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bmorepunk

The Trump Recession is coming

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Yes, recession. I know this is one of those moments when people imagine the rules of economics have been suspended. The stock market races endlessly upward. Help-wanted signs paper shop windows. Economies around the world are in a rare period of simultaneous growth, and tax cuts have brightened corporate boardrooms from Portland, Maine, to Portland, Ore.

But a downward turn lies somewhere ahead, be it a recession, slump or, God forbid, crash. A necessary part of the energy of economic cycles comes from the ebbing of each wave.

History suggests that the next recession is not far off. The current expansion, though relatively weak, has been steady since June 2009, making this the third-longest upward climb on record. Juiced by the tax cut, the United States is on track to record 107 months without a recession in April, passing the boom of the 1960s in duration. That will leave only the decade-long, 120-month run in the 1990s — when the end of the Cold War met the rise of the Internet to create a Golden Age for the U.S. economy — to be beaten.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trump-recession-is-coming/2018/01/05/2c5f2142-f23f-11e7-b390-a36dc3fa2842_story.html

Von Drehle knows reality can come kicking at any moment. If we could just figure out exactly when, I can make a lot of money off it. Nearly three years left until election day, and things are riding high after growing significantly for the better part of a decade. The probability of the President getting on the other side of this without some serious negative economic event is getting worse for him every day.

 

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Agree Im moving into a larger percentage in cash do I can buy back in at a lower price after the drop.

Dollar cost averaging.

One reason if the Dems win one of these points they are after Trump with

It will kick the crap out of the market.

 

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1 hour ago, bmorepunk said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trump-recession-is-coming/2018/01/05/2c5f2142-f23f-11e7-b390-a36dc3fa2842_story.html

Von Drehle knows reality can come kicking at any moment. If we could just figure out exactly when, I can make a lot of money off it. Nearly three years left until election day, and things are riding high after growing significantly for the better part of a decade. The probability of the President getting on the other side of this without some serious negative economic event is getting worse for him every day.

 

So you want people to lose their jobs because you don’t like the president...nice. 

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13 minutes ago, Rocketwolf said:

Agree Im moving into a larger percentage in cash do I can buy back in at a lower price after the drop.

Dollar cost averaging.

One reason if the Dems win one of these points they are after Trump with

It will kick the crap out of the market.

 

Dollar cost averaging is systematically putting the same amount in monthly (for example). What you've described is timing the market. If you time it right, you'll nail it. If not, you may miss some gains, but at this time, I would not question your strategy. 

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1 hour ago, bmorepunk said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trump-recession-is-coming/2018/01/05/2c5f2142-f23f-11e7-b390-a36dc3fa2842_story.html

Von Drehle knows reality can come kicking at any moment. If we could just figure out exactly when, I can make a lot of money off it. Nearly three years left until election day, and things are riding high after growing significantly for the better part of a decade. The probability of the President getting on the other side of this without some serious negative economic event is getting worse for him every day.

 

Keep an eye on oil prices. They’re at about $60 a barrel now which is the highest in 2 years...

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3 minutes ago, soulflower said:

Keep an eye on oil prices. They’re at about $60 a barrel now which is the highest in 2 years...

Because of what's going on in Iran you think?

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1 hour ago, bmorepunk said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trump-recession-is-coming/2018/01/05/2c5f2142-f23f-11e7-b390-a36dc3fa2842_story.html

Von Drehle knows reality can come kicking at any moment. If we could just figure out exactly when, I can make a lot of money off it. Nearly three years left until election day, and things are riding high after growing significantly for the better part of a decade. The probability of the President getting on the other side of this without some serious negative economic event is getting worse for him every day.

 

LOL more hating from the usual sources. Short answer: no, it's not.

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3 hours ago, soulflower said:

Keep an eye on oil prices. They’re at about $60 a barrel now which is the highest in 2 years...

Oil at that price makes shale oil in the basin profitable and opening up the Atlantic and Arctic will keep a lid on prices...plus the Donald seems to have the Saudis in his back pocket so supply isn’t a concern.

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3 hours ago, Struds said:

Because of what's going on in Iran you think?

no, because of rising demand in the global economy and also OPEC's decision to slow production in order to boost prices.

