RavingManiac

Predictions

165 posts in this topic

I think it all boils down to the running game. It was lousy last year and it put too much pressure on Flacco to carry the team and he's simply incapable of doing that. If it can help sustain drives, eat up the clock and allow Joe to use play action much more than last year, I do think they'll be good enough to compliment a defense that has the potential to be dominant this year.  Run the ball effectively, put up 20-27 points a game and let the defense do the rest.  It may not be exciting or pretty but it will carry them to the play-offs.  So, I'll play the optimist as of now and say 10-6. 

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I see Cameron Irving is available via trade. I think with the signing of Zuttah, the ravens, unfortunately, will not be pursuing him though. I think they might have if Thry didn't sign zuttah

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If the offensive line continues to play like they have been,without Stanley, these last couple of preseason games, Flacco will not have anything to worry about. He will have plenty of time to pick apart defenses. The run blocking looks like it does need work though according to deltoid but I'll take what I have seen so far. 

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I predict Justin Tucker will again be the team's MVP; because of him and what appears to be a very strong defense my homer/optimistic side says 9-7.  

 

(My more realistic side would have said 7-9, but it's banned for the moment.);)

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, Struds said:

I predict Justin Tucker will again be the team's MVP; because of him and what appears to be a very strong defense my homer/optimistic side says 9-7.  

 

(My more realistic side would have said 7-9, but it's banned for the moment.);)

You think we are a worse team overall than last year, struds?

Edited by RavingManiac

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59 minutes ago, RavingManiac said:

You think we are a worse team overall than last year, struds?

I don't think the offense will have any cohesion at the start of the season because of the injuries and retirement, and if Harbaugh does not reign in Morningwheg (spelling?) this year, we'll be 3 and out far too often.  This defense looks really good, but I'm not convinced it's enough if the offense can't at least eat up some clock and get Tucker into range with regularity.  

Hope I'm proven wrong.

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I like the way the offensive line has looked in pass protection. Flacco was terrible last year for the beginning of the season and we still very easily could have went 11-5. If the offense can at least do what it did last year then I think we can win the division. I don't see this defense giving up 4th qtr leads like last year. I just wish Flacco could have played one preseason game just so we could see how this offense looked with him behind center. 

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If Flacco and Perriman are healthy...10-6, with at least one playoff upset.

If Flacco and Perriman aren't healthy...8-8.    

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3 hours ago, JasonM said:

If Flacco and Perriman are healthy...10-6, with at least one playoff upset.

If Flacco and Perriman aren't healthy...8-8.    

JMO, I don't think Perriman makes that much of   a difference with Maclin and Wallace healthy. 

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For what it is worth, I think it may take 12-13 wins to beat the Steelers in the division, even with a split on their home and home games.  They have made some late preseason deals that is uncharacteristic for them.  They traded for Vance McDonald to upgrade their TEs, and they signed Joe Haden to help with what has been an inconsistent secondary.   But it is really the schedule that makes me think they are not going to lose a lot of games.  Most of their tougher games they get at home.  They get Green Bay, Minnesota, Tennessee, and New England all at home.   The schedule maker was especially kind to them with New England.  They get New England on their third straight road game, coming off a Monday night division match up with the Dolphins.  Goodell sticking it to the Pats perhaps.  Quite frankly, the only hard games they have on the road are the Ravens and Chiefs, although Cincinnati and Houston are no gimmes.  The Ravens on the other hand happen to get Green Bay, Minnesota, Tennessee, and Oakland all on the road.    They seem to have all of their easier games at M&T.   Of course all of that is without taking injuries into account.  Any lengthy injury to Roethlisberger would change my thinking quite a bit.  Same is also true for the Ravens with Flacco.  

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1 hour ago, cprenegade said:

For what it is worth, I think it may take 12-13 wins to beat the Steelers in the division, even with a split on their home and home games.  They have made some late preseason deals that is uncharacteristic for them.  They traded for Vance McDonald to upgrade their TEs, and they signed Joe Haden to help with what has been an inconsistent secondary.   But it is really the schedule that makes me think they are not going to lose a lot of games.  Most of their tougher games they get at home.  They get Green Bay, Minnesota, Tennessee, and New England all at home.   The schedule maker was especially kind to them with New England.  They get New England on their third straight road game, coming off a Monday night division match up with the Dolphins.  Goodell sticking it to the Pats perhaps.  Quite frankly, the only hard games they have on the road are the Ravens and Chiefs, although Cincinnati and Houston are no gimmes.  The Ravens on the other hand happen to get Green Bay, Minnesota, Tennessee, and Oakland all on the road.    They seem to have all of their easier games at M&T.   Of course all of that is without taking injuries into account.  Any lengthy injury to Roethlisberger would change my thinking quite a bit.  Same is also true for the Ravens with Flacco.  

