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pitbull

Is it time for Big Dan to blow it up & rebuild?

90 posts in this topic

Something has to change. Something major.

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It's kind of depressing knowing that they are probably about to enter another extended period of irrelevance.

The past five seasons were decent, but all they won was a division title.

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2 hours ago, bleedingorangeandblack said:

Manny is going to Miami 

Do you mean via trade or when he hits free agency?

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Posted (edited)

2 hours ago, johnpolitics said:

Zack has no value now because he is on the DL. I would spot start Ubaldo against beatable teams to increase his trade value. I'd sign Manny long term NOW.

I agree about Britton. If he hopefully comes back healthy this year, he has to be given time to re-establish value. In fact, I'm guessing that if he is dealt, it wouldn't be until next offseason at the earliest.

That's an interesting take on Ubaldo, but the problem right now is Ubaldo's own team is the most beatable team in baseball.

Edited by mdrunning

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44 minutes ago, mdrunning said:

Do you mean via trade or when he hits free agency?

FA 

I would be shocked (but happy) if he is in Baltimore 

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8 minutes ago, bleedingorangeandblack said:

FA 

I would be shocked (but happy) if he is in Baltimore 

You may be right, but I think it would be an unpardonable sin if the Orioles let him hit free agency and get nothing in return but a pair of draft picks at the maximum.

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1 minute ago, mdrunning said:

You may be right, but I think it would be an unpardonable sin if the Orioles let him hit free agency and get nothing in return but a pair of draft picks at the maximum.

I agree but well we havent necessarily been clicking on all cylinders lately lol

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14 hours ago, johnpolitics said:

Good breakdown on these guys.

In a pennant race teams often get in a panic mode and overpay for players. Teams like Minnesota, Milwaukee and Colorado haven't smelled the playoffs for years and the fans will want to see action in a pennant race. The Nats really need bullpen help and the O's could hold the Nats hostage for Brach

Could you imagine if Britton were healthy and available? The Nats would probably throw in the Lincoln Memorial and the Washington Monument to get him. I do see something happening between Baltimore and Washington, assuming the Orioles remain in free-fall. The Nats have a championship-caliber team, but their bullpen is almost as bad as the Orioles' starting rotation. After several years of coming up short in the postseason, I think they'd be more than happy to overpay to try and put themselves over the top this year.

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Blowing it up getting much more serious discussion. Problem is-DD has to go. He is not the GM for a "blow it up" type of event. You don't roll the dice with that. Hire AM back on a 2 year deal. If he says no, give him more $, it would be worth it. Then fire him after 2 years because he is an awful GM:)

 

OR give him more money than the Phillies are giving him as a consultant.

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Posted (edited)

DD will trade Manny for MLB ready prospects, not highly rated prospects who may be 1-2 years away. That's his MO....has been since he arrived in Crabtown.

I don't trust him to walk my dog much less oversee the most important transitional periods in O's history.

Edited by Pickle20

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8 minutes ago, Pickle20 said:

DD will trade Manny for MLB ready prospects, not highly rated prospects who may be 1-2 years away. That's his MO....has been since he arrived in Crabtown.

I don't trust him to walk my dog much less oversee the most important transitional periods in O's history.

Exactly. Honestly, I think Buck and others realize this too. I am a cynical fan and all, but even I believe that they know DD can't oversee that. If they do, we both agree, this team is in for a long period of malaise. Not Syd Thrift bad...but not what it needs to be for a successful rebuild.

Great GM's can do both-Cashman and Theo are HOF shoe-in's in my opinion. Hate all you want, they are the best in the game and arguably ever. 

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6 minutes ago, dshawg1 said:

Exactly. Honestly, I think Buck and others realize this too. I am a cynical fan and all, but even I believe that they know DD can't oversee that. If they do, we both agree, this team is in for a long period of malaise. Not Syd Thrift bad...but not what it needs to be for a successful rebuild.

Great GM's can do both-Cashman and Theo are HOF shoe-in's in my opinion. Hate all you want, they are the best in the game and arguably ever. 