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If a downturn is inevitable, is it fair to call it ‘Trump’s recession’?

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1 minute ago, Jimmy Jazz said:

If a downturn is inevitable, is it fair to call it ‘Trump’s recession’?

Well, when you consider that he pooh-poohed economic numbers when they came out under Obama and then trumpeted the same numbers that came out on his watch... It is not only fair, but fitting.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Joba said:

LOL more hating from the usual sources. Short answer: no, it's not.

Can we stick a pin in this one?

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4 hours ago, blowboatbethesda said:

There has never been a producing oil well off the Atlantic Continental Shelf , so don't get your hopes  up. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offshore_drilling_on_the_Atlantic_coast_of_the_United_States

 

Oh... having spent most of my summers growing up on the Jersey Shore, i think the decision to open up these waters to oil drilling while simultaneously reversing common sense safety precautions put in place after the industry collectively screwed the Pooch with Deep Water Horizon is a decision utterly striking for it’s brazen stupidity.

i would argue that the current tourism and fishery based economies dwarf anything that the oil industry could bring

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10 hours ago, Jimmy Jazz said:

If a downturn is inevitable, is it fair to call it ‘Trump’s recession’?

No. It will be amusing to see what the stable genius calls it.

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14 hours ago, Joba said:

LOL more hating from the usual sources. Short answer: no, it's not.

Recession not coming? Explain why not.

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33 minutes ago, ms maggie said:

Recession not coming? Explain why not.

It's not coming while President Trump is in office.

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Posted (edited)

3 minutes ago, Joba said:

It's not coming while President Trump is in office.

Ah, I see. So we're immune from the normal cadence of economic cycles while Trump is in office.

Well, he IS a stable genius...

Edited by ms maggie

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15 hours ago, RileyMartin said:

So you want people to lose their jobs because you don’t like the president...nice. 

Some are spiteful that way.

 

14 hours ago, Joba said:

LOL more hating from the usual sources. Short answer: no, it's not.

The same people who are so certain that it's coming were also certain that Trump was going to lose the election and, having been proved wrong, predicted he'd be impeached or otherwise removed from office at some point during the first year of his term. 

 

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16 hours ago, bmorepunk said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trump-recession-is-coming/2018/01/05/2c5f2142-f23f-11e7-b390-a36dc3fa2842_story.html

Von Drehle knows reality can come kicking at any moment. If we could just figure out exactly when, I can make a lot of money off it. Nearly three years left until election day, and things are riding high after growing significantly for the better part of a decade. The probability of the President getting on the other side of this without some serious negative economic event is getting worse for him every day.

 

Von Drehle knows a lot about reality.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-havent-been-this-confident-since--2016/2017/12/29/43641dfe-ecd4-11e7-b698-91d4e35920a3_story.html?utm_term=.09a23782ebe0

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Democrats haven't been this confident since--2016!

 

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8 hours ago, JoyinMudville said:

Well, when you consider that he pooh-poohed economic numbers when they came out under Obama and then trumpeted the same numbers that came out on his watch... It is not only fair, but fitting.

 

 

He had help from the Media

2017 was the weakest year for job growth since 2011 but you wouldn’t know based on how the media covered the jobs numbers under Trump compared to Obama...

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Economic cycles go through periods of recession no matter who is in office. When a Republican is in office the Democrats blame the President, and vice versa when a Democrat is in office the same. Pretty funny! Luckily the economy is doing pretty well right now.

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22 hours ago, Struds said:

Dollar cost averaging is systematically putting the same amount in monthly (for example). What you've described is timing the market. If you time it right, you'll nail it. If not, you may miss some gains, but at this time, I would not question your strategy. 

In this case the money going back in (as dollar cost averaging) wouldn't start until the market does its correction.

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8 hours ago, Joba said:

It's not coming while President Trump is in office.

No matter your politics, at this time that is a very foolish claim.

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23 hours ago, Struds said:

Dollar cost averaging is systematically putting the same amount in monthly (for example). What you've described is timing the market. If you time it right, you'll nail it. If not, you may miss some gains, but at this time, I would not question your strategy. 

yea, I missed some upside by pulling back some a couple months ago but at my age, I cannot weather a 2008 again. Better to protect what I have and buy back in on the dips. 

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