Pickle20

What exactly are the O's getting out of their Rule 5 picks?

27 posts in this topic

Everyone knows the Rule 5 draft is the most exciting part of the offseason in Baltimore. Since 2011, here are the results of the players they've selected:

Rosario DNP
Flaherty 1.6 WAR
McFarland -0.1 WAR
Almanzar DNP
Merrett DNP
Rickard 0.3 WAR
Tavares DNP
Cortes -0.2 WAR
Araujo -0.1 WAR
Mesa Jr DNP

That's a combined 1.5 WAR. And it's pretty sad when the best of the bunch was Ryan Flaherty who was a zero with the bat while here, but played several positions pretty well. Everyone else was AAAA fodder. Pedro Araujo looks like he could develop into something but based on the other players selected in the Rule 5 draft I'm not holding out much hope.

Why are the Orioles putting so much importance into the Rule 5 draft when it is so clearly not paying off?

 

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Don't all teams devote 12% of their roster space to Rule 5 players?

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2 minutes ago, Thirteen said:

Don't all teams devote 12% of their roster space to Rule 5 players?

Nope, only teams that have told their fanbase they're still "going for it".

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The most successful rule 5 acquisition was Jay Gibbons. The biggest rule 5 mistake was to catch and release Jose Bautista. But that's understandable, since it took him years after that, to establish himself as an AS caliber player. Otherwise, I don't get the appeal of the process. Cortez looked good in NY's system, but good in the minors isn't the same as good in the majors. ML hitters are not struggling to hit his crafty, BP speed, pitches.  

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Posted (edited)

8 minutes ago, weird-O said:

The biggest rule 5 mistake was to catch and release Jose Bautista. But that's understandable, since it took him years after that, to establish himself as an AS caliber player for the steroids to kick in.

just a minor correction.

 

on a side note, he had an eventful 7 1/2 months:

December 15, 2003: Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles from the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2003 rule 5 draft.

June 3, 2004: Selected off waivers by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays from the Baltimore Orioles.

June 28, 2004: Purchased by the Kansas City Royals from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

July 30, 2004: Traded by the Kansas City Royals to the New York Mets for Justin Huber.

July 30, 2004: Traded by the New York Mets with Matt Peterson (minors) and Ty Wigginton to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger.

Edited by Thirteen

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2 minutes ago, weird-O said:

The most successful rule 5 acquisition was Jay Gibbons. The biggest rule 5 mistake was to catch and release Jose Bautista. But that's understandable, since it took him years after that, to establish himself as an AS caliber player. Otherwise, I don't get the appeal of the process. Cortez looked good in NY's system, but good in the minors isn't the same as good in the majors. ML hitters are not struggling to hit his crafty, BP speed, pitches.  

Aroujo and Santander look like keepers and could be the best rule 5 guys yet.  .  I think Santander gets sent down the second week of May for more seasoning.  Buck will be looking for roster spots for Trumbs, ALvarez, Rasmus/Saunders - LOL!!!   

Cortez a dud.  He needs returned.

But I agree, if you are trying to compete this year you can't carry 3 rule 5 guys.  That's just asinine.  May pay off for 2019 though.

 

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18 minutes ago, CROUSEMAN said:

Aroujo and Santander look like keepers and could be the best rule 5 guys yet.  .  I think Santander gets sent down the second week of May for more seasoning.  Buck will be looking for roster spots for Trumbs, ALvarez, Rasmus/Saunders - LOL!!!   

Cortez a dud.  He needs returned.

But I agree, if you are trying to compete this year you can't carry 3 rule 5 guys.  That's just asinine.  May pay off for 2019 though.

 

I don't think Cortez is a dud but he may need more seasoning. I really don't get why he was thrown into the fire last night into a very stressful situation. If the Orioles want to keep him he needs to pitch more when the game is not on the line and bolster confidence before he can be tested in tight games.

FWIW I do think he needs to be returned but he could very well become a good major league pitcher. The Orioles, if they are really thinking about contending need to move on from him even if they like what they see. Roster spots should not be filled with potentials.

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It's the "throw things against the wall and hope something sticks" theory of building a contender!

It goes hand-in-hand with "hope a guy just starts being good again".

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35 minutes ago, NCBirdfan said:

I don't think Cortez is a dud but he may need more seasoning. I really don't get why he was thrown into the fire last night into a very stressful situation. If the Orioles want to keep him he needs to pitch more when the game is not on the line and bolster confidence before he can be tested in tight games.

FWIW I do think he needs to be returned but he could very well become a good major league pitcher. The Orioles, if they are really thinking about contending need to move on from him even if they like what they see. Roster spots should not be filled with potentials.

Buck didn't have a very deep BP after the overuse in NY, so that may be why he used Cortes the Killer in this situation.  I'm actually more concerned with Givens right now. IIRC he was shaky in NY too, but escaped a jam.. 

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Posted (edited)

It's part of Duquette's "lottery ticket" strategy.  Collect as many scratch-offs as possible, scrape off the coating to see what they hold, and eventually (the theory goes) something will pay off.  Quantity over quality, in the hope of just stumbling upon more quality.  Not a sound way to build an organization for the long-term, in my opinion.

