half their games there, it sort of makes sense. 

(It's kind of interesting to note that Nellie, despite having a great year here, has actually posted a higher OBP each of this three years in Seattle than he did in Baltimore. We also brought in a decent OBP guy in Seth Smith, who, albeit in a platoon role, is posting the lowest OBP he's had six years. The Camden effect.)

Stats aside, the most important decision this organization needs to make right now is whether or not the "all-in" mindset of the past five years is really worth the risk of trading away what prospects they have? They need starters, but what needs to be determined is at what price and how much is too much to sell? Those are the types of decisions which will effect the franchise not only this year, but into the future as well. Unless Tillman and Gausman come around, O'Day and Britton come back hale and hardy, and the offense starts cranking it up, it isn't going to matter very much, is it?

No one could have possibly foreseen all that's happened, which again, doesn't make Duquette or anyone else in the front office blameless. Injuries hurt any team, but should they start to collapse it, then Duquette should be held accountable should he try and stop the bleeding with a Band-Aid. 

Edited by mdrunning

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I think that the Yankee series clearly showed that this is a flawed team.

However, despite the debacle of a series which left them seven games behind the first place Yankees, they are only one game behind Cleveland for the second wild card spot and

two games behind the Red Sox whom hold the first spot. Clearly, the Orioles need to address some of their issues ( pitching), but I do not see a major sell off right now. Besides, it

would benefit them IMO if they waited to see how the team does with Machado in the lineup. He is the team's best player and perhaps more importantly their best trade chip. If 

the team continues to tank around the All Star break I would look to actively trade Machado, Castillo, Smith, KIm, and Jones. If the team bounces back and plays well, I would 

look to move Machado to put some prospects in place for the future. Further, this deal would also have to include a major league ready replacement for Machado. I don't see the 

Orioles shelling out hundreds of millions of dollars for Machado and I do not believe that He is a guy that should be the centerpiece of a rebuild. I hope that Machado gets healthy 

and puts up some numbers to boost his trade value. My inclination is to take advantage of that sooner than later to maximize the return.

 

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If I was placing odds on the possibility of a fire sale/rebuild, I'd put it at about a 2% chance. 

Let's start at the top. The majority owner doesn't do fire sales. Not after the results of 2000, which is the year of the last fire sale. Winning has taken much of the heat off of Pete. But one thing remains as true today, as it was during the 14 years of losing. Pete doesn't care about winning, he cares about profits. If the team can make money and win, great. But making money is priority #1. A fire sale will kill attendance. Given the low attendance figures so far, you can probably expect weekday games with 3K people in the stands. So, no, there won't be a fire sale. Manny is more valuable to Pete, than a collection of top shelf prospects that no one knows about yet. 

Dan has one more year on his contract. There's no way he's going to commence a rebuild. 

As much as I hate to think about it, Buck may be too old to have an interest in starting over again.

Besides, DD and Buck are the architects of this team. Do you really want to see either of them take on a rebuild? I wouldn't. What would be the point. This is the team they chose to create. They aren't going to suddenly have an epiphany and go for a speedy, high OBP team. Trumbo would be replace with another Trumbo, etc, etc. 

Find whatever enjoyment you can, in this team. Because it ain't going anywhere. And a very similar version will be here next season. After that, many of the current roster will be gone, along with the GM, and possibly the manager. Then you'll get your rebuild, the long, slow, 10 year type of rebuild. The kind of rebuild that will see Ryan Mountcastle come and go, without ever playing for a winning O's team. 

 

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There's not going to be any kind of firesale.

Manny will leave as a FA. Britton likely will too.

The O's will never blow it up, especially if they still have a shot to make the postseason. The second WC game gives teams a false sense of hope.

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They will probably patch and hope, which will make the eventual rebuild take even longer.

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23 minutes ago, Mr. Buzzcut said:

They will probably patch and hope, which will make the eventual rebuild take even longer.

They did this for 14 years from 1998-2011.

I have every reason to believe they'll do that again.

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They won't do what actually needs to be done until they remove Duquette and fire Buck, which could take years.

However, a savvy team would get that train rolling now.

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Posted (edited)

10 hours ago, mdrunning said:

Considering that only a few dozen people post on here on a regular basis, this majority of which you speak hardly represents a ringing endorsement. Besides, when did consensus and fact become synonymous?

Whatever the majority was clamoring for, it still doesn't explain or vindicate what's happened over this past month. What the majority (I assume) failed to realize is that essentially the same offense from a year ago is struggling mightily: Jones, Davis, Trumbo and Manny all have OBP's under .800. Also, the homers aren't flying out of the park the way they did a year ago (well, they were for the Yankees). That might help explain the Orioles recent 10-21 skid. It also might shed some light on the fact that of those 10 wins, seven were by one or two runs. Of the 21 losses, 10 of those were by one or two runs as well. The overall margin of victory, however, was just two runs, while the average margin of defeat (no doubt inflated by the Massacre in New York) was 3.52. Not what you'd expect from a team that relies on much of its offense via the longball. Last year the Orioles led the majors in homeruns while finishing 12th in runs scored. This year? Tenth and 21st, respectively. 

