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soulflower

The Economy won’t save Republicans in 2018

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The President’s Job Approval is more predictive of Midterm performance than Economic performance

NBC News:

Abramowitz, the Emory political scientist, has created an election forecasting model which takes account of factors he has found most predictive of midterm results. One is how many seats the president's party has to defend; another is where it stands in polling on the "generic ballot" – a measure of party popularity that fluctuates in tandem with shifting presidential approval.

With Democrats now leading the generic ballot by nearly 8 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average, Abramowitz's model envisions a gain of 30 seats for President Trump's partisan opponents. That's six more seats than Democrats need to regain the majority.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/30/good-economy-might-not-bail-out-republicans-in-midterms-after-all.html

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They all know on some level that they can't coast on Obamas economy for much longer.

Trump is openly hoping for a major disaster, like 9-11 to do that.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-says-it-will-be-hard-to-unify-country-without-a-major-event

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/the-president-thinks-a-second-9-11-would-have-its-upsides.html

Edited by Calamari

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48 minutes ago, soulflower said:

The President’s Job Approval is more predictive of Midterm performance than Economic performance

NBC News:

Abramowitz, the Emory political scientist, has created an election forecasting model which takes account of factors he has found most predictive of midterm results. One is how many seats the president's party has to defend; another is where it stands in polling on the "generic ballot" – a measure of party popularity that fluctuates in tandem with shifting presidential approval.

With Democrats now leading the generic ballot by nearly 8 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average, Abramowitz's model envisions a gain of 30 seats for President Trump's partisan opponents. That's six more seats than Democrats need to regain the majority.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/30/good-economy-might-not-bail-out-republicans-in-midterms-after-all.html

So what are you going to do if all this happens and he works with the Dems ..

Would you quit the Dem party ..???

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1 minute ago, stevez51 said:

So what are you going to do if all this happens and he works with the Dems ..

Would you quit the Dem party ..???

They'll shriek at the sky like they are wont to increasingly do.

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10 minutes ago, Joba said:

They'll shriek at the sky like they are wont to increasingly do.

Great poast, Joba!

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1 hour ago, stevez51 said:

So what are you going to do if all this happens and he works with the Dems ..

Would you quit the Dem party ..???

I hope Trump works with Dems on some issues

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2 minutes ago, soulflower said:

I hope Trump works with Dems on some issues

It's going to have to work both ways.  More importantly than Trump, republicans in congress are going to have to work with democrats.  And at the same time, democrats are going to have to work with republicans.  Saying things are non-starters and poison pills on both sides does no good.  Both sides may have to swallow some things they don't want in order to get some things they want.  

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1 hour ago, soulflower said:

I hope Trump works with Dems on some issues

He may have no choice with the way the Nov election is shaping up. Then the question would be why would they help him.

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2 hours ago, Calamari said:

They all know on some level that they can't coast on Obamas economy for much longer.

Trump is openly hoping for a major disaster, like 9-11 to do that.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-says-it-will-be-hard-to-unify-country-without-a-major-event

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/the-president-thinks-a-second-9-11-would-have-its-upsides.html

Since the great recession it's been the Federal Reserve's economy. And soon with Trump's corporate tax cuts and a tax break for corporations who have billions in dollars overseas to bring the money back to the US we will see a Trump economy soon enough. 

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10 hours ago, flyboy56 said:

Since the great recession it's been the Federal Reserve's economy. And soon with Trump's corporate tax cuts and a tax break for corporations who have billions in dollars overseas to bring the money back to the US we will see a Trump economy soon enough. 

Well, his job numbers are worse than Obama's and we just fell short of his promised 3% annual growth.

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12 hours ago, Norman said:

Great poast, Joba!

Spoken like a true participant! 

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I think Democrats will have a tough time if the following happen.

1) Continued economic improvement.

2) Trump continues doing marginally better in terms of not saying anything crazy or getting bogged down in pointless disputes.

3) People see that despite Trump’s  many shortcomings, the country isn’t headed over a cliff.

4) Mueller’s report exonerates Trump of ‘collusion’.

I suspect all these things will happen.

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23 hours ago, Joba said:

LOL sour grapes.

 

22 hours ago, Joba said:

They'll shriek at the sky like they are wont to increasingly do.

 

10 hours ago, volperdinger said:

Spoken like a true participant! 

 

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22 minutes ago, Jimmy Jazz said:

I think Democrats will have a tough time if the following happen.

1) Continued economic improvement.

