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Thirteen

Free Agency

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Every year MLB Trade Rumors does their ranking of free agents and their predictions of where they will end up and for how much.

Here are the two they have going to the Orioles.  They touched on all of the things the Orioles seem to love in a player:

Quote

40.  Carlos Gonzalez – Orioles.  One year, $12MM.  Gonzalez, 32, played nine years with the Rockies.  He hit 211 home runs, finished third in the MVP voting in 2010, made three All-Star teams, and won three Gold Gloves.  CarGo is an accomplished former star, and he’s managed to shake some of his injury-prone reputation by playing 439 games over the last three years.  As recently as 2015-16, he was still an above average hitter, but this year he dipped to .262/.339/.423 in 534 plate appearances (good for an 87 wRC+).  Gonzalez is unable to hit left-handed pitching, and he’s been much worse away from Coors Field.  Over the past three years on the road against right-handed pitching, Gonzalez has hit .271/.338/.454 with a 108 wRC+, which seems like a good baseline for what he might be able to do for a new team.

46.  Jason Vargas – Orioles.  One year, $10MM.  Vargas, a veteran lefty starter, signed a four-year, $32MM deal with the Royals in November 2013.  He managed only 12 starts from 2015-16 due to Tommy John surgery.  After the first three months of the 2017 season, Vargas’ ERA sat at an unexpected 2.22 after 101 1/3 innings.  The correction was brutal after that, as Vargas posted a 6.66 ERA over his final 16 starts.  Vargas turns 35 in February, and between his age and rough finish, he might struggle to find a two-year deal despite decent overall numbers.

 

 

Edited by Thirteen

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Lol so true. Neither of these guys will have much of an impact if they sign.  Vargas can simply replace Miley in the rotation, Gonzales sounds like basically another Pedro Alvarez/ Trumbo one dimensional type guy. No thanks.

Hey Buckaroo and Dano that formula hasn't really worked in case you haven't been paying attention. Geniuses. 

Edited by BayAreaBmore

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Those are guys Buck and Dan would LOVE! Sign them NOW! :D

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5 hours ago, Thirteen said:

Every year MLB Trade Rumors does their ranking of free agents and their predictions of where they will end up and for how much.

Here are the two they have going to the Orioles.  They touched on all of the things the Orioles seem to love in a player:

Championship!

 

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1 hour ago, ncbirdfan said:

Championship!

 

If they don't sign  or trade for two decent starting pitchers this offseason, I'm done. I just can't handle another year where the same glaring need is ignored. 

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Vargas I could see taking a chance on, and if Cobb is available for four years and $48 million, I'd be in on that one as well.

Another guy the Orioles should pursue is Tyler Chatwood of Colorado. His overall numbers this past season weren't great, but as MASN's Steve Melewski recently pointed out, he's a different pitcher away from Coors. His road ERA the past two years was 2.57, fifth-best in the National League.

Edited by mdrunning

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On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2017 at 11:53 PM, mdrunning said:

Vargas I could see taking a chance on, and if Cobb is available for four years and $48 million, I'd be in on that one as well.

Another guy the Orioles should pursue is Tyler Chatwood of Colorado. His overall numbers this past season weren't great, but as MASN's Steve Melewski recently pointed out, he's a different pitcher away from Coors. His road ERA the past two years was 2.57, fifth-best in the National League.

I agree with this trio.  As you noted in another post, we have around 40mil to spend.  If mlbtraderumors is close on their estimates, we could get all three for 30 mil/yr.  I actually think it would be 35mil.  Cobb is a 15mil/yr guy and Chatwood may get a little more.  Either way, we got enough cash to revamp the rotation in a big way with these 3 guys. They would fit well with Bundy and Gaus.  And then you would have Castillo, Ynoa and Asher for some decent depth. Note to Buck: for gods sake give it up on Wright being a starter.

Also, I'm shocked Tillman is expected to get 10mil.  Thanks for the memories Tilly.  You be gone. There was a great analysis by Melewski I think showing Tillman's avg velocity on his 4 seam and 2 seam fastball dropped 1 to 1.5 mph in 2017 vs 2016.  And hitters just ate it up hitting well over.300.  I'm not risking close to ten mil we can fix this guy.

I'd also love to see DD try and package up Brach and Trumbo in a trade package for an all round LH bat. Buck would never go for that though.

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If the MASN propaganda machine is correct, the O's will be focusing on pitching retreads like Vargas and Cashner that they can get on short 2 year deals.  Whoopee!  

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2 hours ago, CROUSEMAN said:

If the MASN propaganda machine is correct, the O's will be focusing on pitching retreads like Vargas and Cashner that they can get on short 2 year deals.  Whoopee!  

Cobb is expected to get a 4 yr deal for $48M. If Pete can't bring himself to spend $12/yr on a solid #2 pitcher, then just reserve your seat in the ALe cellar 

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Anybody snatch up Ubaldo yet?