Last year's team could cover its largest weakness--starting pitching--with homeruns and a rock-solid bullpen. Again, who would have thought Tillman and Gausman would be getting hit this badly at this point in the season? If they had just performed up to their track records thus far, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation (whatever it is).

Before we get into the lead-off hitter, OBP guy schtick again, I have two words: Camden.Yards. It does not reward speed/OBP guys the way it does players who can hit the long ball. According to Fangraphs (assuming they're accurate) Camden Yards is the second-easiest park for a lefty to hit homers and sixth for a rightie. It's also the sixth hardest to hit a triple and eighth-hardest to hit a double, which discourages speed. Just as Kansas City plays to its ballpark, which rewards singles and doubles, so do the Orioles with homerun hitters. Considering that they play half their games there, it sort of makes sense. 

(It's kind of interesting to note that Nellie, despite having a great year here, has actually posted a higher OBP each of this three years in Seattle than he did in Baltimore. We also brought in a decent OBP guy in Seth Smith, who, albeit in a platoon role, is posting the lowest OBP he's had six years. The Camden effect). 

Why then do other teams that play in small parks have no problem with OBP, like Cincinnati for example?

Edited by Slidemaster

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I've said this before, but it's worth repeating. Andy McPhail was never going to win here. His game plan was to lose and lose and lose, while collecting top 10 draft picks. And he only had 50 - 50 results. In his 4 years as the GM overseeing the draft (he was hired 3 weeks after the 2008 draft), he picked Matusz, Hobgood, Machado and Bundy. The totality of his draft choices only landed these players: Mychal Givens, Zach Davies. That's it, in 4 years of drafting, he managed to pick 4 players that made any sort of impact at the MLB level. That's one super star, one "could be" top of the rotation pitcher, a worthy relief pitcher and a guy who looks like he'll be a solid back of the rotation pitcher. The Red Sox drafted more impact players in 2011 alone, than AM did in his entire time with the O's.

DD drafted Gausman, and while he looks like he doesn't belong on a pitchers mound, if he was to be DFA'd today, he will have contributed more than all but 2 AM picks (Manny and Bundy). DD also drafted Mancini. If just two of his other picks are able to serve a purpose with the O's, he will have outclassed AM in drafting.  All while only having 1 top 10 pick, to AM's 4 in 4 years. And that's with the draft picks he gave away. 

Including his trade acquisitions: Tilly, AJ, Hardy Davis and O'day, AM has added more impact players. But he wasn't ever going to push a "win now" agenda. So I guess that's why I'm not as critical of DD. Even though they aren't likely to win it all under DD leadership, at least they compete. Draft picks are nice, but when your GM doesn't know how to maximize the draft opportunities, settling for competitive baseball, even if it's short lived, is an acceptable alternative for me.   

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6 hours ago, Pickle20 said:

The second WC game gives teams a false sense of hope.

True. If you lose in the Wild Card game I don't really even consider that making the playoffs.

And it's a problem that the 2016 Orioles are looked at by many as a success for 'making the playoffs' which creates a false sense that things are moving in the right direction.  Which they clearly weren't last season and aren't now.  What a joke 

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You have to give up something to get something and have something people want. Right now the O's have only 2 players that could bring a boat load of players: Manny and Schoop, and I wouldn't trade eithetr. Maybe if they are out of it by late July they could move most of the GIGO pitching staff, Hardy,Trumbo. Davis's contract is too big to move. You have to root for contending teams to start to have big injuries. 

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10 hours ago, Pickle20 said:

There's not going to be any kind of firesale.

Manny will leave as a FA. Britton likely will too.

The O's will never blow it up, especially if they still have a shot to make the postseason. The second WC game gives teams a false sense of hope.

We agree a lot. Spot on.

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5 hours ago, BayAreaBmore said:

True. If you lose in the Wild Card game I don't really even consider that making the playoffs.

I agree. It's a joke 

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11 hours ago, Slidemaster said:

Why then do other teams that play in small parks have no problem with OBP, like Cincinnati for example?

That's a good question, and I quite frankly didn't have a ready answer.

My immediate guess is that, unlike the AL, teams like Cincinnati can't bring in more one-dimensional types of sluggers due to the lack of a DH. 

