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ESPN: Will the Orioles go all in or fold?

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http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21345240/al-east-offseason-preview-red-sox-find-bat-counter-aaron-judge

Baltimore Orioles: Will they go all-in, or fold?

2017 record: 75-87
2018 World Series odds: 60-1
Vote: What should the Orioles do this offseason?

That's the prodigious question facing the Baltimore Orioles this winter.

Given the way the O's have behaved at the trade deadline in recent years -- they're routinely a seller in buyer's clothing -- folding seems unlikely. What's more, GM Dan Duquette is in the final year of his contract (as is skipper Buck Showalter), and going all-in makes for a much sexier swan song than going all "Hamilton" and planting seeds in a garden you never get to see.

So as much sense as it makes for Baltimore to flip superstar Manny Machado, who becomes a free agent in a year, for lots of prospects this offseason, it probably won't happen (dealing closer Zach Britton seems slightly more likely given the team's bullpen depth). Just like Duquette landing a couple of blue-chip starting pitchers in free agency probably won't happen either. Instead, he'll raid the clearance rack one last time. If those bargains pan out and the Birds are lucky enough to be sniffing their fourth playoff appearance in four even years come July, it'll be buy time once again. If not, Duquette had better start planting. -- Eddie Matz

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There's no reason for the lame duck brain trust to punt. If they didn't do it last deadline, they aren't about to do it this winter. 

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They're going to pretend to be going all in, but in the end, we all know it's gonna be the SSDY.

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Big Dan has been quoted saying he is looking for “trade partners.” Question, who, specifically are his trading chips?

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1 hour ago, pitbull said:

Big Dan has been quoted saying he is looking for “trade partners.” Question, who, specifically are his trading chips?

I don't know..He's got quite a few "Buffalo Chips" to deal...

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I see very little hope that 2018 turns out well, either in the standings or in the outlook for the future.

Edited by Mr. Buzzcut

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Very little will be done until nearly spring training. Then they'll pick up a few mediocre players at the Scratch & Dent store. They'll struggle all 2018 and miss the post-season. Buck will retire and Dan will move on or retire, having set the stage for years of bad to mediocre play. They'll get two draft picks for losing Zach and Manny in free agency. What happens after that depends on whether Peter is still in the picture.

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14 hours ago, pitbull said:

Big Dan has been quoted saying he is looking for “trade partners.” Question, who, specifically are his trading chips?

Same as last year, Britton and Brach.  Except both have less value.  Way less!   I'd sure like to see DD try and package one of these guys in a deal to get rid of Trumbo. With the emergence of Mancini, Trumbo is an extra part we really don't need.  Also, batting him and Davis back to back killed the offense all year.  St Louis is looking for a closer and a power bat.  Anyone have any interest in taking Fowler back on a salary dump and sticking him in RF??

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3 hours ago, CROUSEMAN said:

Same as last year, Britton and Brach.  Except both have less value.  Way less!   I'd sure like to see DD try and package one of these guys in a deal to get rid of Trumbo. With the emergence of Mancini, Trumbo is an extra part we really don't need.  Also, batting him and Davis back to back killed the offense all year.  St Louis is looking for a closer and a power bat.  Anyone have any interest in taking Fowler back on a salary dump and sticking him in RF??

Trumbo isn't suited for the NL. Personally, I wouldn't take Fowler in the deal. The O's look well stocked with OFers. They need pitching, and a replacement for Manny. 

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I don't see anyone wanting Trumbo unless the Orioles are responsible for a good bit of his salary, and I don't see Peter signing off on that.

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18 minutes ago, Evil Yoda said:

I don't see anyone wanting Trumbo unless the Orioles are responsible for a good bit of his salary, and I don't see Peter signing off on that.

If they want a quality prospect in return, they'll have to eat $5-6M. His salary isn't crazy bloated. I think, if the O's were just looking to get him off the books, they could get someone to take him and his full salary. 

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25 minutes ago, weird-O said:

If they want a quality prospect in return, they'll have to eat $5-6M. His salary isn't crazy bloated. I think, if the O's were just looking to get him off the books, they could get someone to take him and his full salary. 

Angelos' past history suggest that he does not like "wasting" money. That's how he would regard sending Trumbo anywhere that didn't take his salary. Heck, you pointed this out (more or less) in connection with his attitude towards pitching.

Angelos has basically given me no indication that winning matters to him in any significant way. I very much doubt that the future will be any different than the past.

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The O's are in the unenviable position of needing other teams to do something stupid.

Well done!

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Problem with Trumbo is that his value is lower now than it was when the Orioles got him for a third-string catcher.

The upside is here is Trumbo had his career year at age 30. The downside is he had his worst year at age 31. At this point, the best to hope for is a bounce back year, and not the beginning of a steep decline. If Trumbo can perform more in line to his career norms next season, that would be the best time to try and move him. 

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15 hours ago, Evil Yoda said:

Angelos' past history suggest that he does not like "wasting" money. That's how he would regard sending Trumbo anywhere that didn't take his salary. Heck, you pointed this out (more or less) in connection with his attitude towards pitching.

Angelos has basically given me no indication that winning matters to him in any significant way. I very much doubt that the future will be any different than the past.

I was just speaking in hypotheticals. If I was DD, and trying to make a deal, in which the O's send MT and $6M to get a good prospect, I would sell Pete on the idea that he should simply look at it as being on par with a signing bonus for the prospect you're acquiring. Plus, you're saving the rest of the Trumbo money. 

