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cprenegade

New Washington Post poll

126 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

Still all good news for the incumbent.  His approval rating went up from the last poll, and he reached 50% or better in all potential head to head matchups.  Ben Jealous leads the pack on the democratic side, but interestingly enough the guy who the polls say has the best chance to beat Hogan, Rich Madeleno, runs a distant third.  Not a lock, but clearly it is Hogan's race to lose.  

Quote

 

Three weeks before their primary, Maryland Democrats remain largely undecided about whom to nominate for governor, according to a new Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, in a race overshadowed by record popularity for Republican Gov. Larry Hogan.  Hogan’s broad support — nearly two-thirds of Democrats approve of his job performance — defies a national political climate in which opposition to President Trump has energized Democrats. The governor’s 71 percent job-approval rating among all Marylanders matches his previous record high, and residents are more optimistic about the state’s direction than in any Washington Post poll over the past quarter-century, the survey finds.

Hogan leads each Democrat by at least 10 percentage points in possible general-election matchups. Despite months of campaigning, multiple forums and two televised debates, none of the seven major Democratic contenders have distinguished themselves as the most experienced or electable, the poll finds.

“The thing that I was most struck by . . . is just how strong the support is and how diverse the support is for Hogan, regardless of who the opponent is,” said Michael J. Hanmer, associate professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland’s Center for American Politics and Citizenship, which conducted the poll with The Post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/post-umd-poll-jealous-baker-lead-in-democratic-race-overshadowed-by-hogan/2018/06/04/b6ad4586-6800-11e8-bf8c-f9ed2e672adf_story.html?utm_term=.8b7980714679

 

 

Edited by cprenegade

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Posted (edited)

No change from Goucher poll against Jealous that was taken in April  

 

Then there’s this. Remember   40% of Democrats are undecided, and haven’t even tuned in.

From your link:

 

Quote

Undecided Democratic voter Mike Rubin, 45, of Kensington says he has not fully tuned in to the primary, in part because he thinks Hogan has done a generally good job and “governed from the middle.” Another reason, he said, is that the Democrats in the race “are fairly homogeneous on the issues.”

At the same time, he said he probably will vote for a Democrat in November — a vote that is “more for the party than against Hogan.”

...Still, a significant share of Hogan’s support is soft, with about a quarter of those who approve of him saying they would choose Baker or Jealous in a general-election matchup. The poll finds widespread antipathy toward Trump in the state, and some voters say that could lead them to vote for the Democratic nominee in November despite being generally satisfied with Hogan.

Edited by Marshan Man

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1 hour ago, Marshan Man said:

Then there’s this. Remember   40% of Democrats are undecided, and haven’t even tuned in.

Sounds like an enthusiasm gap

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3 hours ago, Marshan Man said:

No change from Goucher poll against Jealous that was taken in April  

 

Then there’s this. Remember   40% of Democrats are undecided, and haven’t even tuned in.

From your link:

 

If you read the article a lot of that 40% is voting Hogan in November.

Undecided is winning. That shows also the quality of candidates.

IMO if Hogan encouraged people to write his name in he would win the democratic primary.

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Posted (edited)

12 hours ago, cprenegade said:

"Hogan’s broad support — nearly two-thirds of Democrats approve of his job performance...."

Ouch! That's got to be demoralizing for the Democrats contending for the job.

I still haven't figured out which of them I'm voting for in the primary, but I'll likely vote for Hogan in the general. I've gotten phone calls and mailings from the Madaleno campaign (and no others!), so I might go with him.

Edited by regularguy
formatting goof

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9 hours ago, Dinglehopper said:

Sounds like an enthusiasm gap

I have a feeling that the “Blue Wave” won’t touch Maryland this November. 

There just aren’t enough competitive races and most Dems in this State are happy with Hogan. 

Nationally though, it should be a good election year for Dems...

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11 hours ago, Marshan Man said:

No change from Goucher poll against Jealous that was taken in April  

 

Then there’s this. Remember   40% of Democrats are undecided, and haven’t even tuned in.

From your link:

 

Some of that is true, which is why I said it is no lock, just a decided advantage for Hogan.  The 40% undecided is within the democrat primary.  When a potential matchup is put out there, only around %10 or a little better give no opinion.  Whoever the democratic nominee is they will have to change the minds of some of the Hogan supporters as well as nearly sweep the no opinion vote.  Not impossible, but a fairly tough task considering there is not one dem out there with significant name recognition now that Kamenitz is gone.  

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10 minutes ago, soulflower said:

I have a feeling that the “Blue Wave” won’t touch Maryland this November. 

There just aren’t enough competitive races and most Dems in this State are happy with Hogan. 

Nationally though, it should be a good election year for Dems...

I agree.  The lack of competitive races will probably curb voter enthusiasm and turnout.  The only statewide race where the outcome will likely be less than double digits is the governor's race.  None of the house races in MD will be competitive, and the senate race will be a landslide.  The democrat nominee for governor would benefit turnout wise from at least some of the races being up in the air.  

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9 hours ago, Dinglehopper said:

Sounds like an enthusiasm gap

It's a name recognition gap. I think people are definitely enthusiastic, but it's June, People are graduating, traveling, getting ready for summer vacations. No one's paying attention. 

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20 minutes ago, soulflower said:

I have a feeling that the “Blue Wave” won’t touch Maryland this November. 

There just aren’t enough competitive races and most Dems in this State are happy with Hogan. 

