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workerbee

Rolling Stones song goes... political?

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On 5/18/2018 at 1:57 PM, soulflower said:

What’s lost is the question of ‘Probable Cause’. 

Trump associating with shady people like Cohen, Sater, Manafort, Page etc, IMO seems like enough Probable Cause for the Feds to open a Counter Intelligence investigation. 

Apparently, George Papadopolous bragging about  being contacted by Russians is what led to the FBI’s investigation. 

Trump wants us to believe that the investigations were politically motivated but to believe that, you have to ignore the shady bunch of people he associates with...

The question of probable cause has to do with whether or not this got started by Clinton's opposition research.   If that is what happened then people are going to jail.

It is hard to believe that people would be dumb enough to do something like this.  The only way you could contain it was if Clinton won.   If you thought Clinton was an easy win then why do something so reckless?   

I'll wait and see.  

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20 minutes ago, SemiAuto said:

The question of probable cause has to do with whether or not this got started by Clinton's opposition research. 

It didn't.

Manafort, Page, Sater, and others in Trump's inner-circle were on the FBI's radar long before he ran for President

https://www.buzzfeed.com/anthonycormier/felix-sater-trump-russia-undercover-us-spy?utm_term=.lu8MqD4y0J#.mr517vW9a8

Trump chose to associate with shady characters. You're not curious to know why?

The FBI simultaneously had a counter-intelligence investigation into Clinton's email server by the way...

Edited by soulflower

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11 minutes ago, soulflower said:

It didn't.

Manafort, Page, Sater, and others in Trump's inner-circle were on the FBI's radar long before he ran for President

https://www.buzzfeed.com/anthonycormier/felix-sater-trump-russia-undercover-us-spy?utm_term=.lu8MqD4y0J#.mr517vW9a8

Trump chose to associate with shady characters. You're not curious to know why?

The FBI simultaneously had a counter-intelligence investigation into Clinton's email server by the way...

That is a better explanation.   With friends like these you're going to end up being investigated.   Some of it looks a bit like a set up but not enough to matter.   

C'mon... Carter Page is basket case, not some sort of super spook.   Manafort was a known issue about the Ukraine deals but they didn't do anything about because they thought he was too small of a fish.    Not so small now.  

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3 minutes ago, SemiAuto said:

That is a better explanation.   With friends like these you're going to end up being investigated.   Some of it looks a bit like a set up but not enough to matter.   

C'mon... Carter Page is basket case, not some sort of super spook.   Manafort was a known issue about the Ukraine deals but they didn't do anything about because they thought he was too small of a fish.    Not so small now.  

Well ever since the early 2000s, Trump has associated with Russian and Ukranian business people. 

So between Trump's ties to Russians and the US Intelligence community's paranoia about Putin, there was bound to be some counter-intelligence scrutiny over the people Trump associates with. 

TPM.com covered this conflict of interest between Trump's business interests and Law Enforcement:

In the late 90s and early aughts, Donald Trump ran out of lenders. A string of bankruptcies on top of numerous ventures where he walked away unscathed and lenders lost their shirts convinced every major US bank to stop lending to him. The only exception is DeutscheBank, which of course is not a US bank. This put Trump’s whole family business under great strain. In response he increasingly took capital from abroad, especially from Russia and other post-Soviet successor states. Whether this was the influence of lawyer Michael Cohen or his almost decade long business partnership with Felix Sater and his coterie doesn’t really matter for present purposes. It did happen. None of this is speculation. All of this happened. What we don’t know is quite the degree of his dependence on money from the former Soviet Union, both for investment capital and for the purchase the numerous apartment units which make up his ubiquitous high-rises. None of this is illegal or wrong. Foreign capital is pervasive in the New York City area real estate market.

Trump gets into this world. He associates with these people. He starts thinking like they do. Perhaps along the way, people in this murky Russian world where oligarchs and mafiosos and legitimate businesspeople are hard to differentiate and perhaps not really different at all, find out about his dirty laundry. Nothing extravagant like sex tapes. Just the more garden variety stuff business associates find out about each other from long association. We know Trump is highly secretive. His myriad partners and investors likely know a lot of those secrets. 

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-innocent-explanation

 

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So you start talking to Carter Page and Papi the Drunk?   That is the other part I don't get.   These two are one stooge short of a comedy show.   This is not the stuff of grand conspiracies and if they were you'd have to be a moron to get involved with it.

Manafort and Sader are old news.   To start a counter intelligence op based on those two 100 days before the election looks convenient but on the other hand they were convenient for reason.   They're shady as bleep.

