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BmoreCounty99

Predictions for State Finals

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The Finals are set and there are some new teams and of course the regulars. There seems to be some good match-ups this year. What are your thoughts?

 

4A

Sherwood vs. Linganore

 

3A

Wilde Lake vs. Westlake

 

2A

River Hill vs. Eastern Tech

 

1A

Dunbar vs. Fort Hill

 

State the winner and predicted score and explanation if need be.

 

Scout124, I am expecting a great write-up for each of these games.

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4A

Linganore - I think their defense will win it for them.

 

3A

 

Wilde Lake - I think those kids are on a mission to send Coach Duvall out a winner

 

2A

 

My gut says River Hill is going to win but I'm pulling for Eastern Tech

 

1A

 

Poets 3 peat in the Tavon's last game in a Dunbar uniform.

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I tried to stay away from WL because I didn't want to seem like a HOMER, and I had my reservations, but I think the youngsters just might pull it out for good Ole Duvall. He deserves it.

 

I will stay with the other picks since they are still on course to get their titles.

 

4A - Linganore: Too much for 4A this year and will make life miserable for 3A next year. Early favorites to win 3A if what I hear is true about the team's main contributors consists mostly of Juniors. Too much Linganore. Too much team speed and pursuit on "D" (they take great angles on ball carriers). Linganore's O Line will take over and part Sherwood's D Line as they have done to so many other teams this year. Linganore by at least 2 scores.

 

3A - THE LAKE: More of an emotional pick

 

2A - River Hill: They have the talent, but Camp not being 100% will mean that Redd will probably have to carry the load again. Not sure if this will help or hurt. The secondary will be tested with Camp not being 100% as well. And this is a rematch and payback for E. Tech. This should be a very competitive game unless Redd really makes a name for himself. River Hill in a close game.

 

1A - Dunbar: This will be close for a quarter, but by the end of the second quarter, I think Dunbar will have started to pull away. Fort Hill will go down, but they will go down swinging. Tall order for the guys from Western Maryland. Great season Fort Hill, but I think Dunbar will win this one by at least 3 scores. Austin and Farr will have a monster game. If it weren't for this being the last time they suit up as Poets, this game might be a little closer, but I think they will want to finish their high school careers' at M&T, in front of Baltimore, in the state title game with a bang. But the Poets will know they were in a game, I expect Fort Hill to bring it.

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I like Sherwood in the 4A

Wilde Lake in 3A-- Kids are on a misson to send Coach Duvall out with a ring

Dunbar quick and early in the 1A

 

As for the 2A I still say RH in a close battle but the coaching staff at ET is IMO the best in the state.. If anyone can put together a plan to stop RH it is Mesaros. I thought last year RH by at least 14 and 10 more seconds ET wins that game.... Good to see the state saved the best game for last....

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While im pulling for Wilde Lake, I think people should know this about Westlake: People seem to be focused about how the Wilde Lake kids want to send Duvall out as a winner, but like Duvall, long time Westlake coach Dominic Zaccarelli plans to retire after this year. I think Coach Zaccarelli has taken Westlake to the playoffs 12 out of the past 14 seasons, but Westlake has only been to the state final once during that time (1996), and they lost. Those kids want to send their coach out as a winner too....

 

AND Westlake has been the underdog in every game they have played this postseason and it seems like they are the underdog again this week.

 

The Westlake kids have also apparently been through alot emotionally this season with several deaths in the families of some of those kids. Digital sports says:

 

"Several deaths to family members have marred Westlake's season, seemingly making funerals as common as games this season. But through it all, the team has found a way to stick together and keep on winning.

 

"I'm just so excited for the kids and excited for the coaching staff," Zaccarelli said. "Our kids, everyone's gone through a lot.

 

"With all that type of emotion and things like that our kids are really, what can you say? I keep saying resilient, it's way beyond that. And they have a will that they don't want to lose. They don't want to go home and that's something that's really special."

 

Again im pulling for Wilde Lake, but it seems like there will be some heavy emotions weighing down on both teams coming into this game, which should make the game even better....

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3A - THE LAKE: More of an emotional pick

 

 

which lake? lol

 

 

1A - TA closes out his high school career with a field day & Dunbar will have a running clock before this one is over and Fort Hill will probably score a late touchdown or 2 with the backups in....

Dunbar 46 - Fort Hill 20

 

2A - Too many people on these boards seem to over-support River Hill.... and underestimate Eastern Tech.... Camp, or No Camp... an upset is waiting to happen... River Hill will get outcoached in this game... (i see Gbor & Conners having the game of their life running the ball in this game).

