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Mr. Buzzcut

"Orioles Willing To Trade Britton, Brach, O’Day, Smith"

74 posts in this topic

16 hours ago, bmore_ken said:

Do I think a team is mortgaging it's future for a player having a lousy year and will command a king's ransom a year from now in free agency?  NO

Teams with good farm systems don't mortgage their future to trade for a Machado. 

The O's won't get back as much as they should get for him due to his struggles and FA in 2019. 

But he would still get a lot.

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15 hours ago, Rob said:

The Cubs gave up their #1 and #2 prospects along with 3 more players in the deal to get Jose Quintana from the White Sox. Quintana was 4-8 with a 4.49 ERA. A lot to give for a subpar pitcher.

Who has been great before this season.

People will give up the goods for Manny...if we were actually open to trading him.

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I've been curious to see where Manny's heart lays. Is he NY bound, to play where his hero finished out his career? Does he go the old gunslinger route, and follow the largest offer, no matter where it takes him? I don't see Miami calling him back home.  

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1 hour ago, Pickle20 said:

Teams with good farm systems don't mortgage their future to trade for a Machado. 

The O's won't get back as much as they should get for him due to his struggles and FA in 2019. 

But he would still get a lot.

And I don't think it will vary drastically from now to the offseason. In fact, I think the plan is to make him a best and final offer and then trade him in the offseason.

The other pieces need to go now (as we have discussed in detail): Britton, Brach, Castillo, Smith and others with little to no value (Ubaldo, Miley, O'Day)

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1 minute ago, weird-O said:

I've been curious to see where Manny's heart lays. Is he NY bound, to play where his hero finished out his career? Does he go the old gunslinger route, and follow the largest offer, no matter where it takes him? I don't see Miami calling him back home.  

My guess is Miami.

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11 minutes ago, dshawg1 said:

My guess is Miami.

I'd be floored if Miami offered him the speculated $40M/yr. 

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7 minutes ago, weird-O said:

I'd be floored if Miami offered him the speculated $40M/yr. 

$40M isn't impossible but salaries have become less insane in the past few years. As you know, Manny's defense is a large portion of his WAR so with an injury..makes the risk much greater for him. I am sure teams think about that.

What I would love to understand is how insurance on that works. How much is recouped in a case like Albert Belle? Do they only recoup if the player has a career-ending injury?

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8 minutes ago, dshawg1 said:

$40M isn't impossible but salaries have become less insane in the past few years. As you know, Manny's defense is a large portion of his WAR so with an injury..makes the risk much greater for him. I am sure teams think about that.

What I would love to understand is how insurance on that works. How much is recouped in a case like Albert Belle? Do they only recoup if the player has a career-ending injury?

In the Albert Belle case the Orioles had to keep him on the 40-man roster even though he could never play to collect the insurance. The Orioles recovered an astounding 27.3 million out of a 39-million-dollar loss represented by Belle’s injury.

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48 minutes ago, weird-O said:

I've been curious to see where Manny's heart lays. Is he NY bound, to play where his hero finished out his career? Does he go the old gunslinger route, and follow the largest offer, no matter where it takes him? I don't see Miami calling him back home.  

I don't see Miami paying him but if he had his way, he would go there in an instant.

I do believe though that if the O's paid him what he wanted, he would have no problem staying in Bmore, assuming that Schoop is here long term, and the O's show him some kind of commitment to winning. 

 

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I thought insurance on contracts had become a thing of the past. Companies were losing tons of money.

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Posted (edited)

11 minutes ago, Pickle20 said:

I don't see Miami paying him but if he had his way, he would go there in an instant.

I do believe though that if the O's paid him what he wanted, he would have no problem staying in Bmore, assuming that Schoop is here long term, and the O's show him some kind of commitment to winning. 

 

I think Miami has too much of a losing history. Any player who goes there, does so with the understanding that they probably won't be playing for a competitive team. It's been 7 years since they had a winning season, and that was little more than posing a .500 record. It's been 14 years since they've been in the playoffs. Money talks, and players have gone to the highest bidder. But Manny will be courted by many good teams that can offer him the $$$, and a chance to get a ring.   

Edited by weird-O

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8 minutes ago, weird-O said:

I think Miami has too much of a losing history. Any player who goes there, does so with the understanding that they probably won't be playing for a competitive team. It's been 7 years since they had a winning season, and that was little more than posing a .500 record. It's been 14 years since they've been in the playoffs. Money talks, and players have gone to the highest bidder. But Manny will be courted by many good teams that can offer him the $$$, and a chance to get a ring.   

That may change with new ownership and new ownership might also want to make a statement. Still, I think Machado will go to the highest bidder and the tie-breaker would most definitely be the team's competitiveness.

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13 hours ago, mdrunning said:

That's not true at all.

Any number of teams would be quite amenable to acquiring a one-year rental player at a salary still far below his eventual market value. Even if that team should fall out of contention, the silver lining is that they have a helluva trade chip to deal. 

In such a case, it is doubtful that the team involved would give us fair value for Manny.  Why would they do so without a pretty good idea that they can sign him?  Other teams would know his present team is under the gun to deal him or risk losing him and, so, would also not be inclined to pay up.  If you have to sign Manny as a FA anyway, why give away players to do it?  We need to find a team that is both in the hunt now and able to sign Manny after next year and not in the AL, if possible.  That means the Dodgers most likely.

