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soulflower

Dow has worst week since 2016

233 posts in this topic

It's just a "Correction" 4% or so, it already went Up 20 some percent what do you Want? Most are still Up from what it was, Most folks were expecting an Interest rate change. That's the way it works, Don't panic!

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2 hours ago, workerbee said:

The date is 02/05/18... Time is 5pm.  We agree!

My god...

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2 hours ago, jdsample said:



It, like most products, created its own demand.  

My god, you're right. Why don't you go create wealth and jobs by building a typewriter factory.

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4 hours ago, EGoldstein said:

And when people quit buying buggy whips, the government didn't subsidize the market in order to keep buggy whip makers in business.  So if people phase out coal usage, what made people think that Donny was going to save coal mining?  Was it something he said?  

https://www.eia.gov/coal/annual/

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-has-only-delivered-1200-coal-mining-jobs-despite-claiming-have-751885

The reality is that coal is still a practical fuel source used around the world and in abundant supply.  It isn't being phased out by superior and cheaper sources.  It is all regulation.  Buggy whips didn't go away because of Federal regulations.  

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4 hours ago, ms maggie said:

Nonsense. Computers filled a need--faster, more accurate communication and "computing". The product filled a need.

Products that don't fill a need fail. As I'm sure you know, most new products fail.

Of course computers did.  The problem was that TCMITS didn't know he needed one until somebody built one and put it in the display window.  I didn't know I needed a smart phone when there was a phone booth on every corner.  Supply created the demand.  

About the only thing I can think of where demand created supply was the bringing of Will & Grace out of mothballs.  We knew we loved the show because we had seen it and wanted more episodes.  

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9 minutes ago, jdsample said:

The reality is that coal is still a practical fuel source used around the world and in abundant supply.  It isn't being phased out by superior and cheaper sources.  It is all regulation.  Buggy whips didn't go away because of Federal regulations.  

"Solar power is now cheaper than coal in some parts of the world. In less than a decade, it’s likely to be the lowest-cost option almost everywhere"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/for-cheapest-power-on-earth-look-skyward-as-coal-falls-to-solar

And of course it's superior: clean and renewable.

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Just now, jdsample said:

Of course computers did.  The problem was that TCMITS didn't know he needed one until somebody built one and put it in the display window.  I didn't know I needed a smart phone when there was a phone booth on every corner.  Supply created the demand.  

About the only thing I can think of where demand created supply was the bringing of Will & Grace out of mothballs.  We knew we loved the show because we had seen it and wanted more episodes.  

No. You're confusing invention/innovation with supply. 

Demand will find supply. Supply sometimes find demand. Did beta systems stop selling because of lack of supply or lack of demand? Did New Coke flop because they didn't make enough? Use your head.

What happens when supply exceeds demand? Prices plummet.

What happens when demand exceeds supply? Prices climb.

Why is that?

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3 hours ago, JoyinMudville said:

My god, you're right. Why don't you go create wealth and jobs by building a typewriter factory.

At one time, someone did.  And succeeded in grand fashion.  

As MsMaggie has pointed out not every creation succeeds.  Somehow the Pet Rock did.  I can't explain that.  ;)

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There’s a finite number of people who Demand any given product. 

And sometimes innovation kills Demand for other products 

Like for example, I’m sure that Low-End digital cameras are no longer profitable now that nearly everyone has a decent digital camera in their Smartphones. 

The high-end Digital cameras are probably still profitable but there aren’t many people who aren’t professionals who are going to spend $500-1000 for a higher end camera. 

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21 minutes ago, ms maggie said:

"Solar power is now cheaper than coal in some parts of the world. In less than a decade, it’s likely to be the lowest-cost option almost everywhere"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/for-cheapest-power-on-earth-look-skyward-as-coal-falls-to-solar

And of course it's superior: clean and renewable.

I hope you are right, but so far it is polluting as hell.  Nastiest chemicals on earth.  Once you put the array on your roof you can pretend your energy is clean, until you need to replace the array.  