Edited by Ravens2006

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Posted (edited)

3 hours ago, CROUSEMAN said:

Aroujo and Santander look like keepers and could be the best rule 5 guys yet.  .  I think Santander gets sent down the second week of May for more seasoning.  Buck will be looking for roster spots for Trumbs, ALvarez, Rasmus/Saunders - LOL!!!   

Cortez a dud.  He needs returned.

But I agree, if you are trying to compete this year you can't carry 3 rule 5 guys.  That's just asinine.  May pay off for 2019 though.

 

I agree on Aroujo.

The real issue is that we have a thin farm system because we refuse to spend money on international drafting so we're left the scraps from other teams.

I would take Santander over Rasmus or Alvarez.

Edited by JoyinMudville

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5 minutes ago, JoyinMudville said:

I agree on Aroujo.

The real issue is that we have a thin farm system because we refuse to spend money on international drafting so we're left the scraps from other teams.

I would take Santander over Rasmus or Alvarez.

I'll take the player with more future than past

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18 minutes ago, weird-O said:

I'll take the player with more future than past

Yeah Santander looks like he is actually getting some trust from Buck.  But he will soon have options available and Buck loves to move the checkers.  Buck will want to save one of his favs in Rasmus and or Alvarez.  Santander - check please see ya in Bowie!!!

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I remember back in, like, 2003 we kept some Turd on the roster the entire summer, a shortstop or infielder, and he may have only gotten 50 at-bats. After that season, never saw him again.

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19 hours ago, CROUSEMAN said:

Aroujo and Santander look like keepers and could be the best rule 5 guys yet.  .  I think Santander gets sent down the second week of May for more seasoning.  Buck will be looking for roster spots for Trumbs, ALvarez, Rasmus/Saunders - LOL!!!   

Cortez a dud.  He needs returned.

But I agree, if you are trying to compete this year you can't carry 3 rule 5 guys.  That's just asinine.  May pay off for 2019 though.

 

Cortes DFA.  He just didn't have it.  I really can't understand why it always takes a disaster (blown 2 or 3 games) for the O's to realize a guy isn't any good  So reactive on their player personnel evaluations.  The guy didn't show much in spring training.  Same could be said about Tilly and Wright.  How many games do they throw away before they wake up and adjust?

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21 hours ago, Pickle20 said:

Flaherty 1.6 WAR

On a side note, how does a replacement player even qualify for a positive 'WAR' number?

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55 minutes ago, Thirteen said:

On a side note, how does a replacement player even qualify for a positive 'WAR' number?

Well that's over 6 seasons, so 0.26 wins per season. Replacement level.

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22 hours ago, Thirteen said:

just a minor correction.

 

on a side note, he had an eventful 7 1/2 months:

December 15, 2003: Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles from the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2003 rule 5 draft.

June 3, 2004: Selected off waivers by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays from the Baltimore Orioles.

June 28, 2004: Purchased by the Kansas City Royals from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

July 30, 2004: Traded by the Kansas City Royals to the New York Mets for Justin Huber.

July 30, 2004: Traded by the New York Mets with Matt Peterson (minors) and Ty Wigginton to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger.

He chose the time released capsule version of HGH

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Posted (edited)

2 hours ago, Pickle20 said:

Well that's over 6 seasons, so 0.26 wins per season. Replacement level.

But by definition, he is the 'R' in WAR.  Wouldn't his replacement be the normal starter? 

Doesn't that then mean they'll get 0.26 wins more per season by plying Ryan over the guy he's replacing?

Edited by Thirteen

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18 minutes ago, Thirteen said:

But by definition, he is the 'R' in WAR.  Wouldn't his replacement be the normal starter? 

Doesn't that then mean they'll get 0.26 wins more per season by plying Ryan over the guy he's replacing?

It depends on who the replacement is. Shouldn't be difficult to find someone who gives them more WAR but this is the Orioles, so maybe not.

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19 minutes ago, Pickle20 said:

It depends on who the replacement is. Shouldn't be difficult to find someone who gives them more WAR but this is the Orioles, so maybe not.

My point is that the replacement for a replacement is typically a regular starter (be it Macahdo, Schoop, or whoever else may be injured or taking an off day).  This is why I think WAR is completely non-nonsensical.  It depends on who the replacement is.  Is Flaherty's WAR calculated based upon the third stringer or is it based on the first stringer?

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5 minutes ago, Thirteen said:

My point is that the replacement for a replacement is typically a regular starter (be it Macahdo, Schoop, or whoever else may be injured or taking an off day).  This is why I think WAR is completely non-nonsensical.  It depends on who the replacement is.  Is Flaherty's WAR calculated based upon the third stringer or is it based on the first stringer?

I don't typically care for WAR much either but I think it just shows you how much better or worse someone can be over a JAG (Just A Guy).

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On 4/11/2018 at 11:48 AM, Pickle20 said:

I don't typically care for WAR much either but I think it just shows you how much better or worse someone can be over a JAG (Just A Guy).

Current WAR Numbers:

Craig Gentry 0.6

Ryan Flaherty 0.5

Pedro Alverez 0.4

Manny Machado 0.4

Chance Sisco 0.2

Trey Mancini 0.2

Jonathan Schoop 0.1

 

 

Just sayin'  :lol:

 

Edited by Thirteen

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