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NCBirdfan

The Orioles Need A Complete Overhaul

79 posts in this topic

51 minutes ago, weird-O said:

This

But they'll sell it as "the turning point" 

Seven games left this month vs. TB and CHW.

There really are a LOT of awful teams this year.

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39 minutes ago, Thirteen said:

I still think they're only going to get a compensation pick for Manny.

I heard Roch on the radio. He said it's unacceptable to keep Manny and settle for a comp pick next year. When the team is acting is a way, that even he dares to openly question them, you know they've gone off the reservation.

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Posted (edited)

20 minutes ago, weird-O said:

I heard Roch on the radio. He said it's unacceptable to keep Manny and settle for a comp pick next year. When the team is acting is a way, that even he dares to openly question them, you know they've gone off the reservation.

I had MLB TV on in the background on Saturday and heard them talking about Manny. They were saying the time to trade Manny is NOW if they don’t think they’ll be able re-sign him (which everyone agreed was unlikely).  

Now meaning yesterday/ today while he’s on fire and it’s still early so a team will get max value out of him this season and thus trade max value 

Otherwise by waiting they risk Manny falling into a slump or worse, pulling a hammy or getting injured.

My view: The Orioles management/ front office will blow this one way or another 

Edited by BayAreaBmore

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5 hours ago, Thirteen said:

I still think they're only going to get a compensation pick for Manny.

And if they do, they're pretty stupid indeed. 

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4 hours ago, weird-O said:

I heard Roch on the radio. He said it's unacceptable to keep Manny and settle for a comp pick next year. When the team is acting is a way, that even he dares to openly question them, you know they've gone off the reservation.

Would the O's be out of line to be looking for a 2016 Chapman type package?  They got the Cubs top prospect Torres (top 50 in baseball) , their top 5 prospect Billy McKinney OF, Adam Warren a serviceable ML middle reliever, and another low level prospect.  Torres then climbed to a top 5 prospect in baseball and is now in the Bigs playing well.

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Posted (edited)

13 hours ago, CROUSEMAN said:

Would the O's be out of line to be looking for a 2016 Chapman type package?  They got the Cubs top prospect Torres (top 50 in baseball) , their top 5 prospect Billy McKinney OF, Adam Warren a serviceable ML middle reliever, and another low level prospect.  Torres then climbed to a top 5 prospect in baseball and is now in the Bigs playing well.

It's unlikely they would get that type of deal. That was a perfect storm for NY. Because the Cubs were locked and loaded to win the WS. They had one tiny area of weakness, so they sured it up with Chapman. They also had such a deep system, and most of their ML team was made up of young players who would be under team control for a few seasons. Essentially, they were so rich in talent, they could afford to pay big. And pitchers are always more valuable to a team with WS aspirations. Manny certainly would help a team, but not like a standout pitcher. I think most teams will act more like Houston did last year. Blue chip prospects have become much more valuable than a few months of a pending FA   

Edited by weird-O

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Posted (edited)

8 minutes ago, weird-O said:

It's unlikely they would get that type of deal. That was a perfect storm for NY. Because the Cubs were locked and loaded to win the WS. They had one tiny area of weakness, so they sured it up with Chapman. They also had such a deep system, and most of their ML team was made up of young players who would be under team control for a few seasons. Essentially, they were so rich in talent, they could afford to pay big. And pitchers are always more valuable to a team with WS aspirations. Manny certainly would help a team, but not like a standout pitcher. I think most teams will act more like Houston did last year. Blue chip prospects have become much more valuable than a few months of a pending FA   

If this turns out to be the case, that no team will pony up big, then I don't see Manny going anywhere.  With Brady and Buck running the show based on friendships, loyalty and personal feelings, I could see them telling the Angelos 3 - "Don't trade Manny.  It will hurt his feelings that we don't want him and will kill our chances to resign him at a discount next winter."  And Manny will stay put.  And we will get a draft pick.

I'm completely convinced this is how Buck and Brady will handle this.

Edited by CROUSEMAN

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2 hours ago, CROUSEMAN said:

If this turns out to be the case, that no team will pony up big, then I don't see Manny going anywhere.  With Brady and Buck running the show based on friendships, loyalty and personal feelings, I could see them telling the Angelos 3 - "Don't trade Manny.  It will hurt his feelings that we don't want him and will kill our chances to resign him at a discount next winter."  And Manny will stay put.  And we will get a draft pick.

