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Kim Jong Un’s canny strategy to confound Trump.

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...While it’s possible the North Korean dictator suddenly decided to pursue peace, more likely he was taking advantage of South Korea’s alarm at President Trump’s bellicose language throughout the winter.

South Korean officials and public began to worry more about the United States launching an attack than about Pyongyang, a remarkable sea change in opinion. Thus began Kim’s seduction of the South. Kim agreed to a joint Democratic People’s Republic of Korea-Republic of Korea team for the Pyeongchang Olympics, and then sent his sister and the DPRK Cheer Team to attend the opening ceremonies. Since then, Kim has played the more reasonable negotiating partner ...

The reality, Wolfsthal wrote, was that any kind of lasting agreement with North Korea would take months to negotiate and years to implement. If America, led by an impatient president, walks away in frustration, then North Korea can “paint the United States as the unreasonable party.” By raising American expectations and then engaging in periodic obstructionism, Kim could be setting the talks up to fail. If the administration takes the bait, Wolfsthal argued, that would suit Kim just fine.

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Interesting point.

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If the talks fail, we can expect Trump to implement a military-attack option... which would almost certainly end up with South Korea and its economy being significantly damaged.

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1 minute ago, regularguy said:

If the talks fail, we can expect Trump to implement a military-attack option... which would almost certainly end up with South Korea and its economy being significantly damaged.

Hope not.  I think Trump is too intimidated by Xi to take that path.  

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If Kim walks away, we keep the sanctions in place. If he still doesn’t give it up, we wait until their economy collapses and his people turn on him. Without China bailing them out, it’s a matter of time.

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John Bolton is the wild card. I'm sure the guy that still believes the invasion of Iraq was a stroke of genius has a brilliant plan in mind.

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41 minutes ago, mrdeltoid said:

If Kim walks away, we keep the sanctions in place. If he still doesn’t give it up, we wait until their economy collapses and his people turn on him. Without China bailing them out, it’s a matter of time.

Our sanctions are immaterial.  90% of NK trade is with China. That's the real leverage point. 

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1 hour ago, regularguy said:

If the talks fail, we can expect Trump to implement a military-attack option... which would almost certainly end up with South Korea and its economy being significantly damaged.

Or he will simply  resume calling him 'Lil Rocket Man' again.

 

Anyone who thinks Kim won't blast S.Korea  to kingdom come and retreat to his FORTIFIED  underground bunker where he'll eat pork yat gaw mein and laugh at 3 Stooges re runs,  hasn't heard about his fortified underground bunker and how very difficult it is to penetrate. 

He's had a lot more practice and time to think about this than the host of The Apprentice. 

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50 minutes ago, mrdeltoid said:

If Kim walks away, we keep the sanctions in place. If he still doesn’t give it up, we wait until their economy collapses and his people turn on him. Without China bailing them out, it’s a matter of time.

Or Kim can just wait until the American people turn on Donald Trump.

Which do you think will happen first?  Koreans turn on Kim or America turns on Donald Trump? 

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It's safe to say Donny is being led around by the nose as the world shakes its head.  We have no State Dept left. No diplomats in place with a knowledge of the Korean peninsula.  We act as if this is the first time NK has attempted rapprochement with the West. Considering the thugs in the WH, it probably is for them and their ignorant pawns.  So we'll be biotch slapped publicly, humiliated; an object of ridicule signaling to the world that we are a waning empire ripe for the taking. Then we respond with some expensive phony military action. People will be killed, Trump will make money, Americans will make excuses to avoid stating the fact that we have a nest of racketeers smelling up the WH. Are we having fun yet? Are we great yet? 

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"It Sure Looks Like John Bolton Is Trying to Sabotage the North Korea Talks"

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In several interviews, Bolton has cited former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s 2000 decision to abandon his nascent nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief as a model for the “complete denuclearization” of North Korea. As Bolton well knows, North Korea has specifically cited the Libya example as a reason why it should pursue a nuclear deterrent: 11 years after giving up his weapons program, Qaddafi was lying dead in a roadside ditch following a Western military intervention. It’s hard to imagine a choice of precedent from Bolton that would raise more red flags with the North Koreans.

Of course, that may be exactly why Bolton cited it. Bolton has advocated pre-emptive military action against North Korea and has sounded highly skeptical about the recent diplomatic opening. In an interview with Radio Free Asia just before Trump hired him, Bolton said he suspected the North Koreans were merely “buying time to perfect the last stages of the nuclear weapons program and their ballistic missile program” and was “skeptical that they’re serious.” Unless Kim were willing to commit to complete denuclearization, it could be a “very short meeting” with Trump, Bolton said. Bolton is smart enough to know that, in spite of his recent overtures, Kim does not actually intend to just hand over his nuclear weapons, at least now right away, and this week’s statements make that abundantly clear.

