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pitbull

Big Dan Duquette on starting pitching: “I believe we can still address it.”

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1 hour ago, Evil Yoda said:

This guy looks like a hot mess if the Wikipedia article about him is accurate. Which, of course, is a big if.

I didn't know Lynn was built more like a pulling guard than a major league pitcher, but even though he'd certainly be a welcome improvement, what concerns me is the transition from the NL to the AL. Other than Pedro Martinez, I can't think of many examples of pitchers who were better once they moved to the American League.

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11 hours ago, mdrunning said:

I didn't know Lynn was built more like a pulling guard than a major league pitcher, but even though he'd certainly be a welcome improvement, what concerns me is the transition from the NL to the AL. Other than Pedro Martinez, I can't think of many examples of pitchers who were better once they moved to the American League.

Seems like an overpay at 3yr.57mil.  Cobb is the man to get. But at this point I'd take Lynn considering the O's are talking up Wright as a starter this year.  Fools gold for the 4th straight year.

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13 minutes ago, CROUSEMAN said:

Seems like an overpay at 3yr.57mil.  Cobb is the man to get. But at this point I'd take Lynn considering the O's are talking up Wright as a starter this year.  Fools gold for the 4th straight year.

Haven't seen much on Cobb lately. Many assumed he would head to the Cubs with Maddon there. How much is he looking for .??

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3 minutes ago, stevez51 said:

Haven't seen much on Cobb lately. Many assumed he would head to the Cubs with Maddon there. How much is he looking for .??

Last I saw he was down to asking for 4yr/70mil.  Seems like the O's will only go for 3 years on pitchers now that the UJ and O'Day deals have flubbed.

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6 minutes ago, CROUSEMAN said:

Last I saw he was down to asking for 4yr/70mil.  Seems like the O's will only go for 3 years on pitchers now that the UJ and O'Day deals have flubbed.

Then maybe he's waiting for the Cubs to bite.

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4 hours ago, CROUSEMAN said:

Last I saw he was down to asking for 4yr/70mil.  Seems like the O's will only go for 3 years on pitchers now that the UJ and O'Day deals have flubbed.

mdrunning believes this is coming from a new wave of management who are analyzing everything rather than going with their gut. If they're all using the same basic model, that could explain why they've concluded more or less simultaneously that long contracts are a poor idea.

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28 minutes ago, Evil Yoda said:

mdrunning believes this is coming from a new wave of management who are analyzing everything rather than going with their gut. If they're all using the same basic model, that could explain why they've concluded more or less simultaneously that long contracts are a poor idea.

What I also think can't be overlooked is the recent success of the Cubs and the Astros and other teams trying to emulate those models. What they both did was trade anything of value to stockpile young players. By conceding competitiveness for several seasons, they were also in a more advantageous in the draft and had first crack at the best amateurs in the draft. Carlos Correa was the first overall pick in the 2012 draft, while Kris Bryant was No. 2 in 2013 (after the Astros passed on him at No. 1). 

I think there's a greater acceptance now, both by management and fans alike, of sucking for a period of time, because of the Astros and Cubs. Whether you agree with that approach or not, the truth is that it worked, and now I think other teams are using those models as paragons for future success rather than continuously trying to fix their clubs via the free-agent quick fix.

That also puts downward pressure on the free-agent market because teams in full-blown rebuild mode are not going to be pursuing pricey free agents. As the Astros demonstrated with Justin Verlander last season, it's better to take on a high-priced veteran well into his contract rather than sign him as a free agent and assume all the risk from the outset. Verlander is still due some $56 million on his contract, but only over a two-year term. Even if he declines this season or next, the Astros won't be handcuffed long-term by a contract they don't want and can't move. Other teams, I'm sure, will certainly take notice.

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Under this ownership group, the O's have never known how to be good at winning, or losing. No matter how bad they were, over that 14 year stretch, they always seem to make pointless moves that did little more than gain a few additional wins, that did nothing more than drop them back a few slots, in the draft. Add in MacPhail's horrid track record with top 10 draft picks, and you have the Orioles.

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1 hour ago, mdrunning said:

I think there's a greater acceptance now, both by management and fans alike, of sucking for a period of time, because of the Astros and Cubs.

How does the Orioles acceptance of sucking forever fit into this model? :)

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2 hours ago, weird-O said:

Under this ownership group, the O's have never known how to be good at winning, or losing. No matter how bad they were, over that 14 year stretch, they always seem to make pointless moves that did little more than gain a few additional wins, that did nothing more than drop them back a few slots, in the draft. Add in MacPhail's horrid track record with top 10 draft picks, and you have the Orioles.

Not finishing with the worst record was the goal.

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48 minutes ago, Thirteen said:

Not finishing with the worst record was the goal.