I'm completely convinced this is how Buck and Brady will handle this.

Manny might just want to stay regardless of the inner politics going on.  For some inexplicable reason, there's been quite a few Orioles over the years that wanted to stay here despite the constant losing.  The Orioles will never offer Machado any $300 million but he might just settle for a lot less if it means staying with his buddies, especially Schoop.  That's why I think it would be smart to trade him before the deadline, get some solid prospects and then try to resign him in the off season.  Stranger things have happened. 

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Posted (edited)

9 minutes ago, jamesdean said:

Manny might just want to stay regardless of the inner politics going on.  For some inexplicable reason, there's been quite a few Orioles over the years that wanted to stay here despite the constant losing.  The Orioles will never offer Machado any $300 million but he might just settle for a lot less if it means staying with his buddies, especially Schoop.  That's why I think it would be smart to trade him before the deadline, get some solid prospects and then try to resign him in the off season.  Stranger things have happened. 

Exactly.  You would actually have a better team to pitch to Manny next winter if you got some decent players for him in a trade.  Not sure Manny's market is going to be as big as some would think.  He won't play third, only short.  I think O's will be in competition with teams like the Phils and Braves.  But I wouldn't count out the Cubs either.  They seem to have soured on Russell at short.  On the other hand, Cubs are smarting from the Darvish deal.  How deep is the well on another huge contract.

Heard rumors the Cubs may be back in on Manny for a trade.  They need to jump start their team for a run at the WS.  But Epstein cautious about giving up more prospects.  He has given up a ton in the Chapman and Quintana deals.  

If Manny can't get to the Yanks,  coming back to Baltimore may be his next choice.

Edited by CROUSEMAN

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Vinny and Heiney (SP?) were talking to a beat writer for the Phillies. They asked if Philly will be in on Manny. He said, yes, but not during the season. He said the team doesn't want to give up prospects, when they feel very strongly that they can sign him this winter. He said they will go hard after Manny, in the off season. He said all of this in very definitive terms, as if there's no question about these comments, and it's well known around Philly. He went on to say that he doesn't think any team in the NL east will bother with trading for Manny. Those who are interested, will save the prospects, and pay more in the contract. His reasoning, especially for Philly, is that they don't see themselves as legit contenders this year, but they will be next year, so why give up players. He said they would give mediocre prospects, and the same seems to be true for most teams, but there's no interest in depleting the farm, when you can just get the guy in November.

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8 hours ago, weird-O said:

Vinny and Heiney (SP?) were talking to a beat writer for the Phillies. They asked if Philly will be in on Manny. He said, yes, but not during the season. He said the team doesn't want to give up prospects, when they feel very strongly that they can sign him this winter. He said they will go hard after Manny, in the off season. He said all of this in very definitive terms, as if there's no question about these comments, and it's well known around Philly. He went on to say that he doesn't think any team in the NL east will bother with trading for Manny. Those who are interested, will save the prospects, and pay more in the contract. His reasoning, especially for Philly, is that they don't see themselves as legit contenders this year, but they will be next year, so why give up players. He said they would give mediocre prospects, and the same seems to be true for most teams, but there's no interest in depleting the farm, when you can just get the guy in November.

That's what happens when you procrastinate.  Pure stupidity.  

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8 hours ago, weird-O said:

Vinny and Heiney (SP?) were talking to a beat writer for the Phillies. They asked if Philly will be in on Manny. He said, yes, but not during the season. He said the team doesn't want to give up prospects, when they feel very strongly that they can sign him this winter. He said they will go hard after Manny, in the off season. He said all of this in very definitive terms, as if there's no question about these comments, and it's well known around Philly. He went on to say that he doesn't think any team in the NL east will bother with trading for Manny. Those who are interested, will save the prospects, and pay more in the contract. His reasoning, especially for Philly, is that they don't see themselves as legit contenders this year, but they will be next year, so why give up players. He said they would give mediocre prospects, and the same seems to be true for most teams, but there's no interest in depleting the farm, when you can just get the guy in November.

Phily might be too tough a city for Manny to play in. 