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Posted (edited)

10 minutes ago, veritas said:

In such a case, it is doubtful that the team involved would give us fair value for Manny.  Why would they do so without a pretty good idea that they can sign him?  Other teams would know his present team is under the gun to deal him or risk losing him and, so, would also not be inclined to pay up.

Exactly my point. I'm not saying he's not tradable, I'm saying this haul people are expecting we'll get for him is unlikely.

Edited by bmore_ken

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1 minute ago, bmore_ken said:

Exactly my point. I'm not saying he's not tradable, I'm saying this haul people are expecting we'll get for him is unlikely.

We'll get the most bang from a team feeling itself on the cusp of a championship and with the financial muscle to resign him.  That is why the Dodgers are lining up as a good fit.  If the Orioles don't act soon, the window will close and the odds of not getting fair value will increase daily.

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1 hour ago, weird-O said:

I've been curious to see where Manny's heart lays. Is he NY bound, to play where his hero finished out his career? Does he go the old gunslinger route, and follow the largest offer, no matter where it takes him? I don't see Miami calling him back home.  

If he continued some of his lackadaisical playing there the NY media would eat him alive ......

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20 minutes ago, veritas said:

We'll get the most bang from a team feeling itself on the cusp of a championship and with the financial muscle to resign him.  That is why the Dodgers are lining up as a good fit.  If the Orioles don't act soon, the window will close and the odds of not getting fair value will increase daily.

Dodgers have players there so they don't need a 3rd baseman. Unless the plan is SS.

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1 hour ago, weird-O said:

I think Miami has too much of a losing history. Any player who goes there, does so with the understanding that they probably won't be playing for a competitive team. It's been 7 years since they had a winning season, and that was little more than posing a .500 record. It's been 14 years since they've been in the playoffs. Money talks, and players have gone to the highest bidder. But Manny will be courted by many good teams that can offer him the $$$, and a chance to get a ring.   

He absolutely loves Miami though. And if they made a commitment to win, and signing a player like himself is a big step in that direction, he'd be more apt to buy into that.

Basically, the Marlins are sitting where the O's are now. I don't know what Miami's MiL system looks like but it can't be worse than ours.

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What's sad about the whole thing is that everyone knew a year or more back, or at least strongly suspected, that this organization would never pay up to keep Manny.  When they pay up, they overpay, and for the wrong players.  It's a very dumb organization unless stringing the fans along while collecting your TV checks is what qualifies as smart these days.  Maybe it does.  In the end, as always, the fans lose.

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57 minutes ago, veritas said:

What's sad about the whole thing is that everyone knew a year or more back, or at least strongly suspected, that this organization would never pay up to keep Manny.  When they pay up, they overpay, and for the wrong players.  It's a very dumb organization unless stringing the fans along while collecting your TV checks is what qualifies as smart these days.  Maybe it does.  In the end, as always, the fans lose.

I wouldn't have signed Davis for that contract BUT he is more likely to perform than Manny. Why you ask? Much of Manny's value is tied to his defense.

I know everyone wants to keep Manny, but small to mid market teams can't afford to have $60 Million tied to 2 players and remain competitive.

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3 hours ago, weird-O said:

I've been curious to see where Manny's heart lays. Is he NY bound, to play where his hero finished out his career? Does he go the old gunslinger route, and follow the largest offer, no matter where it takes him? I don't see Miami calling him back home.  

Miami with brotherinlaw

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7 hours ago, dshawg1 said:

I wouldn't have signed Davis for that contract BUT he is more likely to perform than Manny. Why you ask? Much of Manny's value is tied to his defense.

I know everyone wants to keep Manny, but small to mid market teams can't afford to have $60 Million tied to 2 players and remain competitive.

Davis is not more likely to perform than Machado.

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11 hours ago, veritas said:

In such a case, it is doubtful that the team involved would give us fair value for Manny.  Why would they do so without a pretty good idea that they can sign him?  Other teams would know his present team is under the gun to deal him or risk losing him and, so, would also not be inclined to pay up.  If you have to sign Manny as a FA anyway, why give away players to do it?  We need to find a team that is both in the hunt now and able to sign Manny after next year and not in the AL, if possible.  That means the Dodgers most likely.

Teams trade for top-shelf players every year without knowing whether or not they can re-sign them. Kansas City emptied its farm system in 2015 for both Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, who figured to be, and were, two-month rentals. The Royals knew the risk, but they were trying to win right now, which they ultimately did. At the same time, Toronto gave up a package which included top prospect Daniel Norris to the Tigers for free-agent-to-be David Price. The Cubs gave up four players, including top-25 prospect Gleyber Torres, to the Yankees for Aroldis Chapman, who then re-signed with the Yankees over the winter. 

Without citing any actual statistics, I'd say the number of players acquired as rentals who ultimately re-up with that team is extremely low. The only one I can think of off-hand was Yoenis Cespedes, who signed with the Mets after being acquired by them from Detroit in a 2015 deadline deal.

You don't need to find a big-market team to find a match in a trade. What's needed is a team which figures to have a chance to win and has the resources to acquire him. If Manny were traded before next season, the list of possible suitors increases dramatically because virtually any team, even a small-market club, would be able to take on a star player for one year at a below-market contract. The biggest difference between dealing in the offseason as opposed to the deadline is the urgency. Contenders tend to become a bit desperate as the deadline approaches, particularly if they see other teams around them making deals, and might be more inclined to overpay.

 

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