RavingManiac

Predictions

165 posts in this topic

7 minutes ago, johnpolitics said:

1 Steeler and 2 Browns games. But if Flacco gets hurt and Mallet is the QB then 6 wins would be a lot and the Ravens will have a Top Ten pick for coach Josh McDaniels. 

Steelers @ M&T? And 2 Browns. We'll see. I don't think the Browns are going to be the doormats they've been, but then again...guilty until proven innocent when it comes to the Brownies.

;)

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2 minutes ago, OriginalColtsFan said:

Steelers @ M&T? And 2 Browns. We'll see. I don't think the Browns are going to be the doormats they've been, but then again...guilty until proven innocent when it comes to the Brownies.

;)

Every year people say "This is the year the Browns are for real." I'll wait for real. They just have bad karma. 

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4 minutes ago, johnpolitics said:

Every year people say "This is the year the Browns are for real." I'll wait for real. They just have bad karma. 

LOL. Same with the 'Fins. THIS IS THE YEAR THEY TURN IT AROUND. Not. THIS IS THE YEAR THEY FINALLY GOT THEIR FRANCHISE QB. Not. So yeah. I'll believe it when I see it. Still...Hurst as a starting guard? Jensen essentially a rookie at center (flashbacks to Gradkowski). Not a single game for Joe to prep before the start of the season? No Steve Smith. No Pitta. No Wagner. No Dixon. RUN Joe RUN!

Edited by OriginalColtsFan

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13 minutes ago, OriginalColtsFan said:

LOL. Same with the 'Fins. THIS IS THE YEAR THEY TURN IT AROUND. Not. THIS IS THE YEAR THEY FINALLY GOT THEIR FRANCHISE QB. Not. So yeah. I'll believe it when I see it. Still...Hurst as a starting guard? Jensen essentially a rookie at center (flashbacks to Gradkowski). Not a single game for Joe to prep before the start of the season? No Steve Smith. No Pitta. No Wagner. No Dixon. RUN Joe RUN!

Been hearing Fins talk too. One reason that is laughable: Jay Cutler. Plus if the Dolphins stadium is damaged that could screw things like the 2005 Saints

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1 minute ago, johnpolitics said:

Been hearing Fins talk too. One reason that is laughable: Jay Cutler. Plus if the Dolphins stadium is damaged that could screw things like the 2005 Saints

Cutler...the "Franchise QB" who came to the Bears and died.

And I didn't even think about the stadium in Florida. What a mess down there. My sister, nephew, and niece all live in Houston and the surrounding area. (Nephew is in downtown Houston proper, sister and niece live in suburbs. They're all okay, but it's a real mess there.)

Edited by OriginalColtsFan

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10 hours ago, johnpolitics said:

Every year people say "This is the year the Browns are for real." I'll wait for real. They just have bad karma. 

Yep. Literally every season at least one poster posts that and the Browns immediately procede to be who they are. 

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12 hours ago, OriginalColtsFan said:

LOL. Same with the 'Fins. THIS IS THE YEAR THEY TURN IT AROUND. Not. THIS IS THE YEAR THEY FINALLY GOT THEIR FRANCHISE QB. Not. So yeah. I'll believe it when I see it. Still...Hurst as a starting guard? Jensen essentially a rookie at center (flashbacks to Gradkowski). Not a single game for Joe to prep before the start of the season? No Steve Smith. No Pitta. No Wagner. No Dixon. RUN Joe RUN!

You might want to check again to see who plays for the Ravens and who doesn't 

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On 9/8/2017 at 5:00 PM, OriginalColtsFan said:

Which 9 teams do you see the Ravens beating, if you don't mind my asking. (Because I was looking at the schedule last night and was hard pressed to find 9. Not to say it can't happen, but it made me curious which 9 games you think the Ravens will win.)