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Posted (edited)

15 hours ago, weird-O said:

Vinny and Heiney (SP?) were talking to a beat writer for the Phillies. They asked if Philly will be in on Manny. He said, yes, but not during the season. He said the team doesn't want to give up prospects, when they feel very strongly that they can sign him this winter. He said they will go hard after Manny, in the off season. He said all of this in very definitive terms, as if there's no question about these comments, and it's well known around Philly. He went on to say that he doesn't think any team in the NL east will bother with trading for Manny. Those who are interested, will save the prospects, and pay more in the contract. His reasoning, especially for Philly, is that they don't see themselves as legit contenders this year, but they will be next year, so why give up players. He said they would give mediocre prospects, and the same seems to be true for most teams, but there's no interest in depleting the farm, when you can just get the guy in November.

I don't believe that for a nano second. 

Should the Phillies still be solidly in contention by July, I expect they'll change their tune. You can't let an opportunity to win a pennant simply pass by because you think you'll be in a better position next season. There's no guarantee of that because too much can go wrong. No team wants to give up prospects, but having too many of them as the deadline passes is what gets a GM fired.

The Phillies have plenty of young depth, both in the minors and at the major league level, and some of those guys could be appealing enough to another team while at the same time not severely hurting the Phillies' farm system. My biggest concerns are who will make that decision on the Orioles' side, and will they set the price so ridiculously high as to scare off any potential suitors. The Orioles could get some nice pieces in return for Manny, but anyone who thinks they're going to hit the mother lode is going to be sadly disappointed. 

Edited by mdrunning

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5 hours ago, mdrunning said:

I don't believe that for a nano second. 

Should the Phillies still be solidly in contention by July, I expect they'll change their tune. You can't let an opportunity to win a pennant simply pass by because you think you'll be in a better position next season. There's no guarantee of that because too much can go wrong. No team wants to give up prospects, but having too many of them as the deadline passes is what gets a GM fired.

The Phillies have plenty of young depth, both in the minors and at the major league level, and some of those guys could be appealing enough to another team while at the same time not severely hurting the Phillies' farm system. My biggest concerns are who will make that decision on the Orioles' side, and will they set the price so ridiculously high as to scare off any potential suitors. The Orioles could get some nice pieces in return for Manny, but anyone who thinks they're going to hit the mother lode is going to be sadly disappointed. 

All sound reasoning. As for the O's asking price, your concern is justified. Most execs ask for package A, wait to see what's being offered, do the negotiation dance, and pick the best partner. The O's don't operate in any rational way. Especially if the majority owner needs to sign off on the trade. By the time he gets around to it, everyone will have gone home.

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Posted (edited)

17 runs, 19 hits on Sunday...1 run on 4 hits today.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Edited by Pickle20

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6 minutes ago, Pickle20 said:

17 runs, 19 hits on Sunday...1 run on 4 hits today.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

That's the difference between playing another also ran team, and playing a team that's in contention

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8 minutes ago, weird-O said:

That's the difference between playing another also ran team, and playing a team that's in contention

They've still scored 18 runs in their last two games. So there's that.

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57 minutes ago, Pickle20 said:

17 runs, 19 hits on Sunday...1 run on 4 hits today.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Davis was in the lineup today.  He was not in the lineup on Sunday.

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5 minutes ago, Thirteen said:

Davis was in the lineup today.  He was not in the lineup on Sunday.

Yeah, but he doubled to opposite field today with 1 out. Predictably, the next two batters stranded him.

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, Pickle20 said:

17 runs, 19 hits on Sunday...1 run on 4 hits today.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Indeed.  Same problem they’ve had for last five or so years.  Pad their stats with a couple breakout games...  Then go back to sleep for a couple weeks 

Edited by BayAreaBmore

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Saw Olney on ESPN this AM where he said the market is not shaping up for the O's on getting a good haul for Manny.  His reasoning:  other top third baseman likely available like Mousse and Donaldson.  Wonder if any one has told this dill weed that Manny is now a SS.  ESPN is basically unwatchable anymore other than their live games. 

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1 hour ago, CROUSEMAN said:

Saw Olney on ESPN this AM where he said the market is not shaping up for the O's on getting a good haul for Manny.  His reasoning:  other top third baseman likely available like Mousse and Donaldson.  Wonder if any one has told this dill weed that Manny is now a SS.  ESPN is basically unwatchable anymore other than their live games. 

I don't have a strong opinion of Olney, either way. But as a professional, he really should know this. 

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Posted (edited)

57 minutes ago, weird-O said:

I don't have a strong opinion of Olney, either way. But as a professional, he really should know this. 