I'm not worried about the Steelers. They have a good offense. A good defense can shut them down and the Ravens have a really good defense. I think we sweep them this year. Generally speaking, fans give too much credit to great offenses and not enough credit to great defenses. Green Bay has always had a great offense. The Ravens have always had a great defense. Compare their playoff records. I think people would be surprised.

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4 hours ago, RavingManiac said:

I'm not worried about the Steelers. They have a good offense. A good defense can shut them down and the Ravens have a really good defense. I think we sweep them this year. Generally speaking, fans give too much credit to great offenses and not enough credit to great defenses. Green Bay has always had a great offense. The Ravens have always had a great defense. Compare their playoff records. I think people would be surprised.

I feel like we had this same conversation last year.  Fans do give more credit to great offenses.  But in the last 5 years or so the NFL has systematically changed the rules to favor offenses.  They qualify it by saying they are protecting players.  The rules have been changed so that defensive ends cannot nail QBs the way they used to be able to do.  And even in this off season they took measures to take away defensive tactics.  In the past you could hit a receiver within 5 yards without a flag.  This year if the receiver is looking back at the QB the defense will draw a 15 yard unsportsmanlike penalty resulting in a first down even within that 5 yard buffer zone. That's why Vontaze Burfict drew a suspension.   Every year for the past 5 the NFL has been tilting the field towards the offense.  That's why you can see an Atlanta team ranked in the bottom third of the league in defense, yet a top 5 offense, make the Super Bowl.  The rules have changed and they favor the offense big time.  Sure it benefits you to have a great defense, but the old saying that defense wins championships is no longer true the way it was decades ago.  

As for the Ravens and Steelers, I do agree the Ravens look to have an improved defense over the one that was very good last year.  I also think the Steelers defense is improved over last year, though not nearly as good as the Ravens.  But when it comes to offense, different story.  The Steelers look like they have improved an already very good offense with the addition of Martavius Bryant off suspension, and the addition of Vance Mcdonald at TE.  They return their entire offense from last year and their offensive line graded out in the top 5.  The biggest question they have is can Roethlisberger stay healthy.  The Ravens look like their offense is not as good as last year and it wasn't very good last year.  Their offensive line is very questionable, their TE situation is much weaker without Pitta and Gilmore, and their RBs are average at best.  They went all defense in the off season at the expense of the offense.  Maybe their plan was to solidify the defense and let the offense wait one more year.  Might be why they extended Harbaugh.  Perhaps they realize that the offense is not going to be in the top 2/3 of the league and they figure to go all in on the offense next year with the hopes of competing then.  I think they get a wild card this year, but I still think the offense is not ready and is a year away from really making this team a legitimate contender.  

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1 hour ago, cprenegade said:

I feel like we had this same conversation last year.  Fans do give more credit to great offenses.  But in the last 5 years or so the NFL has systematically changed the rules to favor offenses.  They qualify it by saying they are protecting players.  The rules have been changed so that defensive ends cannot nail QBs the way they used to be able to do.  And even in this off season they took measures to take away defensive tactics.  In the past you could hit a receiver within 5 yards without a flag.  This year if the receiver is looking back at the QB the defense will draw a 15 yard unsportsmanlike penalty resulting in a first down even within that 5 yard buffer zone. That's why Vontaze Burfict drew a suspension.   Every year for the past 5 the NFL has been tilting the field towards the offense.  That's why you can see an Atlanta team ranked in the bottom third of the league in defense, yet a top 5 offense, make the Super Bowl.  The rules have changed and they favor the offense big time.  Sure it benefits you to have a great defense, but the old saying that defense wins championships is no longer true the way it was decades ago.  