Bolton upped the ante again over the weekend, telling CNN that in addition to denuclearization, the talks would encompass North Korea’s ballistic missile program, its chemical and biological weapons, and other issues including the abductions of South Korean and Japanese citizens. He suggested the talks could result in North Korea becoming “a normal nation, to behave and interact with the rest of the world the way that South Korea does,” which could be read in Pyongyang, given Bolton’s record, as a suggestion of regime change. It was also, as Fred Kaplan points out, at odds with comments made the same day by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suggesting that North Korea might be allowed to keep its nuclear weapons if it gets rid of the long-range missiles that could strike the United States.

 

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Posted (edited)

3 hours ago, ms maggie said:

Our sanctions are immaterial.  90% of NK trade is with China. That's the real leverage point. 

China needs to cooperate as well. Like I said, they can't bail them out. If China changes up and helps NK again, it will hurt China in the world community.

Edited by mrdeltoid

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3 minutes ago, mrdeltoid said:

China needs to cooperate as well. 

No, not "as well". They are in the driver's seat. NK cannot survive without them. Us they don't need.

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3 hours ago, prodigalson1 said:

Or Kim can just wait until the American people turn on Donald Trump.

Which do you think will happen first?  Koreans turn on Kim or America turns on Donald Trump? 

If the NK citizens are starving now. If we start starving here in the US, and the government starts executing citizens for voicing their citizens, we may turn.

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4 minutes ago, ms maggie said:

No, not "as well". They are in the driver's seat. NK cannot survive without them. Us they don't need.

Well, you may get your wish, and they may continue to develop nukes that can reach us. I hope you don't.

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2 hours ago, FormerlySouthSide said:

"Nobel! Nobel! Nobel!"

Seems so long ago.....

You can't contain your glee can you? Do you realize Kim keeping his nukes is a bad thing? 

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3 hours ago, zenwalk said:

It's safe to say Donny is being led around by the nose as the world shakes its head.  We have no State Dept left. No diplomats in place with a knowledge of the Korean peninsula.  We act as if this is the first time NK has attempted rapprochement with the West. Considering the thugs in the WH, it probably is for them and their ignorant pawns.  So we'll be biotch slapped publicly, humiliated; an object of ridicule signaling to the world that we are a waning empire ripe for the taking. Then we respond with some expensive phony military action. People will be killed, Trump will make money, Americans will make excuses to avoid stating the fact that we have a nest of racketeers smelling up the WH. Are we having fun yet? Are we great yet? 

I wouldn't celebrate just yet.

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30 minutes ago, mrdeltoid said:

Well, you may get your wish, and they may continue to develop nukes that can reach us. I hope you don't.

What is "my wish"?

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6 hours ago, hst2 said:

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Interesting point.

And, you're rooting for Kim Jong Un, I suppose?

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1 hour ago, mrdeltoid said:

If the NK citizens are starving now. If we start starving here in the US, and the government starts executing citizens for voicing their citizens, we may turn.

Americans will 'turn' long before they get hungry let alone starving. They are so used to their comforts they will probably flip at $5.00 a gallon of gas or if their Air Conditioning fails. :lol:

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31 minutes ago, WKDWZD said:

 

Americans will 'turn' long before they get hungry let alone starving. They are so used to their comforts they will probably flip at $5.00 a gallon of gas or if their Air Conditioning fails. :lol:

Can’t argue with that. Not that you guys are any tougher.

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5 hours ago, prodigalson1 said:

Or he will simply  resume calling him 'Lil Rocket Man' again.

 

Anyone who thinks Kim won't blast S.Korea  to kingdom come and retreat to his FORTIFIED  underground bunker where he'll eat pork yat gaw mein and laugh at 3 Stooges re runs,  hasn't heard about his fortified underground bunker and how very difficult it is to penetrate. 

He's had a lot more practice and time to think about this than the host of The Apprentice. 

Hope it wasn't near where he was testing nukes ......

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52 minutes ago, Saticon3 said:

And, you're rooting for Kim Jong Un, I suppose?

And he will likely tell you are Russian ....

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1 hour ago, WKDWZD said:

 

Americans will 'turn' long before they get hungry let alone starving. They are so used to their comforts they will probably flip at $5.00 a gallon of gas or if their Air Conditioning fails. :lol:

 

44 minutes ago, mrdeltoid said:

Can’t argue with that. Not that you guys are any tougher.

Petrol is already twice that a gallon here and Domestic Air Conditioning is very rare in the UK. ;)

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