And we are almost entirely dependent on China for those chemicals and they use copious amounts of coal to produce them.  

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19 minutes ago, ms maggie said:

No. You're confusing invention/innovation with supply. 

Demand will find supply. Supply sometimes find demand. Did beta systems stop selling because of lack of supply or lack of demand? Did New Coke flop because they didn't make enough? Use your head.

What happens when supply exceeds demand? Prices plummet.

What happens when demand exceeds supply? Prices climb.

Why is that?

Invention & innovation create supply.  Without those you would be doing your taxes on a mechanical adding machine.  No, wait, that was an innovation.  You would be scratching lines in the dirt.  

You made the point earlier that not every creation produces demand.  True enough.  

But nobody knows what they want until someone creates it.  There was no suggestion box that somebody dropped a suggestion for a smart phone into.  That demand did not exist until someone created one.  

And of course I know the law of supply & demand.  Pet Rocks are free now.  That wasn't true when they were created.  Obviously there is an interplay between supply and demand.  

Investors bet their retirement money on someone to decide whether the public will demand hover boards, or stilts.  If they bet right, the innovators supply the market with things people will subsequently demand.  Producing 1M pair of stilts is probably not a good investment.  But when people marvel at a hover board not knowing it was possible, then it creates demand.  

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6 hours ago, Evil Yoda said:

Dow down ~1,100 today. Ever since the SoTU. It climbed much faster than wealth was being generated behind it.

The less crazy buildup without negatives the better we are. The longer it climbs unchecked, the worse it will be later when there is a big panic.

If indicies drop like 30% over the next couple of weeks it would be kind of hilarious. Unlikely, but hilarious. 

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"Now add to this calculation the fact that Donald Trump is the president of this dry forest, and that he happens to enjoy playing with matches. He will only add to volatility and uncertainty.

What exactly does that look like? Allow me to illustrate using remarks he made at a Customs and Border Protection Roundtableon Friday, where the president was discussing countries that refuse to take back their citizens once they've been removed from the United States.

Here's what he said [emphasis ours]:

So if they don’t take them back and — you know, those are unusual names, because you think in terms of South America more so than you do Asia. But if they don’t take them back, we’ll put sanctions on the countries. We’ll put tariffs on the countries. They’ll take them back so fast your head will spin. We’ll just tariff their goods coming in, and they’ll take them back in two seconds. You have a lot of people from those countries, and they’ll take them back.

We should note here that one of the worst offenders in this case is China, a country that could do significant damage to the US in a trade war. Every country is, in fact, not the same."

Link

Wrong man, wrong place, wrong time.

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6 hours ago, jdsample said:

Invention & innovation create supply.  Without those you would be doing your taxes on a mechanical adding machine.  No, wait, that was an innovation.  You would be scratching lines in the dirt.  

You made the point earlier that not every creation produces demand.  True enough.  

But nobody knows what they want until someone creates it.  There was no suggestion box that somebody dropped a suggestion for a smart phone into.  That demand did not exist until someone created one.  

And of course I know the law of supply & demand.  Pet Rocks are free now.  That wasn't true when they were created.  Obviously there is an interplay between supply and demand.  

Investors bet their retirement money on someone to decide whether the public will demand hover boards, or stilts.  If they bet right, the innovators supply the market with things people will subsequently demand.  Producing 1M pair of stilts is probably not a good investment.  But when people marvel at a hover board not knowing it was possible, then it creates demand.  

Nobody knows what they want til someone creates it?  Why do companies spend billions on market research to discern what consumers want if consumers don't know what they want?

You reference cell phones and hover boards. These are exceptions ( truly unique concepts). 99% of products are "me-too")

You should try to spread this peculiar economic doctrine: you could call it the "if you build it they will come" theory!

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, jdsample said:

The reality is that coal is still a practical fuel source used around the world and in abundant supply.  It isn't being phased out by superior and cheaper sources.  It is all regulation.  Buggy whips didn't go away because of Federal regulations.  

