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Dystopia

Maryland fair map

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I found a cool district-drawing program last night and thought I'd have some fun with it. Here's a hypothetical fair map of Maryland I made with the coming SC case challenging Maryland's ultra-gerrymandered districts, the current map is likely to get struck down.

https://prnt.sc/ic00u3

PVIs:

District 1: R +11
District 2: D +16
District 3: D +5
District 4: D +24
District 5: D +32
District 6: D +18
District 7: R +9
District 8: D +25
 
Key points: 
 
-Each district contains 720k - 725k people
-Republicans get 2 districts, Dems get 5 with district 3 being a possible swingy district that would favor Dems in most elections
-Three different congressional districts in Baltimore
 
Maryland is inherently tricky just because of its bizarre shape, but these districts are relatively compact. No funky squiggles or anything.
 
Thoughts? Would anyone object to this map?
 
Edited by Dystopia

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Thanks for the link!  :)

I don't think that the "bizarre shape" of the state has ever had very much to do with redistricting shenanigans, however your link, IMHO, displays a realistic picture of where political power lies in the state.

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5 minutes ago, blowboatbethesda said:

Thanks for the link!  :)

I don't think that the "bizarre shape" of the state has ever had very much to do with redistricting shenanigans, however your link, IMHO, displays a realistic picture of where political power lies in the state.

Oh, definitely not. Democrats made their funkiest looking districts in the most normal-shaped area of the state, i.e. the center.

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6 minutes ago, Dystopia said:

Oh, definitely not. Democrats made their funkiest looking districts in the most normal-shaped area of the state, i.e. the center.

*Laughs* I have no idea what constitutes a "normal shaped area" of any state, however it's no secret that the political power of the Democrats in Maryland lie in Montgomery, Howard, and Baltimore Counties as well as Baltimore City, due in part to the high percentage of government workers in said areas.  If you want a good laugh, check out the gerrymandering done in some of the Old South after LBJ and Congress passed the Civil Rights Act; nonsensical redistricting that exists to this very day.

Western Maryland, the Eastern Shore and portions of nearby counties have been "red" since, say, before the Civil (let's not start another CW thread please) War. :)

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I've seen way worse. Not too bad.

PA has a district they call Goofy kicking Donald (the duck not the Prez!) and it's as bad as the broken backed pterodactyl MD has.

Goofy kicking Donald District near Philly

Edited by Woodbuchr

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Maryland Dems could have gerrymandered to the point where the Dems would have had all 8 seats, but could have lost a couple in a wave year. They seemed to go for a more pro-incumbent approach though. 

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It looks like Baltimore County shares five districts.  I think a little more tweaking could be useful to keep counties together, but it's better than what we have now.

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Districts 1, 3 and 7 would likely go republican.

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I don't know where he's getting his PVI values, I guess his program supplied them, but if district 3 really is D +5 it's hard to see it going Republican very often. He put a decent chunk of Baltimore in it so I can see a D +5 electorate for that district.

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2 hours ago, Dystopia said:

I found a cool district-drawing program last night and thought I'd have some fun with it. Here's a hypothetical fair map of Maryland I made with the coming SC case challenging Maryland's ultra-gerrymandered districts, the current map is likely to get struck down.

https://prnt.sc/ic00u3

PVIs:

District 1: R +11
District 2: D +16
District 3: D +5
District 4: D +24
District 5: D +32
District 6: D +18
District 7: R +9
District 8: D +25
 
Key points: 
 
-Each district contains 720k - 725k people
-Republicans get 2 districts, Dems get 5 with district 3 being a possible swingy district that would favor Dems in most elections
-Three different congressional districts in Baltimore
 
Maryland is inherently tricky just because of its bizarre shape, but these districts are relatively compact. No funky squiggles or anything.
 
Thoughts? Would anyone object to this map?
 

What is the website to do this? Link? Thanks.

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14 minutes ago, Smokey 1 said:

Districts 1, 3 and 7 would likely go republican.

Yeah, that's been implied, as previously stated, Smoke. :)

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5 minutes ago, johnpolitics said:

What is the website to do this? Link? Thanks.

Google can be your friend. :rolleyes:

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3 minutes ago, blowboatbethesda said:

Google can be your friend. :rolleyes:

I know that but there are several different places that have these programs. I want the right one. 

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10 minutes ago, blowboatbethesda said:

Yeah, that's been implied, as previously stated, Smoke. :)

Yeah but he said District 3 would go dem most of the time and I think it would go republican most of the time.

Edited by Smokey 1

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15 hours ago, Smokey 1 said:

Yeah but he said District 3 would go dem most of the time and I think it would go republican most of the time.