It's not so much a game by game thing as it is just a feeling based on an easy schedule.  I broke the schedule out into sections and then looked to see where the games were played.  For most teams the NFL season is an ebb and flow.  There are games they are up for, and games they are a little less up for.  I gave the Ravens a 3-3 split in the division.  Split the 2 home games with Cincinnati, take 2 from Cleveland, lose both to Pittsburgh.  I would have given them a split with Pittsburgh except that their home game with Pittsburgh comes 1 week after going to London.  To the best of my knowledge, they are the first team ever to have to play the week after going to London.  That was by their FO design.  They did not want their bye that early in the season.  The NFL complied by giving them their biggest division rival the week after London.   

Next I looked at the non conference games with the NFC North.  I think they win at home against the Bears and Lions, Lose on the road to GB and Minn.  That brings them to 5-5.  I put them at 3-1 against the AFC South.  They should beat the Colts and Texans at home.  I think they will beat the Jags in London.  But I see them falling to a rising Tennessee team at their place.  That puts them at 8-6 with the additional two AFC games left.  I don't think they beat Oakland in Oakland, but I see them beating the Cutler led Dolphins at home.  That gets us to 9-7.   

I have to admit the games I have the least confidence in my picks are the Steelers at home, Texans at home, Lions at home, and Jags on the road.  But we will see how it works out.  

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10 hours ago, cprenegade said:

It's not so much a game by game thing as it is just a feeling based on an easy schedule.  I broke the schedule out into sections and then looked to see where the games were played.  For most teams the NFL season is an ebb and flow.  There are games they are up for, and games they are a little less up for.  I gave the Ravens a 3-3 split in the division.  Split the 2 home games with Cincinnati, take 2 from Cleveland, lose both to Pittsburgh.  I would have given them a split with Pittsburgh except that their home game with Pittsburgh comes 1 week after going to London.  To the best of my knowledge, they are the first team ever to have to play the week after going to London.  That was by their FO design.  They did not want their bye that early in the season.  The NFL complied by giving them their biggest division rival the week after London.   

Next I looked at the non conference games with the NFC North.  I think they win at home against the Bears and Lions, Lose on the road to GB and Minn.  That brings them to 5-5.  I put them at 3-1 against the AFC South.  They should beat the Colts and Texans at home.  I think they will beat the Jags in London.  But I see them falling to a rising Tennessee team at their place.  That puts them at 8-6 with the additional two AFC games left.  I don't think they beat Oakland in Oakland, but I see them beating the Cutler led Dolphins at home.  That gets us to 9-7.   

I have to admit the games I have the least confidence in my picks are the Steelers at home, Texans at home, Lions at home, and Jags on the road.  But we will see how it works out.  

Cool breakdown, and thanks for responding. I often go with "gut" calls and since you talk about breaking it down by sections, I see the first 3 or 4 games as essentially preseason games for Joe and the offense  because he missed the entire preseason, which will put them behind the 8-ball right out of the gate. It's going to take weeks, IMO, for him to get up to speed. And "up to speed" with this make shift offense is kind of an oxymoron. So basically, I'm giving away the Cincy game tomorrow and my only hope is that Joe survives in good enough shape to play the following week. Obviously, if Joe goes out for the year all bets are off and I'm sure you'd agree that the season would essentially be over.

But even with him in, the loss of Pitta and Steve Smith and Wagner are significant to say the least. And Juice as well. But the elephant in the middle of the room remains the O-line. We've seen this movie before, and it's not pretty. There's simply no getting around it. Roman was brought in to essentially run the running game, but habits are hard to break and Mornhinweg is simply not known for factoring in the running game into his plans/schemes. And it can't be a half-hearted thing. Kubiak was successful specifically because he made it a run first offense. That's what the Ravens are built to execute. Or were built to execute. Now, if the running game fails the offense becomes one dimensional and with that line it's really game over. They'll be hauling Joe off on the cart.

And because of that O-line I'm not sure if Maclin is going to help all that much. The type of receiver that would help is a go-to slot receiver who can catch a short quick developing slant pass and take it to the house. I don't believe Maclin is that guy. And the O-line will not provide the necessary time to work Maclin into the program the way he did in the other places he played where he was the deep threat. So that leaves a real void.