As for the Ravens and Steelers, I do agree the Ravens look to have an improved defense over the one that was very good last year.  I also think the Steelers defense is improved over last year, though not nearly as good as the Ravens.  But when it comes to offense, different story.  The Steelers look like they have improved an already very good offense with the addition of Martavius Bryant off suspension, and the addition of Vance Mcdonald at TE.  They return their entire offense from last year and their offensive line graded out in the top 5.  The biggest question they have is can Roethlisberger stay healthy.  The Ravens look like their offense is not as good as last year and it wasn't very good last year.  Their offensive line is very questionable, their TE situation is much weaker without Pitta and Gilmore, and their RBs are average at best.  They went all defense in the off season at the expense of the offense.  Maybe their plan was to solidify the defense and let the offense wait one more year.  Might be why they extended Harbaugh.  Perhaps they realize that the offense is not going to be in the top 2/3 of the league and they figure to go all in on the offense next year with the hopes of competing then.  I think they get a wild card this year, but I still think the offense is not ready and is a year away from really making this team a legitimate contender.  

So, in order to be one of the two WC teams, you figure the Ravens will be better than the Bengals and all the teams in the AFC west [correction] that don't win that division (i.e. Oakland, Denver, KC, etc.)?

Edited by OriginalColtsFan

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Just now, OriginalColtsFan said:

So, in order to be one of the two WC teams, you figure the Ravens will be better than the Bengals and all the teams in the NFC west that don't win the division?

I'm sure you meant AFC West.  I personally think that Oakland and KC will be the best two teams in that division, possibly both being 10 win teams like last year.  I'm not sure where the Bengals will be this year.  They were not so good last year and have lost some players this year.  If Mixon develops, the offense might still be decent, but I don't think of them as much better than 8-8.  I think after New England in the East, the rest of that division is no better than 8-8.  Someone will win the South, but they could even win it at 9-7 or even 8-8.  The best team in that division might be Tennessee.  Houston has a great defense but is QB challenged as usual.  The Colts only chance is if Luck returns.  So when I rank the AFC teams I put New England at 1, Pittsburgh 2, Oakland 3, KC 4, and after that everything else could be up for grabs.  With the exception of Cleveland and the Jets, all the other teams are very close in talent and any of them could make a run.  That's why I can see a 9-7 Ravens team being a wild card.  

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1 hour ago, cprenegade said:

I'm sure you meant AFC West.  I personally think that Oakland and KC will be the best two teams in that division, possibly both being 10 win teams like last year.  I'm not sure where the Bengals will be this year.  They were not so good last year and have lost some players this year.  If Mixon develops, the offense might still be decent, but I don't think of them as much better than 8-8.  I think after New England in the East, the rest of that division is no better than 8-8.  Someone will win the South, but they could even win it at 9-7 or even 8-8.  The best team in that division might be Tennessee.  Houston has a great defense but is QB challenged as usual.  The Colts only chance is if Luck returns.  So when I rank the AFC teams I put New England at 1, Pittsburgh 2, Oakland 3, KC 4, and after that everything else could be up for grabs.  With the exception of Cleveland and the Jets, all the other teams are very close in talent and any of them could make a run.  That's why I can see a 9-7 Ravens team being a wild card.  

Yes. AFC West. My bad/typo. As far as the Ravens going 9-7, it's not beyond the realm of possibility, but I'd be shocked if it happens. Too many questions about the O-line, the receiving corps is average at best, the running game is maybe average, Joe is going to be rusty for at least the first few games, and the coaching is the coaching. As far as the defense goes, it's still being coached by Pees, and that's a weak spot as far as I'm concerned. Plus you've got Smith at CB and I'd be surprised if he makes it the entire season without getting hurt. So we'll see. I respect your breakdowns and, as I said, it's not beyond the realm of possibility but I wouldn't bet on the Ravens going 9-7. (And I'll tell ya...if Jackson can develop that young QB Kizer, I don't think the Browns will be an automatic "W" this year.)

Edited by OriginalColtsFan

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Flacco not fully returning to practice this week really concerns me.  At best, he is going to be rusty. 

The offensive line has been pretty good in pass protection in the pre-season, but that's not really the line we are going to see in week 1 either.  It's really hard to grade this offense right now, way too many unknowns.  Last year the offense was middle of the pack.  If they can manage that again this year, they'll content for a playoff berth.  I do think the addition of Maclin is being undervalued.  The receivers have a chance to be a pretty explosive bunch, and if the line can pass protect well, they're going to get some big plays in.  Combine that with an excellent defense, and well, you remember that formula I hope...