Natural gas is cheaper and in abundant supply.  Which is why Trump's campaigning was amusing.  On one hand he was going to save coal, but on the other hand he was going to unleash the US' gas and oil resources which would push costs down even further continually hurting coal.

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1 hour ago, ivanbalt said:

Natural gas is cheaper and in abundant supply.  Which is why Trump's campaigning was amusing.  On one hand he was going to save coal, but on the other hand he was going to unleash the US' gas and oil resources which would push costs down even further continually hurting coal.

Both should be unleashed.  Then we will see.  However there are many power plants around the country designed to burn powdered coal.  I say use them rather than tearing them down and building new ones.  

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7 hours ago, bmorepunk said:

The less crazy buildup without negatives the better we are. The longer it climbs unchecked, the worse it will be later when there is a big panic.

If indicies drop like 30% over the next couple of weeks it would be kind of hilarious. Unlikely, but hilarious. 

It's off 330 points already, based on what the Nikkei did overnight.

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2 hours ago, ms maggie said:

Nobody knows what they want til someone creates it?  Why do companies spend billions on market research to discern what consumers want if consumers don't know what they want?

You reference cell phones and hover boards. These are exceptions ( truly unique concepts). 99% of products are "me-too")

You should try to spread this peculiar economic doctrine: you could call it the "if you build it they will come" theory!

 

 

 

To present customers with concepts they may never have thought of.  See which they prefer.  See what they would be willing to pay.  Often that is part of the creative process.  

But yeah, "if you build it, they will come" is the way a lot of business is done, and if you fail to find a niche you and your investors lose.  (Which brings us back to government incentivizing investment with lower tax rates.)  

I certainly don't do market research to determine whether people will like coffee flavored port.  Most people would say it sounds gross.  We just make it and see what happens.  As it happened all 28 bottles were gone in a few hours and we could not get the ingredients again until a year later.  Other wines we make collect dust.  So we don't make more.  

Before we made coffee flavored port, no one asked for it.  They didn't know they wanted it.  

Edited by jdsample

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57 minutes ago, jdsample said:

Both should be unleashed.  Then we will see.  However there are many power plants around the country designed to burn powdered coal.  I say use them rather than tearing them down and building new ones.  

Why burn dirtier coal when there is a cheaper and cleaner option in natural gas?

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Natural gas is more difficult to extract and more difficult to transport and handle. A lot of people don't care about air pollution much if it means saving them money.

The trick would be to price all the anti-pollution measures needed into the cost of a fuel. That is. if a fuel is dirtier the pollution surcharge would be proportionally higher. That would level the playing field.

Edited by Evil Yoda

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5 hours ago, ivanbalt said:

Why burn dirtier coal when there is a cheaper and cleaner option in natural gas?

Because we have coal plants we would have to suddenly replace.  

 

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2 hours ago, Evil Yoda said:

Natural gas is more difficult to extract and more difficult to transport and handle. A lot of people don't care about air pollution much if it means saving them money.

The trick would be to price all the anti-pollution measures needed into the cost of a fuel. That is. if a fuel is dirtier the pollution surcharge would be proportionally higher. That would level the playing field.

That is done to some extent now and has been for a long time.  It simply costs more in equipment to meet emissions standards with coal, than natural gas.  We had a coal plant near where I lived in Arkansas and many times I took students out there for tours.  They shipped coal in from Colorado because it was cleaner than other sources of coal, meaning less sulphur and other pollutants.  Then they still needed big scrubbers in their stacks to catch the residual.  To my knowledge you don't need to go to those extremes with gas.  

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Helluva ride in the market today.  Closing up nearly 600 after being down 900+.  This investment crap is not for the weak of heart!

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3 minutes ago, MiddleOfTheRoad said:

Helluva ride in the market today.  Closing up nearly 600 after being down 900+.  This investment crap is not for the weak of heart!

If I want to ride a roller coaster I will go to Disney World. Their coasters are more tame than the markets have been over the last three trading days. :P

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