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Posted (edited)

4 hours ago, johnpolitics said:

You have to give up something to get something and have something people want. Right now the O's have only 2 players that could bring a boat load of players: Manny and Schoop, and I wouldn't trade eithetr. Maybe if they are out of it by late July they could move most of the GIGO pitching staff, Hardy,Trumbo. Davis's contract is too big to move. You have to root for contending teams to start to have big injuries. 

I'd trade Manny if this team is dropping like a stone by mid-July. It's not going to happen, but it's something that should be considered.

As for the rest:

Davis - As you stated, too many years and too many dollars left on that contract.

Trumbo - If he were in the last year of his contract, then I'd say yes, but not with two years to go. He already can block a trade to seven teams (which ones, I don't know), and the fact that he's under contract for two more seasons takes the National League out of the equation. They're not going to take two years of a primary DH later for an extra bat now. Even in the AL, the market is very limited, if any exists at all, and particularly with his power numbers down. Other teams are probably thinking that last year was something of an aberration.

Hardy - As someone else mentioned, his option for next year automatically vests if he's traded. Pass.

Tillman - Not only is he getting bombed, but you have to wonder if something isn't still wrong with that shoulder. Other teams will wonder the same thing.

Gausman - Still young enough and throws hard enough for someone to think he has upside, but it would be such a low sell it would practically be a giveaway.

O'Day - Two years to go on that contract and recurring shoulder problems. Ain't happening.

Brach - Pitching well and while he wasn't Britton in the closer role, he wasn't awful. Appears to be back on track and since he's under team control for another year, there could be considerable interest since he wouldn't be a two-month rental. (Washington immediately comes to mind.)

Miley - Before tonight, I thought maybe that 3.27 ERA (which got inflated against the Sox) would entice some teams. It still could, but I see a very limited market for him. Teams in hitter-friendly parks aren't likely to bite on a guy who allows too many baserunners and doesn't have electric stuff to begin with. Giving up two-run homers to catchers (on a 2-0 pitch, no less) with a .190/.207/.270 career batting line isn't going to have teams falling over themselves to get him.

Seth Smith - Another good game tonight, and I think he could be attractive to someone looking to add another bat. But he's strictly a platoon guy, so the return would probably be a couple of low-level prospects at best.

Kim - I don't know how badly Davis is hurt (I heard it may be an oblique), but if he's out for any length of time, at least there could be an opportunity to showcase Kim a bit with Mancini moving to first. The guy can hit when he gets regular playing time and could bring back something for a team looking to add a bat. A very team-friendly salary makes him at least worth a look.

Ubaldo - Only for the eternally masochistic.

Just not a whole lot of possibilities. That's why I've advocated staying the course for now and see what happens over the next month because there simply isn't much of value to trade right now. Like you said, it would help if some contenders had some serious injuries.

Edited by mdrunning

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12 hours ago, weird-O said:

I've said this before, but it's worth repeating. Andy McPhail was never going to win here. His game plan was to lose and lose and lose, while collecting top 10 draft picks. And he only had 50 - 50 results. In his 4 years as the GM overseeing the draft (he was hired 3 weeks after the 2008 draft), he picked Matusz, Hobgood, Machado and Bundy. The totality of his draft choices only landed these players: Mychal Givens, Zach Davies. That's it, in 4 years of drafting, he managed to pick 4 players that made any sort of impact at the MLB level. That's one super star, one "could be" top of the rotation pitcher, a worthy relief pitcher and a guy who looks like he'll be a solid back of the rotation pitcher. The Red Sox drafted more impact players in 2011 alone, than AM did in his entire time with the O's.

DD drafted Gausman, and while he looks like he doesn't belong on a pitchers mound, if he was to be DFA'd today, he will have contributed more than all but 2 AM picks (Manny and Bundy). DD also drafted Mancini. If just two of his other picks are able to serve a purpose with the O's, he will have outclassed AM in drafting.  All while only having 1 top 10 pick, to AM's 4 in 4 years. And that's with the draft picks he gave away. 

Including his trade acquisitions: Tilly, AJ, Hardy Davis and O'day, AM has added more impact players. But he wasn't ever going to push a "win now" agenda. So I guess that's why I'm not as critical of DD. Even though they aren't likely to win it all under DD leadership, at least they compete. Draft picks are nice, but when your GM doesn't know how to maximize the draft opportunities, settling for competitive baseball, even if it's short lived, is an acceptable alternative for me.   

Good post.

I think part of what MacPhail was doing was the old "Scoop up enough rocks and you'll find a few gems" approach. When he was still with Minnesota, MacPhail once noted that if the farm system could produce two decent prospects per year, it was doing its job. That helps illustrate how inexact a science player development really is. In the case of the Orioles, as you noted, he only achieved half of the stated goal.