Eastern Tech 19 - River Hill 14

 

3A - Both teams have a lot to gain and a coach to lose this year... this IMO will be the closest game, and can go either way...

Wilde Lake 24 - Westlake 21

 

4A - Wise's wins over Roosevelt & Flowers were devastating.. but not really that big of "upsets" (they lost to both teams by a COMBINED 3 points in the regular season)...

With that said... If Sherwood plays Linganore like they did Wise.... this may get ugly.... regardless, both teams have scored three TDs in every game except one, and BOTH teams have pitched 4 shutouts, but after 4 years straight of losing in the playoffs to the eventual state champ, i dont see Sherwood stretching that streak to 5 in this shootout....

Sherwood 41 - Linganore 35

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bmagic33 stated, "1A - TA closes out his high school career with a field day & Dunbar will have a running clock before this one is over and Fort Hill will probably score a late touchdown or 2 with the backups in....

Dunbar 46 - Fort Hill 20"

 

 

Massey has Dunbar as a 26-20 favorite when "matching up" the two teams.

 

For the fun of it, I played with some numbers to get an average regarding actual scores and Massey predictions for ten games this season.

 

If my calculations are correct, Dunbar scored an average of 3.3 points more per game than predicted by Massey and they gave up 1.6 points more per game than predicted by Massey.

 

Once again, if my calculations are correct, Fort Hill scored an average of 0.1 points (rounded to zero) per game more than Massey predicted and they gave up 3.3 points less per game than Massey predicted.

 

With the above being said, I added the additional 3.3 points to Dunbar's predicted score against Fort Hill because Dunbar has averaged 3.3 points more than Massey has predicted. I then subtracted those 3.3 points because Fort Hill gave up an average of 3.3 points less than Massey predicted, so Dunbar ends up with 26 points.

 

For Fort Hill, I added the addition 1.6 points to the predicted score because Dunbar gave up an average of 1.6 points more than Massey has predicted. Fort Hill's average predicted score was 0.1, so no additional points were added. Fort Hill ends up with 22 points (rounded up).

 

The bottom line: Dunbar is the favorite according to Massey 26-20. Based on Massey averages for both teams throughout the season I see a game that could be 26-22.

 

Is Dunbar a GREAT team? Absolutely! At the same time, Fort Hill is very fundamentally sound with some nice talent. Fort Hill has had a much tougher road in the playoffs with wins against one of the top three teams in 1A - Allegany - and probably the fourth best team in 1A - Joppatowne. In all honestly, Dunbar whooped up on a team in the semi-finals that would have not made a true 1-16 format...a team that lost to a 1A team in the west region that did not make the playoffs 42-16. The clock will not be running - guaranteed! (If in the end I'm wrong, I will admit it, but I won't until it happens.)

 

The weather should not be a factor in this game; the ten day forecast is calling for temps around 40 and partly sunny skies. A turnover "here or there" or a big play "here or there" could be the determining factors in this game.

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bmagic33 stated, "1A - TA closes out his high school career with a field day & Dunbar will have a running clock before this one is over and Fort Hill will probably score a late touchdown or 2 with the backups in....

Dunbar 46 - Fort Hill 20"

 

 

Massey has Dunbar as a 26-20 favorite when "matching up" the two teams.

 

For the fun of it, I played with some numbers to get an average regarding actual scores and Massey predictions for ten games this season.

 

If my calculations are correct, Dunbar scored an average of 3.3 points more per game than predicted by Massey and they gave up 1.6 points more per game than predicted by Massey.

 

Once again, if my calculations are correct, Fort Hill scored an average of 0.1 points (rounded to zero) per game more than Massey predicted and they gave up 3.3 points less per game than Massey predicted.

 

With the above being said, I added the additional 3.3 points to Dunbar's predicted score against Fort Hill because Dunbar has averaged 3.3 points more than Massey has predicted. I then subtracted those 3.3 points because Fort Hill gave up an average of 3.3 points less than Massey predicted, so Dunbar ends up with 26 points.

 

For Fort Hill, I added the addition 1.6 points to the predicted score because Dunbar gave up an average of 1.6 points more than Massey has predicted. Fort Hill's average predicted score was 0.1, so no additional points were added. Fort Hill ends up with 22 points (rounded up).

 

The bottom line: Dunbar is the favorite according to Massey 26-20. Based on Massey averages for both teams throughout the season I see a game that could be 26-22.