Like most teams though, the Ravens cannot afford injuries, other than maybe the secondary where they are really deep this year.

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9 hours ago, cprenegade said:

I feel like we had this same conversation last year.  Fans do give more credit to great offenses.  But in the last 5 years or so the NFL has systematically changed the rules to favor offenses.  They qualify it by saying they are protecting players.  The rules have been changed so that defensive ends cannot nail QBs the way they used to be able to do.  And even in this off season they took measures to take away defensive tactics.  In the past you could hit a receiver within 5 yards without a flag.  This year if the receiver is looking back at the QB the defense will draw a 15 yard unsportsmanlike penalty resulting in a first down even within that 5 yard buffer zone. That's why Vontaze Burfict drew a suspension.   Every year for the past 5 the NFL has been tilting the field towards the offense.  That's why you can see an Atlanta team ranked in the bottom third of the league in defense, yet a top 5 offense, make the Super Bowl.  The rules have changed and they favor the offense big time.  Sure it benefits you to have a great defense, but the old saying that defense wins championships is no longer true the way it was decades ago.  

As for the Ravens and Steelers, I do agree the Ravens look to have an improved defense over the one that was very good last year.  I also think the Steelers defense is improved over last year, though not nearly as good as the Ravens.  But when it comes to offense, different story.  The Steelers look like they have improved an already very good offense with the addition of Martavius Bryant off suspension, and the addition of Vance Mcdonald at TE.  They return their entire offense from last year and their offensive line graded out in the top 5.  The biggest question they have is can Roethlisberger stay healthy.  The Ravens look like their offense is not as good as last year and it wasn't very good last year.  Their offensive line is very questionable, their TE situation is much weaker without Pitta and Gilmore, and their RBs are average at best.  They went all defense in the off season at the expense of the offense.  Maybe their plan was to solidify the defense and let the offense wait one more year.  Might be why they extended Harbaugh.  Perhaps they realize that the offense is not going to be in the top 2/3 of the league and they figure to go all in on the offense next year with the hopes of competing then.  I think they get a wild card this year, but I still think the offense is not ready and is a year away from really making this team a legitimate contender.  

There is always going to be an exception to the rule and you are trying to exploit that exception with the falcons and they didn't even win. If you go back and look at the past super bowl champions, you will see that most have very good if not great defenses. That is just the facts. 

I don't know how you can adequately judge the offense this year without Flacco behind center. I don't see how anybody can. As far as the offensive line goes, they have looked pretty good in pass protection. I don't think Mallett had any sacks last game. In fact, I don't think he had any qb hurries. That is pretty good in my book. Do you think that is pretty good? Yes, I know it's only preseason but the defensive starters are trying to sack Mallett. Come regular season, with no sacks on Flacco, everyone will say it's only one game. Then they will say it's only two games and so on. 

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14 hours ago, RavingManiac said:

There is always going to be an exception to the rule and you are trying to exploit that exception with the falcons and they didn't even win. If you go back and look at the past super bowl champions, you will see that most have very good if not great defenses. That is just the facts. 

I don't know how you can adequately judge the offense this year without Flacco behind center. I don't see how anybody can. As far as the offensive line goes, they have looked pretty good in pass protection. I don't think Mallett had any sacks last game. In fact, I don't think he had any qb hurries. That is pretty good in my book. Do you think that is pretty good? Yes, I know it's only preseason but the defensive starters are trying to sack Mallett. Come regular season, with no sacks on Flacco, everyone will say it's only one game. Then they will say it's only two games and so on. 