Yep

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Angelos has taken the team from record attendance to "keep the cameras focused on the lower deck. Send the ushers upstairs to offer people free upgrades". :)

Edited by Evil Yoda

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For some reason, there's a lot of Lance Lynn - Orioles chatter. O's are said to be offering 3 yrs $57M. Lynn wants 4 yrs. Rumor is, Pete is drawing a line in the sand, no 4 yr deals to pitchers. This is being attributed to our good friend Ubaldo. He sucked so bad, Pete's back to being FA gun shy. 

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32 minutes ago, weird-O said:

For some reason, there's a lot of Lance Lynn - Orioles chatter. O's are said to be offering 3 yrs $57M. Lynn wants 4 yrs. Rumor is, Pete is drawing a line in the sand, no 4 yr deals to pitchers. This is being attributed to our good friend Ubaldo. He sucked so bad, Pete's back to being FA gun shy. 

Go read Lynn's wikipedia article. He looks like a hot mess if it's accurate.

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On 2/9/2018 at 0:34 PM, Evil Yoda said:

Go read Lynn's wikipedia article. He looks like a hot mess if it's accurate.

The only thing I know about Lynn is there are better pitchers still available 

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4 minutes ago, bmore_ken said:

The only thing I know about Lynn is there are better pitchers still available 

Not at the price we're willing to pay.

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On 2/8/2018 at 5:19 PM, Evil Yoda said:

Angelos has taken the team from record attendance to "keep the cameras focused on the lower deck. Send the ushers upstairs to offer people free upgrades". :)

I guarantee you that does not happen. People still get turned away

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15 hours ago, bmore_ken said:

The only thing I know about Lynn is there are better pitchers still available 

 

14 hours ago, Pickle20 said:

Not at the price we're willing to pay.

Looking at the "current" 3-5, Lynn would be a major upgrade.

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5 minutes ago, pitbull said:

$19 million for Lance Lynn?

Sticker Shock. When I first heard that figure, I was like :o. But that's the going rate for a mid to back of the rotation pitcher.

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44 minutes ago, pitbull said:

$19 million for Lance Lynn?

Full season of Mike Wright?  :o

That does seem expensive.

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39 minutes ago, weird-O said:

Sticker Shock. When I first heard that figure, I was like :o. But that's the going rate for a mid to back of the rotation pitcher.

This is an interesting debate.  The market says a TOR starter like Darvish is worth 21-22 mil/yr.  To me , Lynn is like a 2-3 type starter.  So I have him rated a tick higher than you do. Even so, compared to Darvish he seems like a 16 mil/yr guy.  I think the 19mil comes from a higher AAV because the O's won't go 4 yrs.  They are basically trading a 4th year in order to save 7 or 8 million, IMO.  If they had the same payroll as last year they could easily fit both Lynn and Cobb's AAV under the 165mil.  Its the 4th year of the contract that has the O's bound up.  

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I'd go 3 years for Lynn with an incentive option for a 4th year that would likely be picked up.

The Orioles also need to embrace opt outs. So far they've been stubborn with that like many other things all the other teams are doing. Way behind as always.

Give Lynn an opt out after 2 years so when we suck, he can leave.

Edited by Pickle20

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12 minutes ago, Pickle20 said:

I'd go 3 years for Lynn with an incentive option for a 4th year that would likely be picked up.

The Orioles also need to embrace opt outs. So far they've been stubborn with that like many other things all the other teams are doing. Way behind as always.

Give Lynn an opt out after 2 years so when we suck, he can leave.

In principle, I agree with the O's. If I sign a player to a 5 yr deal, with an opt out after 2 yrs, then I really only signed him to a 2 yr deal, that he can extend, if he has declined, and no other team wants him at that point. How is that good for my business? 

It's interesting how the tables have almost totally shifted though. Where the teams once owned a player through a series of 1 yr contracts that extended in perpetuity, now the players are getting long term security, with no obligation to fulfill their end of the contract, unless it's in their best interest to do so. I assume this will eventually develop into a world where all contracts have an annual opt out clause.   

Still, you can't become a dinosaur, you have to adapt. 

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I know the first day of ST isn't the end of the FA market, and moves can still be made. But, they only have 2 established starting pitchers, and they've made it clear that they won't go longer than 3 yrs for a starting pitcher. Which seriously diminishes the chances that they'll be able to add a starter that can have an impact. I realize I'm pessimistically skipping ahead. But, if this team opens the season with a rotation of KG, DB, and a cobbling of various minor league arms, the yard is going to be empty after opening day. 

For me, those few years of being competitive haven't erased that long span of losing. If Ownership thinks the fans' collective memory has been cleared, and reset, I think they're going to be unpleasantly surprised by the cold shoulder they receive.   

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