 

And they work for owners who will do whatever it takes to win. That helps. But their ability to consistently develop MiL players is where they really separate themselves from other GM's.

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25 minutes ago, dshawg1 said:

Blowing it up getting much more serious discussion. Problem is-DD has to go. He is not the GM for a "blow it up" type of event. You don't roll the dice with that. Hire AM back on a 2 year deal. If he says no, give him more $, it would be worth it. Then fire him after 2 years because he is an awful GM:)

 

OR give him more money than the Phillies are giving him as a consultant.

AM has a terrible track record in the draft. He's not the guy for the job. The problem is, no one wants to work for Angelos.  

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1 hour ago, weird-O said:

AM has a terrible track record in the draft. He's not the guy for the job. The problem is, no one wants to work for Angelos.  

Good point.

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16 hours ago, dshawg1 said:

Exactly. Honestly, I think Buck and others realize this too. I am a cynical fan and all, but even I believe that they know DD can't oversee that. If they do, we both agree, this team is in for a long period of malaise. Not Syd Thrift bad...but not what it needs to be for a successful rebuild.

Great GM's can do both-Cashman and Theo are HOF shoe-in's in my opinion. Hate all you want, they are the best in the game and arguably ever. 

Considering the fact that only six GMs are currently in the Hall, let's not get carried away here.

Theo did a great job with the Cubs, no doubt, and Cashman has the Yankees up and running sooner than everyone expected, but they both have the advantage of operating in big markets. Cashman hasn't presided over a team with a payroll below $200 million since 2007, and Theo's last two stops--Boston and now the Cubs--aren't exactly pikers in that department, either.

Let's see how well they'd do in the coupon-clipping environs of say, Tampa or Oakland. Not having money doesn't make you any less smart, but having it can certainly make you look smarter. Both seem to possess a feel for balancing long-term and short-term goals. Cashman had never made "next-year" deals until last season, and so far, it looks as if he made out pretty good. Likewise, Theo was up front about a complete Cubs' teardown, which isn't a lot of fun, but it makes for less pressure initially. and he generally made good with his trades and draft picks. Both, however have the luxury of considerable financial error that not many other GMs possess. Granted, every executive has made some bad free agent decisions, but the difference is, most of the others have to live with their mistakes.

If I were to guess the next executive for the Hall, it would be Billy "Moneyball" Beane. Despite a shoestring budget and the worst stadium by far in baseball, his clubs have reached the postseason eight times in his two decades as GM. Dave Dombrowski of Boston might be the only executive who match Beane for being pro-active and aggressive, but Dombrowski's veterans for prospects and all-in approach on free agents approach eventually leaves his teams in worse shape than when he found them. He did that in Detroit and he's been cleaning out the cupboard pretty rapidly in Boston as well.

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I think it might be helpful to break down the O's woes into categories: acute, and chronic. Losing an all-star reliever for half the season is an acute problem. Having your #1 starting pitcher miss all of spring training is also an acute problem. Batting slumps from proven hitters is another example of an acute problem. Failing to either sign or develop good starting pitchers is a chronic/systemic problem. I would also place undisciplined hitting in the chronic/systemic category as well. The O's suffer from both acute and chronic/systemic problems. I think posters like pitbull focus on the chronic/systemic problems because they tend to limit the ability of the team to win championships. And there's some legitimacy to those contentions. Having been so bad for so long tends to make fans settle for just "being in contention" at the end of the season. That's better than it was, but not really geared towards winning championships. Sometimes a lack of acute problems masks a bigger underlying chronic/systemic problem. This year the acute problems are accentuating not only the day to day issues, but deeper, more long term issues as well.(i.e. lack of depth on the farm club, etc.) So even though I don't follow the O's all that closely, I think it's reasonable to suggest that this team needs solutions to both its acute, and more importantly, its long term chronic/systemic problems to be a real contender.