Then there's the "D". For people to be touting this D as the closest thing since the 2000 D is laughable, IMO. The 2000 D was what it was because of Ray Lewis and Sam Adams and Boulware and others. AND the defensive coordinator was light years beyond Dean Pees. Plus, you've got Jimmy Smith who is so injury prone I'll believe it when I see it that he plays all 16 games. In 2000, you KNEW who the leader of the D was. Who is it now? I honestly couldn't fathom a guess.

Then you've got John Harbaugh's game day management disasters. Clock management. Time out management. When to go for it on 4th and when not to. IMO he has single-handedly lost games all by himself, and not just one or two.

Then you've got the undisciplined penalties that have plagued this team for as far back as I can remember. Even back to the Billick/Rex days. And not much has changed. 111 yards of penalties in the first half of one of this year's preseason games. And that's not an exception around here; it's the rule.

So taking all of that into consideration, I would tend to side with a "poster who shall remain nameless" with whom I've been privately PM'ing behind the scenes who believes this year is a wash and is essentially part of an undeclared rebuilding process where this year was focused on defense and next year will be focused on offense. In any other organization I would agree with that and really have no problem with that. But in 20 years Ozzie Newsome has never demonstrated any capacity to put together a consistent, year to year O-line. He's never drafted a legitimate #1 wide receiver. His tight end drafts have been hit and miss. He passed on O J Howard to bring in Humphrey, despite a number of other DBs who were available. So to believe he's suddenly going to "get it" next year and complete the rebuilding process is beyond my reach. He's already sunk too many resources in the D for that to happen.

But I do agree with that poster that this season is, essentially, even with Joe, over before it  starts. There's simply too much of a gap between the O and the D. Joe's back is a major concern yet the Ravens did nothing to shore up the horrible QB waiting in the wings. And did I mention the inordinate number of injuries that this team sustains? It's not an excuse; it's an epidemic. Still, despite all that, given the watered down nature of the league along with whatever improvements were made to the D, and factoring in Tucker, the W/L record with Joe playing 16 games should still be no worse than 7-9 or 8-8. And with some luck maybe 9-7. But I'm not sure 9-7 will be good enough to "earn" a WC spot. We'll see. Stranger things HAVE happened, but that's not to say it will happen.

Just my 2 cents.

 

Edited by OriginalColtsFan

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13 hours ago, OriginalColtsFan said:

And did I mention the inordinate number of injuries that this team sustains? It's not an excuse; it's an epidemic.

 

 

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14 hours ago, OriginalColtsFan said:

And because of that O-line I'm not sure if Maclin is going to help all that much. The type of receiver that would help is a go-to slot receiver who can catch a short quick developing slant pass and take it to the house. I don't believe Maclin is that guy. And the O-line will not provide the necessary time to work Maclin into the program the way he did in the other places he played where he was the deep threat. So that leaves a real void.

LOL. Wrong.

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On ‎9‎/‎8‎/‎2017 at 4:28 PM, johnpolitics said:

I only see 7 wins: 3-3 in the division, 2-2 vs. the NFC Central, Jacksonville and Miami. You can have a great defense but that only works well if the offense wins the time of possession battle. IE- Giants/Bills Super Bowl. 

How'd I miss this post!! That fact is the most overlooked and under rated fact of football life. If anybody ever needs a good example (best example I've ever seen) look no further than the 2000 Ravens D. That offense never gets the credit due when it comes to the 2000 team. Just ask the 2 fat guys in the middle of that defensive line. Ray should by them a car, they should buy Jamaal Lewis a car, and Jamaal Lewis should by the O-Line a car. It shows how much of a team sport football is. And in my opinion, the greatest game in the world. The 2000 Team had a record breaking defense, thanks to the offense finishing #1 in T.O.P. And it all started up front. When our fat guys, beat their fat guys, we win. Dang, I miss it.