 

 

 

 

So you are saying that Dunbar will win by less than a TD? Now being that I am a betting man, I will give you Fort Hill and 14 points, how about a wager? Now this is without me seeing Fort Hill play in person. Obviously you are a Fort Hill guy, I'm not even a Dunbar guy but I'm rolling with the Poets! If I saw this game being close I would be the 1st. To say it, don't see it and willing to put my money where my mouth is!

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I'm not a betting person Greyhound, but there will not be a running clock in this game.

 

The close score is based on the Massey ratings. If you're not familiar with them, check them out. You can even match up teams. Is Massey perfect? No, but I think you'll be amazed at how close some of the predictions have been throughout the course of the year.

 

Should Dunbar win this game? Absolutely! However, don't get carried away with Dunbar's thrashing of Catoctin. Fort Hill beat a Mountain Ridge team that beat Cactoctin 42-16...Mountain Ridge is a 1A team in the west that did not make the playoffs with a 7-3 record because of the current regional playoff format in Maryland.

 

Let's look at the one common opponent - BCC. Dunbar beat them 30-18. Fort Hill beat them 14-6.

 

Let's look further at the fact that Dunbar lost to Gwynn Park during week #1. Fort Hill beat Douglass of PG - a team that beat Gwynn Park by two touchdowns.

 

Does this mean Dunbar should lose next week? Absolutely not! They have great talent and play well together. However, there will not be a running clock as suggested by some on this forum - guaranteed! As I've said before, if I have to "eat crow" after the game next Saturday, than so be it.

 

This game will be much closer than many anticipate.

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I'm not a betting person Greyhound, but there will not be a running clock in this game.

 

The close score is based on the Massey ratings. If you're not familiar with them, check them out. You can even match up teams. Is Massey perfect? No, but I think you'll be amazed at how close some of the predictions have been throughout the course of the year.

 

Should Dunbar win this game? Absolutely! However, don't get carried away with Dunbar's thrashing of Catoctin. Fort Hill beat a Mountain Ridge team that beat Cactoctin 42-16...Mountain Ridge is a 1A team in the west that did not make the playoffs with a 7-3 record because of the current regional playoff format in Maryland.

 

Let's look at the one common opponent - BCC. Dunbar beat them 30-18. Fort Hill beat them 14-6.

 

Let's look further at the fact that Dunbar lost to Gwynn Park during week #1. Fort Hill beat Douglass of PG - a team that beat Gwynn Park by two touchdowns.

 

Does this mean Dunbar should lose next week? Absolutely not! They have great talent and play well together. However, there will not be a running clock as suggested by some on this forum - guaranteed! As I've said before, if I have to "eat crow" after the game next Saturday, than so be it.

 

This game will be much closer than many anticipate.

 

Count me in as one who doesn't subscribe the "let's compare common opponents" way of thinking because it is very skewed. Those games 5 and 6 weeks ago will have absolutely no bearing on what happens Saturday between Dunbar and Fort Hill.

 

As Meth always says, styles make fights. The winner will be determined on which team makes the fewest mistakes and which team can impose their "style" on the other.....not because team A beat team B 3 months ago.

 

If your trying to say that the game will be close, that's fine. Provide some real analysis like Ft Hill's defensive scheme can keep Dunbar from getting outside on their toss sweeps and off tackle runs or Ft Hill offensive will eat up clock and keep Dunbar's offense on the sideline.

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The Finals are set and there are some new teams and of course the regulars. There seems to be some good match-ups this year. What are your thoughts?

 

4A

Sherwood vs. Linganore

 

3A

Wilde Lake vs. Westlake

 

2A

River Hill vs. Eastern Tech

 

1A

Dunbar vs. Fort Hill

 

State the winner and predicted score and explanation if need be.

 

Scout124, I am expecting a great write-up for each of these games.

 

 

4A-Linganore

 

3A-Wilde Lake

 

2A-River Hill

 

1A-Dunbar

 

(Baltimore region takes (3) of the 4 titles next weekend)

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Count me in as one who doesn't subscribe the "let's compare common opponents" way of thinking because it is very skewed. Those games 5 and 6 weeks ago will have absolutely no bearing on what happens Saturday between Dunbar and Fort Hill.

 

As Meth always says, styles make fights. The winner will be determined on which team makes the fewest mistakes and which team can impose their "style" on the other.....not because team A beat team B 3 months ago.