Edited by SemiAuto

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1 minute ago, SemiAuto said:

So you start talking to Carter Page and Papi the Drunk?   That is the other part I don't get.   These two are one stooge short of a comedy show.   This is not the stuff of grand conspiracies and if they were you'd have to be a moron to get involved with it.

Tell that to Novartis, AT&T, Israel, the Saudis, Qatar, etc. 

Trump's people are clearly corrupt. They're just not good at hiding it. 

Why any business or government does shady stuff with them, I don't understand. 

Maybe they just know there's no political accountability in the US currently. Dems are powerless and republicans refuse to Check Trump...

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Here is James Clapper not helping.  

Quote

Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told CNN's Don Lemon Thursday night that the president's claim that the Obama administration spied on his campaign is "hyperbole" but if it is true, it is a "good thing."

"They [the Obama admin's FBI] may have had someone who was talking to them in the campaign, but, you know, the focus here... is not on the campaign, per se, but what the Russians were doing," Clapper said. 

Yikes!   This guy already has a credibility problem.   

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33 minutes ago, SemiAuto said:

Here is James Clapper not helping.  

Yikes!   This guy already has a credibility problem.   

He’s not wrong though. 

The people Trump associated with warrented scrutiny of his associates from the Intelligence Community. If a foriegn government was trying to infiltrate Trump’s inner circle or Blackmail him, those are the kinds of things the FBI should have been looking into. 

OTOH, given the FBI’s history, I’m open to the possibility that they overreached and maybe crossed some lines in terms of civil liberties. 

They third possibility, that the FBI was attempting to harm Trump’s campaign and help Clinton, is nonsensical given how badly the FBI treated Hillary publicly...

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If a GOP administration had spied on the campaign of a DNC candidate the hyperbole would be nuclear.   C'mon!

Like I said, Manafort and Sater are a convenient excuse if you want one.  It the excuse was to watch the Russians then you'll get away with it.   If the excuse was to watch the Trump campaign then that probably crosses the line.      

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2 hours ago, SemiAuto said:

If a GOP administration had spied on the campaign of a DNC candidate the hyperbole would be nuclear.   C'mon!

Like I said, Manafort and Sater are a convenient excuse if you want one.  It the excuse was to watch the Russians then you'll get away with it.   If the excuse was to watch the Trump campaign then that probably crosses the line.      

You left out Flynn, Papadopulos and Page as well. How many more cockroaches are we supposed to ignore oh neutral one?  This campaign and administration has Russia on the brain and America needs to know why. The excuse making machine is working overtime for you guys. Oh, you're neutral. I keep forgetting.

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2 hours ago, SemiAuto said:

If a GOP administration had spied on the campaign of a DNC candidate the hyperbole would be nuclear.   C'mon!

Like I said, Manafort and Sater are a convenient excuse if you want one.  It the excuse was to watch the Russians then you'll get away with it.   If the excuse was to watch the Trump campaign then that probably crosses the line.      

That’s like saying, “my hiring a known Mob Hitman to work security for me is a convenient excuse for the police Tapping my phones”. 

I have plenty of criticisms of the Deep State/National Security State myself. So I don’t enjoy defending them.

But do you seriously want to argue that Trump didn’t bring this on himself based on the extremely Shady characters he surrounds himself with? I know you’re smarter than that and I don’t believe you’re super partisan...

Edited by soulflower

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4 minutes ago, soulflower said:

That’s like saying, “my hiring a known Mob Hitman to work security for me is a convenient excuse for Tapping my phones”. 

I have plenty of criticisms of the Deep State/National Security State myself. So I don’t enjoy defending them.

But do you seriously want to argue that Trump didn’t bring this on himself based on the extremely Shady characters he surrounds himself with? I know you’re smarter than that and I don’t believe you’re super partisan...

HA!  Love the hit men comparison. 

Deep state is the insurgent term for institutions doing their jobs. I don't enjoy defending them either but we all unite as Americans when the country is under attack even from within.

You'd have to be totally oblivious or an insurgent to ignore how filthy this administration is. 

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1 hour ago, zenwalk said:

HA!  Love the hit men comparison. 

Deep state is the insurgent term for institutions doing their jobs. I don't enjoy defending them either but we all unite as Americans when the country is under attack even from within.

You'd have to be totally oblivious or an insurgent to ignore how filthy this administration is. 

Don’t get me wrong.