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2 minutes ago, mrdeltoid said:

How'd I miss this post!! That fact is the most overlooked and under rated fact of football life. If anybody ever needs a good example (best example I've ever seen) look no further than the 2000 Ravens D. That offense never gets the credit due when it comes to the 2000 team. Just ask the 2 fat guys in the middle of that defensive line. Ray should by them a car, they should buy Jamaal Lewis a car, and Jamaal Lewis should by the O-Line a car. It shows how much of a team sport football is. And in my opinion, the greatest game in the world. The 2000 Team had a record breaking defense, thanks to the offense finishing #1 in T.O.P. And it all started up front. When our fat guys, beat their fat guys, we win. Dang, I miss it.

I was at the game today. Flat as hell. I'd be surprised at this point if they won 7. 

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3 minutes ago, johnpolitics said:

I was at the game today. Flat as hell. I'd be surprised at this point if they won 7. 

I had them 4-12 Worst case, 6-10 best case. We're still a year away I think to be competitive. How'd Stanley look?

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On 8/25/2017 at 0:06 PM, mrdeltoid said:

How is the defense "significantly improved?

Clearly...it's not.

;)

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6 hours ago, mrdeltoid said:

I had them 4-12 Worst case, 6-10 best case. We're still a year away I think to be competitive. How'd Stanley look?

Well, at one point he was carried off the field, but he did return later. It was hard to say. At times it looked as if there was decent enough pass pro, then at other times it was like the Red Sea parted. I didn't have the patience to go back and look play by play. It's just not worth it at this point.

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And I was sure I'd posted "7-9" but I didn't. Boab did. So I'll post it now: 7-9.

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10 hours ago, mrdeltoid said:

I had them 4-12 Worst case, 6-10 best case. We're still a year away I think to be competitive. How'd Stanley look?

I don't see them any better next year.

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I was actually trying to be optimistic about their record.  I think I said 10-6 or something like that.  Oh well, live and learn, right? 

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On 8/25/2017 at 10:00 AM, bmore_ken said:

10-6 if Joe starts week 1 100% healthy

8-8 if Joe starts week 1 not 100% like last year

 

At this point neither of these look possible. 

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3 hours ago, Bawlmerian said:

I don't see them any better next year.

I don't either. If, by some miracle, they'd somehow managed to turn into the reincarnation of the 2000 D, that would be one thing. But they didn't. And I'm not even sure from what I've seen so far that their D this year is even as good as their D last year. Also, from what I've seen over the past 16 draft years, they're not capable of significantly improving the offense at all. So this team is years away from improving. But we'll see.

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On 9/8/2017 at 8:46 PM, johnpolitics said:

Every year people say "This is the year the Browns are for real." I'll wait for real. They just have bad karma. 

 

On 9/9/2017 at 7:08 AM, bmore_ken said:

Yep. Literally every season at least one poster posts that and the Browns immediately procede to be who they are. 

And the Browns are.......who they've always been to the tune of 0-4. At least I called that one accurately :D

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18 hours ago, OriginalColtsFan said:

Well, at one point he was carried off the field, but he did return later. It was hard to say. At times it looked as if there was decent enough pass pro, then at other times it was like the Red Sea parted. I didn't have the patience to go back and look play by play. It's just not worth it at this point.

Scheme can only compensate for so much with no talent. We could be 2 years away from a competitive depth chart. ugh

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11 minutes ago, mrdeltoid said:

Scheme can only compensate for so much with no talent. We could be 2 years away from a competitive depth chart. ugh

Any way you slice it...it's just not looking good. I think what will compound the O-line situation is that it's a league-wide problem. Heck, look at the Cowboys. Last year they were among the best when it came to their O-line. They lost 2 players, and now they're struggling. The Ravens basically have ONE solid O-lineman in Yanda. THAT'S IT. How in the world is that going to be fixed any time soon?

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1 hour ago, OriginalColtsFan said:

Any way you slice it...it's just not looking good. I think what will compound the O-line situation is that it's a league-wide problem. Heck, look at the Cowboys. Last year they were among the best when it came to their O-line. They lost 2 players, and now they're struggling. The Ravens basically have ONE solid O-lineman in Yanda. THAT'S IT. How in the world is that going to be fixed any time soon?

By simplifying everything and hoping for the best.  That's about all they have at this point.  

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