2) Trump continues doing marginally better in terms of not saying anything crazy or getting bogged down in pointless disputes.

3) People see that despite Trump’s  many shortcomings, the country isn’t headed over a cliff.

4) Mueller’s report exonerates Trump of ‘collusion’.

I suspect all these things will happen.

 

Many hope Trump doesn’t say crazy stuff anymore but if history predicts, it appears that isn’t in his DNA.

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20 minutes ago, Jimmy Jazz said:

I think Democrats will have a tough time if the following happen.

1) Continued economic improvement.

2) Trump continues doing marginally better in terms of not saying anything crazy or getting bogged down in pointless disputes.

3) People see that despite Trump’s  many shortcomings, the country isn’t headed over a cliff.

4) Mueller’s report exonerates Trump of ‘collusion’.

I suspect all these things will happen.

1. The economy will not continue to improve once the tax plan takes hold. It is a top-sided plan that benefits the top 3%. It also adds to the deficit even after fleecing the poor.

2. He might be able to do that, but his track record suggests otherwise.

3. That also could possibly happen, but not likely when the economy becomes less vibrant.

4. How Mueller can exonerate Trump with all the lying and obstruction is questionable.

 

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14 minutes ago, Jimmy Jazz said:

I think Democrats will have a tough time if the following happen.

1) Continued economic improvement.

2) Trump continues doing marginally better in terms of not saying anything crazy or getting bogged down in pointless disputes.

3) People see that despite Trump’s  many shortcomings, the country isn’t headed over a cliff.

4) Mueller’s report exonerates Trump of ‘collusion’.

I suspect all these things will happen.

1- The economy is complex. Some are doing well. Some are struggling. Most like myself are doing ok. I appreciate that Trump hasn’t tanked the economy but overall, it’s a very small part of why nearly 60% disapprove of Trump. As the link shows, Dems lost seats in Congress in the 90s when Clinton had a much stronger economy than we have today. 

2- Trump will be Trump. He’s going to continue to say crazy things and try to obstruct the Mueller investigation. The only difference now is I think people are becoming numb to the crazy things he says on Twitter. That still isn’t going to help Republicans. 

3- The country isn’t headed off a cliff YET. His policy changes won’t affect us over night. But his attempts to cut investments in Research and Renewable energy will harm the US in the long-run. We will also see rapid Deficit growth if the economy doesn’t grow fast enough to justify his tax cut. 

4- Right now it’s looking like Mueller is focusing on Obstruction of Justice (do you watch the news?). Trump may avoid prosecution but I don’t think Mueller’s final report will paint Trump in a good light

———-

What Republicans could do to better their chances in 2018 is push for Bi-partisan solutions to Healthcare and DACA. 

But it’s not likely to happen. They are over-reaching just as Dems did 2009-2010. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, soulflower said:

1- The economy is complex. Some are doing well. Some are struggling. Most like myself are doing ok. I appreciate that Trump hasn’t tanked the economy but overall, it’s a very small part of why nearly 60% disapprove of Trump. As the link shows, Dems lost seats in Congress in the 90s when Clinton had a much stronger economy than we have today. 

2- Trump will be Trump. He’s going to continue to say crazy things and try to obstruct the Mueller investigation. The only difference now is I think people are becoming numb to the crazy things he says on Twitter. That still isn’t going to help Republicans. 

3- The country isn’t headed off a cliff YET. His policy changes won’t affect us over night. But his attempts to cut investments in Research and Renewable energy will harm the US in the long-run. We will also see rapid Deficit growth if the economy doesn’t grow fast enough to justify his tax cut. 

4- Right now it’s looking like Mueller is focusing on Obstruction of Justice (do you watch the news?). Trump may avoid prosecution but I don’t think Mueller’s final report will paint Trump in a good light

———-

What Republicans could do to better their chances in 2018 is push for Bi-partisan solutions to Healthcare and DACA. 

But it’s not likely to happen. They are over-reaching just as Dems did 2009-2010. 

 

 

Bi-partisanship is dead if even the "bi-partisan" committees can't even be bi-partisan.

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On 2/1/2018 at 8:06 AM, soulflower said:

1- The economy is complex. Some are doing well. Some are struggling. Most like myself are doing ok. I appreciate that Trump hasn’t tanked the economy but overall, it’s a very small part of why nearly 60% disapprove of Trump. As the link shows, Dems lost seats in Congress in the 90s when Clinton had a much stronger economy than we have today. 

