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RavingManiac

4th and goal

37 posts in this topic

Harbaugh though doesnt have a great feel for the flow of the game imo. I can't prove this statistically except maybe pointing to his mediocre record the last 5 years. Its just something I see - he'll go for it when he shouldn't and vice versa. Some coaches have a great instinct about when to press the gas and when to play field position. After watching Pederson throughout the playoffs I can say he has it.

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14 hours ago, poefolks said:

Harbaugh though doesnt have a great feel for the flow of the game imo. I can't prove this statistically except maybe pointing to his mediocre record the last 5 years. Its just something I see - he'll go for it when he shouldn't and vice versa. Some coaches have a great instinct about when to press the gas and when to play field position. After watching Pederson throughout the playoffs I can say he has it.

Another way of looking at this is it's up to the coach to know if his team has got momentum and is playing with a hot hand so to speak and usually in those cases the breaks seem to go their way.  Harbaugh  tries to use a 4th and 1 to change momentum- but you need to have the right play call and the players who can execute- a hand off to Alex Collins up the middle against a good team is a high risk low reward play call.

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On 2/8/2018 at 9:40 AM, Pickle20 said:

 

 

However, John takes points off the board by going for it in non-essential situations. He's got the best kicker in the game, let him kick it.

 

 

 

Exactly. There are times when 4th and 1 is the right call. Going for it in the red zone in the 3rd quarter when you're only down by 7 isn't one of those times

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20 hours ago, bmore_ken said:

Exactly. There are times when 4th and 1 is the right call. Going for it in the red zone in the 3rd quarter when you're only down by 7 isn't one of those times

If trying to tie the game in the 3rd is not a good time then when is a good time?

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8 minutes ago, RavingManiac said:

If trying to tie the game in the 3rd is not a good time then when is a good time?

When you have less time in the game for more possessions obviously. Cutting a 7 point lead to 4 in the 3rd quarter with plenty of time for more possessions is smarter than failing on 4th down in the 3rd quarter and remaining 7 down in my opinion. Obviously you disagree and no one knows football more than you. :rolleyes:

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5 minutes ago, bmore_ken said:

When you have less time in the game for more possessions obviously. Cutting a 7 point lead to 4 in the 3rd quarter with plenty of time for more possessions is smarter than failing on 4th down in the 3rd quarter and remaining 7 down in my opinion. Obviously you disagree and no one knows football more than you. :rolleyes:

How about cutting a 7 point lead to zero rather than cutting it down by only 4? Obviously Harbaugh disagrees with you but he doesn’t know as much about football as you. What about Pederson? Is he just an idiot too who doesn’t understand football like you do? What about Belicheck? Is he another one who doesn’t understand the game like you do? 

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On ‎2‎/‎6‎/‎2018 at 10:23 AM, Manny said:

It’s our playcalling on 4th and 1 that irritates me. 

It depends on field position doesn't it? I mean inside the 20 it's as good as a punt if you don't make it. Right? Or are you talking about like , mid-field?

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6 hours ago, RavingManiac said:

How about cutting a 7 point lead to zero rather than cutting it down by only 4?

Because you have the best kicker in the history of the game. You're giving up a guaranteed three vs a possible 7 or a possible 0

Edited by bmore_ken

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Actually - it is not always a random "gut-instinct - feel/flow of the game" gamble in these situations. In the Eagles case it is a math based predictive analytics and probability model they employ to make the decision.  The Eagles employ a data analytics firm - EdjAnalytics-  to help optimize risk management based in game decision making.  Even if an in game decision increases their win probability quotient by .5% - they might take it.  They don't care about conventional wisdom. For example - if you follow the models - it is actually mathematically defensible for a team to go for it on 4th & 1 on their own 10 yard line if they have the ball first in OT - than punt the ball back to the opposition.  A team's win probability would actually decrease dramatically in that scenario if they punt - even though going for it will give their fans a coronary.  Here is a fascinating article in the New York Times about how The Eagles relied on data analytics from EdjAnalytics during the Super Bowl:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/sports/football/eagles-analytics-super-bowl-lii.html

Interesting note is that The Patriots and Steelers use the same firm (along with the Lions and Saints).  No one knows if The Ravens use them as well, as not all teams have consented to disclosure (surprised the Patriots did).  EdjAnalytics has used a Power BI solution that crunched literally hundreds of thousands of plays and scenarios to help drive their formula to increase what they call GWC (Game Winning Chance) probabilities.

Definitely a copy cat league - so we may see some increases in "buck the system" calls next year.  The games are usually pretty close.  I think some absurd percentage - around 80% of NFL games - are within one score during the final 4 minutes.  Blowouts are actually more of an anomaly. So any edge you can get is one worth taking.

Edited by RestonRaven

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On ‎2‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 8:25 PM, bmore_ken said:

Because you have the best kicker in the history of the game. You're giving up a guaranteed three vs a possible 7 or a possible 0

I think you are missing the point, Ken. Coaches aren't worried about if their kicker can make the field goal on a 4th and goal situation or a 4th and short inside the 20. The Eagles weren't worried if their kicker could make the kick on their 4th and goal decision. Yes, the Eagles kicker is not the best field goal kicker in the history of the NFL but I would give you 20-1 odds that the kicker could make that kick. So having the best kicker is irrelevant on 4th and short inside the ten or 20 yard line.

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We’ll just have to agree to disagree  because my comments weren’t about the Eagles. 

Edited by bmore_ken

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21 hours ago, bmore_ken said:

We’ll just have to agree to disagree  because my comments weren’t about the Eagles. 

You are right. My bad. Let's keep it with the Ravens.

It doesn't matter if the Ravens have the best kicker in NFL history or just an average kicker in a lot of these 4th and goal situations (or 4th and short). If it's a 4th and goal at the 1 yard line, the Ravens could have the 15th best kicker in the league and I think there is a very good chance that the kicker could make that field goal. That is not what teams are worried about when making the decision to go for it. They don't think "Well we are at the 2 yard line, do you guys think our kicker could make this kick? If not, we should go for it." That is not part of the equation here. They are trying to get an edge.

I realize again you don't understand my argument here and that's fine. I understand it and hopefully others do as well.

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