Duquette was brought here for two primary purposes: Win now and do it within a budget. Even in Boston, he demonstrated a knack for finding low-cost talent and having it perform past expectations--Tim Wakefield immediately comes to mind. In Boston, winning at a lower cost freed up the resources to land premium talents like Pedro Martinez and Manny Ramirez. In Baltimore, well, it did persuade Angelos to loosen the purse strings somewhat, although it's debatable whether or not that money was spent wisely. 

 

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14 hours ago, Slidemaster said:

They won't do what actually needs to be done until they remove Duquette and fire Buck, which could take years.

However, a savvy team would get that train rolling now.

I'm 80 percent with you. This level of play for this investment is unacceptable. I wish we had a different owner but we don't. Heads should roll. 

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On 6/11/2017 at 5:53 PM, Slidemaster said:

I've said for years that when the core MacPhail assembled and that DD inherited begins to falter, the team will sink like a stone.

 

It's happening, and DD's utter failure to add core pieces is beginning to be revealed.

Sucks to be right.

You've been saying the same thing every time the team loses 2 or more games in row for the past five years.

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11 hours ago, mdrunning said:

I'd trade Manny if this team is dropping like a stone by mid-July. It's not going to happen, but it's something that should be considered.

As for the rest:

Davis - As you stated, too many years and too many dollars left on that contract.

Trumbo - If he were in the last year of his contract, then I'd say yes, but not with two years to go. He already can block a trade to seven teams (which ones, I don't know), and the fact that he's under contract for two more seasons takes the National League out of the equation. They're not going to take two years of a primary DH later for an extra bat now. Even in the AL, the market is very limited, if any exists at all, and particularly with his power numbers down. Other teams are probably thinking that last year was something of an aberration.

Hardy - As someone else mentioned, his option for next year automatically vests if he's traded. Pass.

Tillman - Not only is he getting bombed, but you have to wonder if something isn't still wrong with that shoulder. Other teams will wonder the same thing.

Gausman - Still young enough and throws hard enough for someone to think he has upside, but it would be such a low sell it would practically be a giveaway.

O'Day - Two years to go on that contract and recurring shoulder problems. Ain't happening.

Brach - Pitching well and while he wasn't Britton in the closer role, he wasn't awful. Appears to be back on track and since he's under team control for another year, there could be considerable interest since he wouldn't be a two-month rental. (Washington immediately comes to mind.)

Miley - Before tonight, I thought maybe that 3.27 ERA (which got inflated against the Sox) would entice some teams. It still could, but I see a very limited market for him. Teams in hitter-friendly parks aren't likely to bite on a guy who allows too many baserunners and doesn't have electric stuff to begin with. Giving up two-run homers to catchers (on a 2-0 pitch, no less) with a .190/.207/.270 career batting line isn't going to have teams falling over themselves to get him.

Seth Smith - Another good game tonight, and I think he could be attractive to someone looking to add another bat. But he's strictly a platoon guy, so the return would probably be a couple of low-level prospects at best.

Kim - I don't know how badly Davis is hurt (I heard it may be an oblique), but if he's out for any length of time, at least there could be an opportunity to showcase Kim a bit with Mancini moving to first. The guy can hit when he gets regular playing time and could bring back something for a team looking to add a bat. A very team-friendly salary makes him at least worth a look.

Ubaldo - Only for the eternally masochistic.

Just not a whole lot of possibilities. That's why I've advocated staying the course for now and see what happens over the next month because there simply isn't much of value to trade right now. Like you said, it would help if some contenders had some serious injuries.

Good breakdown on these guys.

In a pennant race teams often get in a panic mode and overpay for players. Teams like Minnesota, Milwaukee and Colorado haven't smelled the playoffs for years and the fans will want to see action in a pennant race. The Nats really need bullpen help and the O's could hold the Nats hostage for Brach

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Kim has good baseball sense and instincts I would like to see him play more.Never addressed a true leadoff hitter and base stealer.

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1 hour ago, dshawg1 said:

Woahhhhh...Bordick says we must consider trading Manny, Britton and sending down Gausman:

 

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2017/06/13/former-oriole-mike-bordick-not-opposed-to-trading-manny-machado-zach-britton

 

 

Zack has no value now because he is on the DL. I would spot start Ubaldo against beatable teams to increase his trade value. I'd sign Manny long term NOW.

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1 minute ago, johnpolitics said:

Zack has no value now because he is on the DL. I would spot start Ubaldo against beatable teams to increase his trade value. I'd sign Manny long term NOW.

Manny is going to Miami 

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Posted (edited)

After reading these posts, it appears to me as if the majority of people on this forum feel Big Dan doesn't have the foresight or vision to oversee a rebuilding project.

He also didn't have the foresight or vision to build a 2014 division championship team into a World Series contender. In fact, they've regressed ever since. He should be fired, end of story.

Edited by pitbull

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