2- Trump will be Trump. He’s going to continue to say crazy things and try to obstruct the Mueller investigation. The only difference now is I think people are becoming numb to the crazy things he says on Twitter. That still isn’t going to help Republicans. 

3- The country isn’t headed off a cliff YET. His policy changes won’t affect us over night. But his attempts to cut investments in Research and Renewable energy will harm the US in the long-run. We will also see rapid Deficit growth if the economy doesn’t grow fast enough to justify his tax cut. 

4- Right now it’s looking like Mueller is focusing on Obstruction of Justice (do you watch the news?). Trump may avoid prosecution but I don’t think Mueller’s final report will paint Trump in a good light

———-

What Republicans could do to better their chances in 2018 is push for Bi-partisan solutions to Healthcare and DACA. 

But it’s not likely to happen. They are over-reaching just as Dems did 2009-2010.

It is complex but I think more people feel good about the economy now than they did 1.5 years ago. That may not be rational but that doesn't mean it's not real. '94 was a dramatic realignment of the outdated political paradigm that had long held sway in the US. That's not going to happen in '18.

Trump has been relatively subdued the last few months. Compare how he has behaved the last 3 months to his first 3 months. He's still a clown but it's not on the same level.

Renewable energy cuts and deficits aren't going to sink the country between now and November.

In the court of public opinion, Trump is going to walk on obstruction of a nonexistent crime. He will not look good but as long as there is enough countervailing nonsense (the MEMO!!!), he'll come away ok.

Right now I would guess Democrats lose a seat or 2 in the Senate and pick up 15-20 in the House.

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12 hours ago, Jimmy Jazz said:

It is complex but I think more people feel good about the economy now than they did 1.5 years ago. That may not be rational but that doesn't mean it's not real. '94 was a dramatic realignment of the outdated political paradigm that had long held sway in the US. That's not going to happen in '18.

Trump has been relatively subdued the last few months. Compare how he has behaved the last 3 months to his first 3 months. He's still a clown but it's not on the same level.

Renewable energy cuts and deficits aren't going to sink the country between now and November.

In the court of public opinion, Trump is going to walk on obstruction of a nonexistent crime. He will not look good but as long as there is enough countervailing nonsense (the MEMO!!!), he'll come away ok.

Right now I would guess Democrats lose a seat or 2 in the Senate and pick up 15-20 in the House.

I disagree with most of that simply because the Economy is already baked into Trump’s disapproval. 

Nearly 60% disapprove of Trump in spite of him Presiding over a relatively strong economy.

Hint: The economy is not why his disapproval is so high.

He inherited a strong economy. Polls show most people still give Obama credit for the state of the economy. So like I said, it’s complicated. 

I’m sure that partisanship plays a role in people’s views of the economy. Polls show Republicans feel better about the economy now that Trump is in office and Dems who aren’t wealthy generally feel the same about the economy as they did before Trump if not worse. I have seen some wealthy Dems credit Trump on the economy but they’re not the ones who will make a difference in November. 

Like I said, it’s complicated. 

 I do think the economy matters more in 2020, which will likely have a larger electorate and include more Middle of the Road type voters (like yourself). If the economy stays the same through 2020, Trump will be tough to beat. The same was true for Obama who was re-elected in 2012 despite Republicans being more enthusiastic than Democrats. 

But as far as midterms go, those electorates tend to be more Partisan and the Party out of power tends to have more enthusiasm to vote in Midterm elections. Turnout overall in Midterm elections tends to be around 30-40%. In contrast, Presidential elections have around 50-55% turnout usually.

The Recent elections in VA and special elections through 2017 show Democrats are voting with more intensity than Republicans. 

So as long as Dems remain fired up (and I don’t see Trump doing anything to make Dems hate him less between now and November) it will be a tough year for Republicans. 

I agree with the conventional wisdom that Dems should retake the House but also I agree anything can happen. 

Edited by soulflower

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Gerrymandering is the only thing that can save the House of the R's this year.

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On 1/31/2018 at 8:57 AM, stevez51 said:

So what are you going to do if all this happens and he works with the Dems ..

Would you quit the Dem party ..???

Trump will never, ever work with anyone who does not give him everything he wants, whenever he wants it. He does not understand compromise. So there is little danger of this happening.

It might be true that a major event would unite the country - 9/11 did, for awhile - but Trump can be counted on to mishandle it or more likely to attempt to transform it into a moneyt making opportunity for his organization. Or, worse, he would be taking direction for Putin as to how the U.S. should handle it.

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