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1 hour ago, OriginalColtsFan said:

I think it might be helpful to break down the O's woes into categories: acute, and chronic. Losing an all-star reliever for half the season is an acute problem. Having your #1 starting pitcher miss all of spring training is also an acute problem. Batting slumps from proven hitters is another example of an acute problem. Failing to either sign or develop good starting pitchers is a chronic/systemic problem. I would also place undisciplined hitting in the chronic/systemic category as well. The O's suffer from both acute and chronic/systemic problems. I think posters like pitbull focus on the chronic/systemic problems because they tend to limit the ability of the team to win championships. And there's some legitimacy to those contentions. Having been so bad for so long tends to make fans settle for just "being in contention" at the end of the season. That's better than it was, but not really geared towards winning championships. Sometimes a lack of acute problems masks a bigger underlying chronic/systemic problem. This year the acute problems are accentuating not only the day to day issues, but deeper, more long term issues as well.(i.e. lack of depth on the farm club, etc.) So even though I don't follow the O's all that closely, I think it's reasonable to suggest that this team needs solutions to both its acute, and more importantly, its long term chronic/systemic problems to be a real contender.

I've butted heads with a few posters over this point. After a few years of being competitive, I became critical of the FO, for not doing enough. The response was usually along the lines of what you mentioned here. Or I would get, "would you rather see them losing for 14 seasons?". I compared the O's to the Pirates. Both teams suddenly became competitive. They both had some post season appearances, but they've both come up short. Year after year, they both took the same approach of plugging holes in the rotation/roster. Neither team pushed in all their chips, and said, "It's time for a parade". And so here they both sit, still hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, still just a possible wild card team, still likely to see an early exit from Oct, if they get there at all.

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For me, there were two memorable seasons of the five.

2014, of course, wherein they actually won something and probably had a World Series-worthy squad.

And 2012, which was one unlikely win after another and really renewed the long-dormant Oriole Magic.

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Havent heard much, in fact anything, from the Front Office during this whole 10-25 stretch (or whatever it is).

Makes me wonder if Big Dan is on the Hot Seat.

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Posted (edited)

On 6/14/2017 at 9:15 AM, Pickle20 said:

 

And they work for owners who will do whatever it takes to win. That helps. But their ability to consistently develop MiL players is where they really separate themselves from other GM's.

I'm afraid I'm going to have to respectfully disagree here.

When did the Yankees consistently develop homegrown talent? They have some young studs presently in Judge and Sanchez, which obviously bodes well for them, but up until now they hadn't turned out a core group since the early 90s when guys like Jeter, Bernie Williams and Posada were in the pipeline. They also haven't produced a true top-of-the-rotation starter since Andy Pettitte, which was some 20 years ago.

That's one reason their payroll soared above $200 million by mid-2000's: they didn't have the young, cheap talent to offset the free agent contracts. If their farm system becomes highly productive, coupled with their obvious financial advantages, the Yankees could not only become a good team again, but a juggernaut.

 

Edited by mdrunning

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15 hours ago, OriginalColtsFan said:

I think it might be helpful to break down the O's woes into categories: acute, and chronic. Losing an all-star reliever for half the season is an acute problem. Having your #1 starting pitcher miss all of spring training is also an acute problem. Batting slumps from proven hitters is another example of an acute problem. Failing to either sign or develop good starting pitchers is a chronic/systemic problem. I would also place undisciplined hitting in the chronic/systemic category as well. The O's suffer from both acute and chronic/systemic problems. I think posters like pitbull focus on the chronic/systemic problems because they tend to limit the ability of the team to win championships. And there's some legitimacy to those contentions. Having been so bad for so long tends to make fans settle for just "being in contention" at the end of the season. That's better than it was, but not really geared towards winning championships. Sometimes a lack of acute problems masks a bigger underlying chronic/systemic problem. This year the acute problems are accentuating not only the day to day issues, but deeper, more long term issues as well.(i.e. lack of depth on the farm club, etc.) So even though I don't follow the O's all that closely, I think it's reasonable to suggest that this team needs solutions to both its acute, and more importantly, its long term chronic/systemic problems to be a real contender.

Interesting perspective, but I think it's also a case of the Orioles' shortcomings--be they acute or chronic--all coming home to roost at the same time. In previous years, if the starting pitching was shaky, there was always the bullpen to clean up the mess. The offense, though consisting mostly of free-swingers, could still bash enough homeruns to win enough games and keep the team closer to the top of the standings than the bottom. A precarious formula, but as long as two of the cylinders were firing, the Orioles were largely guaranteed to win more than they lost.