 

If your trying to say that the game will be close, that's fine. Provide some real analysis like Ft Hill's defensive scheme can keep Dunbar from getting outside on their toss sweeps and off tackle runs or Ft Hill offensive will eat up clock and keep Dunbar's offense on the sideline.

 

Hey, I know what TA can do. I've seen him play in the last two championship games, and I've seen him on several highlight videos. I can't wait to see him at the next level. I've seen Perry, Farr, Muse, etc. They are some of the best players to ever play in the state of Maryland - no doubt.

 

Fort Hill has played teams with speed this year - BCC, Douglass, Jefferson (WV), Joppatowne and Boonsboro. On most occasions, Fort Hill has been able to adjust after the first series.

 

If Fort Hill is to have any chance of being in the game, they have to stop the sweeps from huge gains. In Fort Hill/Allegany #1, Allegany abused Fort Hill with the sweep. In Fort Hill/Allegany #2 (two weeks later), Fort Hill made adjustments and stopped the sweeps from gaining major yardage. Fort Hill's defensive front and linebackers are real solid, but the secondary has been at times suspect. Dunbar's ability to pass should be a major concern to Fort Hill's staff.

 

I will guarantee that Fort Hill will be as prepared as possible to defend Dunbar with the real understanding that Dunbar can score "in the blink of an eye."

 

Offensively, Fort Hill has to do what it does best - pound the fullback (200 yards in 33 carries against J-Towne) in the effort to keep Dunbar's offense off the field. Bottom line: Fort Hill has to control the clock. Can they do it? Time will tell, but that is their best chance. At the same time, Fort Hill has to mix it up a bit offensively. They have shown the ability to make offensive adjustments this season; i.e. playing out of the wing-t, the "I" and some "spread." Fort Hill will not panic if they are down if they have to drive 80+ yards for a score with 5 minutes to go in a game. They did this more than once this season.

 

I will say once again - Dunbar is the favorite in this game and they should be. However, if Fort Hill plays the game they are capable of playing this game will be closer than many predict.

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Hey, I know what TA can do. I've seen him play in the last two championship games, and I've seen him on several highlight videos. I can't wait to see him at the next level. I've seen Perry, Farr, Muse, etc. They are some of the best players to ever play in the state of Maryland - no doubt.

 

Fort Hill has played teams with speed this year - BCC, Douglass, Jefferson (WV), Joppatowne and Boonsboro. On most occasions, Fort Hill has been able to adjust after the first series.

 

If Fort Hill is to have any chance of being in the game, they have to stop the sweeps from huge gains. In Fort Hill/Allegany #1, Allegany abused Fort Hill with the sweep. In Fort Hill/Allegany #2 (two weeks later), Fort Hill made adjustments and stopped the sweeps from gaining major yardage. Fort Hill's defensive front and linebackers are real solid, but the secondary has been at times suspect. Dunbar's ability to pass should be a major concern to Fort Hill's staff.

 

I will guarantee that Fort Hill will be as prepared as possible to defend Dunbar with the real understanding that Dunbar can score "in the blink of an eye."

 

Offensively, Fort Hill has to do what it does best - pound the fullback (200 yards in 33 carries against J-Towne) in the effort to keep Dunbar's offense off the field. Bottom line: Fort Hill has to control the clock. Can they do it? Time will tell, but that is their best chance. At the same time, Fort Hill has to mix it up a bit offensively. They have shown the ability to make offensive adjustments this season; i.e. playing out of the wing-t, the "I" and some "spread." Fort Hill will not panic if they are down if they have to drive 80+ yards for a score with 5 minutes to go in a game. They did this more than once this season.

 

I will say once again - Dunbar is the favorite in this game and they should be. However, if Fort Hill plays the game they are capable of playing this game will be closer than many predict.

 

Great post!!

 

Waiting for the Scout 124's report.

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In all honestly, Dunbar whooped up on a team in the semi-finals that would have not made a true 1-16 format...a team that lost to a 1A team in the west region that did not make the playoffs 42-16. The clock will not be running - guaranteed! (If in the end I'm wrong, I will admit it, but I won't until it happens.)

 

The weather should not be a factor in this game; the ten day forecast is calling for temps around 40 and partly sunny skies. A turnover "here or there" or a big play "here or there" could be the determining factors in this game.

 

Dunbar 48 - Catoctin 12

 

a few pointers:

1) Catoctin scored their final touchdown on the final play of the game... no attempt for a 2 pt. conversion and the first one failed.