I think he probably knows Manny is playing some shortstop, as in passing mentioned teams that are in need of a SS/3B.  But his whole premise was based around Manny playing third for a new team. He made it seem SS was a part time gig, not his primary position.  No mention that there are zero SS on the market that can do what Manny does.  Yeah ole Buster failed to talk about that.  All the focus on teams needing a third baseman. It was really a poor interview.  

Edited by CROUSEMAN

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I heard a little of the mid-day show on the Fan. I forget the name of the guy who was filling in. But he was asked about the O's recent hot streak, and how he sees the season unfolding. He said he isn't persuaded by the short spell of offensive power, and that it's important to remember that the O's will have a few of these bursts, since even really terrible teams (and he included the O's as a terrible team) will win 60-ish games. As for the season, he said his biggest concern, is if the O's find themselves remotely close to a WC position, and decide to buy at the deadline. If that happens, he believes it will turn out to be another Parra situation, where they give up a player, even if he's just another Zach Davies type. He said the O's are a really bad team, and even if they somehow manage to compete with the other mediocre WC hopefuls, they aren't good enough to advance against the Astros, Indians, Bo-Sox, etc. 

He said they need to blow it up. And dedicate themselves to losing. Asked about trading away guys, he said he's concerned, because A) a lame duck GM (DD) shouldn't be involved at all, and B ) who knows who is handling the "GM" duties, and is he/they (Brady/Brady-Buck) skilled enough to handle the trades. He specifically mentioned that comp picks are unacceptable as a return for the loss of Manny. He also said there is reason to be concerned that the O's would even know how to properly approach a rebuild.  

That's all I can remember, but he has obviously thought about the situation. And it was good to hear someone publicly share and agree with things that many of us have been posting.      

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Posted (edited)

10 hours ago, weird-O said:

I heard a little of the mid-day show on the Fan. I forget the name of the guy who was filling in. But he was asked about the O's recent hot streak, and how he sees the season unfolding. He said he isn't persuaded by the short spell of offensive power, and that it's important to remember that the O's will have a few of these bursts, since even really terrible teams (and he included the O's as a terrible team) will win 60-ish games. As for the season, he said his biggest concern, is if the O's find themselves remotely close to a WC position, and decide to buy at the deadline. If that happens, he believes it will turn out to be another Parra situation, where they give up a player, even if he's just another Zach Davies type. He said the O's are a really bad team, and even if they somehow manage to compete with the other mediocre WC hopefuls, they aren't good enough to advance against the Astros, Indians, Bo-Sox, etc. 

He said they need to blow it up. And dedicate themselves to losing. Asked about trading away guys, he said he's concerned, because A) a lame duck GM (DD) shouldn't be involved at all, and B ) who knows who is handling the "GM" duties, and is he/they (Brady/Brady-Buck) skilled enough to handle the trades. He specifically mentioned that comp picks are unacceptable as a return for the loss of Manny. He also said there is reason to be concerned that the O's would even know how to properly approach a rebuild.  

That's all I can remember, but he has obviously thought about the situation. And it was good to hear someone publicly share and agree with things that many of us have been posting.      

The only trouble with "blowing it up" and adopting a lose now approach, is that you'd better damn well be right. 

It's a sound approach on paper only. The game isn't played in a vaccuum, and for every example such as the Cubs or Astros, who were miserable before they both became very good, there are also teams such as the Padres, who have tried a number of different approaches to getting out of the cellar, or the White Sox, who have seemingly been in rebuild mode since the Russian Revolution. The Reds have also been rebuilding for a while now, and have very little show for their efforts, or lack of the same. Their farm system still lags far behind that of, say, the Phillies.

The Cubs and Astros did a lot of things right, but they were also lucky in a few instances. The Cubs hit the jackpot with Jake Arrieta, while people tend to forget that Houston had two consecutive whiffs with consecutive first-round picks in Mark Appel and Brady Aiken. Then there's Washington, which had the good fortune of having no-brainer No. 1 picks--Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper--fall in their laps in successive years.

And if the idea is to completely bottom out and draft a stud, that approach isn't fool-proof as it may seem, either. Of the No. 1 overall picks taken since 1987, only two, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Chipper Jones, are now Hall of Famers, although A-Rod, had his career not been tainted by scandal, was certainly on the straight and narrow to the Hall. Bryce Harper may one day join that elite group as well. Still, the percentages suggest that even players taken that high have a better chance of winding up total busts or in the Hall of Just Pretty Good. 

The peril of starting over is that every tank job isn't going to result in the Cubs or the Astros.

 

Edited by mdrunning

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