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3 hours ago, CROUSEMAN said:

If the MASN propaganda machine is correct, the O's will be focusing on pitching retreads like Vargas and Cashner that they can get on short 2 year deals.  Whoopee!  

Cashner is clearly a case of a pitcher outperforming his peripherals. It's hard to imagine his ERA staying below 3.50 another season, mainly because his strikeouts per nine was only 4.64, the lowest of any American League qualifier. Interestingly, his numbers are at least somewhat similar to Yovani Gallardo's last season in Texas, so the buyer best beware.

 

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1 hour ago, Norman said:

Anybody snatch up Ubaldo yet?

Where is he projected to go?

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15 minutes ago, pitbull said:

Where is he projected to go?

The Long Island Ducks

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2 minutes ago, Rob said:

The Long Island Ducks

There's always the Mets!

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On 11/7/2017 at 10:24 AM, CROUSEMAN said:

If the MASN propaganda machine is correct, the O's will be focusing on pitching retreads like Vargas and Cashner that they can get on short 2 year deals.  Whoopee!  

What’s sad is they would both be upgrades over who they would replace.

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Cashner's stats tell me he would be wise to steer clear of the AL east. And DD should steer clear of Cashner.

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1 hour ago, weird-O said:

Cashner's stats tell me he would be wise to steer clear of the AL east. And DD should steer clear of Cashner.

...which means he will be signed by the Orioles. ;)

 

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19 hours ago, weird-O said:

Cashner's stats tell me he would be wise to steer clear of the AL east. And DD should steer clear of Cashner.

Grain of salt alert. Keith Law agrees with you.  He basically has both Cashner and Vargas in the mid 30s of his top 50 list and describes both as only worthy of 1 year deals.  He expects both to most likely implode.  Vargas was flat out horrible the second half last year stat wise  No idea how he ever won 18. Cashner's K rate was horrible so pitching to contact in Camden not a good idea.  Pass and pass.  BTW, he has Chacin and Garcia rated much higher.

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1 hour ago, CROUSEMAN said:

Grain of salt alert. Keith Law agrees with you.  He basically has both Cashner and Vargas in the mid 30s of his top 50 list and describes both as only worthy of 1 year deals.  He expects both to most likely implode.  Vargas was flat out horrible the second half last year stat wise  No idea how he ever won 18. Cashner's K rate was horrible so pitching to contact in Camden not a good idea.  Pass and pass.  BTW, he has Chacin and Garcia rated much higher.

Get used to Buck talking about 'Cashy' and 'Vargy'.

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On ‎11‎/‎7‎/‎2017 at 0:41 PM, weird-O said:

Cobb is expected to get a 4 yr deal for $48M. If Pete can't bring himself to spend $12/yr on a solid #2 pitcher, then just reserve your seat in the ALe cellar 

I agree with this assessment, but I just cant see Cobb going this cheap.  Seems like the market for this type of pitcher is more in the 56-60mil range.  Think Santana and he had a higher draft pick attached.  Read that the Cubs have him targeted as their number 1 choice to replace Arrietta.  And Madden knows Cobb quite well from Tampa.  Pencil in Cobb to the Cubs.  We cant compete with playing for Joe Madden plus Cubs will pay market rate.   O's are second to the Rockies in being a wasteland for starting pitchers!!  

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33 minutes ago, CROUSEMAN said:

I agree with this assessment, but I just cant see Cobb going this cheap.  Seems like the market for this type of pitcher is more in the 56-60mil range.  Think Santana and he had a higher draft pick attached.  Read that the Cubs have him targeted as their number 1 choice to replace Arrietta.  And Madden knows Cobb quite well from Tampa.  Pencil in Cobb to the Cubs.  We cant compete with playing for Joe Madden plus Cubs will pay market rate.   O's are second to the Rockies in being a wasteland for starting pitchers!!  

All good points. I also thought that Cobb's projected price was low. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's the potential health related performance issues? And if Joe wants him in Chi, I can't imagine he'd go anywhere else.  

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14 hours ago, weird-O said:

All good points. I also thought that Cobb's projected price was low. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's the potential health related performance issues? And if Joe wants him in Chi, I can't imagine he'd go anywhere else.  

This year's free-agent crop isn't exactly overflowing with viable starting pitchers, which is naturally going to drive up the price for those who are available. The downside to Cobb, of course, is the 2015 Tommy John surgery and the fact that he's never come close to pitching 200 innings in a single season.

Still, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Cobb sign a contract in the neighborhood of five years and close to $100 million. Such is the law of supply and demand.

 

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6 hours ago, mdrunning said:

This year's free-agent crop isn't exactly overflowing with viable starting pitchers, which is naturally going to drive up the price for those who are available. The downside to Cobb, of course, is the 2015 Tommy John surgery and the fact that he's never come close to pitching 200 innings in a single season.

Still, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Cobb sign a contract in the neighborhood of five years and close to $100 million. Such is the law of supply and demand.

 

I'll take "why the O's won't sign him" for 200 Alex. 

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