I do believe there are forces within the National Security State that try to pressure or manipulate Presidents into sticking with the Status Quo and not making substantial changes to current policies. 

Call it whatever you want. I was calling it the “Deep State” long before Trumpers appropriated the term for themselves. 

Some of this stuff may have been done to scare Trump into taking a more confrontational approach towards Russia. Maybe they didn’t anticipate that Trump would trust Putin more than his own spies.  

That’s more believable than the nonsense about the FBI colluding with Democrats. The FBI has traditionally been a rightwing/conservative agency. That didn’t change under Obama. 

Edited by soulflower

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3 minutes ago, soulflower said:

Don’t get me wrong.

I do believe there are forces within the National Security State that try to pressure or manipulate into Presidents to sticking with the Status Quo and not making substantial changes to current policies. 

Call it whatever you want. I was calling it the “Deep State” long before Trumpers appropriated the term for themselves. 

Some of this stuff may have been done to scare Trump into taking a more confrontational approach towards Russia. Maybe they didn’t anticipate that Trump would trust Putin more than his own spies.  

That’s more believable than the nonsense about the FBI colluding with Democrats. The FBI has traditionally been a rightwing/conservative agency. That didn’t change under Obama. 

Power is crack cocaine in DC.  I understand your point about "deep state" but traditionally the deep state view doesn't solely serve an individual so much as it reflects the institution's view/mission of itself. The Bush administration did long term damage by adding a political/loyalty aspect to the various departments which evidently has only worsened over time (at least in partisan republican minds). Republican insurgents must be brought to justice because political relations are only going to worsen into violence. The damage the GOP is doing makes Nixon look tame by comparison. I don't want to live in a republican built fascist thugocracy which is where this is all leading.

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48 minutes ago, zenwalk said:

Power is crack cocaine in DC.  I understand your point about "deep state" but traditionally the deep state view doesn't solely serve an individual so much as it reflects the institution's view/mission of itself. 

Absolutely. I'm not saying there's some small group of individuals pulling strings. It's more about each government agency having their own philosophy and agenda and resisting change no matter who is in the White House.

Plus the revolving door between those government agencies, the DC news media, Defense Contractors, Think Tanks, Bankers, etc, also combine to make it extremely difficult to make substantial changes to National Security policies or Foreign Policy. President Obama called it "The Blob". Whether people call it "The Blob" or the "Deep State", it's the same concept. 

And I agree on Bush politicizing these agencies but you could even argue that it goes farther back. Maybe to the Nixon and Reagan administrations...

Edited by soulflower

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22 minutes ago, soulflower said:

Absolutely. I'm not saying there's some small group of individuals pulling strings. It's more about each government agency having their own philosophy and agenda and resisting change no matter who is in the White House.

Plus the revolving door between those government agencies, the DC news media, Defense Contractors, Think Tanks, Bankers, etc, also combine to make it extremely difficult to make substantial changes to National Security policies or Foreign Policy. President Obama called it "The Blob". Whether people call it "The Blob" or the "Deep State", it's the same concept. 

And I agree on Bush politicizing these agencies but you could even argue that it goes farther back. Maybe to the Nixon and Reagan administrations...

JEdgar Hoover probably comes the closest to an old example but he didn't really serve a political agenda so much as being an entity that had been around long enough to accrue a massive amount of power to deploy the FBI as he saw fit.

Edited by zenwalk

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3 minutes ago, zenwalk said:

JEdgar Hoover probably comes the closest to an old example but he didn't really serve a political agenda so much as being an entity that had been around long enough to accrue a massive amount of power to deploy the FBI as he saw fit.

The Dulles Bros left their mark on the State Department and CIA. 

The Defense Department since the 1950's has been a big revolving door between the government and Defense Contractors.

Whistleblowers are forced into obscurity while those who don't rock the boat (ie Gina Haspel) get promoted...

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19 hours ago, soulflower said:

That’s like saying, “my hiring a known Mob Hitman to work security for me is a convenient excuse for the police Tapping my phones”. 

I have plenty of criticisms of the Deep State/National Security State myself. So I don’t enjoy defending them.

But do you seriously want to argue that Trump didn’t bring this on himself based on the extremely Shady characters he surrounds himself with? I know you’re smarter than that and I don’t believe you’re super partisan...

You know full well that what Manafort and Sater did was well before the campaign.   I understand it is a good excuse as leverage so I doubt this will go anywhere short of someone admitting it was done for political reasons.   That would be a self invitation to a jail cell so I don't see anyone doing that even if it did happen.

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