2) The entire fourth quarter had a) a running clock and B) the 3rd string in for dunbar, scoring one TD in that quarter

 

this also means that the first team defense technically pitched a shutout against Catoctin... and this score could have EASILY been higher had Dunbar not put in their 3rd string in the fourth quarter...

 

Fort Hill may have played teams with speed, but none the calibur of Dunbar...

 

Fort Hill's lone loss - to a single A team from Mineral County in West Virginia (Keyser)... a team who would be humbled by larger schools in WV such as south charleston & morgantown high... two teams that often end up in the West Virginia state finals but still do not match up with a squad with the talent of Dunbar. Jefferson is a bottom tier football school in West Virginia, and I believe Urbana beat them even worse than Fort Hill did.

 

This may be dunbar's best squad out of the past 3 seasons. I predict a running clock.... however, everything will be settled on the field... Good Luck to both Teams.

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Not to split hairs with your facts BMagic, but Keyser is a AA school in WV not single A. They were undefeated throughout the regular season and had the best team they have ever fielded in the past 2 decades. Additionally they beat Allegany. FH fell 13-7 in the rain on a cow pasture and FH gave that game away. That game was also the 2nd game of the season. Alco fell 20-17 on the turf at Greenway. Also, can you tell me the last time South Charleston was in the WV AAA state title game and how many times in the past decade? Until Keyser shot themselves in the foot against Magnolia in the playoffs, they would have given ANY team in WV a run for their money!!

 

Dunbar might very well win, I stop short of saying they will win due to FH pride and the amazing run these Sentinels have had this year. But I promise you one thing undoubtedly there will be NO running clock!!

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Not to split hairs with your facts BMagic, but Keyser is a AA school in WV not single A. They were undefeated throughout the regular season and had the best team they have ever fielded in the past 2 decades. Additionally they beat Allegany. FH fell 13-7 in the rain on a cow pasture and FH gave that game away. That game was also the 2nd game of the season. Alco fell 20-17 on the turf at Greenway. Also, can you tell me the last time South Charleston was in the WV AAA state title game and how many times in the past decade? Until Keyser shot themselves in the foot against Magnolia in the playoffs, they would have given ANY team in WV a run for their money!!

 

Dunbar might very well win, I stop short of saying they will win due to FH pride and the amazing run these Sentinels have had this year. But I promise you one thing undoubtedly there will be NO running clock!!

 

Since you're up in those parts did Morgantown and University win this weekend? I'm pulling for them to meet in the championship. One of the best high school games I ever saw was Morgantown vs. Nitro 2 yrs ago in the championship. Just a little WV talk to make you feel at home fellow Mountaineer.

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I predict that FH will win unless Dunbar scores more points. If Dunbar has more points, there is no doubt in my mind that the Poets will be victorious.

 

:P

 

I'm not predicting anything. All I can do is say what I want, and I want FH to win.

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sherwood will win with a running clock. they dominated the #1 team in the state twice.. they have a great defense and a dual threat offense.

 

i predict west lake will win by 2 touchdowns

 

eastern tech in a very close game

 

and dunbar.

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dunbar is not as good as people think... you put them on the field with bel air and they would poop their pants

their size alone is completely dominant over dunbar

kids like simini would destroy their line

dunbar got lucky this year but next ba will prevail

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Since you're up in those parts did Morgantown and University win this weekend? I'm pulling for them to meet in the championship. One of the best high school games I ever saw was Morgantown vs. Nitro 2 yrs ago in the championship. Just a little WV talk to make you feel at home fellow Mountaineer.

 

Thank you and yes both Motown and University did win this past weekend.

 

Morgantown beat Capital 21-0 and they play #1 seed South Charleston

 

University beat Wheeling Park 21-13 and they play #2 seed Geo Washington.

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dunbar is not as good as people think... you put them on the field with bel air and they would poop their pants

their size alone is completely dominant over dunbar

kids like simini would destroy their line

dunbar got lucky this year but next ba will prevail

 

this is beyond true.. BA will have it all next year and will top any team in the nation

They got Simini- 6 foot 8 345 DE

Malozi- 6 foot 210 RB

Nadolny- 6 foot 4 225 QB

Marienetti- 6 foot 190 WR

OL- everyone over 6 foot 250

DT- both 5 foot 10 200

DE- Simini and Smith who is 6 foot 2 220

DB all amazing

LOOK OUT DUNBAR AND DA REST OF DA NATION!!!!!!!!!!

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