My program said that the PVI score for this country was D +5, as the northern portion in Baltimore City and its suburbs offsets the more conservative southern part. At best it would be a swing district. 

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15 hours ago, Baltimatt said:

It looks like Baltimore County shares five districts.  I think a little more tweaking could be useful to keep counties together, but it's better than what we have now.

That's because Baltimore County has so many people and encloses Baltimore City which is another good chunk of people.

Edited by Dystopia

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16 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Maryland Dems could have gerrymandered to the point where the Dems would have had all 8 seats, but could have lost a couple in a wave year. They seemed to go for a more pro-incumbent approach though. 

I was curious about this and I found I was indeed able to give the Dems 8 pretty solid seats. 

https://prnt.sc/ic6rot

The most Republican district in this scenario would be district 1 with a PVI score of D +4. Obviously I had to do some funky maneuvering to make this possible. I had to connect district 1 with Baltimore and district 6 with DC suburbs, which is absurd. And district 7 is all sorts of whack. 

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17 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Maryland Dems could have gerrymandered to the point where the Dems would have had all 8 seats, but could have lost a couple in a wave year. They seemed to go for a more pro-incumbent approach though. 

Pro-incumbent gerrymandering is a big problem in the whole country. It allows incumbents to feel safe, and in that safety they allow their most extreme ideas off the leash, to the general detriment of everyone.

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6 hours ago, Dystopia said:

I was curious about this and I found I was indeed able to give the Dems 8 pretty solid seats. 

https://prnt.sc/ic6rot

The most Republican district in this scenario would be district 1 with a PVI score of D +4. Obviously I had to do some funky maneuvering to make this possible. I had to connect district 1 with Baltimore and district 6 with DC suburbs, which is absurd. And district 7 is all sorts of whack. 

Still looks better than most states’ maps :lol:

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Much more sensible map than existing.  Still don’t need like Baltimore County getting lumped on with City and How-Wierd County

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On 2/8/2018 at 9:12 PM, Baltimatt said:

It looks like Baltimore County shares five districts.  I think a little more tweaking could be useful to keep counties together, but it's better than what we have now.

Here's what Article 3 of the Maryland Constitution says about drawing state legislative districts.

SEC. 4. Each legislative district shall consist of adjoining territory, be compact in form, and of substantially equal population. Due regard shall be given to natural boundaries and the boundaries of political subdivisions.

The same should apply to Congressional districts.

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9 hours ago, Dinglehopper said:

Much more sensible map than existing.  Still don’t need like Baltimore County getting lumped on with City and How-Wierd County

Compared to what we have now....this map is excellent....by far.

But I agree with you and matt about the county. To me it should be taken as a whole maybe divided into 3 parts to accomidate the citizens and social aspects of each resulting sub-district.

Face it....look at the makeup of east, west and central Baltimore county....they are very different in a LOT of respects...socially, employment wise, wealth wise, education wise and so on.

Out side of that ....the map looks damn good.

And because of that....it or something similar....it won't happen....however with the courts dropping the hammer on PA...who knows what the courts will say with MDs case.

Kind of interesting in a way...we see how the lib courts shot down PA republican gerrymandering.....I wonder is the the sauce will for the goose will be equally applied to the dem gander.

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On ‎2‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 4:57 PM, blowboatbethesda said:

*Laughs* I have no idea what constitutes a "normal shaped area" of any state, however it's no secret that the political power of the Democrats in Maryland lie in Montgomery, Howard, and Baltimore Counties as well as Baltimore City, due in part to the high percentage of government workers in said areas.  If you want a good laugh, check out the gerrymandering done in some of the Old South after LBJ and Congress passed the Civil Rights Act; nonsensical redistricting that exists to this very day.

Western Maryland, the Eastern Shore and portions of nearby counties have been "red" since, say, before the Civil (let's not start another CW thread please) War. :)

I would think PG county would be more dem than Montgomery, by a hair. TBH, I really don't understand what role districting plays in an election.

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2 minutes ago, mrdeltoid said:

I would think PG county would be more dem than Montgomery, by a hair. TBH, I really don't understand what role districting plays in an election.

Redistricting affects political power. It determines which party controls Congress and state and local governments across the country. Even when the population is divided equally, drawing the lines one way can reward Democrats and punish Republicans or vice versa. Some line-drawing can protect incumbents. Some line-drawing can guarantee they will face a potent challenger, either from their own party or the opposite party. Consequently, redistricting has a direct bearing on what matters a legislature chooses to tackle, and which to ignore. 

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