Nationally though, it should be a good election year for Dems...

I think people are excited about all the new candidates running. Lots of signs in the city. 

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15 minutes ago, cprenegade said:

Some of that is true, which is why I said it is no lock, just a decided advantage for Hogan.  The 40% undecided is within the democrat primary.  When a potential matchup is put out there, only around %10 or a little better give no opinion.  Whoever the democratic nominee is they will have to change the minds of some of the Hogan supporters as well as nearly sweep the no opinion vote.  Not impossible, but a fairly tough task considering there is not one dem out there with significant name recognition now that Kamenitz is gone.  

That's what a primary and 5 months of campaigning are for.. Hogan should probably have more of an advantage with his approval rating, 

Anyway the trend's still moving in the right direction....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/md/maryland_governor_hogan_vs_jealous-6273.html

 

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5 minutes ago, Marshan Man said:

I think people are excited about all the new candidates running. Lots of signs in the city. 

I’m beginning to pay attention to the Baltimore County Executive race. The Democratic Primary should be interesting 

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28 minutes ago, soulflower said:

I have a feeling that the “Blue Wave” won’t touch Maryland this November. 

There just aren’t enough competitive races and most Dems in this State are happy with Hogan. 

Nationally though, it should be a good election year for Dems...

Yeah, pretty much every year is a "Blue wave" in Maryland given the makeup of the state and the gerrymandering.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/md/maryland_governor_hogan_vs_baker-6272.html

Hogan looks pretty safe in November. Should win comfortably. 

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33 minutes ago, soulflower said:

I have a feeling that the “Blue Wave” won’t touch Maryland this November. 

There just aren’t enough competitive races and most Dems in this State are happy with Hogan. 

Nationally though, it should be a good election year for Dems...

If Hogan wins what next?  He does not seem to have the outsized personality for Presidential consideration.  But a Republican that can win in Maryland will always get Natìonal attention 

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3 minutes ago, Marshan Man said:

That's what a primary and 5 months of campaigning are for.. Hogan should probably have more of an advantage with his approval rating, 

Anyway the trend's still moving in the right direction....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/md/maryland_governor_hogan_vs_jealous-6273.html

 

The spread is moving in the dem direction as some of the undecideds decide to go dem.  Hogan is a known quantity.  If you are undecided about him now, you are looking for someone else to vote for.  Not all of the undecideds will fall that way.   In Maryland with it's dem makeup I fully expect the spread to go down to 5% or less by game time.  But it's also the first time Hogan topped the magic %50 number.  I certainly wouldn't make him a lock, but if I'm betting I'm putting my money on Hogan.  It's still his to lose.  

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I'm banking on Hogan losing his lead to the dem candidate by late September. 

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Posted (edited)

2 minutes ago, Marshan Man said:

I'm banking on Hogan losing his lead to the dem candidate by late September. 

Yeah.  Nobody here does not know you think that. 

He should win but with Trump and this political environment I would not bet money either way.  Plus Hogan does not seem aggressive enough for me.  I do however think he is a genuinely good person and a solid leader.  Just not polically aggressive enough and seems to fence sit too much.  

Edited by Dinglehopper

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43 minutes ago, soulflower said:

I’m beginning to pay attention to the Baltimore County Executive race. The Democratic Primary should be interesting 

Three very viable Democrats running for County Exec. Lots of signs out for each of them.

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35 minutes ago, Dinglehopper said:

Just not polically  [politically] aggressive enough and seems to fence sit too much.  

That's why I like him! A rare centrist in an increasingly-polarized political environment.

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41 minutes ago, Dinglehopper said:

Yeah.  Nobody here does not know you think that. 

He should win but with Trump and this political environment I would not bet money either way.  Plus Hogan does not seem aggressive enough for me.  I do however think he is a genuinely good person and a solid leader.  Just not polically aggressive enough and seems to fence sit too much.  

 

2 minutes ago, regularguy said:

That's why I like him! A rare centrist in an increasingly-polarized political environment.

Yeah not sure what more he could be doing. The legislature is dominated by Democrats. He is a Republican in name only anyway and I'm perfectly okay with that. At least he is not a Democrat. I've had enough of the Maryland Dem machine to last a lifetime. 

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6 minutes ago, Dystopia said:

 He is a Republican in name only anyway and I'm perfectly okay with that.

Centrist Democrats get called "DINOs". Maybe it's time for the RINOs and DINOs to jointly form a new party.

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8 minutes ago, regularguy said:

Centrist Democrats get called "DINOs". Maybe it's time for the RINOs and DINOs to jointly form a new party.

I'm in!

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28 minutes ago, regularguy said:

Three very viable Democrats running for County Exec. Lots of signs out for each of them.

Almond and Brochin are my favorites for now 

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Posted (edited)

18 minutes ago, regularguy said:

Centrist Democrats get called "DINOs". Maybe it's time for the RINOs and DINOs to jointly form a new party.

It’s nearly impossible to form a viable Third-party. 

Plus, recent elections show that Mainstream/Establishment Dems and Republicans are winning more often than the Far Left or Far Right candidates.

There’s no signs of a Democratic Tea Party Movement so far in 2017-2018 election results...

Edited by soulflower

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34 minutes ago, regularguy said:

Three very viable Democrats running for County Exec. Lots of signs out for each of them.

Have you caught the Johnny O ad ..??

At the end I was waiting for the kids to ask him to buy them some beer.

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