As for your last sentence, I'm sure most of Birdland agrees with you. I consider the recent string of competitive seasons to be a happy accident that occurred in spite of Pete.    

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19 hours ago, weird-O said:

Trumbo isn't suited for the NL. Personally, I wouldn't take Fowler in the deal. The O's look well stocked with OFers. They need pitching, and a replacement for Manny. 

Agree on Fowler.  Although he had another very solid year, he has more money and year left (4ys/67mil) than I thought.  I thought he had like 3yr/42mil left.  

Also, I used to think same about Trumbo, only as an AL guy.  But the numbers say loud and clear he is a terrible full time DH.  He hits much, much better when playing in the field.  So he would be fine in the NL as a slightly below average first baseman.  Or in the AL for that matter.  If any one is still scratching their head on why he sucked this past year, he DH'd most of the time vs 2016 when he played in RF the majority of the time.  The guy is a butcher in the OF, so first base is his only position.  Thus we need to trade him if possible. Again, packaging him with Brach and see what they will bring.  Some kind of pitching and a LH hitting OF are the needs.

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1 hour ago, weird-O said:

I was just speaking in hypotheticals. If I was DD, and trying to make a deal, in which the O's send MT and $6M to get a good prospect, I would sell Pete on the idea that he should simply look at it as being on par with a signing bonus for the prospect you're acquiring. Plus, you're saving the rest of the Trumbo money. 

As for your last sentence, I'm sure most of Birdland agrees with you. I consider the recent string of competitive seasons to be a happy accident that occurred in spite of Pete.    

I'm following your logic, that's why I suggested throwing in Brach as a sweetner to take MT and give back a decent prospect or young MLB ready player.  If the other team has a salary they want to dump we could take that as long as its short term.  I just don't think Pete would cover any of MT's salary in a deal.

Again, the O's were very short sighted in the Trumbo signing.  Signed the guy to be a full time DH and the guy had no real good track record of filling that role.  Brilliant, just brilliant.

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3 hours ago, CROUSEMAN said:

Agree on Fowler.  Although he had another very solid year, he has more money and year left (4ys/67mil) than I thought.  I thought he had like 3yr/42mil left.  

Also, I used to think same about Trumbo, only as an AL guy.  But the numbers say loud and clear he is a terrible full time DH.  He hits much, much better when playing in the field.  So he would be fine in the NL as a slightly below average first baseman.  Or in the AL for that matter.  If any one is still scratching their head on why he sucked this past year, he DH'd most of the time vs 2016 when he played in RF the majority of the time.  The guy is a butcher in the OF, so first base is his only position.  Thus we need to trade him if possible. Again, packaging him with Brach and see what they will bring.  Some kind of pitching and a LH hitting OF are the needs.

That's interesting to hear that Trumbo's bat suffers from strictly DHing. If I recall correctly, Davis has that same problem. When Buck gave him 1B, he hit a whole other gear. 

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8 hours ago, weird-O said:

That's interesting to hear that Trumbo's bat suffers from strictly DHing. If I recall correctly, Davis has that same problem. When Buck gave him 1B, he hit a whole other gear. 

One of the masn guys had it in a column and if I remember correctly, the numbers were pretty shocking. I'l try and find it. Yeah some guys just aren' good sitting around as a dh.

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On 11/20/2017 at 6:59 PM, Thirteen said:

They're going to pretend to be going all in, but in the end, we all know it's gonna be the SSDY.

yeap

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On 11/22/2017 at 9:58 PM, CROUSEMAN said:

One of the masn guys had it in a column and if I remember correctly, the numbers were pretty shocking. I'l try and find it. Yeah some guys just aren' good sitting around as a dh.

It should have been Trumbo or Davis. Not, Trumbo AND Davis

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I suspect MASN writes mostly what the Orioles PR department tells it to. Real hard-hitting journalists there. If they're writing this, it's part of a sales pitch. The team may be looking to deal Trumbo.

Edited by Evil Yoda

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Woo-hoo! Orioles grabbed 2013 17th round outfielder Jaycob Brugman from the A's for cash or a player to be named later! The rebuilding is picking up steam now! ;)

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On 11/21/2017 at 4:20 PM, Evil Yoda said:

Angelos has basically given me no indication that winning matters to him in any significant way. I very much doubt that the future will be any different than the past.

I would love to find that clip following the 2012 ALDS when Angelos declared the Orioles would be back every year (paraphrase).

The Front Office did nothing to upgrade the 2013 team, which missed the Playoffs. 2014 was the year, when the pitching staff exceeded expectations. But many people forget that Wieters was hurt all season and so was Machado. Davis also got suspended and missed the playoffs.

Naturally, instead of upgrading the team for 2015 and going “all-in,” Peter Angelos and Big Dan dismantled a division winner, letting Cruz and Markakis walk (by the way, how is that whole right field situation working out?).

The offense was one-dimensional and the pitching staff gradually regressed in 2016 while the Orioles barely qualified for a Wild Card spot. Naturally, Peter Angelos and Big Dan did nothing to upgrade the team over the offseason and the team fell to last place in 2017.

Poor poor Peter missed his window.

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2 hours ago, pitbull said:

Poor poor Peter missed his window.

He did. It's now very unlikely the team will do anything before he dies, given his age. I'd like to feel sorry for him, but this is the same thing he's given us fans for two decades and I just can't.

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