I'm not trying to minimize the effect of a great defense.  I am merely pointing out that in the last 5 years the NFL has made rule changes specifically designed to make it harder on defenses.  I agree that it takes at least a good defense to make a deep run into the playoffs.  But it also takes a good offense.  The days where you could get away with having a great defense that carried a team without any type of decent offense are gone.  But a better indicator of what teams are going to go deep into the playoffs is those who have a good balance between offense and defense.   That's why I make Pittsburgh the favorite in the AFC North.  The Ravens had a good defense last year, they have improved it over the off season and it looks to be a top 5 defense.  The Steelers finished 12th in defense and have improved on their weaknesses as well.  I don't think they are as good as the Ravens, but they should at least be as good or better than their ranking of last year.  Last year the Steelers were 7 on offense and they look even better this year.  The Ravens were 17 and I have seen nowhere where they will be better.  Their running game, TE's, and offensive line all look to be worse or the same as last year.  The difference between the Raven's offensive unit and defensive unit is simply much greater than the difference between the Steelers offensive unit and defensive unit.  It all gets played out on the field and I will be the first to say I am wrong should it develop differently than I believe, but based on the two teams right now I think the Steelers are simply a better overall team then the Ravens.  You can't totally ignore a mediocre offense and expect it to get better.  As I said, maybe the plan was all in on defense this year, and go after the offense hard next year.  But the predictions are for this year, and with that offense I only see the Ravens as competing with a bunch of other mediocre teams for a wild card.  

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On 8/31/2017 at 5:11 PM, bmore_ken said:

JMO, I don't think Perriman makes that much of   a difference with Maclin and Wallace healthy. 

Maclin alone gives offense promise. I am excited to see what he brings.

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I think the defense will be good enough to get them to 9-7 but they miss the playoffs again ......

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Harbaugh's swan song. The extension becomes a de facto severance. 

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On 9/1/2017 at 1:04 AM, cprenegade said:

I'm sure you meant AFC West.  I personally think that Oakland and KC will be the best two teams in that division, possibly both being 10 win teams like last year.  I'm not sure where the Bengals will be this year.  They were not so good last year and have lost some players this year.  If Mixon develops, the offense might still be decent, but I don't think of them as much better than 8-8.  I think after New England in the East, the rest of that division is no better than 8-8.  Someone will win the South, but they could even win it at 9-7 or even 8-8.  The best team in that division might be Tennessee.  Houston has a great defense but is QB challenged as usual.  The Colts only chance is if Luck returns.  So when I rank the AFC teams I put New England at 1, Pittsburgh 2, Oakland 3, KC 4, and after that everything else could be up for grabs.  With the exception of Cleveland and the Jets, all the other teams are very close in talent and any of them could make a run.  That's why I can see a 9-7 Ravens team being a wild card.  

Which 9 teams do you see the Ravens beating, if you don't mind my asking. (Because I was looking at the schedule last night and was hard pressed to find 9. Not to say it can't happen, but it made me curious which 9 games you think the Ravens will win.)

Edited by OriginalColtsFan

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2 hours ago, OriginalColtsFan said:

Which 9 teams do you see the Ravens beating, if you don't mind my asking. (Because I was looking at the schedule last night and was hard pressed to find 9. Not to say it can't happen, but it made me curious which 9 games you think the Ravens will win.)

I only see 7 wins: 3-3 in the division, 2-2 vs. the NFC Central, Jacksonville and Miami. You can have a great defense but that only works well if the offense wins the time of possession battle. IE- Giants/Bills Super Bowl. 

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22 minutes ago, johnpolitics said:

I only see 7 wins: 3-3 in the division, 2-2 vs. the NFC Central, Jacksonville and Miami. You can have a great defense but that only works well if the offense wins the time of possession battle. IE- Giants/Bills Super Bowl. 

Which 3 division games do you see them winning? I think they'll be lucky to win 2. I don't see them winning either game against the Steelers, even though they do usually play them very tight/tough. I see them maybe taking 1 against Cincy. Maybe. And I think they're going to split with Cleveland this year. So winning 3 in the division would be a lot IMO. That's why I don't see this team winning 9 games. Especially if Joe's back problems resurface. Mallett is a total dog.

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37 minutes ago, OriginalColtsFan said:

Which 3 division games do you see them winning? I think they'll be lucky to win 2. I don't see them winning either game against the Steelers, even though they do usually play them very tight/tough. I see them maybe taking 1 against Cincy. Maybe. And I think they're going to split with Cleveland this year. So winning 3 in the division would be a lot IMO. That's why I don't see this team winning 9 games. Especially if Joe's back problems resurface. Mallett is a total dog.

1 Steeler and 2 Browns games. But if Flacco gets hurt and Mallet is the QB then 6 wins would be a lot and the Ravens will have a Top Ten pick for coach Josh McDaniels. 

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