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soulflower

The Economy won’t save Republicans in 2018

40 posts in this topic

54 minutes ago, soulflower said:

Let’s revisit polls next week after the State of the Union bump fades

You do that.

Let me know what you find out.

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Democrats will all have jobs in 2018, they'll be too tired to vote.

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On 1/31/2018 at 8:54 AM, Calamari said:

They all know on some level that they can't coast on Obamas economy for much longer.

Trump is openly hoping for a major disaster, like 9-11 to do that.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-says-it-will-be-hard-to-unify-country-without-a-major-event

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/the-president-thinks-a-second-9-11-would-have-its-upsides.html

He will create one if need be. 

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Dems won a HD today in Missouri that wasn't contested in 2016. 

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celebrating state government seats ?   LMAO

 

BTW, there are 4 seats up for grabs there, got any more results?   please post them.

Edited by Boobie

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9 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Dems won a HD today in Missouri that wasn't contested in 2016. 

Another Democrat win in a Trump district 

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On 2/4/2018 at 10:40 AM, soulflower said:

I disagree with most of that simply because the Economy is already baked into Trump’s disapproval. 

Nearly 60% disapprove of Trump in spite of him Presiding over a relatively strong economy.

Hint: The economy is not why his disapproval is so high.

He inherited a strong economy. Polls show most people still give Obama credit for the state of the economy. So like I said, it’s complicated. 

I’m sure that partisanship plays a role in people’s views of the economy. Polls show Republicans feel better about the economy now that Trump is in office and Dems who aren’t wealthy generally feel the same about the economy as they did before Trump if not worse. I have seen some wealthy Dems credit Trump on the economy but they’re not the ones who will make a difference in November. 

Like I said, it’s complicated. 

 I do think the economy matters more in 2020, which will likely have a larger electorate and include more Middle of the Road type voters (like yourself). If the economy stays the same through 2020, Trump will be tough to beat. The same was true for Obama who was re-elected in 2012 despite Republicans being more enthusiastic than Democrats. 

But as far as midterms go, those electorates tend to be more Partisan and the Party out of power tends to have more enthusiasm to vote in Midterm elections. Turnout overall in Midterm elections tends to be around 30-40%. In contrast, Presidential elections have around 50-55% turnout usually.

The Recent elections in VA and special elections through 2017 show Democrats are voting with more intensity than Republicans. 

So as long as Dems remain fired up (and I don’t see Trump doing anything to make Dems hate him less between now and November) it will be a tough year for Republicans. 

I agree with the conventional wisdom that Dems should retake the House but also I agree anything can happen. 

Well I hope you’re right. Let’s also remember Donny will hit the campaign trail hard this fall reminding everyone how great he is and how we need Republicans in office.

Wait, I’m a middle of the road type voter?

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55 minutes ago, Jimmy Jazz said:

Well I hope you’re right. Let’s also remember Donny will hit the campaign trail hard this fall reminding everyone how great he is and how we need Republicans in office.

Wait, I’m a middle of the road type voter?

Certainly the most middle-of-the-road on here. You don't think so?

Edited by Heisenberg

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1 hour ago, Jimmy Jazz said:

Well I hope you’re right. Let’s also remember Donny will hit the campaign trail hard this fall reminding everyone how great he is and how we need Republicans in office.

Wait, I’m a middle of the road type voter?

I wonder how many times he'll break the law or ethics rules when he does.

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