There are also the unexpected factors, which is something every team deals with. For every pleasant surprise like Mancini, there's also the problem of Tillman, being touted at this time last year as a Cy Young candidate, struggling mightily. Then there's the No.a 3 hole in the order becoming a black hole with Machado batting just .218. Those are things you simply can't account for. Now the pitching is both decimated and just plain bad, while the offense is sputtering along at a minus-47 run differential, second worst in the American League behind Oakland. 

This is the year also where Duquette may finally have been hung by his own petard. Previously he had been able to find cheap talent that would, at least for a time, outperform their track records. Guys like Jason Hammel, Miggy, De Aza, Bud Norris, Delmon Young and Chen were all picked up inexpensively and were key contributors. This is very similar to what Duquette did in Boston and even in Montreal (where every player had better have been cheap), but unfortunately, what worked then doesn't appear to be working now. 

Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of "fix-it" options right now. Contenders aren't going to deal their best players at mid-season, and there simply isn't enough talent in the minor leagues to make a major "this year" deal to try and right all of the current wrongs, especially once the trade deadline market heats up. Considering what the Orioles are in the midst of, one guy isn't going to turn things around anyway, I don't care who it is.

In the words of Casey Stengel after he took over the Mets: "We're just two players away from contention: Mickey Mantle and Sandy Koufax."

 

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1 hour ago, mdrunning said:

Interesting perspective, but I think it's also a case of the Orioles' shortcomings--be they acute or chronic--all coming home to roost at the same time. In previous years, if the starting pitching was shaky, there was always the bullpen to clean up the mess. The offense, though consisting mostly of free-swingers, could still bash enough homeruns to win enough games and keep the team closer to the top of the standings than the bottom. A precarious formula, but as long as two of the cylinders were firing, the Orioles were largely guaranteed to win more than they lost.

There are also the unexpected factors, which is something every team deals with. For every pleasant surprise like Mancini, there's also the problem of Tillman, being touted at this time last year as a Cy Young candidate, struggling mightily. Then there's the No.a 3 hole in the order becoming a black hole with Machado batting just .218. Those are things you simply can't account for. Now the pitching is both decimated and just plain bad, while the offense is sputtering along at a minus-47 run differential, second worst in the American League behind Oakland. 

This is the year also where Duquette may finally have been hung by his own petard. Previously he had been able to find cheap talent that would, at least for a time, outperform their track records. Guys like Jason Hammel, Miggy, De Aza, Bud Norris, Delmon Young and Chen were all picked up inexpensively and were key contributors. This is very similar to what Duquette did in Boston and even in Montreal (where every player had better have been cheap), but unfortunately, what worked then doesn't appear to be working now. 

Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of "fix-it" options right now. Contenders aren't going to deal their best players at mid-season, and there simply isn't enough talent in the minor leagues to make a major "this year" deal to try and right all of the current wrongs, especially once the trade deadline market heats up. Considering what the Orioles are in the midst of, one guy isn't going to turn things around anyway, I don't care who it is.

In the words of Casey Stengel after he took over the Mets: "We're just two players away from contention: Mickey Mantle and Sandy Koufax."

 

Well said. :)

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7 hours ago, mdrunning said:

I'm afraid I'm going to have to respectfully disagree here.

When did the Yankees consistently develop homegrown talent? They have some young studs presently in Judge and Sanchez, which obviously bodes well for them, but up until now they hadn't turned out a core group since the early 90s when guys like Jeter, Bernie Williams and Posada were in the pipeline. They also haven't produced a true top-of-the-rotation starter since Andy Pettitte, which was some 20 years ago.

That's one reason their payroll soared above $200 million by mid-2000's: they didn't have the young, cheap talent to offset the free agent contracts. If their farm system becomes highly productive, coupled with their obvious financial advantages, the Yankees could not only become a good team again, but a juggernaut.

 

Maybe pickle was thinking more about Boston, when he mentioned developing talent. 

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